Military

DATE=10/26/00

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=After Oslo

NUMBER=5-47246

BYLINE=Ed Warner

DATELINE=Washington

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

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INTRO: For seven years, Israelis and Palestinians have tried to reach a settlement satisfactory to both sides under the Oslo peace process, named for the Norwegian city where the talks originated. With the latest outbreak of violence in the West Bank and Gaza, negotiations collapsed and many on both sides do not expect them to be revived. V-O-A's Ed Warner reports on some views of what may follow in the crisis atmosphere.

TEXT: Analysts agree the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has reached a turning point. At a discussion held at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University, participants said there was no going back to the Oslo framework and offered a variety of views on what will come next.

Clovis Maksoud, director of the Center for Global South at American University, said Oslo was addicted to process rather than to peace. There was more discussion than negotiation, he said, with the Palestinians spelling out a wish list that had little relation to reality.

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In a way, they were commentators on the controlling power of Israel, and in that respect the accumulating frustrations, the disillusionment with the peace process, culminated in the (Ariel) Sharon visit, which was only the tip of the iceberg.

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Professor Maksoud said he has been a severe critic of Yasser Arafat, but the Palestinian leader should not be made a scapegoat for the breakdown of the peace process.

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Trying to shift the blame and personalize it on him is an easy way out, an alternative to inquiring into the real reasons why this flawed and faulty peace process unraveled in the manner that it has in the last three or four weeks.

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The former ambassador of the Arab League to the United States, Mr. Maksoud said the organization has not helped much. It was intent on defusing Arab anger rather than harnessing it on behalf of Palestinians. In his opinion, the member states fear both their own people who might get out of control and the United States.

The U-S role is now diminished, said Khalil Jahshan, vice president of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee. He wondered why there has never been a serious U-S inquiry into the Oslo process:

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Usually, Congress every couple of years holds a hearing. We have not had a serious hearing on this peace process, which is described as the number one strategic objective of the United States in the Middle East.

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Graham Fuller of the Rand Corporation and a former top C-I-A analyst said the United States can no longer be the sole mediator in the conflict:

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Washington contributed a lot, but for many different complex reasons - the fractured nature of much of our foreign policy focus - I think we are not able to sustain the monopoly over this any more. Other parties are going to try to insure that the United States does not maintain that monopoly.

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Some European states will insist on getting involved, said Mr. Fuller, and that will be welcomed by Arab nations. Saudi Arabia has never been more critical of U-S policy, and we can expect increasing candor in the days ahead.

Mr. Fuller added that an alarming result of the crisis is the seeming collapse of the Israeli left:

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I would argue that the Israeli left has been a very critical force in bringing along a change of mood not only inside Israel but within the United States itself and among the Jewish community here. There has been a strong, respectable left that has spoken up and been able to support a greater balance in the peace process than we might have had otherwise.

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That decline, said Graham Fuller, contributes to a hardening of positions on both sides, making a settlement still more difficult. (signed)

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