Military

DATE=10/27/00

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=IVORY COAST CRISIS

NUMBER=5-47259

BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN

DATELINE=LONDON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: The political turmoil in Ivory Coast has unsettled many - both inside and outside the West African country. And as V-O-A Correspondent Laurie Kassman reports from London, analysts doubt the inauguration of Laurent Gbagbo will end the crisis.

TEXT: For decades, Ivory Coast was seen as a model of tranquility and prosperity in a region fraught with political conflict. But social and political tensions already were simmering in the early 1990s.

/// OPT /// Austerity measures sponsored by the International Monetary Fund in 1990 sparked labor unrest. A year later, tensions increased after security forces used violence to disperse a student's meeting at the University of Abidjan. /// END OPT ///

The drop in world cocoa prices also robbed Ivory Coast of one its main pillars of economic prosperity.

The 1993 death of Felix Houphuet-Boigny - who had ruled Ivory Coast for more than 30 years - opened the way for longtime political rivalries to upset the delicate balance of power.

Henri Bedie, who assumed power after Mr. Houphuet-Boigny's death, became synonymous with mismanagement and corruption. He stirred up xenophobia aimed at Muslim northerners to fend off his political rivals.

So, when General Robert Guei ousted Mr. Bedie in a relatively bloodless coup last December, few expressed disappointment. But the first-ever military coup there stunned many inside and outside a country long known as a haven of stability.

Africa analyst Comfort Ero of Kings College Defense Studies Center in London says another surprise came when General Guei reversed his self-declared plan to return Ivory Coast quickly to civilian rule and tried to hold onto power himself.

/// ERO ACT 1 ///

A lot of people are saying he sensed power and tasted what it's like to be in the realm of politics and he wanted to keep that position.

/// END ACT ///

Now, ten months later, Mr. Guei himself has been removed from power by a popular uprising similar to the ouster of Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic.

Mr. Guei's election rival, Laurent Gbagbo, has been inaugurated as president and is trying to set up a national unity administration.

Many governments, like the United States, question Mr. Gbagbo's legitimacy after a flawed election in which only two-million out of a population of 15-million actually cast a ballot.

Supporters of his chief rival, Alassane Outtara, have led violent protests to call for new elections. The popular Mr. Outtara was barred by a revised constitution from running, on the grounds he is not 100 percent Ivoirian.

/// OPT /// The street clashes have taken on ethnic and religious overtones with Mr. Outtara's northern Muslim supporters complaining that Christians from the south do not want to share power. /// END OPT ///

Analyst Linda de Souza monitors West African politics for the London-based Economist Intelligence Unit. She says the crisis is far from over and questions the benefit of new elections right now.

/// DE SOUZA ACT 1 ///

The very foundations of Ivoirian society have been rocked tremendously over the past several months by this mixture of xenophobia and growing religious intolerance. And, while I think there should be a level playing field, I wonder if you do have a stable social climate for another election in the short term.

/// END ACT ///

Analyst Comfort Ero says the political upheaval also has unsettled neighboring leaders who looked at Ivory Coast as a model of unity. They also fear a potential flood of refugees if the crisis is not resolved.

/// ERO ACT 2 ///

Ivory Coast was a rare situation in Africa, one of the few countries that hadn't experienced a coup. In a regional that experienced it (coups), Ivory Coast was seen in a rare position and a country worth aspiring to (a model). And now it's just joined the club. That has unsettled a lot of the leaders.

/// END ACT ///

Analysts like Linda de Souza also worries about the economic impact of political instability.

/// DE SOUZA ACT 2 ///

All the international donors made a condition that you have free and fair elections and restoration of democracy before any aid was resumed. I don't know what their reaction is going to be, but I would doubt that they would readily resume any aid program.

/// END ACT ///

Ms. de Souza says the loss of confidence among international lenders and investors also diminishes Ivory Coast's economic standing and only fuels more instability and discontent. (Signed)

NEB/LMK/GE/JWH