Military

DATE=10/18/00

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=ANGOLA / PROSPECTS FOR PEACE

NUMBER=5-47187

BYLINE=CHALLISS McDONOUGH

DATELINE=LUANDA, ANGOLA

INTERNET=YES

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Three-years ago, the warring parties in Angola were at least nominally at peace. After nearly 30-years of conflict, the peace process known as the Lusaka Protocol had brought UNITA rebels out of the bush and into a government of national unity. But the accord quickly fell apart, and UNITA declared all-out war again in December of 1998. As Southern Africa Correspondent Challiss McDonough reports from Luanda, today peace and prosperity appear far off.

TEXT: What started as a cold-war face-off between ideological foes has become an out-and-out battle for Angola's bounty of natural resources. Few people in Angola will talk on record about the economic forces fueling their civil war - the oil revenues from offshore drilling platforms and the sparkling harvest of diamond mines.

But when the tape recorder is turned off, analysts, diplomats and other onlookers say both sides are making money from the war - so much money, they have little interest in pursuing a genuine peace.

Despite international sanctions, UNITA is still able to get its illegally mined diamonds onto the international market, arming itself with the proceeds. And analysts say the government has long used the war as an excuse to avoid the democratic and free-market reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund.

But under both domestic and international pressure, things are changing. The diamond industry has taken steps toward really ridding the market of UNITA gems. In a deal with the I-M-F made public in July, the government has promised to open its oil accounts to international scrutiny for the first time. And there are increasing demands from Angolan civil society for an end to the war.

The nature of the conflict itself has also changed. A surge in oil prices has helped the government fund its offensive against UNITA. Government troops have taken control of most of the country's major cities. That has forced a change in UNITA strategy - the rebels have all but abandoned conventional tactics in favor of guerilla warfare, attacking at random and then melting away into the bush.

The Roman Catholic bishop of war-ravaged Bie province says he doubts there will be peace anytime soon. Bishop Don Jose Nambi says the shift toward guerilla tactics means long-term instability in the rural areas.

/// BISHOP ACT IN PORTUGUESE, ESTABLISH & FADE ///

He says, for me right now, I think the war is just a business, and that is why (peace) is taking so long. But, he says, we as Christians think dialogue is the easiest and fastest way to attain peace, because there is just no way you can resolve any conflict without talking to the other side.

The bishop also says the fuzzy battlelines of the guerilla conflict have led to serious violations of human rights - by both sides.

/// BISHOP ACT TWO IN PORTUGUESE, ESTABLISH & FADE ///

He says when UNITA forces come into a borderline area, they assume the people are government supporters and kill them. He says the government forces do the same thing, they just presume everyone is from the UNITA side. He says there is no justice, and nobody will be punished for this.

The bishop says a lot of civilians are dying for no reason, just because they happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Aid workers say people are desperate just to escape the fighting. Leo Pavillard heads the U-N Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Angola. He says in rural areas, political alliances do not really matter anymore.

/// PAVILLARD ACT ///

The local people ... see a man in uniform. They do not know who he is, whether he is government or UNITA. All they know is that a man in uniform kills. It is a horrible situation. And so they run!

/// END ACT ///

One government minister estimates that fighting has displaced up to four-million people - about one-third of Angola's population. Official figures are lower than that, but the fact remains that because of the war, a huge number of people simply cannot go home. And nobody seems particularly optimistic that they will be able to soon. (SIGNED)

NEB/CEM/KL/RAE