State Department Regular Briefing Sept. 25: Serbian Elections
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE
DAILY PRESS BRIEFING
Monday, September 25, 2000
1:00 P.M.
(ON THE RECORD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED)
MR. BOUCHER: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen....
Q: Let's start with the Milosevic situation, please. Both the State
Department and the White House are saying what you folks said even
before the election, that there were irregularities, flawed, et
cetera. That's clear; you're saying that. But what isn't clear is
whether the vote count -- irregularities or not -- are such that you
feel Milosevic has been defeated, or reelected. And -- well, I have a
follow-up, obviously, but --
MR. BOUCHER: Okay, let's deal with the several issues that arise from
this. First of all, there were massive irregularities and reports of
fraud of just about every size, shape and color; every type one can
imagine are coming in. Nonetheless, it's also quite clear that the
democratic opposition -- the democratically committed forces of the
opposition -- appear to be on their way to a convincing victory. The
votes are still being counted. Even the count that is done by the
opposition -- because they have observers at polling places, observers
of vote counts, and they are also phoning in their results -- even
though that process is still under way.
But we believe that process to be credible. We believe that it will
result in a more accurate count than what might come out officially.
But the official count is still going on as well, and the results of
that have not been announced. So while this counting is under way, we
don't want to -- well, what we can say is from the results that we
have seen so far, it does look like the opposition is on its way to a
convincing victory.
What is clear is that things have changed in Belgrade. Things have
changed in Yugoslavia. The Yugoslav people have had a chance to stand
up and say what they want. Do they want the continued isolation of the
current regime, or do they want to be part of Europe? And I think it
is clear that they have overwhelmingly chosen the path of democracy
and reintegration into Europe.
Q: My point, which that nearly answers, you are saying that we're fair
and square or, put another way, the opposition, who you trust as being
reliable -- he's out, he lost. But you don't know, am I correct,
whether the numbers the government will report will show that he is
out, or will claim that he has been reelected; you don't know yet?
MR. BOUCHER: Well, if the government were to report an accurate total,
all the indications are that it would be a convincing victory by the
democratic forces. But even that count, even their count, is not
finished yet. So they can't say by how much, and exactly what.
Q: But their count may show that he may claim that he won, right?
MR. BOUCHER: But the government count -- because of the kinds of
frauds, the irregularities, the reports of stuffing and all these
various kinds of fraud -- will probably be skewed. The question is
whether they are willing to recognize the voice of the people here,
recognize what the true trends are, and accept that this will of
people needs to be respected.
I don't know at this point what the government is going to come out
with, because they haven't come out with it yet.
Q: Well, is it too early to ask how this might -- well, it has to be a
conditional question -- how this might affect U.S. policy?
MR. BOUCHER: We have made quite clear that if there is a
democratically elected government in Belgrade, if the democratic
change occurs, that we will take steps to lift sanctions. We have made
that clear, and I think others in the international community have
made that clear as well.
Q: Richard, I'm just curious as to why you're so quick to accept what
the opposition is saying in their reporting of the count. Wouldn't it
be in their best interest also to skew what they're saying, just as it
would be in the interest of Milosevic and his people to skew what the
results are?
MR. BOUCHER: Well, a couple of facts here. First of all, international
observers were not permitted in by the regime, and there were a
variety of different public and private groups who wanted to go that
weren't allowed in, including the OSCE [Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe], which is in the job of inspecting elections in
the region. Second, there are, however, a lot of pieces of information
about what was going on. Those reports indicate that the regime was
attempting to commit massive fraud in a whole variety of ways, and
there have been reports of those things.
Now, given that that affects the official count, clearly affects the
official count, what do we have to fall back on? Well, the opposition
was present in all the polling places; was able to be present at the
counting of votes, of the actual votes, not the final tally that the
government may come out with; and, therefore, that tally done at the
voting centers has to be considered more credible because the reports
of fraud are not on that side and the presence at the polling places
is established.
So the final thing I would note, that the numbers that are coming out
of the opposition tally, the partial tally so far, are consistent with
other reports of numbers of voters and things that have happened in
the past, and things like that; whereas, some of the numbers coming
out of the government side -- you know, seven times the number of
absentee ballots as ever before in Montenegro -- kind of are not
consistent with other facts and tallies.
Q: So it's the consistency of what the opposition is reporting from
these preliminary vote counts with, you say, polls done in the past
that is what makes you believe that their figures are correct and that
the government -- well, we haven't seen any from the government yet.
MR. BOUCHER: It's the credibility of the system that they have
established and the consistency with the other facts that are
available, that indicate that this is at least more credible than the
government's count.
Q: Do you see anything suspicious in the relatively long time it's
taking to get at least some official results out? Do you think they're
cooking something behind the scenes?
MR. BOUCHER: I think that would probably be a logical assumption.
Q: Can you give any kind of sense of what you think Kostunica's
chances, given all of this, of actually at one point maybe assuming
the presidency? Can you talk about that?
MR. BOUCHER: I think -- let me say this two ways. One, he should. If
the results as they are apparent today, if it looks like -- as I said,
it looks like the opposition is on its way to a convincing victory. If
those results are finalized and respected by the government, a
democratic elected government should be in a position to take over in
Yugoslavia.
But I would go back to what I said before. Things have changed. People
have had a chance to speak. There has been a massive voter turnout.
People have had a chance to say what they want, and no one can deny
their voices at this point. They have spoken and, really, the
atmosphere in Belgrade we think has changed because of that.
Q: If I could follow up --
MR. BOUCHER: Do you have a follow-up?
Q: Yes. You refer to them as the democratic opposition, and fair
enough, but Kostunica has defended Radovan Karadzic; he has made
claims against NATO aggression; he continues to claim that Kosovo
should be part of a greater Yugoslavia. How do you square all that? I
mean, are you in any way concerned about this nationalist streak in
the opposition leader?
MR. BOUCHER: I think, first of all, we don't choose candidates. We do
think that there is a side to this election that is committed to
democracy and committed to letting the Serbian people decide who they
want for their leader. And it is clear what the results are -- which
direction the results are going with that regard.
So, the fact is, we think that there is a force for democracy, and we
congratulate the Serb people in choosing that. But in terms of exactly
the person who will be in charge, and how we deal with them, we will
wait for that moment to come. But we look forward to dealing with a
democratic government in Belgrade; that is the fundamental point.
Q: Richard, I would just like to pick up on the point that you made.
If you could just elaborate a little bit on why you think it is a
logical assumption. It's simply because final tallies haven't been
announced, that that means that they are cooking the books?
MR. BOUCHER: Well, we've had, I think, all sorts of indications
throughout the weekend, various reports of attempts at fraud,
pre-marked ballots, ballot boxes being flown in, et cetera, et cetera.
The fact is, yes, it does take some time to make a count, but one has
to be a bit suspicious about the delays, about how this count is
occurring, and the fact that it is not being promised until tomorrow.
Q: And so what do you think Milosevic and his supporters are doing?
MR. BOUCHER: We'll have to see. Maybe they are trying to figure out
how to -- maybe the kind of massive fraud they were perpetrating is
not enough to overcome the fact that there seems to be a strong
popular support for the other side.
Q: The Serb radio, just a few minutes ago, was talking about a runoff.
Are you saying that this -- there should be no runoff, in your view?
MR. BOUCHER: I think that is a judgment that one would make at the
point when a strong and final tally is ready. As you know, if no
candidate gets 50 percent, then there is normally a runoff. It does
look like, at this point, that the democratic opposition is heading
towards a very convincing victory, but a final judgment on that would
have to await a final tally.
Q: You said what the United States would do if there was a
democratically elected government. You didn't say what the United
States would do if there were not, if Milosevic insisted on staying in
power. And a follow-up to that, which I wanted to ask, is the joint
maneuvers in the Adriatic, Croatian-NATO, have anything to do with --
I mean, is it a show of force?
MR. BOUCHER: Let me do the two things separately. I mean, first on the
question of what we would do if not, we would keep the sanctions in
place, we would maintain a policy as we have. I think, though, that
the fact is that things have changed, that the people have spoken up
for having a democracy, for being able to be part of Europe, and we
would have to consider that as we move forward.
Second, the relationship -- the lack of a relationship. There is
actually no relationship between the military forces in the region and
the election. The future Serbia will have to be decided by the Serbian
people. We have indicated before that we have these exercises under
the Partnership for Peace. They were scheduled long before the
schedule of the elections was decided. And these are Partnership for
Peace exercises with Croatia, which has joined the Partnership for
Peace recently, and we think that that is a contribution to regional
stability.
Q: Is there any U.S. presence at all in Yugoslavia, and has there been
any discussion with the opposition or anybody else about returning an
official U.S. presence to Belgrade once there was a transition? I
mean, is that something that would just happen automatically, or how
would that unfold?
MR. BOUCHER: I think that is not the issue that people's minds have
been focused on in the last few days. I think people have been focused
on the issue of the election, of how it was being conducted, on where
the democratic opposition was moving in terms of the election, and
assuring some fair numbers coming out of this, some credible numbers
coming out of this. So anything on future policy toward the future
government is really speculative at this point.
Q: But on the question of a U.S. presence, there are no U.S. officials
of any kind in Yugoslavia?
MR. BOUCHER: Not that I know of. I'll double, triple-check that. Well,
in Kosovo, yes. Certainly there is a U.S. presence in Kosovo, and
sometimes our people travel to Montenegro. I'll have to check if they
are there now.
Q: Are any of the reports of fraud coming from anyone other than the
opposition? Are there NGOs [non-government organizations] or other
third governments, or are there any other than the opposition
reporting this fraud?
MR. BOUCHER: I think in terms of people inside Serbia, there are very
few international observers present, very few at all, and the credible
ones were the OSCE, and people like that were not allowed in.
Nonetheless, people are collecting information from all around, and I
think if you look at the OSCE reports and the statements that they
have made so far on the election, they have reported widespread fraud,
as have others. So we are all observing and hearing the same kind of
reports.
Q: Is the U.S. Government's position that sanctions will be eased if
Milosevic is out of power, or do you want to see what -- this sort of
follows Eli's question -- or do you want to see what the new
government's policies are? I don't think sanctions are imposed because
of the way Milosevic gets elected; I think they were opposed because
of Milosevic's policies and activities. So wouldn't you want to know
that the new guys are going a different direction, or would simply the
fact that you approve of the way they won election, and you see that
as a harbinger of democracy, it would be enough to make a gesture or
two or three or ten in their favor?
MR. BOUCHER: I see the question, but I think it's maybe trying to cut
it too fine.
Q: All right.
MR. BOUCHER: The issue is that we believe, first of all, that the
Serbian people have a right to choose. They appear to be choosing, in
a very strong way, democratic forces. They appear to be choosing
integration with Europe and becoming part of a stable and European
Balkans. Assuming that that prevails, then we would take steps to
remove our sanctions. So I don't think you can quite differentiate
between Milosevic out of power and a democratic government in, and
different policies. It all seems to be part of the same package.
Q: So you're convinced that the opposition is a democratic -- not only
-- I mean, they're running a --
MR. BOUCHER: Well, first and foremost --
Q: But these are the democrats coming in?
MR. BOUCHER: First, the most important thing is to be able to deal up
front with a democratically elected government in Serbia, and that is
the condition that we think would lead to -- would make it possible
for us to take steps to lift our sanctions.
Q: Richard, has there been any contact in the last 36 hours between
people in the Department and the Serbian opposition? And are the
Serbian opposition asking you, as a precaution, to take any particular
measures in case Milosevic does try to claim a victory and hold on to
power?
MR. BOUCHER: I don't know the answer to those. I'll have to check on
that.
Q: Do you read anything into the claim that has been on the wires that
was just mentioned a while back about there being some kind of a
runoff? Does a runoff - does that mean some kind of concession in the
eyes of the State Department on the part of Milosevic? And the second
part of the this question basically is: What are the rules in Serbia
about runoffs? Do you know?
MR. BOUCHER: Well, I think I talked a little bit about the rules
before. As we understand them, if a candidate doesn't get 50 percent
on the first round, then it's thrown to a runoff. At this point, the
indications are that the democratic opposition is moving towards a
very convincing victory on the first round, that might even preclude a
runoff. It might make it -- it might easily become more than 50
percent of the vote.
Now, if the official count tries pushing to a runoff, then we'll have
to see what the opposition decides to do. You can interpret it any way
possible. They might want a second chance to try to rig the election
even more than they rigged this one, but I think the opposition will
have to decide at that point what they want to do. But in terms of the
actual facts and the most credible count that we can get, it appears
that they are on their way to a convincing victory.
Q: More than 50 percent?
MR. BOUCHER: Well, the numbers -- most of the numbers point to that,
but you can't say for sure until the final count is in.
Q: Do you expect the new government to cooperate with The Hague, the
ICTY [International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia]?
MR. BOUCHER: We expect the new government to stand up for the rule of
law. We'll just have to see how that works out.
Q: A few minutes ago when you were asked what you would do if -- what
the United States would do if Milosevic retains power, you said keep
the sanctions in place, but things have changed, people have spoken
for a normal relations with Europe and we have to take account of
that. How would you -- is that to imply some flexibility in the
sanctions, or keeping them in place?
MR. BOUCHER: No. What I'm implying is the opposite, without being able
to be definitive at this point because we're dealing with a
hypothetical. What I'm implying is that if things have changed, the
people in Yugoslavia have had a chance to express their will, have
shown clearly we think -- showing clearly what they support. And they
want to be part of Europe. They want to have their democratic
government. And the thwarting of that will by the government, if that
should turn out to be the case, would be something that we would have
to take into account in terms of future policy.
Q: Richard, initially the U.S. was concerned that there weren't going
to be these independent international observers from the OSCE that
would be inside to actually be able to say once for all if the
elections are free and fair. Now that they are not there, how can the
U.S. be sure that, in fact -- I mean, I know that you are listening to
the opposition but, as we heard earlier, that they are not twisting
things in their favor?
MR. BOUCHER: Well, it would certainly be preferable for there to be
the international observers there. For any election, that provides the
best assurance of the totals. But, at the same time, that doesn't mean
that we have to suspend judgment or equate all the information that we
get. The fact is that there is a presence on the ground and on the
polling places; there is a system set up to report; that while the
official count is going on, there is also a credible count going on on
behalf of the opposition.
And there is a lot of information on who is committing what kind of
fraud. There is a lot of information on previous election results, and
the number of voters in various places that you can compare different
results to. And when you see the fraud being committed massively on
the side of the government, one has to accept that the other side,
where there aren't these reports of massive fraud, is going to have a
much more credible total.
Q: Richard, there has been a lot of concern about Montenegro. If
Milosevic were to crack down or to try to take over in Montenegro,
does the United States have any sort of intention to defend the
present government of Montenegro?
MR. BOUCHER: That is one of those speculative questions that we have
dealt with in the past. I think the only way to answer that is to make
clear that we watch the situation in Montenegro very closely; we have
a strong concern -- we and other NATO partners have a strong concern
about the security situation in that area, and that Milosevic does not
have a free hand to operate.
....
Q: Can I go back to Milosevic just one more time, please?
MR. BOUCHER: Okay.
Q: The latest version is that he might be willing to have a runoff.
Basically, what is the U.S. view of that? But obviously the question
is based on -- State's position is that, if there weren't fraud, the
other side would have won. Okay? Now, if that is your position, what
do you think about a halfway measure like a runoff?
MR. BOUCHER: Well, let me say three things about that. First of all, I
don't have the luxury of being able to get up in the middle of my
briefings and go check the wires, so it is a little hard for me to
deal with that question since I have been here and other people have
access.
Q: No, no, no. But a runoff has always been a possibility.
MR. BOUCHER: Second of all, before we check the latest wires, I would
have to say that I think we did talk about the possibility of a
runoff.
Q: We did, but not definitively.
MR. BOUCHER: Well, I can't be any more definitive at the end of the
briefing than I was at the beginning since I don't have any new
information while I'm standing here.
Q: It seems more likely now. It's not academic anymore. It's not
academic anymore.
MR. BOUCHER: Well, in that case, I will check my own sources of
information and get back to you, because I just can't be held
accountable for things that might happen while I'm standing up here.
Q: No, no. Any suggestion that this is not fair play is not really
fair.
MR. BOUCHER: Well, I'll make the suggestion. But, anyway, let's go on.
(Laughter.)
Q: Well, I don't know why you are doing this, because the point is,
you either win an election -- it's very common, if you don't get 50
percent, there is a runoff. Now, this is a tight election. You guys
say he really lost, certainly by fair standards.
MR. BOUCHER: Barry, the information I had when I came out here was
that all the indications were from credible reporting that the
opposition was heading towards a very convincing victory. Okay?
Q: Gotcha. Nothing has changed.
MR. BOUCHER: Now, we would expect that to be respected.
Q: That hasn't changed.
MR. BOUCHER: And if that is the outcome, we would expect that the
votes and the will of the Serbian people should be respected by the
government. Exactly what the vote totals are and how many votes are
counted, I don't have an update on, but that is my best information
and we would expect them to respect that.
Q: Listen, it's not that complex, and maybe I'm making it sound
complex. If the U.S. Government's view is that not only was the
opposition victorious, but they gained at least 50 percent of the
vote, then your answer is obvious, then there is no basis for a
runoff. That is all I'm asking.
MR. BOUCHER: I gave you the best information I had when I walked in
here, and I don't have any new information since then to change that.
Q: Okay.
MR. BOUCHER: We may get more information to change that. But not while
I'm still standing here, I can promise that.
Q: Okay.
....
(The briefing was concluded at 2:15 P.M.)
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