FRY ELECTIONS: 'THE REAL BATTLE FOR POWER WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER ELECTIONS'

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FRY Elections: 'The Real Battle For Power Will Take Place After Elections'

Amid mutual claims of victory on the part of President Milosevic's party and opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica, European media emphasized the tense atmosphere, confusion and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of Sunday's elections in Yugoslavia. The press stressed the latest U.S. and European official statements expressing doubt about the regularity of the vote, and reported concern among all NATO Allies as well. The general sense among commentators venturing an early appraisal of the elections was that the contest, from the start, was "deeply flawed." Many found that the opposition has strongly challenged President Milosevic's popular support among Serbs, and that it has gained "newfound strength" and a new "voice and face" in the form of Mr. Kostunica. Most analysts went on to say, however, that Mr. Milosevic, "whether he wins or he loses...remains sole master on board and retains the final word." "The real battle for power will take place after the elections," intoned left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau. British and Italian papers noted that a possible scenario involving Montenegro--where Mr. Milosevic, acting provocatively in the wake of the elections, could decide to send in troops in to topple Podgorica's pro-Western government--could present a dilemma for the Allies. Several media voices concluded that, as in previous crises born in the Balkans, the West really has "no scenario for after the elections." Following are major themes:

'FARCE': Echoing the sentiment of other media voices, London's conservative Times held: "Even before the first vote was cast, Yugoslavia's election was deeply flawed. The campaign was a mockery of democracy." Barcelona's conservative La Vanguardia agreed, pointing out that the absence of independent observers "speaks to voting irregularities."

SLOBODAN HERE TO STAY: Many believed that Mr. Milosevic, regardless of the election results, will declare himself the winner. Berlin's centrist Tagesspiegel contended, "This is the fight of a man who only wants to save himself.... He is willing to use all available means. And he does not care whether other countries recognize the obviously manipulated election or not."

OPPOSITION GAINS: A number of analysts asserted that even if the Milosevic regime prevents Mr. Kostunica from winning, the opposition has nevertheless scored an important victory. Left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau held that "Milosevic's opponents...led a determined campaign. For the first time, they have achieved unity even without the participation of Vuk Draskovic." Some advised the opposition to build on its gains and be prepared if run-off elections take place.

OUTSIDE 'INTERVENTION': Several pundits lamented that the West "has no idea what to do" in Yugoslavia, whatever the post-election scenario. Observers in Britain, Russia and Belgium warned that the U.S. and its European Allies are prepared neither to intervene militarily should Mr. Milosevic make a move toward Montenegro, nor provide the "billions of dollars" deemed necessary to rebuild Serbia if the opposition comes to power.

EDITOR: Diana McCaffrey

EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 29 reports from 14 countries, September 23-25. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.

EUROPE

SLOVENIA: "Patriots And Enemies"

Left-of-center Delo commented (9/25): "In Yugoslavia, elections have always meant a state of emergency. The opposition has been an enemy rather than a carrier of political alternative.... Sunday elections were similar, but they--more than any elections in the past--strained, to an extreme, conflicts between the 'patriots,' represented by the leading left coalition, and the 'enemies.' The difference is that since--to put it mildly--NATO's senseless aggression against the FRY last year, the Serbian opposition has been regarded as an executor of the policy supported by 'NATO criminals.'... Factions and political parties in Serbia are created on the basis of a similar way of reasoning rather than on ideological differences. This has been demonstrated on the local level in places where the opposition was in power.... The international community, which wished to punish Milosevic with NATO bombers...has brought the democratic forces in the FRY to...a point at which expecting changes in the political arena is just science fiction."

BRITAIN: "Dangers Of Deadlock"

BBC Radio reported on what it described as "the dangers of deadlock" (9/25): "As expected--and, indeed, feared--by the international community, both sides are claiming victory, and victory in the first round. Over the past few weeks anybody looking at the opinion polls would think it pretty impossible for Mr. Milosevic to win in the first round unless he was going to blatantly steal this election, perhaps not caring anymore about international opinion. That seems to be what's happening and it is pretty blatant. The question is: How angry are people going to be? People are treating this very much as a referendum on President Milosevic, no doubt hoping to bring to an end ten years of economic sanctions, ten years of almost constant conflict. What this election has delivered, instead, is a political crisis."

"Confusion, Controversy"

The BBC's World Service reported (9/25): "Confusion and controversy surround both the conduct and the outcome of the elections, with voting ending amid reports from monitors of numerous polling irregularities, including improper supervision. The world is watching the results closely, with officials from the United States, the European Union and Russia reported to be conferring Sunday night on how to react if Mr. Milosevic were to be re-elected by unfair means."

"Montenegrin Tinderbox"

The conservative Times editorialized (9/25): "Even before the first vote was cast, Yugoslavia's election was deeply flawed. The campaign was a mockery of democracy. Most ominously, the full weight of the Milosevic machine was directed at the one part of the country most vulnerable to pressure: Montenegro. The reluctant junior partner in the Yugoslav Federation presents Mr. Milosevic with both a threat and an opportunity.... Rebuffing Milo Djukanovic's cautious search for compromise, the cunning, opportunistic Mr. Milosevic has set out to polarize Montenegrin society.... Exacerbating tensions, Mr. Milosevic can quickly provoke internecine conflict as a pretext to topple Mr. Djukanovic, impose a state of emergency, override the election results and maintain himself in power. NATO sees the danger. It has warned Belgrade that it intends to protect Montenegro. Details are kept vague, perhaps to keep Mr. Milosevic guessing. But even Washington, overcoming its aversion to deploying ground troops, now says only the swift use of overwhelming force could reverse a Serb putsch. The danger is that neither Western opinion nor local topography and logistics will allow this. So far, Mr. Djukanovic has shown remarkable skill in foiling Belgrade's machinations. He now faces his greatest danger. To desert him now would be to sacrifice not only Montenegrin identity but also the hopes of all those who voted in such numbers yesterday against President Milosevic."

FRANCE: "The Opposition Received A Nice Package From Uncle Sam"

Pascal Riche wrote in left-of-center Le Monde (9/25): "This year the United States spent $25 million.... Are the Americans helping to spread democracy?... All is true, he (Kostunica) was inundated with European and American money.... In March, the secretary of state, Madeleine Albright told the Serbs they could count on U.S. support and declared, 'We cannot impose democracy in Serbia, but we can help the opposition in coming together.'... Bill Clinton's advisor for Eastern Europe, Greg Schulte, stated, 'We knew that Milosevic wanted to steal the election, so he reversed the situation by accusing the opposition of distorting the rules of the game with foreign money. This is absurd propaganda: He (Milosevic) controls all the media.'"

GERMANY: "The Manipulator"

Centrist Tagesspiegel of Berlin (9/25) judged in an editorial: "It was revealing that Milosevic unfolded his ballot outside the election booth and marked it facing the cameras. Whoever wants to vote secretly, Milosevic used to taunt, probably has something to hide. And his accusations against the opposition, which supports free, secret and fair elections as well as the overthrow of the president, are far-flung: putsch attempts, a devil's pact with NATO states--in short, criminal elements everywhere. This is the fight of a man who only wants to save himself. And to achieve this goal, he is willing to use all available means. And he does not care whether other countries recognize the obviously manipulated election or not."

"Election Farce"

Left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau noted in an editorial (9/25): "The election farce will not serve as a new legitimization for Milosevic. Even if the regime keeps challenger Kostunica from winning, the opposition has nevertheless scored an important victory. Milosevic's opponents, who have been quarreling among themselves up to now, led a desperate and determined campaign. For the first time, they have achieved unity even without the participation of Vuk Draskovic. The opposition will be able to rely on its newfound strength in the next round and needs to be careful not to let new disagreements arise. The real battle for power will take place after the election. The 'First Family' will defend its rule and privileges by all available means. The office of president is the only protection for accused war criminal Milosevic against the UN tribunal at The Hague. A bitter realization is spreading throughout Serbia. The authoritarian regime will not allow the democratization of Serbia and the country's return to Europe without a fight."

"Milosevic Cannot Lose"

Frank Herold suggested in left-of-center Berliner Zeitung (9/25): "If Milosevic wants to win the election, he will do so. Otherwise he would not have agreed to holding the election. Once again, Milosevic was able to pick the procedure which promised the most significant strategic advantages. He did not even have to falsify the election results. Milosevic could even let Kostunica win, because he is still able to determine how much a president is worth in Yugoslavia. It was Milosevic who ended the constitutional insignificance of the presidential office and endowed it with power. And it is up to Milosevic to return the office to insignificance if he so chooses. Thus, it is unwarranted to see the results of this election as any more meaningful than the outcome of elections Milosevic staged in the past."

"Opposition Gains"

Right-of-center Flensburger Tageblatt (9/25) wrote in an editorial: "With the closing of election sites another fuse has been lit in Yugoslavia. The opposition has gained both a voice and a face with its candidate Kostunica. Milosevic has miscalculated the effects of putting pressure on the Serbian people, and this makes him even more dangerous."

ITALY: "The Long Night Of Suspicions On The Verge Of Civil War"

Centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera said (9/25): "The only certain thing, so far, is the uncertainty of a country at the mercy of the moves of Milosevic, who appears determined to

erase the defeat scenario predicted by the polls.... What is well known at this point is the desire of the United States to close the game with Milosevic with other means, after trying with the bombs. Millions of dollars to the opposition and support for Montenegro are the main devices of this end-of-reign scenario."

"Longing For Freedom"

A commentary by Guido Rampoldi in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica held (9/25): "Whatever Slobodan Milosevic announces in the next few hours, the popular support which for 13 years had enabled an autocratic regime to disguise itself as something similar to a democracy seemed to have vanished last night.... However, the dictatorship has not vanished yet.... The possibility of finding themselves with a Slavic Cuba in the Balkans--albeit a Cuba without a sea that isolates it and with a domestic opposition--is a matter of concern for European diplomacy."

"America And Europe Denounce Fraud"

Washington correspondent Andrea di Robilant wrote in centrist, influential La Stampa (9/25): "Even before knowing the results of the elections, NATO governments were already at work yesterday to agree on the details of a severe denunciation of Milosevic for the fraud and the irregularities that took place during the vote.... Before and during the vote, the Allies openly sided with the anti-Milosevic front, financing independent polls and helping the opposition spread its message. The United States and Europe have already openly said that they will abolish economic sanctions in case of a victory by the opposition."

"The Belgrade Puzzle"

Sergio Romano observed in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (9/25): "Since its military intervention one and a half years ago, NATO has persevered in its mistakes in the former Yugoslavia. We have separated Kosovo from Serbia, but we cannot grant it independence. We have encouraged the independence movement in Montenegro, but we fear the effects of a possible secession. And we have treated our enemy, Milosevic, like a criminal. In order to win a war, it is necessary to occupy the territory of the enemy or to accord the dignified role of interlocutor to the adversary and negotiate a reasonable surrender with him. We have done neither. With yesterday's elections...a new phase begins in the long Yugoslav crisis. There will be new protagonists, new perspectives, new dangers and perhaps occasions that can be exploited to achieve a political solution. NATO cannot cancel its past mistakes, but its members can at least avoid making more mistakes. I wonder why Clinton, now free of the need to pursue a new mandate, can't revoke the sanctions as a gesture of good will. He would deal a heavy blow to the 'Milosevic party' and would leave a less troublesome heritage to his successor and to all of us."

RUSSIA: "Milosevic Won't Quit; International Community Impotent"

Maksim Maksimov said in reformist Vremya Novostei (9/25): "The West is certain of three things: Slobodan Milosevic can't win by fair means; he will not quit all his posts, whatever the outcome of the vote; and NATO will under no circumstances start a new military operation. The West has no idea what to do. Talk of a crisis of its policies has never been so close to the truth as now.... Even the best of scenarios--with Kostunica winning and Milosevic departing, which is unlikely--holds a lot more minuses than pluses. The United States and the EU have long since promised to include Yugoslavia in their plan to restore the Balkans once a democratically-minded politician comes to power in Belgrade. Rebuilding Serbia will cost billions of dollars. It is unclear who will pay. After the many resounding diplomatic victories and defeats, bloody tragedies and wars that have taken place in the decade since Yugoslavia began to fall apart, the international community has to admit its impotence."

BELGIUM: "Total Confusion"

RTBF radio reported (9/25) that, while the polls were predicting a loss for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, total confusion prevailed this morning with no results yet available and both President Milosevic and opposition leader Kostunica claiming victory. RTBF radio added that the only certainty was that the turnout at the polling stations was important, highlighting that this should play in favor of the opposition. VRT radio this morning reported that the opposition in Yugoslavia is claiming preliminary results of more than 50 percent of the votes for Kostunica and 41 for President Milosevic, while official state sources claim a current lead of 44 percent for Milosevic vs. 37 percent for Kostunica.

"Deadlock"

Axel Buyse held in independent Catholic De Standaard (9/25): "In all those years, Milosevic has not been able to achieve anything positive for the Serbs. On the contrary, his regime has brought nothing but misery to the people, while his own family and small group of loyal followers managed to build fortunes abroad. Under its 'strongman,' Serbia entangled itself in one desperate war after another. Serbia is impoverished and, even under the best scenario, it will take decades to build up again.... The 'leftist' parties that try to keep Milosevic in the saddle are caricatures of the ideology that they claim to represent. The tenacious manner in which the elite is trying to keep up the illusion that the country was victorious in its war against NATO last year speaks volumes. The worldwide image that the official Yugoslavia tries to present to the world and in which Belgrade depicts itself as a beacon of international solidarity and future prosperity is simply grotesque.... What happens in the coming months is of concern to all of us. Serbia cannot stay an enclave forever in the by-trial-and-error integrating Europe. Moreover, we ourselves also actively determine what is going on in that country, inter alia, by the inadequately worked-out sanctions with which the EU member states have done more harm than good--because they cut into the flesh of the wrong people."

"The Final Word To Milosevic"

Christophe Lamfalussy editorialized in independent La Libre Belgique (9/25): "Milosevic has no other way out than staying in power. If he stepped down, it would mean that, one day, he would be brought before the ICTY in The Hague. The West has no scenario for after the elections. Diplomatic pressure is limited, except from Russia. A military intervention is not conceivable: except in case of a humanitarian catastrophe in Montenegro or Serbia, no European government is willing to repeat the Kosovo operation. Whether he wins or he loses, Milosevic remains sole master on board and retains the final word."

"Milosevic Will Not Give Up Power Just Like That"

Frank Schloemer commented in independent De Morgen (9/23): "The man who has been pulling the strings for 13 years now did not organize these accelerated elections to lose them and he will not give up power just like that. That is virtually the only certainty about these elections. As a matter of fact, Slobodan Milosevic, his family and his followers have been confronted with bigger fires than this confrontation in the election booths.... Milosevic's worst crime against his people, youth and their future is that he has turned Yugoslavia in an international pariah state that is dominated by a political and purely criminal Mafia. It is a country that is isolated diplomatically and economically bankrupt. It is a country from which thousands of well-educated people have fled and where many others are planning to do the same. It is a country without future--so long as Milosevic clings to power. That, he will try through organized electoral fraud--but much worse scenarios are possible: massive repression against all opposition; the state of emergency and even civil war. If you look at history, you will see that Milosevic will not shy from of the strongest Stalinist methods.... The temptation will be all the greater because monitoring the election procedures is virtually impossible. International observers, including European Parliamentarians and journalists, have been denied access to the country because 'Slobo' doesn't want any meddlers. The Serbian opposition lacks both the means and the potential to exercise control--while the domestic media were silenced some time ago already. There is the risk that this election will become a charade--and yet, it is of historic importance."

"ICTY Indictment Reduces Milosevic's Room To Maneuver"

Edouard Van Velthem wrote in left-of-center Le Soir (9/23): "Milosevic has lost all his wars, in Slovenia, in Krajina, and in Sarajevo. He even had to yield the most sacred province of Kosovo, the cultural and religious cradle of the Serb nation. But he was always skillful enough to conceal his failures, taking advantage of each crisis to reinforce his grip. The West has undoubtedly its share of responsibility for Milosevic's behavior. For too long, it considered Milosevic an unavoidable interlocutor for any lasting solution, before belatedly judging him the main problem in the Balkans. Even his indictment for war crimes by the ICTY is far from fulfilling his adversaries' expectations. It reduces his room to maneuver, deprives him of any escape, leaving him his presidential palace, which he gradually transformed in a besieged fortress, as his only and last safe harbor."

LITHUANIA: "Elections In Yugoslavia--Just A Game"

Ceslovas Iskauskas opined in leading, national Lietuvos Rytas (9/25): "Although the opposition leader was ahead of the current president in popularity before the elections, everyone in Yugoslavia understands that Milosevic will remain president--at first for nine months [as provided for by recent amendments to the Yugoslav constitution], and then for all time. Yesterday's elections...create an unseemly democratic precedent: Beneath the elegant sign of general and impartial elections there is evidence of the eternal dictator, [with Milosevic added] to the known galaxy: J. Stalin, S. Hussein, F. Castro, J. Broz Tito, etc."

NORWAY: "Serbian Devilry"

Independent VG commented (9/23): "Independent opinion polls made in advance shows that Milosevic is far behind his most important competitor, the lawyer Vojislav Kostunica. But the opinion polls shows that even though the support for Kostunica is large, very many believe that Slobodan Milosevic will remain in power.... The Yugoslav military leadership has already warned all 'outside powers' against sabotaging the elections. This is interpreted as a clear warning about what might happen if the opposition claims victory. In this connection it is worth noting that the American military this weekend is beginning a joint military exercise with troops in the neighbor country Croatia. Of course both Croatia and the United States are denying that the exercise has something to do with the elections in Yugoslavia. In the end it will become a settlement between the accused war criminal president and the Serbian population."

"Danger For Comprehensive Deceit"

Social democratic Dagsavisen opined (9/24): "The most exciting thing about today's election in Yugoslavia is not the actual election results but what President Slobodan Milosevic will do afterwards.... The most likely scenario is that Milosevic, independent of the election results, declares himself the winner.... But if the Serbian people decide that enough is enough and take to the streets and the regime directs the army against them, then the most somber Balkan experts may be right and a bloody and chaotic period will start."

"The Election In Yugoslavia Challenges Many"

Newspaper-of-record Aftenposten held (9/23): "The Stability Pact has already through a number of programs led to improvements for people who live in Bosnia, in Kosovo, in Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Macedonia and Albania. It doesn't move as fast everywhere, and the impatience is, understandably enough, large after a decade with war and changes. But it is at least moving forwards. That is not the fact in Yugoslavia, and especially not in Serbia.... A new leadership in Yugoslavia can make it possible to start a dialogue with the country. Then the Stability program for Southeast Europe could also include this outsider country and reach to the stability that is the goal."

POLAND: "The Serb Fuehrer"

Konrad Kolodziejski wrote in right-of-center Zycie (9/25): "After the fall of communism, there came a belief in the great power and efficiency of democracy. Democracy was supposed to be the only way for nations to achieve welfare and freedom. Therefore, there could be no place in Europe for autocratic regimes. It seemed obvious that dictatorial government was totally compromised here. The presidential elections in Yugoslavia are putting the validity of this notion to test one more time.... It appears that the Serbs are fed up with the anachronistic Milosevic clique and the prospect for a return to normalcy is the biggest hope for the kind of future which most of them welcome. It must be remembered, though, that the Serbs themselves elected Milosevic as their leader before. They had a chance to correct that mistake yesterday."

PORTUGAL: "Time Will Tell"

Luis Delgado wrote in center-left Diario de Noticias (9/25): "The expulsion of foreign journalists from Serbia...is the final blow against any vestige of liberty or legitimacy that Slobodan Milosevic could still invoke. One way or another, sooner or later, with or without fraud, Milosevic is finished. Time will tell."

SPAIN: "Yugoslavia Says Yes And No"

Barcelona's conservative La Vanguardia of Barcelona observed (9/25): "The polls give Kostunica the victory, but the absence of foreign observers and reports from impartial organizations which speak of voting irregularities make one fear the worst scenario: that Yugoslavia will remain far from its conversion to a 'normal democratic European country' as proposed by the platform which has united the opposition confronting Milosevic at the ballot box."

"Requiem For Yugoslavia"

The managing editor of Barcelona's conservative La Vanguardia wrote (9/25): "Western missiles have the amazing technical ability of consolidating the power of those they try to bring down. It happened in Iraq with Hussein and history can repeat itself in Yugoslavia with Milosevic."

EAST ASIA

SOUTH KOREA: "Yugoslavia Elections And Milosevic's Fate"

Moderate Hankook Ilbo editorialized (9/25): "All attention is now on whether opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica will beat President Milosevic in Sunday's election. For now, however, it appears that Milosevic will somehow find a way to maintain his grip on power. Realistically, therefore, it would make more sense to determine where exactly a post-election Yugoslavia is heading, and what it would mean for the entire Balkan region. In other words, the true significance of this election goes beyond the narrow interpretation of the event as a contest between a Yugoslavian tyrant and the West, as some of us have tried to portray it.... As for the role of the West, it is true that the United States and NATO have openly interfered with the election. They say the interference is for Milosevic's elimination, but they sometimes went too far by warning that they would further tighten their economic sanctions should Milosevic be reelected. Their use of money, pouring tens of thousands of dollars into the opposition's election campaign, is also questionable and leaves doubts about the truthfulness of opinion polls showing that Kostunica is ahead.... While it is true that Milosevic is an authoritarian, it is not clear if he is an extreme case whom his people truly want ousted. Besides, nationalism in Yugoslavia is still solid and strong despite the West's economic sanctions.... A weakened Milosevic and Yugoslavia is what the West ultimately seems to seek in the end. Yet, there is currently no prospect that confusion in Yugoslavia and the Balkans will diminish in the near future."

VIETNAM: "General Elections In Yugoslavia: A Referendum On Freedom"

Kim Thanh wrote in Ministry of Defense newspaper Quan doi nhan dan (9/24): "Recently, opposition candidates--especially Kostunica, who is considered the most pro-Western--have criticized the United States and the West very strongly.... Why have they turned around and acted so strangely? It may simply be because, through the election campaign, the opposition candidates have realized that a majority of Yugoslav people does not accept those who 'lick the American heel.'... It is impossible to say whether Kostunica has a chance to win. Recent changes in his thinking in favor of the national interest seem to have given many Yugoslav people a good impression of him."

FRY ELECTIONS: 'THE REAL BATTLE FOR POWER WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER ELECTIONS'