DATE=10/05/00
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=YUGOSLAVIA / CONFUSION
NUMBER=5-47116
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Anti-Milosevic demonstrations are spreading and turning violent after Yugoslavia's Constitutional Court annulled the presidential elections. The opposition candidate, Vojislav Kostunica, insists he won a clear-cut victory over President Slobodan Milosevic. Western allies denounced the court ruling and support the opposition's claims. Correspondent Laurie Kassman looks at the deepening political crisis.
TEXT: British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook has described the spread of anti-Milosevic protests as a sure indication that Mr. Milosevic's days in power are numbered.
/// COOK ACT ///
If Milosevic dares to go his window today, he will see for himself that Serbs want him out. Milosevic must go. The only question now is how and when he goes. The longer he postpones his departure, the longer will be the disruption to which he condemns Serbia.
/// END ACT ///
But, President Milosevic has not yet been willing to release his grip on power.
/// OPT /// Last week, the Federal Electoral Commission announced the need for a second round of voting, despite the opposition's claims of outright victory - a claim supported by the U-S and European governments. The Constitutional Court annulled the election Wednesday and ruled that a new presidential election is required.
Secretary of State Madeline Albright has denounced the Court's ruling. She calls it another attempt to thwart the will of the Serb people. /// END OPT ///
Analysts and diplomats agree that there is little the West can do but watch from the sidelines. Balkans analyst Hans Stark of the Paris-based Institute of International Relations says the West can only increase its pressure on Mr. Milosevic and repeat its support for his opponents.
/// STARK ACT ///
There will be an escalation of violence, certainly, of clashes. And the West does not have so many things to do. Our role is not to intervene in the internal Serbian affairs. And the Serbs don't want us to intervene. The only thing we can do is show our solidarity with Mr. Kostunica.
/// END ACT ///
The West has shown its support for Mr. Kostunica through promises that crippling economic and diplomatic sanctions would be lifted when Mr.Kostunica becomes president.
Dana Allin is monitoring the Yugoslav developments at London's Institute of International and Strategic Studies. He warns the West should never underestimate Mr. Milosevic.
/// ALLIN ACT ///
He is a very resourceful man who has seemed to be on the verge of defeat before and has then pulled yet another rabbit out of his hat.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT /// Analyst Hans Stark agrees Mr. Milosevic is most dangerous when he is desperate.
/// STARK ACT 2 // OPT ///
What Milosevic wants is two things. First he wants to remain in power at any price. Second, he is using any kind of instrument to reach his objective.
/// END OPT ACT // END OPT ///
Anti-Milosevic demonstrations are spreading. Analysts echo newspaper headlines that describe the Yugoslav situation as a revolution similar to the 1989 uprising that ended the Ceaucescu regime in Romania.
Balkans analyst Hans Stark says that - like the former Romanian ruler - a desperate Slobodan Milosevic is watching the machinery of his power crumble and his options for survival dwindle.
/// STARK ACT THREE ///
If he remains in Serbia, not being president any more, he risks to be put into prison for what he has done. And if he goes to another country he risks going to prison for his war crimes. So he has no other choice than to remain in power.
/// END ACT ///
Analysts warn Mr. Milosevic would not hesitate to use force to stay in office until his term expires next June. The question they now ask is whether the Yugoslav leader has support left within his own power circle to carry out such an action. (SIGNED)
NEB/LMK/GE/RAE
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