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Commentary from ... Europe East Asia Western Hemisphere |
| September 27, 2000 FRY Elections: 'Victory Snatched' From Opposition |
The Yugoslav federal election commission's announcement that neither Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic nor opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica received a majority of votes in Sunday's election, thus requiring a run-off round, was greeted with consternation by a majority of observers in Europe, Asia and Canada. Editorialists raised concerns that the vote tally may have been manipulated, and contended that the call for a new round is a "delaying tactic" on the part of the Belgrade regime. They warned that the Serbian strongman is determined to "buy some time" in order to unleash "mayhem" aimed at keeping him in power. Weighing Mr. Kostunica's options, many analysts, nonetheless, believed he should participate in the run-off, and that he would still prevail. London's conservative Times observed: "If Mr. Kostunica refuses to run (in a second round), he will automatically concede to Mr. Milosevic. He would then have to take his fight to the streets and attempt to topple his rival through popular protest." Assessments regarding the near and long-term future of FRY were mixed. A number of opinionmakers viewed the election episode as a positive development for Yugoslavia, seeing the popular support for the opposition as an indication of the Serbian people's desire to "break with the past." But others were less hopeful that changes were forthcoming, pointing out a number of obstacles blocking FRY's democratic future--the first one being actions that Mr. Milosevic himself might take to hold on to power. Highlights:
'TWO WEEKS TO CREATE A CRISIS': A majority of analysts worried that in the intervening days before the October 8 run-off, President Milosevic has two weeks in which he can, in the words of Madrid's independent El Mundo, "plan a thousand and one ways to provoke a crisis that prevents a second round of voting from taking place." Commentators were especially concerned that an explosion in Montenegro could create the "perfect excuse."
RUSSIA'S IMPORTANCE: Several commentators focused on the important role Russia plays in the region. Many noted that Russian President Putin has "quietly" distanced himself from the Milosevic regime. Opinionmakers inside and outside Russia contended that Mr. Milosevic is no longer "useful" to the Kremlin.
'HYPOCRITICAL' U.S, EUROPE: A few media voices were critical of the U.S. and Europe. Negative assessments continued to emanate from official media in Vietnam and a few official and centrist papers in Russia. These critics lambasted the West for its "bias" against the Belgrade regime and its "intervention" in the electoral process. Meanwhile, a Canadian daily pointed out that the West was being hypocritical for "accepting the results of an unfair voting process simply because the opposition prevailed.... An election is either fair or it is not; its legitimacy doesn't change because the 'good guy' won."
EDITOR: Diana McCaffrey
EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 55 reports from 21 countries, September 26-27. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.
BRITAIN: "Milosevic Hands Victorious Rival A Poisoned Chalice"
The conservative Times reported (9/27): "If Mr. Kostunica refuses to run (in a second round October 8), he will automatically concede to Mr. Milosevic. He would then have to take his fight to the streets and attempt to topple his rival through popular protest.... With tensions heightened, Mr. Milosevic has remained out of public view and is believed to be locked in crisis talks with his top advisers on the best way to survive the biggest challenge ever mounted to his rule. He has two weeks in which to threaten those who failed to back him in the first round. He runs the risk of being regarded by even his most loyal supporters as a political liability who no longer has a popular mandate to govern."
"'Gotov Je' (He's Finished)"
The centrist Independent had this report from Belgrade (9/27): "The stickers are plastered everywhere across the center of Belgrade. After the dramatic concession by the government electoral commission that Slobodan Milosevic had been beaten in Sunday's election, it is now a matter of seeing if and how the phrase can move from neat slogan to tangible reality. But, with classic Balkan slipperiness, Mr. Milosevic has moved to buy himself some time.... As it sank in that an historical electoral victory was being snatched from the opposition's grasp, the celebratory mood of people on the streets turned to anger. These are days of both fear and hope. The fear is understandable, with a widespread concern that in the build-up to a run-off vote, Mr. Milosevic could yet unleash mayhem to keep in power. The sense of finality, however, is everywhere. If the edifice collapses from the inside, some believe in the ultimate miracle--that Serbia might even get away without bloodshed."
"Russia Moves To Ditch Old Ally"
The liberal Guardian had this report from Moscow (9/27): "The Kremlin was quietly preparing yesterday to bid good riddance to Slobodan Milosevic after ten years of watching the Serbian strongman exploit notions of Slav and Orthodox brotherhood to drive wedges between Moscow and the West. While guarded and evenhanded in its reaction to the potentially seismic shift in the Balkans, Moscow made it clear it would not be disappointed by a new president in Belgrade. Mr. Milosevic's mounting woes at home were compounded by the fact that his most important, if ambivalent, international ally was walking away, apparently no longer seeing the Yugoslav state and his regime as synonymous."
"Will Milosevic Go?"
Edinburgh's independent Scotsman editorialized (9/26): "The predicted toppling, at the ballot box, of Slobodan Milosevic offers the sudden possibility of an end to strife in the Balkans. What matters is the attitude of Russia. If, as expected, Mr. Milosevic simply rewrites the election, it will be vital for Moscow, his only friend, to denounce him. Were Moscow to offer its support, Mr. Milosevic would be free to use whatever violence was needed to suppress demonstrations and protest. Granted, Russia has much to fear from a Milosevic defeat. It would effectively surrender influence in the Balkans, seeing the power of Western money lure the Serbs, as it has lured everyone else in the region, into the arms of the United States. Yet something else is at stake: Russia's claim that it has a right to sit at the international table because it is committed to democracy. Moscow is desperate to convince the world that it supports free elections--after all, it needs Western business and multi-billion dollar loans to shore up its crumbling economy. To get this support, it must now put its money where its mouth is, declaring that it will join in world action to freeze out any attempt by Mr. Milosevic to impose his rule by force."
FRANCE: "Milosevic Won Some Time"
Renaud Girard wrote from Belgrade in right-of-center Le Figaro (9/27): "Two days after the presidential and legislative elections, the FRY electoral commission announced there was no majority, thus there will be a second election on October 8. The commission recognized that Milosevic was behind in the race on Sunday. Kostunica had 48.22 percent of the votes against Milosevic's 40.23 percent. Kostunica immediately rejected the figures, 'It is a proposal which can and should be rejected, for it insults all the citizens of this country who voted. Particularly the 2.5 million electors who chose the political position in which I represent.' Kostunica called Milosevic's proposal 'obvious fraud' and said the electoral commission has participated in 'political swindling.'"
GERMANY: "What Moscow Says"
Guenter Nonnenmacher said in an editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (9/27): "With delaying tactics, the Milosevic regime is trying to survive the triumphant parades with which the Serbian opposition celebrates its election victory.... This power struggle is being waged in Serbia and must be decided in Serbia. The world abroad has only a minor influence on the events. But in a situation when everything hangs in the balance, it is important not to send false signals to the ruler in Belgrade. We assume that, in order to make this clear, Chancellor Schroeder flew to Moscow for a few hours. At issue was Moscow's reaction to the elections in rump-Yugoslavia. It does not contain a single word that Milosevic could interpret as supportive.... More could not be expected from Putin. Even the Russians seem to have realized that the Serbian dictator is not a useful spoilsport for them but an internationally ostracized man who should be eliminated as soon as possible. But, as we said before, it is the Serbs who must oust him."
"Europe's Castle In The Air For Serbia"
Peter Muench opined in an editorial in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (9/27): "Europe must now keep its word. Last week, 15 European foreign ministers...offered support and rescue to the Serbian people once they break with Slobodan Milosevic.... The Serbs have now fulfilled their part of the agreement...and since the foreign ministers of the EU are honorable men, they must now redeem their promise. That is why the French EU presidency called for a lifting of sanctions on Serbia. There is no doubt that this move is considered a signal to the Serbs, and basically, it is the right signal...but it comes at the wrong time. It has been sent out at a time when nobody knows how Milosevic will react to the outcome of the elections. It is mysterious why the French now move ahead instead of waiting for another two days until the situation has clarified. Those who presuppose now that Milosevic was defeated in the elections are vigorously and with technical finesse building a castle in the air."
"Balkans Will Remain Trouble Spot"
Centrist Leipziger Volkszeitung commented (9/27): "The West and the opposition in Belgrade have only one goal: getting rid of Milosevic. But it is by no means clear what will follow. Thus far, the opposition has always managed to end up at odds with each other. Time will tell whether Kostunica will succeed in keeping an alliance of 18 parties together. But it is clear that he can expect Western support. And Europe can expect the Balkans to remain a trouble spot for a long time to come."
"Manipulation Of Elections Will Soon Be Discovered"
Right-of-center Saechsische Zeitung of Dresden said (9/27): "Obviously, Milosevic is weakened not only politically, but he must also fear that manipulations will soon be discovered. This is why Kostunica has a good chance to win the run-off elections on October 8. The West can help him: by taking a realistic look at the outcome of the elections and by helping in cooperation with Russia, to prevent an escalation of the situation. Sanctions against Yugoslavia should now also be lifted, since the voters sent a clear signal against Milosevic. The West should not disappoint them now."
ITALY: "Washington Accuses: This Electoral Count Is Fraud"
A report from Zagreb in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera held (9/27): "The U.S. Department of State has no doubts: The official count of the vote which has just ended in Yugoslavia is a fraud.... Washington is monitoring very closely post-election developments. And Belgrade had no problem in labeling the presence of the Sixth Fleet in the Adriatic Sea as 'interference and an attempt to intimidate us.'" The article goes on to describe the U.S.-Croatian joint naval exercises off the Croatian coast, noting Croatian and U.S. official statements that the exercises have nothing to do with the FRY elections."
"Washington, Clinton More Cautious Than Allied Leaders"
Andrea di Robilant wrote in centrist, influential La Stampa (9/27): "In a carefully weighed speech--in which he praised the will expressed by the Serbian people--President Clinton was also careful not to explicitly ask Milosevic to leave. Clinton gave his speech just before Serbian TV announced a second ballot. And the U.S. government continues to move more cautiously than some European allies, waiting to get a better understanding of Milosevic's intentions.... The impression is that the Clinton administration does not want to totally compromise relations with Milosevic at a time when the Yugoslav president seems to admit defeat on the one hand, while on the other seems intent on gaining time in order to prepare a dignified exit from the scene. A part of the administration aims most of all at facilitating a democratic transition in Belgrade, while another part, led by Secretary Albright, pushes for a tougher line towards Milosevic."
"Europe Vis-à-vis The Rebus Of Sanctions"
Andrea Bonanni wrote from Brussels in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (9/27): "The announcement of a second round for the presidency of Yugoslavia...certainly creates serious problems for the European governments and the United States, which are called upon to decide how to react.... At the present time, the sanctions risk turning into a double-edged weapon."
"Kostunica With Serbian Gangs In Kosovo"
A report from Pristina in rightist Il Tempo held (9/27): "The man whom the West views as the possible great reformer of Serbia is hated in Pristina at least as much as Slobodan Milosevic. While rumors from Belgrade indicate that Kostunica is the likely winner of the race for the presidency, the Albanians in Kosovo openly reject him for the first time. And they accuse him of the most serious sin one can accuse a Serb of: to have been at the side of the paramilitary gangs responsible for the crimes against the civilian population during the NATO bombings. A photograph in the Koha Ditore daily, published last September 7, portrays an unusual Kostunica with a gun in his hands next to a man with the greenish uniform of paramilitary troops."
RUSSIA: "Slobo Test"
Reformist, business-oriented Vedomosti (9/27) published this comment by Vitaly Portnikov: "Excited by the post-election hullabaloo in Yugoslavia, the West is determined to overthrow the Milosevic regime and hand over the war criminal to The Hague Tribunal. Milosevic, who enjoys ruling the Serbs, is determined to stay in power. The West is right--today's Serbia is what the Soviet history books called a revolutionary situation.... It's all very nice, toppling Milosevic in the name of the people, but as the West sets out to do so, it will have to face the Kremlin. Apparently, Chancellor Schroeder's visit to Moscow the other day was to comfort Putin and even to offer economic aid for his consenting to the collapse of the Belgrade regime. I would opt for aid. Milosevic is doomed, anyway. He is no longer in control. If he should stay, he would not be legitimate even in the eyes of his own 'nomenklatura.' It is also essential that Moscow gives up support for Milosevic because the Russians should start getting used to the idea that they have no allies in the Balkans anymore. One myth less."
"U.S. Wants Milosevic Tried"
Dmitry Gornostayev said in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (9/27): "There is reason to believe that Milosevic may admit his defeat and relinquish power if the opposition wins.... In the hilarious statements by representatives of foreign countries, no direct commitments have been made that the sanctions will be lifted following the victory of the opposition. As the first step, the U.S. administration is likely to demand that the new Yugoslav authorities turn over Milosevic to The Hague Tribunal. While nobody says so, everybody knows it."
"Some Political Culture"
Anatoly Kurganov lamented in official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (9/27): "Bias and aggression. This is what it is. It has nothing to do with political culture and true democracy. That the West should mount such an unbridled attack on Milosevic and his long-suffering country is unheard-of in the world. By being in a rush and partial, the West may provoke a confrontation fraught with terrible consequences. Far-sighted politicians (Italian Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini is one of them) think it is myopic to write off a political heavyweight like Milosevic."
"West Rejects Real Vote Outcome"
Centrist army Krasnaya Zvezda ran this by Yuri Pankov (9/27): "Statements by Western leaders show that they won't accept the real results of the vote.... They have made it clear that for Serbia to regain its proper place in Europe, as well as Kosovo, it should submit to the EU's opinion as to who should become a new president of Yugoslavia."
"Kostunica No Antipode Of Milosevic"
Aleksandr Ivanitsky had this to say in reformist Noviye Izvestiya (9/27): "It is like tired poker players suddenly deciding to play vint [card game]--while the cards are the same, their meaning and value are quite different. The Democrats are a motley crew,possibly short-lived. Their leader Kostunica, the president's rival and probable heir, is not his antipode. He is not averse to the idea of 'Greater Serbia' and sees eye-to-eye with Milosevic on Montenegro, Bosnia and Kosovo. Basically, that plays into Moscow's hand by sparing its only ally in Europe, though not for long. It would be bad if Milosevic should go for broke and proclaim himself the winner. It would spell a civil war and intervention, ultimately taking Serbia away from Russia."
BELGIUM: "Hope For Second Round Soon"
Paul De Bruyn held in conservative Catholic Gazet van Antwerpen (9/27): "Milosevic doesn't care that the Americans and Europeans insist on his resignation. Milosevic has received blows many times before and committed blunders that brought endless misery to his country--but, he is still in power.... It is quite possible that he will postpone the second election round for an indefinite period of time--while he tries to exhaust his opponents with the hope that the 18-member opposition coalition implodes.... The fact that consequences of that strategy may be catastrophic for Yugoslavia is of no concern to him.... If Milosevic clings to power at any price, violence is likely to break out. The only positive element in that scenario is that a civil war is ruled out because the opposition lacks weapons.... Let's hope that there is a second election round soon and that even fraud will not prevent Milosevic from being voted away. In that case, Kostunica and the opposition must be able to form a government. But, are they strong enough to do that? Nobody knows, but there is no alternative. Otherwise, Yugoslavia will remain at the mercy of the whims of a dictator who has nothing to lose anymore."
"Moscow's Hesitations"
Russian correspondent Boris Toumanov wrote in independent La Libre Belgique (9/27): "In spite of his tacit agreement with the West's position, Mr. Putin could still be the victim of Slobodan Milosevic's tricks.... The discreet character of this agreement with the West seems to indicate that Mr. Putin must reckon with the Russian population's pro-Serbian feelings which were revived by NATO's intervention in Yugoslavia.... In this context, Moscow can only pray that Slobodan Milosevic will not resort to violent methods which might trigger a Western military intervention, in which case Russian-Western relations will be harmed again without Russia winning anything in Yugoslavia."
"Lift The Sanctions"
Edouard Van Velthem editorialized in left-of-center Le Soir (9/27): "Pragmatic people will, rightfully so, regret that the international community hurried to judge that Milosevic had lost and to increase pressure on him. Even inexperienced diplomats know that to make a dictatorship back down via other means than violence or confrontation, one needs to have exceptional skills, an acute political sense, and a perfect psychological command. Forcing a dictatorship against a wall, with no way out, is the best way to force it to make mistakes. And before civil war becomes his ultimate option, Milosevic still has a trump card in his pocket: the destabilization of Montenegro, a prospect which puts NATO experts in a cold sweat. Rather than hinting at developments which they will only consider as a very last resort--a military intervention--Western chanceries must be ready to take urgent measures. If the fog clears, the sanctions will need to be lifted at once. So far, lifting the sanctions would be the best way to help end the country's isolation and the population's skepticism. By their massive turnout in this election, the Serbian people have sent a double message. They indicated their desire for change, of course, and their need of oxygen after over a decade as a besieged fortress. But they also indicated their choice to reintegrate into the great European family, where their country can take back the place it deserves."
"Time To Cry Victory Has Not Begun Yet"
Frank Schloemer wrote in independent De Morgen (9/27): "The time to cry victory has not begun yet--although some Serbs seem to think that." Noting that Milosevic and his clan and family have a strong grip on the economy, energy sector, state companies, media, the repression apparatus, army, etc., Schloemer concluded: "One must not be surprised that most members of the Milosevic clan--as is the case in many non-democratic regimes--possess houses abroad and, probably, foreign bank accounts, should it come to that. The Milosevic couple--ironically Slobo means 'freedom' and Mira means 'peace'--head a vast empire that won't be easy for any successor to dismantle, especially because most things fell into the hands of the Milosevic clan during the post-Communist privatization process."
"Last Communist Domino Teetering"
Ludwig De Vocht opined in business-oriented De Financieel-Economische Tijd (9/27): "Eleven years after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of Communist regimes in Eastern Europe, the last domino is teetering in Belgrade. By taking a nationalist direction, Milosevic had more than ten years respite. Today, however, the autumn has come. Before undertaking a desperate attempt to stay in power, Milosevic had better remember how the Romanians settled their account with Ceaucescu."
"Kostunica No Softie, But A Genuine Democrat"
Axel Buyse observed in independent Catholic De Standaard (9/27): "The neat 56-year-old judicial expert from Belgrade--who probably won the presidential elections in Yugoslavia on Sunday--is not a man of compromises. All those you ask in Belgrade about Kostunica agree on one thing: Kostunica is a man of integrity. And, Kostunica is a Serbian nationalist.... The man who should by rights take over the presidency in Yugoslavia is no softie. He will be a hard nut for the West to crack. There is also the issue that, after the departure of Milosevic, there will not be an automatic rebalancing and Serbian nationalism may remain at the foundation.... That may be part of the best price that Europe and the West can get for a definitive stabilization of the Balkans. It is another question, however, how [this nationalism] can be integrated with the interests of the other nations in the Balkans. So, Kostunica is not a pushover. But, on the other hand...the leader of the Serbian Democratic Party is a genuine democrat, an honest man, and a politician who means what he says--a quality which most Serbian politicians, regardless of idelogy, lack."
"Milosevic Must First Fear His Own People"
Edouard Van Velthem speculated in left-of-center Le Soir (9/27) on Slobodan Milosevic's fate. He reported that, although ICTY Prosecutor Carla del Ponte said that the answer was easy--bringing him to The Hague to be tried--diplomats were also looking for other ways to get out of the crisis, such as granting him asylum and impunity in exchange for a peaceful withdrawal. Van Velthem concluded: "Actually, the most fearful solution for Milosevic might be the sudden and uncontrollable implosion of the regime which supports him. The number of accounts to be settled and of murders these last months indicates that personal battles and fights for influence do not care about precautions. As long as he remains in power, Mr. Milosevic will be spared. But if he steps down, he becomes a witness to the abuses of the past, and, hence, a primary target. Not to mention all kinds of Mafiosi who might suddenly be tempted by the $10 million which the U.S. State Department once put on the table for his arrest. A 'Romanian' scenario? It is impossible that Mr. Milosevic does not think about what happened to the Ceausescu couple... Richard Holbrooke, who knows him well, once said: 'A cell in The Hague, it is the safest place to end his career.' But it is unlikely that Mr. Milosevic will follow the advice."
CROATIA: "Croatia And Serbia On America's Political Scales"
Fran Visnar opined in Zagreb-based Vjesnik (9/27): "Regardless of future developments in Serbia, the Americans will help the winning side expedite Milosevic's descent from power as much as possible, meaning that Vojislav Kostunica and the 18 parties will become America's and Western Europe's 'darlings.'... Croatia's main argument--extensively used over the last decade, that Croatia is important to the West and the United States is a strategic military partner--is pretty worn out now since it's obvious that the U.S. administration (Republican or Democratic) will extensively reward the changes in Serbia.... To some influential U.S. politicians (and geopoliticians), a democratic Serbia has more weight than all of Croatia's advantages.... America's pragmatism is highly adjustable and, at the same time, very painful for those who are naïve. Hence, one shouldn't be disappointed, but rather seek to establish ties with the new government in Serbia even before the United States does."
"Only as Long As He's In Power, Yugoslavia Matters To Milosevic"
Davor Gjenero commented in Zagreb-based Vjesnik (9/27): "Although some 'ad hoc analysts' reckon that Milosevic is a 'va banque' player, rather ending his political career with a suicide than with an agreement with his opponents, one shouldn't regard that notion as an absolute one. However irrational his set of values might be, Milosevic proved to be a skillful real-politician and tactician, and a man who can precisely estimate the range of his negotiating position. After his defeat, his only choice is to make a deal with the winners, for it seems that he has no strength to ignore the defeat, and the election winners have no strength to come to power against his will. It's even possible that the deal was made even before the elections had been called. His descent from power is the world's condition for Yugoslavia's reintegration into international institutions and the removal of sanctions. A deal with Kostunica would make that possible. Through a peaceful transfer of irrelevant power on the federal level, Milosevic would soften the radical opposition's hard-line resistance, cement the durability of his influence on the actual power-players in Serbia--army and police--and share the responsibility for the problems there with the opposition.... That concept of the 'transition through agreement' would suit the Clinton administration. At the end of his tenure, the U.S. president would--at least formally--get rid of one of his plagues.... Of course, it's not Washington's goal to support what Milosevic wants, nor to protect the legacy of his rule, or the real power in his hands.... However, to the global (and first of all--American) politics, Serbia is more interesting than Croatia, because the stability of the Balkans can be controlled from Belgrade."
DENMARK: "EU, U.S. Handled Situation Correctly"
Center-left Politiken commented (9/27): "For once the EU and the United States appear to have handled the situation correctly. The West has been careful to tone down its support for Kostinica and therefore he has avoided being viewed [by the Serb people] as a NATO puppet. In addition, the EU's offer of massive aid and the lifting of snactions helped to turn the voters [towards the opposition]. Kostunica has promised that the election will not spark reprisals. All the citizens of Yugoslavia, including Milosevic will enjoy the protection of society, Kostunica said. From our point of view, Milosevic deserves to be brought before the court at The Hague for war crimes, but we should not make his prosecution into a condition regarding the supply of emergency aid."
FINLAND: "Milosevic Miscalculated"
Independent Aamulehti editorialized (9/26): "Something can be read into the fact that the news agency Tanjug, which is part of Milosevic's information machinery, on Monday quoted a political source who said that opposition candidate Kostunica has a clear lead in the vote. The power machinery seems to at least admit that Milosevic cannot proclaim victory in the first round of voting. The number of votes won by Kostunica must be rather considerable, based on the uncertainty showed by those in power. Milosevic still has means by which he can stay in power...but he miscalculated when he changed the constitution in July to elect the president by direct popular vote. Milosevic had reason to believe that his latest trick would be successful because the opposition has always spoiled its chances by internal disunity. This turned out not to be true."
"Impossible Situation For Milosevic"
Liberal Hufvudstadsbladet observed (9/26): "For Milosevic, the situation is impossible in all respects. Even if he were to win--against all odds--he would be the loser. The international community will never accept him and his power apparatus as the leaders of Yugoslavia. Nor can Milosevic silence the opposition...which will press on with determination and with an increasingly loud voice. The problem is that Milosevic, his wife and the men and women around them live in a different reality from everybody else. They have created their own reality, their own logic and their own rules. And in their reality, they always win, regardless of how the voting goes. In a word, Milosevic and company are living in a land that does not exist. But it is not only that Milosevic lives in a land that does not exist. It is to be hoped, however, that that land can never again emerge in Yugoslavia or elsewhere."
"Balkans Will Remain Powder Keg Of Europe"
Independent Iltalehti held (9/26): "Milosevic has surprisingly much genuine support considering the catastrophes that he has caused his country over the past ten years. Despite his failures--or perhaps partly because of them?--Milosevic has remained a hero for many Serbs. His rival Kostunica, too, is a nationalist who has condemned NATO's air strikes and would not send Milosevic to the war tribunal in The Hague. It is to be feared that despite the official outcome of the presidential elections, rump Yugoslavia will drift into chaos. If Milosevic is declared the winner, the opposition will protest on the streets. Declaring Kostunica as the winner would push the army and the Milosevic camp towards starting a coup. The situation is further confused by the role of Montenegro, which may declare independence. In that case, both Milosevic and Kostunica might want to become 'the savior of Yugoslavia' and occupy Montenegro. Would that lead to another Balkans war? The Balkans remain the powder keg of Europe."
IRELAND: "Milosevic Cornered"
The moderately conservative Irish Times commented (9/26): "The clear message from the weekend poll...is that [Milosevic] has less support than ever from the Yugoslav people. Whatever his dwindling popularity in Serbia, he has virtually none in the pro-Western republic of Montenegro, the increasingly reluctant junior partner in the federation.... Every time he has been cornered he has shown an ability to strike back extremely effectively. Now he has been cornered as never before and may be tempted to pursue a ruthless and irresponsible policy in reply. A case has been put that in order to avoid such potentially dreadful consequences, he should be given a way out by the West. Some countries completely opposed to his policies and his personal actions have offered him asylum should this help in relieving Yugoslavia from his rule. The scenario is a tempting one even though its morality may be dubious. The picture of an elderly ex-dictator ending his days in isolation on a farmstead on the African veldt while Serbia enjoys prosperity and a return to the democratic fold, has definite attractions. It should be given consideration, however, only if all other options fail. Mr Milosevic has, after all, some very serious questions to answer in The Hague where he stands indicted of war crimes."
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA: "The Lion Is Wounded"
Independent, left-of-center Utrinski Vesnik ran an op-ed piece by Balkans specialist Dragan Nikolic (9/26): "Contrary to Milosevic's statement that last Sunday's elections will clear the situation in Yugoslav politics, our northern neighbor enters another situation even more confusing than before. It is evident that Milosevic lost the elections in central Serbia, Vojvodina and Montengro--he even lost in his hometown, Pozarevac, it is also evident that he is not ready to admit his defeat.... Kostunica, on the other hand, seems scared from the victory, as if he was not prepared for it. He said that going into the second round is in itself a victory.... The final victory, nevertheless, is still far away, having in mind that the second round offers far greater opportunity for fraud than the first one."
THE NETHERLANDS: "Milosevic's Deception Nothing New"
Amsterdam's conservative De Telegraaf held (9/26): "The votes had not yet been counted and Milosevic already claimed victory.... Milosevic's deception is nothing new. He did not hold the elections to give the people a real chance, but only to strengthen his own position.... But he was wrong.... The majority of his people has had enough of him.... Hopefully, the key pillars supporting his regime, such as the secret service, the rich criminals, and top military officials, will wake up and respect the election outcome.... For if they don't, then there is a chance that Montenegro will be drawn into the civil war.... The umpteenth Balkan crisis will then be a fact. The world is holding its breath."
NORWAY: "Earthquake In Serbia"
In newspaper-of-record Aftenposten (9/27), editor Ulf Andenaes commented: "What everything is dependent on is how Milosevic chooses to handle the defeat. It is difficult to imagine that he will say thank you and congratulate Kostunica with the victory--though Kostunica should have calmed him with the statement that he does not intend to hand him over to the war crimes tribunal in The Hague. On the other hand Milosevic has many possibilities to cheat the opposition out of their victory.... Normal conditions will not be established in this part of Europe before Milosevic is out of the way."
POLAND: "Political Purgatory"
Kazimierz Pytko wrote in center-left Zycie Warszawy (9/27): "It is not important who votes but who counts the votes. Thanks to Slobodan Milosevic, Europe has a chance to recall what the so-called socialistic democracy was all about.... Socialistic democracy cannot be maintained in contemporary Europe, and Milosevic will sooner or later have to resign. The question is in what manner he will do it.... The Milosevic couple can still decide their future. If they recognize they lost the democratic elections and, accordingly, decide to go, they will just be losers, but not ousted politicians.... Yugoslavia is the only country where the ruling communists did not go through the purgatory of losing power and seeing it shift to the opposition, which happened to their ideological brothers in other countries. That's why they stick so persistently to the principles of socialistic democracy, and they are unwilling to erase the adjective which warps the meaning of democracy so much."
SPAIN: "What Is Milosevic Saving Time For?"
Independent El Mundo observed (9/27): "In the course of the 15 days between the first and second rounds of the elections, the current president of Yugoslavia can plan a thousand and one ways to provoke a crisis that prevents the second round of voting from taking place. An explosion in Montenegro could be converted into the perfect excuse.... The presidency of Yugoslavia is for Milosevic a means of guaranteeing his impunity. And it is very unlikely he is going to give it up without fighting for it."
"Slobo Does Not Make Favors"
Columnist Hermann Tertsch wrote in center-left El Pais (9/27): "Vojislav Kostunica has allegedly won the elections. But he is far...from winning liberty for his people. There can be a war, repression, coup d'etat, or an insurrection. Under any scenario, the worst is yet to come because Milosevic continues to organize the calendar."
"The Serb Transition"
Conservative ABC said (9/26): "Milosevic should acknowledge his defeat and abandon power. For the good of his people, for the security of the Balkans, and for the stability of Europe. To cling to absolute power, turning his back on the will of the citizens, would be one more crime--the insult of democracy--added to his extensive, bloody, and merciless resume."
"Milosevic Will End Badly"
Conservative La Vanguardia of Barcelona observed (9/26): "One could describe Milosevic as an extreme nationalist and xenophobe, which he is. Above all, however, we behold an out-and-out dictator, a character who has deprived the Serbs of liberty, who has allowed a cult of personality, who has used his clan of relatives to enrich himself and whose wife dictates the laws of the land. Milosevic will end badly.... I don't know how he will finish his days; but I am certain that the Serbs will be finished with him."
"Milosevic, Defeated and Judged"
Conservative La Razon commented (9/26): "Milosevic has lost his final gamble.... The Yugoslav people have voted for change, to turn the page on a dark history of useless wars, and for the opportunity to rebuild their country and live in peace. For this they have shown his government the exit door which, for Milosevic, surely leads to the international court of law."
"Nothing Is Decided Yet"
Conservative La Vanguardia of Barcelona held (9/26): "Be what may, Milosevic is now at his lowest point. However, nothing is decided yet. Though the opposition and the Western powers will not accept fraud, they nevertheless say at the same time that they are aware that the transition is still up in the air. To begin with, Milosevic's mandate does not end before next summer. That is too long a time for both the opposition and the West to consider relieving the pressure on the leader whose recklessness has led Yugoslavia to disaster. In the West it has become a cliche to compare Milosevic's tricks with those of Saddam Hussein. The difference is that the Yugoslavs have been to the ballot box to express their disagreement."
JAPAN: "Opposition Must Also Be United Against Milosevic"
Liberal Asahi editorialized (9/27): "Milosevic will try to make plans for prolonging his leadership. As a nationalist, Kostunica criticized the U.S.-led NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. But, he now urges his nation's return to the community of European countries and full cooperation with the rest of the world. The United States and EU have suggested that they will lift sanctions and give a helping hand to Yugoslavia's economic reconstruction if Milosevic leaves office. Yugoslavia's opposition parties must also be united firmly under Kostunica to force Milosevic out of office and normalize the nation's situation as soon as possible."
AUSTRALIA: "Milosevic Must Accept Poll Results"
The national Australian Today said (9/27): "The opportunity to at last entrench peace across the former Yugoslavia must not be missed. To achieve it Milosevic must go."
"A Bully's Last Stand"
The leading Sydney Morning Herald opined (9/27): "Not that those who voted against him [Milosevic] have any reason for faith that the declared result will be the true one. Even if it is, and it goes against Milosevic, they have even less reason to be confident that he will accept the verdict. Neither NATO bombs, nor a shrinking nation, nor public protests have yet persuaded him to take 'no' for an answer. The United States, European governments and the Serbian opposition were unanimous yesterday in declaring that the main opposition challenger, Mr Vojislav Kostunica, had won convincingly in spite of what the U.S. State Department described as 'reports of fraud of just about every size, shape and colour.'"
HONG KONG: "Votes And Violence"
Independent South China Morning Post remarked in its editorial (9/27): "By all unofficial accounts, President Slobodan Milosevic was the clear loser, with the relatively obscure lawyer and politician Dr. Vojislav Kostunica scoring a decisive victory. Unfortunately, in today's Yugoslavia who counts the ballots is much more important than who casts them, and electoral fraud may see Milosevic emerge as the official winner. If he does, that sets the stage for violence.... The West has warned him against stealing the election, but its 'or else' remains unclear. With an election imminent, the United States has little interest in military intervention to preserve democracy or even to save Montenegro. The chances of Europeans acting on their own seem remote. Milosevic has bluffed his way past such warning before, and it is all too possible that he will do so again."
"Milosevic Must Go"
The independent iMail commented in its editorial (9/27): "Mr. Milosevic is unlikely to go without a struggle. He is a man who precipitated four wars, carried out mass ethnic cleansing in Kosovo, and is quite capable of sparking a fifth war.... While the world awaits the final results, and Mr. Milosevic's reaction, Britain has sent 15 warships to the area. The navy presence is there, said British officials, to warn Mr. Milosevic not to cling to power by attacking Montenegro. But will this have the desired effect, or will it simply provoke him? What will Britain and its allies do if Mr. Milosevic attacks Montenegro? Will the North Atlantic Treaty Organization invade if he imprisons opposition members?.... If Mr. Milosevic attempts to cling to power, all he would achieve is continued and intensified isolation in the international community, and heightened tensions, perhaps even a violent public revolt, in Serbia. He has lost four wars, and now an election. He should accept the verdict of his people. He should go."
SOUTH KOREA: "Election Manipulated Or A Run-Off?"
Reporter Kim Soo-jung wrote in the government-owned Daehan Maeil (9/27): "A bloody conflict will definitely ensue should [Milosevic] declare election victory, and a run-off will also give him enough time to plot a trick to win it.... How effectively the West's pressures are working against Milosevic is not clear yet."
VIETNAM: "Have The U.S. And EU Used The Elections To Overthrow Milosevic?"
Nguyen Dai Phuong wrote in the mouthpiece of Ho Chi Minh Communist Youth League Tien
Phong (9/27): "The developments surrounding the Yugoslavia elections are very complicated. The Western machinery of psychological warfare has run at full speed to exert maximum pressure on President Milosevic and his Socialist Party. Before the election, the United States publicly called for the overthrow of Milosevic and the EU released a group statement saying that any attempt to claim victory for Mr.Milosevic would be 'fraudulent.'... Monitoring the elections, it is apparent that President Milosevic has been put under heavy pressure from NATO. This is really a great challenge to the Yugoslav socialists.... The United States and NATO couldn't force Yugoslavia into submission by their bombs and missiles, so now they have resorted to using psycho-war tricks to overthrow Milosevic.... In fact, all proclamations given by the United States, the EU, and the OSCE before the delivery of the final results are like ultimatums aimed at forcing President Milosevic and his party to admit defeat regardless of the real results."
"Yugoslavia: More Problems After The Elections"
Duy Van wrote in mouthpiece of Ho Chi Minh City's Communist Youth League Tuoi Tre (9/26): "Though the official outcome will only be announced today, the preliminary tallies from the polling stations show conflicting results. This is predictable. Yugoslavia's elections occurred during many outside threats and inside uncertainties. Given the current situation, no matter who wins the election Yugoslavia's future will remain unstable. Why? According to the Western script, if Mr.Milosevic wins the election, the opposition parties, specifically the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS), will immediately proclaim the results 'fraudulent.' Protest demonstrations will then be organized, creating a precedent for a new intervention by NATO into Yugoslavia and the possibility of a new explosion of war in the Balkans. If Mr. Milosevic loses the elections, it is still unclear whether the European Union can fulfill the promises it made to Yugoslavia before the election. More importantly, this will cause a political confrontation in a country whose people's feelings have been severely hurt by NATO's 78-days of airstrikes. The hand-over of authority is also a great concern since President Milosevic affirmed on Sunday that he will remain in office until mid 2001 in defiance of the election results while opposition parties were saying that the new president can legally take office within 15 days after the proclamation of results."
CANADA: "Aid Serbia's Democrats"
The liberal Toronto Star observed (9/27): "Slobodan Milosevic was shamed and repudiated in Sunday's presidential election. Even he accepts that much. His regime lacks all legitimacy. But he will not go quietly.... The people of Serbia have freely repudiated an autocrat who promised them a Greater Serbia but delivered only Balkan strife, national collapse, ostracism and poverty. They have signalled their desire to break with a dark past. They deserve our support."
"A Tyrant Teeters"
The conservative National Post (9/27) commented: "Should Mr. Milosevic fall from power, the event will provide a measure of vindication for NATO's Kosovo strategy. By taking a hard military line, Western leaders demonstrated they would no longer permit Mr. Milosevic to use violence as a means to stoke Serb nationalism and attract support. By imposing sanctions and withholding aid until Mr. Milosevic leaves office, the West gave Serbs an economic incentive to throw out the current government. Thanks in part to this stick and carrot sequence, Mr. Milosevic is losing his grip on power, and Yugoslavia may soon be on a path to becoming the 'normal European democratic country' Mr. Kostunica imagines."
"How To Beat Milosevic At His Own Game"
The leading Globe and Mail opined (9/27): "The game is not over yet. By all rights, Mr. Milosevic should admit defeat and stand aside. But if he does not, Mr. Kostunica will face a hard question: Should he accept the election commission's results and run in the second round, or should he challenge the results and stay out? The case for staying out is compelling. There is every reason to suspect that Mr. Milosevic's people have manipulated the results to deny Mr. Kostunica an outright, first-round victory.... Despite all his reservations, it makes more sense for Mr. Kostunica to take his chances in a second round. With the momentum he gained in the first, he has a good shot at winning. Such a victory would be all but impossible for Mr. Milosevic to overturn.... [Mr. Milosevic] does not expect Mr. Kostunica to run a second time for what he has already won. He expects him to shout from the sidelines. Mr. Kostunica should take the old fox by surprise. He should run again--and win."
"Why Won't Slobo Go"
The mid-market Ottawa Citizen asserted (9/27): "Despite overwhelming evidence the voting was neither free nor fair, Western countries are calling on President Milosevic 'to respect the will of the people' and step down. It's not that Yugoslavia wouldn't be better off if Mr. Milosevic were ousted.... Nor is it the hypocrisy of accepting the results of an unfair voting process simply because the opposition prevailed. But an election is either fair or it is not; its legitimacy doesn't change because the 'good guy' won. The real concern is the willingness of Western leaders to begin writing Mr. Milosevic's political obituary, ignoring the lessons of recent history.... What Western leaders can't accept is that they have no influence over whether Mr. Milosevic stays or goes, short of a massive ground invasion of Serbia. International isolation hasn't worked, sanctions have failed and so have cruise missiles. The only way Mr. Milosevic will give up power is if he dies or if the Yugoslav people are prepared to risk dying themselves to force him from office.... Rhetoric can be a powerful weapon in a democracy, but when it comes to Slobodan Milosevic, it's force, not words, that carry the day. The people of Yugoslavia understand this. Pity Western leaders still don't."
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