Military

DATE=10/20/00

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=MIDEAST / VIOLENCE

NUMBER=5-47210

BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN

DATELINE=LONDON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Continuing violence between Israelis and Palestinians has soured the atmosphere for the resumption of serious peace negotiations. The change of U-S administrations will also interrupt U-S mediation efforts. Correspondent Laurie Kassman in London looks at the dwindling prospects for peace any time soon.

TEXT: The prospect of renewing serious peace negotiations has lost its appeal for a growing number of Israelis and Palestinians, stunned and disillusioned by the latest bloody wave of violence.

The director of London's Institute for Strategic Studies, John Chipman, says the recent violence highlights the fragility of the peace process. It also puts a hold on any progress achieved at the Camp David peace summit last July.

/// CHIPMAN ACT ///

Many of the assumptions of the earlier Camp David process have been severely challenged by the present difficulties - security cooperation between Israeli and Palestinians' police forces, the provision of security for each other's holy sites, the prospect of Palestinian refugees living within Israeli borders or of Israeli settlements continuing under Palestinian sovereignty. All of these have been thrown into question by recent events.

/// END ACT ///

The violence also has damaged the popularity of both Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, and makes it more difficult for them to face each other across the negotiating table.

Middle East analyst Rosemary Hollis of the Royal Institute of International Affairs says both sides need time to reconsider their positions.

/// HOLLIS ACT ///

The Israelis are regrouping. What is the point of a deal if Barak cannot deliver? And, in order to re-identify with the Israeli population, he has to respond to the bruised, pained disillusioned mood that has overtaken the Israelis. So he can't come up again with what he was apparently mooting in Camp David any time soon. And Arafat, if he is to survive, has to be in tune with the anger and frustration and the desire for a fight, as opposed to a chat, that you have on the Palestinian side.

/// END ACT ///

Ms. Hollis adds that the American peace team - which is playing a pivotal role in the negotiations - can only deal with damage control politics until the next U-S administration sets up a new mediation team.

Arab leaders in the region also find it harder now to press openly for peace as they see the wave of anti-Israel rage spilling onto their own streets.

Middle East analyst Steve Simon of the Strategic Studies Institute says regional leaders cannot afford to brush aside public opinion.

/// SIMON ACT ///

We're not looking at democracies in the Western sense, but we are looking at governments that do pay close attention to public opinion.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Simon adds that one aim of an Arab summit this weekend is to respond to public passions simmering in the street as people watch for some action by their leaders.

Few see the street clashes in the West Bank and Gaza ending, despite pledges on both sides to curb the violence. Most analysts predict the violence will also fuel more terrorist attacks both inside and outside the region.

Still, Middle East watchers suggest some form of peace talks must resume, even at a low level - to bolster the declared willingness of both sides to continue the dialogue. (Signed)

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