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DATE=10/12/00

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=Central Asia Security

BYLINE=Ali Jalali

DATELINE=Almaty

CONTENT=

(ACTUALITIES IN THE BUBBLE)

NOT VOICED:

INTRO: This week (October 11) in Bishkek, the presidents of Russia, Belarus, Armenia and the Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan agreed to create a new system of regional security in Central Asia to stem the flow of religious extremism and drug trafficking. They also called for an international solution to the civil war in Afghanistan which could destabilize neighboring countries. V-O-A's Ali Jalali in Almaty looks at security challenges facing Central Asia and the region's ability to respond to them.

TEXT: The agreement reached in Bishkek is seen as containing the first concrete measures by the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty since the pact was established in 1992. It calls for each of the member states to create special military groups for joint military actions against potential threats.

Until now, analysts say, conflicting policies and perceptions of security threats among the states have hindered a collective security effort.

Recent violence in the region by Muslim militants, allegedly trained in Taleban-controlled areas of Afghanistan, is cited as a reason for taking urgent action to protect the southern border of the Commonwealth of Independent States (C-I-S).

Kazakhstani political analyst Dimitry Batsiev says the instability in Afghanistan is a common threat to the entire region.

/// BATSIEV'S RUSSIAN ACT FADE UNDER ///

He says the security problems in Central Asia are the consequence of the situation in Afghanistan, and Taleban control over the entire Afghan territory would create a far greater threat to the region.

But other Central Asian analysts say security challenges in the region are more complex.

Professor Doulatbek Khidirbekughli (Dah-wo-laht-bek Kheh-Dir-Oglee) of Kazakh-American University says the impact of Taleban-inspired religious extremism in Central Asia is closely linked to conditions in the region.

/// KHIDIRBEKUGHLI ACT ///

The threat to security is not the same for all countries in Central Asia. Some states like Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, are considered the front-line states exposed to religious extremism sponsored by foreign countries. Other Central Asian states, like Kazakhstan, are threatened because of their proximity to the front-line states. But the long-term security threats in the region are internal, and stem from social problems, poverty and corruption that create a fertile soil for the growth of extremism and terrorism.

/// END ACT ///

Differing perceptions about potential threats to Central Asia so far have blocked the emergence of a cohesive strategy of collective security. The Bishkek agreement comes amidst reports that Uzbekistan - the most populous Central Asian state and the hardest hit by religious and political violence - has opened stabilization talks with the Taleban. Professor Khidirbekughli says the move might help defuse tension on the Afghan-Central Asian border. He says Turkmenistan's untroubled relations with Taleban-ruled Afghanistan has set a clear example of peaceful coexistence.

But others, such as Mr. Batsiev, argue that Uzbekistan would have little chance of finding common ground with the Taleban. He says Tashkent's move may give some level of legitimacy to the Taleban, which the international community seeks to isolate.

Many Central Asian observers say collective response to security threats has been hindered by individual states' competing policies. For example, long-standing mistrust has driven Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to seek closer strategic partnership with Russia, which Uzbekistan traditionally eyed with suspicion. Uzbekistan has the strongest security presence in the area, and Russia is essentially the only state with the potential to check Uzbekistan's influence. However, the observers say, Uzbekistan is not happy seeing Russia compete for influence in an area Tashkent considers its strategic turf.

Mr. Batsiev expects that Uzbekistan eventually will rejoin the Collective Security Treaty if the threats become more acute. Last year, he says, the dramatic rise in political violence in Central Asia and the Caucasus brought Moscow and Uzbekistan into a closer security partnership. But Professor Khidirbekughli disagrees. He says Uzbekistan intends to deal with Russia on the basis of bilateral relations and not through a Russian-dominated multi-lateral pact.

Both analysts agree that a long-term response to security challenges in Central Asia would require measures to enhance economic development, create jobs for millions of unemployed youth and promote dialogue among the peoples across the region. (SIGNED)

NEB/AJ/TDW