| Office of Research | Issue Focus | Foreign Media Reaction |
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Commentary from ... Europe East Asia Western Hemisphere |
| September 22, 2000 |
Milosevic's Quest For 'Legitimacy': Raising Stakes In The Balkans, Dilemmas For West
In commentary on this weekend's elections in Yugoslavia, observers in Europe, Asia and Latin America warned that the stakes in the Balkans are higher than at any time since NATO launched its air war against Serbia in March, 1999. Cautioning that "tensions are rising not only in Serbia, but also in Montenegro and Kosovo," many columnists worried about post-election violence "if things go wrong in Yugoslavia on Sunday." Regarding the election contest itself, the consensus view, as stated by London's liberal Guardian, was that "it is almost inconceivable that...[Yugoslav President ] Milosevic will voluntarily relinquish his grip on power...even if [opposition candidate and apparent front-runner Vojislav] Kostunica scores an incontrovertible victory." U.S. and EU efforts aimed at encouraging the Serbian electorate to oust Mr. Milosevic via the ballot box received mixed reviews in the press, leaving many to wonder if those actions help or hinder their cause. Analysts lamented that, of all the possible scenarios, a peaceful transition of power in Serbia is "the least likely one." Notably, many saw the election outcome--whatever it might be--as posing a dilemma for the U.S. and its Western European allies. Themes follow:
CONTENDERS: Analysts noted that opinion polls favor opposition leader Kostunica. But nearly all went on to point out that, in Mr. Milosevic's Serbia--in the words of one French daily--"it is not always the voter who counts, but the person who counts the vote." Several stressed that for Mr. Milosevic, "poll defeat is not an option," because, ultimately, it would "cost him his life" or at least his freedom--since he is under indictment by The Hague tribunal. Most in Europe agreed that his challenger, Mr. Kostunica--although no particular friend of the West--would be a "huge improvement" over Mr. Milosevic. But many other observers worried that, no matter what happens in the elections, the "Milosevic system" will survive.
U.S.: Several dailies noted the U.S.' "serious intent" to monitor the situation in FRY, reporting that it sent more Navy ships to the Adriatic. A few expressed concern about the American role. An Italian paper worried that Washington is turning Sunday's election into a final "bloody poker game" with Milosevic, and that the U.S. will raise the possibility of the use of force if Belgrade orders troops into Montenegro in the wake of the elections. In criticism reminiscent of that heard during NATO's bombing campaign, Russian and Chinese papers inveighed against "U.S.-led NATO" for continuing to interfere in FRY's internal affairs.
EU: Opinion was mixed on the EU promise to lift sanctions against Belgrade if the opposition wins. Italian and Belgian papers saw it as a united message from European diplomacy which could help clear the way for change in Serbia. But others in Britain, France and Germany deemed the offer "ill-conceived" because it leaves the Serbian opposition open to charges by the Milosevic regime that it is a "creature of NATO and the West." Paris's right-of-center Le Figaro suggested this scenario: "In linking the lifting of sanctions to the winning opposition, the 15 endorse the electoral process. It will be difficult to justify maintaining sanctions if Milosevic wins. Or else they will have to provide proof of numerous electoral frauds."
EDITOR: Diana McCaffrey and Kate Starr
EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 55 reports from 19 countries, September 14-22. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.
CROATIA: "Preventive Pressures"
Fran Visnar wrote in Zagreb-based Vjesnik (9/21): "On the eve of the September 24 Serbian elections, tensions are rising not only in Serbia, but also in Montenegro and Kosovo. The United States has decided to intensify psychological pressure on Milosevic by sending another airplane carrier and other Navy ships to the Adriatic--as 'prevention.' U.S. diplomacy is currently very active, for example, its 'fact-finding' mission with its European allies regarding possible measures in case Milosevic loses the election but refuses to give up power. The CIA and the NSA have been 'warming up' for a long time now.... Both the United States and Great Britain are exploring ways to use their special forces.... These two countries' agents are capable of cruising Montenegro (and even Serbia) disguised as Serbian policemen or soldiers.... The situation in Serbia and Montenegro requires more than just spying from the skies."
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA: "Military Defends Milosevic"
Independent, left-of-center Utrinski Vesnik (9/20) ran an analysis by its Belgrade correspondent Ivan Torov: "The fierce media campaign [in support of Milosevic]...cannot compare with the contribution made this last Saturday by the chief of the General Staff, General Pavkovic.... [He] joined the desperate attempts of the leftist coalition to avoid the increasingly certain defeat in the upcoming elections. Pavkovic noted that Sunday, September 24 is 'D Day--when we vote for freedom or slavery.' Far more alarming was his message to the public that the army will not stand by and watch Milosevic lose the elections. He said that the army would not allow 'the power to be taken by force, on the street.' With this, he made it very clear that all attempts for street demonstrations on the part of citizens to protest the expected electoral fraud will be stopped."
BRITAIN: "A Perilous Moment"
The liberal Guardian had this lead editorial (9/22): "It is almost inconceivable that Slobodan Milosevic will voluntarily relinquish his grip on power in Yugoslavia, even if his leading rival, Vojislav Kostunica, scores an incontrovertible victory in Sunday's presidential election. Out of office, Mr. Milosevic would be prey to his many enemies and some of his current friends. It is equally unlikely that a new presidential and parliamentary federal leadership in Belgrade, even one still dominated by nationalists, would not, sooner or later, bow to domestic pressure to call Mr. Milosevic to account for his innumerable misdeeds. An ex-President Milosevic might ultimately have little alternative but to flee to a foreign sanctuary. But where? The fact of the matter is that there is no hiding place for a dispossessed Mr. Milosevic--and he knows it. He has nowhere to run. So instead he runs for the presidency. For Milosevic, poll defeat is not an option."
"Again, A Balkan Crisis"
The conservative Daily Telegraph said in its lead editorial (9/22): "Mr. Kostunica is no Western stooge, despite the president's efforts to portray him as such. He wants NATO out of Kosovo, sees Montenegro as an integral component of the federation and would not surrender Milosevic, an indicted war criminal, to the international tribunal in The Hague. Nevertheless, his victory would be a setback to ultra-nationalist forces in Serbia which have reduced the republic to a criminal polity consumed with self-pity. He offers his fellow countrymen the chance of emerging from diplomatic isolation and rebuilding their ruined economy. It is in the interest of the West, and of the Balkans as a whole, that his challenge succeeds. The stakes in the Balkans this weekend are higher than at any time since NATO launched its air war against Serbia in March 1999."
"The Serbs' Hopeful Alternative"
The independent weekly Economist profiled opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica (9/22): "A military adage holds that a man under fire will show the best or the worst side of his character. Judged by that standard, Mr. Kostunica, the stolid law professor who is leading the opinion polls in Yugoslavia's presidential race, comes out rather well. In any case almost everyone, including Mr. Kostunica, agrees that he will have to endure even heavier fire...before he has any hope of unseating the Yugoslav president. The Milosevic machine, a network of loyal security chiefs, sanctions-busting criminals and political apparatchiks, is unlikely to yield power gracefully.... Given that Mr. Kostunica is so stern a critic of NATO policy, why are Western governments putting so much faith in him? The answer is that, though they know he would fight the Serb corner in a tough and consistent way, he would abide by his commitment to democracy and law--and eschew Mr. Milosevic's tactics of stirring up ethnic hatred and terror. That alone would be a huge improvement."
"Impotence Has Left West Confused"
The conservative Times had this commentary by foreign editor Bronwen Maddox (9/21): "If you have bombed a man for 79 days and he's still in place, there is not much more you can do to get him out. That is the core of the West's problem in trying to nudge the FRY elections to deliver its explicit goal--the removal of Milosevic from power. The harshest punishment available has already been delivered. Its target...has every incentive to cling to power by illegitimate means if necessary. If he does, there is little the West can do. The behavior of the EU and the United States in the past few weeks has emphasized that impotence. Their publicly-trumpeted policies have been a curious mix of bluntness and vagueness which may even prove counterproductive. But behind the scenes they have pulled off one important change in weaning Moscow off its reflexive support for Belgrade.... In the likely event that Mr. Milosevic stays in power, and the United States and Europe are forced to sit it out, deploying their very limited range of tools, their hopes of eventually easing him from power will depend partly on Russia's tolerance of their actions, if not its support."
"Yugoslav Elections"
Glasgow's centrist Herald editorialized (9/20): "After 13 rancorous, murderous years in power, President Milosevic is facing the fact of his growing unpopularity. But the truth is what it has always been. Milosevic holds all the levers of power, including the armed forces, and as long as his grip on them is sustained by the self-interest or fear of senior officers and party apparatchiks, he will be able to cling on to office and continue to make mischief.... As always in these sort of situations, it is useful if the ruling regime can point to external threats. In that context, the intervention by the EU, which offered this week to lift sanctions against Yugoslavia if the electorate voted Milosevic out of power, was ill-considered. It did no favors for the opposition which was thus left open to characterization by the Milosevic-controlled media as creatures of NATO and the West.... It is obvious that the EU's offer stands a good chance of backfiring."
"Only Hope For Opposition Is Unity"
The centrist Independent's lead editorial judged (9/19): "This is a crucial week for the Balkans. Sunday's elections in Belgrade could prove historic. The opinion polls are running strongly against Slobodan Milosevic. Theoretically, this could be the endgame. There are, however, many ifs and buts. The chances of an opposition victory, followed by a peaceful handover of power, are small. Partly, that is because support for Vojislav Kostunica is far from united, even now.... Many opposition supporters believe that even if a clear majority does vote for Mr. Kostunica, that victory will not be reflected in the official results. The possibility of ballot-rigging are many, and Mr. Milosevic has been happy to go down that road before.... Yugoslavia today is highly unstable--not least because, in the event of a Milosevic victory, the little reformist republic of Montenegro may yet secede. Serbs need to know that, if they press for democracy, Yugoslavia can receive the political and economic help that it desperately needs. For the moment, there is little sign of that."
FRANCE: "Milosevic Seems Determined To Hold Onto Power In Yugoslavia"
Christine Holzbauer-Madison filed from Zagreb in centrist La Tribune (9/22): "While a crucial judgment on the future of Yugoslavia, the presidential and legislative elections do not mean that Slobodan Milosevic will voluntarily renounce his power.... In the case of an opposition victory, Milosevic can maintain power until the end of his term in July 2001. This could give him ample time to modify a new constitution and make the newly elected president illegitimate."
"Tense Presidential Election In Yugoslavia"
Alain Guillemoles filed from Belgrade for Catholic La Croix (9/21): "The sky is stormy over Yugoslavia.... According to the opposition candidate, the regime is ready to stuff the ballot boxes with the votes of more than a million Kosovo Albanians who are still reported on the electoral lists.... Everybody seems ready to express their determination in the street, with demonstrations already scheduled for the days after the ballot."
"Milosevic's Unexpected Rival"
Jean Michel Demetz commented in right-of-center weekly L'Express (9/21): "Nationalist and anti-communist, Vojislav Kostunica presents himself as the white knight. Will his popularity overcome the unavoidable ballot stuffing at the polls?... To ensure he remains in power, Milosevic endlessly refers to the old thesis of foreign conspiracy.... Under normal conditions, Kostunica...should win. But in Milosevic's Serbia, it is not always the voter who counts, but the person who counts the vote.... A victory of the opposition would be a 'stolen election' said the president's wife. Goran Matic, the information minister has already denounced plans for a coup prepared by the Americans for the evening of September 24. Is this to better prepare the Serbs for a last minute maneuver?"
"The Last Card For Milosevic"
Renaud Girard filed from Belgrade in right-of-center Le Figaro (9/20): "For the first time, the Yugoslav president will be elected by universal suffrage.... Never in their history have the Serbs had such a clear and decisive choice to make, a well as such a big chance to influence, one way or another, the future of their country.... Can Milosevic really lose his bet? At the beginning of the summer, the party was still very confident due to its strong assets.... But in August, the wind suddenly changed. The great majority of the Democratic opposition parties has shown clever proof in choosing Kostunica as their only candidate."
"The Trap Of The Yugoslav Ballot"
Pierre Rousselin opined in right-of-center Le Figaro (9/20): "If we believe the polls, Slobodan Milosevic may well be defeated in the presidential election.... If he wins, it will be up to the opponents and their friends to prove there has been an electoral fraud, which will not be an easy task in a country that has no tradition of freedom. If...Milosevic comes to accept his defeat, how could we not pay tribute to this gesture?... In both cases, the EU may well find itself trapped. In linking the lifting of sanctions to the winning opposition, the Fifteen endorse
the electoral process. It will be difficult to justify the maintaining of sanctions if Milosevic wins. Or else they will have to provide proof of numerous electoral frauds."
GERMANY: "Kostunica Fever In Serbia"
Boris Kalnoky noted in right-of-center Die Welt of Hamburg (9/21): "[Despite widespread support for Kostunica,] the West is most likely miscalculating the situation in the Balkans, as it has done many times before. Once again the West is overestimating the potential of the protest against Milosevic; once again it is underestimating the dictator's inventiveness and resourcefulness. The Kostunica fever is only one side of the coin. The other side is a deep pessimism. Members of the opposition know they hardly have a fair chance at all of winning and that every dissident must fear personal consequences after the election. This election may be a last opportunity, and Kostunica's success is indeed baffling. But in the end, many perceive the current situation as a march into a dead-end. [Yet]...for the first time, it appears possible to get rid of Milosevic, but those pursuing this goal have to fear death."
"Serbia's Chance"
Manfred Pantfoerder suggested in right-of-center Berliner Morgenpost (9/21): "Everything indicates that the Milosevic system will continue to survive. It does not matter what happens in the presidential election.... After all, the fractured opposition camp is not likely to do well in the simultaneously held parliamentary election. Ultra-nationalists, Milosevic's Socialists, and the left-wing party of his wife Mira Markovic...form a solid block. They all profit from a corrupt system held together by nationalism and anti-Western sentiment."
"Slobodan's World"
Peter Muench noted in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (9/20): "In reality, the West and the opposition have been trapped by Milosevic. By agreeing to the elections, which [the opposition] had to do in order to have any chance at all, they have accepted the rules by which Milosevic seeks to achieve his goals. All of this is going to have very real consequences. Despite Milosevic's interest in creating confusion, two things are quite clear in Yugoslavia: First, Milosevic cannot give up power, because it would cost him his life or at least his freedom. Second, elections in Yugoslavia do not depend on polls or votes cast, but simply on votes counted."
"The Last Battle"
Stephan Israel judged in an editorial in centrist Tagesspiegel of Berlin (9/20): "Even if Kostunica won the presidency due to popular pressure from the streets, he would not be much more than a transitional figure. Kostunica would initiate Serbia's return to the community of states. EU representatives have already put out their hand with the offer to end sanctions in case of an opposition victory. However, Serbia's painful return to Europe will require the emergence of new forces--unknown men and women who do not carry the burden of the nationalist sins resting upon the shoulders of today's politicians."
"Self-Recognition"
According to right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (9/19): "One must be allowed to ask whether the interference by the EU in the election process will harm Milosevic's regime or serve it. It is advisable to be careful, because nobody knows what the fragmented opposition with its rival leaders would do in case of an election victory. Mostly, however, it is necessary to understand that the Serbs will not be able to escape their political isolation unless they themselves tear apart the web of nationalistic myths in which they have been caught. External help cannot replace self-recognition."
"EU Promises"
In the view of right-of-center Fuldaer Zeitung (9/19): "It remains questionable whether the Serbs will be influenced by EU promises to end the sanctions and provide economic assistance. Once before, when the NATO bombs had missed their targets and the West wrongly believed the Serbian people would get rid of Milosevic, the international community had to admit its helplessness. From this perspective, the latest EU maneuver is nothing more than an expression of powerlessness in the face of an ethnic conflict which neither politicians nor soldiers have been able to solve."
"Belgrade's Involuntary Helpers"
Business-oriented Financial Times Deutschland of Hamburg emphasized (9/19): "The EU statement [regarding the lifting of sanctions if the opposition wins on Sunday] contains nothing new. It has long been known that the sanctions are aimed at Milosevic's regime and would be lifted in case of a power change in Belgrade. It is also known that a democratically governed Serbia would benefit from EU support payments for the Balkans. But the renewed emphasis on these plans strengthens the impression in Serbia that the West is meddling in domestic matters. The Serbs remember only too well the NATO bombing raids on roads, bridges and factories. Opposition leader Kostunica is finding it even more difficult now to credibly convey that he is not a 'hired gun of the West,' as the state media like to call members of the opposition."
ITALY: "'We Are Ready To Shoot'"
Renato Caprile filed from Podgorica in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (9/22): "'There is a NATO plan to infiltrate the country with foreign troops wearing Yugoslav uniforms. And this will happen on Sunday, on election day,' General Nebojsa Pavkovic...stated on Montenegrin TV.... At midnight, the Yugoslav campaign ended in this heavy atmosphere of threats and suspicions. The Yugoslav chief of staff accuses NATO of plotting a destabilizing plan. Those who swear that Milosevic will lose tell us that the Serbian president might invoke the threat of disorders, proclaim a state of emergency and declare the vote void. A terrible scenario, indeed. Polls indicate that Milosevic will lose.... Good news, then, for those who hope for a democratic change. But it is too early to say. The American-sponsored polls...are just polls, and the two polling institutes conducting them are close to the opposition. The truth is that the game looks very uncertain."
"Kostunica Beats Milosevic On The Electoral Podium"
Giuseppe Zaccaria filed from Podgorica in centrist, influential La Stampa (9/21): "Slobodan Milosevic made the announced rally on the other side of the border. By helicopter, he went to Berane, a pro-Serbian enclave in Montenegro. A slap to the democratic Montenegro, a sneer to the West, but then also an unexpected appeal to voters.... The president, who in a few days may be naked...used all the tools of his power.... Meanwhile, what was happening last evening in Belgrade did give reasons for hope. Parliament Square was full...of people ready to support Kostunica.... Yugoslavia has only three days left to decide. Then, for the first time in ten years, there will be normality or, for sure, the Flood."
"Yugoslavia Votes And Risk Of Civil War Is Real"
A front-page editorial in provocative, classical liberal Il Foglio held (9/21): "Kostunica has a good chance to win...but some observers are convinced that on Sunday night both the regime and the opposition will proclaim their victories and the most dangerous week in ten years will begin.... The United States has already spent $35 million to support the opposition."
"Lack Of Evidence Will Be Problematic"
Elena Ragusin observed from Belgrade in leading, business Il Sole-24 Ore (9/20): "In the absence of any international, neutral control whatsoever--refused by the Belgrade government--anything can happen in the secrecy of electoral booths, and everybody will be able to denounce the alleged tricks of the others without being able to provide evidence: This is the main problem in Sunday's elections in Serbia and Montenegro."
"A Slap To Montegrin Government"
A report from Belgrade in Rome's centrist Il Tempo held (9/20): "Milosevic's visit to Montenegro is a slap to the reformist, pro-Western local government, which has decided to boycott the elections.... On the eve of the elections, the United States has announced the arrival of the George Washington aircraft carrier in the Adriatic Sea. The decision confirms the serious interest with which Clinton continues to monitor the situation in the Balkans. The United States has already invested $35 million to support the groups which oppose President Milosevic in the elections."
"EU: 'Get Rid Of Milosevic'"
Brussels correspondent Adriana Cerretelli maintained in leading, business-oriented Il Sole-24 Ore (9/19): "European diplomacy has rarely gone so far in the past, probably because it has been even more rare for it to...achieve the necessary unity to do so. But this happened yesterday in Brussels, where EU foreign ministers found themselves in agreement on...an 18-line document that represents an open invitation to overthrow the Belgrade government with the September 24 elections.... European pressure could not have been stronger and clearer, as tensions in the Balkans grow, and Montenegro constantly appears to be at risk. Nobody can rule out the possibility that the Belgrade strongman may avoid electoral defeat this time around. The European and international reaction in this case would depend on the judgment on the correctness of the vote. In case of verified fraud, possible countermeasures might include punitive military actions which, apparently, would be supported by the United States."
"Pentagon Report Will Raise Disputes In Washington, Belgrade"
New York correspondent Arturo Zampaglione writes in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (9/17): "The dossier, which will be made public by the Pentagon on Monday, will certainly raise disputes both in Washington and in Belgrade. A few days before the elections in Serbia, the Milosevic government will use the occasion of the report to denounce once again the 'occupation' of Kosovo, at the same time when there are new pressures in Congress for the withdrawal of U.S. soldiers from the Balkans. In particular, the Republicans want to blackmail the European allies, beginning with Italy, by subordinating the presence of U.S. troops to the increase of the economic contribution from the other countries."
"Belgrade: Toward The Vote With Fear"
Belgrade correspondent Elena Ragusin commented in leading, business-oriented Il Sole-24 Ore (9/19): "Tension in Yugoslavia is sky high and never, over the last ten years, has there been an electoral campaign with such tough language and content. After all, the stakes are extremely high, since Milosevic struggles for his survival, perhaps not only political. The 'strongman of the Balkans' for 12 years cannot afford to lose--today more than ever before, due to The Hague International Tribunal's warrant of arrest that prevents a soft way out for him."
"The Final Game Against Milosevic"
A commentary by Lucio Caracciolo in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica held (9/19): "Before the end of his mandate, Bill Clinton would very much like to rid himself and the world of Slobodan Milosevic. For some time Washington has been trying to turn the September 24 elections in Yugoslavia into the last round of the bloody poker game with 'the fox of the Balkans.' Two possible scenarios involve the use of force: If Milosevic orders his paramilitary troops into Montenegro, and possibly into Kosovo and Macedonia, in order to avoid a possible defeat in the elections; or if Milosevic wins due to electoral fraud, in which case it may be the Kosovar extremists who launch an offensive against Serbian enclaves. In both cases, Italy risks being involved along with its NATO partners.... The trouble is that last year's 'humanitarian war' has widened the Atlantic. When the Americans sound out the Europeans on a possible intervention in Montenegro, they find a wall of no's.... Nobody in Europe intends to put the lives of its soldiers at risk for ambiguous or unlikely goals. An opposite process is instead developing on the other side of the Atlantic. For the few Americans who follow the situation in the Balkans, it all boils down to getting rid of the Serbian leader, one way or the other. As for the post-Milosevic future, they could not care less. In any case, it will be our (European) business."
"U.S. Soldiers Risk Being Overwhelmed By Shame In Kosovo""
A report from Pristina in centrist, influential La Stampa said (9/17): "Violence, threats, all kinds of abuses, and the U.S. soldiers risk being overwhelmed by shame in Kosovo, where they should be guaranteeing the security of both the Serbian and the Kosovar populations. Not an easy task for anybody.... The fact is that for the Americans, the situation is even more complicated--perhaps due to a wrong approach or, more simply, because their preparation has been insufficient."
RUSSIA: "Yugoslavia To Make Political Choice"
Centrist army Krasnaya Zvezda (9/22) ran this by Yuri Pankov: "Yugoslavia is not just poised to elect a head of state. In a way, it is to make a political choice. It, naturally, has to do so after the bombing, with NATO troops in Kosovo and the population under enormous pressure. Under other circumstances, the rivalry between Slobodan Milosevic and Vojislav Kostunica might have been quite impressive. While the former calls for a 'referendum on freedom or colonialism,' the latter urges a vote for a 'normal democratic European country.'"
"Strife Inspired From Outside"
Official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (9/21) ran this by Konstantin Chugunov in Sarajevo: "Recent years have seen a bitter political struggle in Yugoslavia. It has been inspired from outside for the most part. There has been a lot of pressure from the NATO countries.... This time...Milosevic has to act on a dead certainty. His defeat would be an end to the entire power structure (whether that is good or bad is another question). He is fighting to stay in office for another four years now that the United States and NATO are out to gain total domination in the Balkans."
"Free-for-All EU Style"
Vladimir Katin filed from Brussels for centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (9/21): "A free-for-all attitude has become habitual for EU members in their dealings with Yugoslavia. A few days before the general elections in that country, 15 EU nations published an 'address to the Serbian people,' urging them not to vote for Slobodan Milosevic. NATO, too, has been sending signals that it would be happy to see a 'Milosevic-less Yugoslavia' among its members. Evidently, the European capitals have decided that, after clobbering Yugoslavia, they can disregard it completely."
"Not To Recognize, Not To Topple"
Alexander Ivanitsky analyzed the situation in Serbia for reformist Novye Izvestia (9/20): "The presidential election in Yugoslavia...has prompted various forms of electoral activities in and outside the country, all of which are thoroughly predictable and predictably ineffective.... The Serbs will vote for Milosevic no matter what names he is called: slighted national, and even imperial, since pride outweighs the desire for any personal freedoms."
BELGIUM: "Acting With Unanimity"
Axel Buyse judged in independent Catholic De Standaard (9/22): "The EU...has set up a crisis center in Brussels to follow Yugoslavia closely. NATO...is demonstrating its readiness with light maneuvers on the border with Kosovo and the rest of Yugoslavia. The Yugoslav army chief and opposition leaders...warn against bloodshed after Sunday. Yugoslavia is preparing for a shock.... On Thursday in Brussels...EU High Representative Javier Solana gathered a few dozen diplomats and military people in a crisis center which is to monitor...events in Serbia and Montenegro.... Solana hopes to decrease the chance that the EU member states, as in the past...react individually to violent developments in the Balkans. The goal is for the Union to react unanimously if things go wrong in Yugoslavia on Sunday."
"Following The Elections From Brussels"
Conservative Catholic La Libre Belgique reported (9/21): "Some 30 European diplomats and military people will follow the elections in Yugoslavia closely. EU High Representative Javier Solana has established a 'communication center' in Brussels--like the 'situation room' that the Americans know well. Their objective is to stay in permanent contact with the Serbian opposition and to coordinate a reaction in the European capitals if need be. In Belgrade, the EU has six ambassadors. The Swedish representative will be the coordinator on the spot."
"Serbia: Suicide Or Resurrection"
Edouard Van Velthem editorialized in left-of-center Le Soir (9/20): "Whatever the outcome of the vote on Sunday, and even if the miracle happens, no one should expect any immediate emotional burst.... In this delicate context, old political disagreements have quickly surfaced again among the Allies. The West, obviously, has a considerable role to play in the ongoing process. But it must do so with tact and discretion, by not offending the parties' sensibilities, but by respecting their legitimate sovereignty. The EU has understood this: It raised the debate to the theme of values, it suggested a 'radical revision' of its strategy, and promised to lift the sanctions against Belgrade if the 'good choice' was made in the polling stations. On the contrary, trapped by its obsession to get rid of Milosevic, the United States remains more ambiguous, less eager to see the opposition win than to settle a score with a regime which challenged it, like, some time ago, Saddam Hussein's Iraq."
"Firm Action Proposed"
EU affairs writer Bernard Bulcke reported in independent, Catholic De Standaard (9/19): "In a firm 'Message to the Serbian People,' the 15 EU countries call upon the Serbs to vote President Slobodan Milosevic out in next Sunday's elections. If that happens, there will soon be aid; the sanctions will be lifted, and there may even be 'rapprochement' with the EU.... As an extra means of pressure, the EU countries also approved the French plan to organize a European summit in Zagreb, Croatia, on November 24 between EU leaders and the countries that were part of Yugoslavia in the past, plus Albania. The objective is to reach a decision there on the rapprochement promised."
"NATO On Trial In Belgrade: Milosevic's Election Stunt"
Frank Schloemer held in independent De Morgen (9/14): "In the meantime in Belgrade, a show trial has started against the former NATO chief Javier Solana and the leaders of the countries that participated in the bombings of Yugoslavia in 1999.... Naturally, the defendants will be absent and they will be defended by lawyers nominated by the regime in Belgrade. Observers consider the 'trial' an election stunt by Milosevic who wants to remind the people of the bombings on their country during the Kosovo war. Expectations are that the verdict will fall before Sunday."
FINLAND: "Milosevic Playing A Cold-Blooded Game
Leading, independent Helsingin Sanomat editorialized (9/20): "As no illusions about honest elections exist, one might expect the outside world to encourage Serbian voters to boycott the undemocratic election. In fact, the opposite has been done. Even the EU foreign ministers urged the voters to active participation to bring about democratic changes. The EU would then lift the sanctions against Yugoslavia, which in any case have proved inefficient and benefited Milosevic rather than the opposition. The EU's attitude on the Yugoslav situation reflects the prevailing helplessness. Effective means missing, one can only hope that the time for miracles hasn't passed: What if the voters were exceptionally active and turned their backs on Milosevic so convincingly that cheating on the results would prove impossible. The open support expressed by the outside world for opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica has made it easier to abuse him as a NATO lackey, even though he is known as a tough anti-NATO nationalist. Milosevic's game would not be over even if he lost the first round. The results could be invalidated under some pretext, or Milosevic could remain in office even if he lost, in accordance with some interpretations of the constitution, until next July, the end of his original term. Milosevic has other reasons to cling to power than pure lust for power or belief in his indispensability: as elected president he would feel safe from the Hague War Tribunal. For a former president, the situation could be different."
"Either By Violence Or Fraud, Milosevic Feared To Secure Election"
Independent Aamulehti opined (9/19): "However the voting goes, it is feared that Milosevic will secure an election victory either by violence or fraud. Yugoslavia has no way out of the international blockade as long as Milosevic and his mob rule in Belgrade. This is a strong trump card for Kostunica who, despite the fact that he is a strong nationalist, wants to resume relations with the West. But what will happen to Kosovo? Will Kostunica be more flexible than Milosevic and what solution would also be acceptable to Kosovo's Albanian majority? Kostunica's election victory might create a new situation, but...it would be as difficult for him to give up Kosovo as for the Kosovo Albanians to accept a return to Serbian rule."
HUNGARY: "Can Milosevic Lose?"
Endre Aczel opined in top-circulation Nepszabadsag (9/21): "Inspired by the belief that, through some miracle, the election committee [of Yugoslavia] will announce the true results, the EU has promised the citizens of Yugoslavia to lift the sanctions against their country if they vote Milosevic out of power. I do not know what the effect of this message is (it can be taken for granted that it has not even reached the majority of citizens), but if it encourages people to vote for the opposition in larger numbers than expected, and Milosevic loses by 20-30 percent, then such a large-scale fraud would be required to keep him in power that perhaps even his own men would not dare to commit. If the opposition wins by a small margin, [Milosevic's side] is certain to steal the election."
"Crimes In The Balkans"
Evelyn Forro wrote in influential, liberal Magyar Hirlap (9/20): "Vojislav Kostunica said that he wanted no retaliation, and neither would Milosevic be handed over to the War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague if the opposition wins. This statement caused no surprise whatsoever, since nationalism is not alien from the thinking of the opposition either, and many thought last year that NATO's bombing of Yugoslavia was unjust. It is a big question to what extent people [in Yugoslavia] believe, or want to believe, that the West is to blame; or, to put it more simply, for how long can they be manipulated through their credulousness, what's more, through their nationalism. Not a single word has been uttered about who the real war criminals are, who are the ones to blame for the wars on the Balkans, and for the dead in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo."
IRELAND: "Milosevic Does Not Operate Within Straightforward Parameters"
The moderately conservative Irish Times editorialized (9/21): "Simple arithmetic suggests defeat for President Slobodan Milosevic in Sunday's Yugoslav presidential election.... Mr. Milosevic, however, does not operate within straightforward parameters, such as respect for the will of the people. He and his supporters have rigged elections in the past and there is little reason to suspect that they will not do so again.... Only hopelessly committeed optimists expect Mr. Milosevic to accept defeat in a democratic manner. He is not, after all, a democrat."
PORTUGAL: "In Southeast Europe, With Hope"
Former Azores Regional President and opposition PSD MP J. B. Mota Amaral wrote in respected, center-left Diário de Notícias (9/16): "The Stability Pact is the (to a certain extent compensatory) result of the not-very-glorious Kosovo War, demonstrating to the Balkans that the Western Allies have more than bombs to confront their specific problems.... So far there have been many declarations of principle and many promises, but the restoration projects for infrastructure--whether simply obsolete or in fact destroyed by the war--and for the promotion of economic activity remain static, due to a lack of financial resources. The black shadow of Milosevic's dictatorial regime looms over Southeast Europe.... Despite the many factors of incertainty that still exist--and that will not even be easily or rapidly overcome--the Stability Pact has kindled a light of hope for the countries and the peoples of the Balkans. We must do everything we can to avoid letting it go out."
"Elections Made To Measure"
Belgrade correspondent Svetlana Djurdjevic-Lukic wrote in top-circulation weekly Expresso (9/16): "The repression of the opposition, as well as the possibility that Milosevic might end up at The Hague Tribunal if he loses, are raising fears that the Belgrade regime might stage an incident, falsify the election results or refuse to give up power.... The opposition has been not been given any chance to verify the milion-and-a-half signatures collected by the Milosevic candidacy. They may have been obtained under pressure at state enterprises, and it is possible that civil servants, soldiers and police have received ballots with Milosevic's name already filled in.... The official 'media' don't even mention the possibility of a second round of presidential voting.... This, when surveys show that Milosevic has no way of getting more than half the votes in the first round, and in fact trails Kostunica. But in Serbia, what the surveys say is not necessarily what happens at the polls."
"Serbia For Milosevic: A Matter OF Life And Death"
Rebecca Abecassis wrote in weekly O Independente (9/15): "Considering the continued repression exercised by Milosevic's police forces to convince the electorate to vote for him, the path to electoral fraud is becoming more and more wide open.... The end seems to justify the means. The insults, the blackmail, the corruption, the kidnappings--and the assassinations--are some of the ways to convince the voters.... Despite the not-too-clean methods being used by the [Belgrade] Establishment to win the elections, Milosevic is running greater risks than ever. Indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague, the Serbian leader cannot risk losing these elections, since that would make him more vulnerable to potential extradition. For the coalition in power, the elections on September 24 are in fact a matter of life and death."
SPAIN: "Yugoslav Scenarios"
Barcelona's conservative La Vanguardia asked (9/21): "Can votes accomplish what NATO's bombs could not? Let's consider various scenarios for the day after the elections: The opposition gets the victory, Milosevic remains in office, or the electoral result is mixed.... And there could be another scenario: A victory for Milosevic in the presidential elections and victory for the opposition in the parliamentary elections.... This outcome, which seems the most probable, would not close the Milosevic matter...since two thirds of the federal parliament can remove the president.... However, an even worse possibility exists: Each one of the two declares itself the winner, accuses the other of fraud and leaves the road clear for Milosevic to embark on another violent campaign against the opposition."
"Milosevic's Ballot Boxes"
Center-left El Pais observed (9/20): "The Fifteen have gotten into the ironical situation of calling for a vote through elections which are tainted in advance. No one can in good faith believe that Milosevic--charged as a war criminal by The Hague Tribunal, and having altered the constitution to be re-elected--would be disposed to allow the position which constitutes his only guarantee of survival to be snatched away.... Belgrade has done everything to rule out miracles, including vetoing the presence of international observers. As if the complete absence of guarantees in which the elections are unfolding were not enough, Milosevic has two depots of potential fraud in Kosovo and Montenegro. In Kosovo, where the UN is keeping itself on the margins of the elections, and in divided Montenegro...because the pro-Milosevic faction, which can pile up as much as 30 percent of the vote, alleges intimidation and has announced that it will not accept the supervision of the polling places by Montenegrin forces."
SWEDEN: "In The Mind Of Milosevic"
Liberal tabloid Expressen carried this op-ed by columnist Anna Dahlberg (9/21): "What is on Slobodan Milosevic's mind, when he walks back and forth in his presidential palace in Belgrade?... It is obvious that he has made a gross miscalculation. He thought he would win comfortably over a quarrelsome and despised opposition. Instead a relatively unknown and unstained candidate (Voijislav Kostunica) entered the stage and got the confidence of the Serbs. But there is no one who believes that Milosevic will voluntarily leave his position...and the best guess is that Milosevic will get his victory by cheating. Primarily in Kosovo there are great opportunities for manipulating the voting. However, should the electoral rigging become too conspicuous, there is a risk of a popular uprising.... However, Milosevic can acknowledge that he has been defeated by Kostunica and choose, in accordance with the constitution, to keep his position until his mandate expires next summer. Another option for him would be to transfer into another position, for example the one as the Serb prime minister.... A victory for Kostunica therefore is no guarantee of a change in Serbia. As long as Milosevic keeps his grip on key national institutions, he will remain in power.... A shift in power would radically reduce the risk of conflicts in the region, but the Serbian nightmare is not over yet. Of all scenarios, a peaceful transition of power in Serbia seems the least likely one."
TURKEY: "Attention To Sanjak"
Fikret Ertan wrote in religious/intellectual Zaman (9/16): "September 24 signifies the most important date in Yugoslavia because with the results of the upcoming election, there is a good chance the Milosevic administration will end.... The Bosnian Muslims in Sanjak are trying to make their voices heard in the international arena during this election campaign. This community is struggling for survival under every kind of economic, political, religious, ethnic and other pressures.... It should be considered as our primary duty to support this group of patriots in Sanjak. During the election campaign, the groups in Sanjak are facing embargo both from the state as well as the Serbian community.... The situation in Sanjak unfortunately is neglected by international media, including the Turkish media. In fact, we should be seeing just the opposite because Sanjak is a very important issue, both in terms of the Balkans' strategy and the Muslim community in the Balkans."
CHINA: "National Sovereignty Cannot Be Insulted"
Yan Zhen and Ma Jian wrote in official Communist Party People's Daily (Renmin Ribao, 9/22): "Since the U.S.-led NATO bombing of Yugoslavia last year, the Western countries have continued to barbarically interfere in Yugoslavia's internal affairs under the guise 'human rights taking precedence over sovereignty.' In an attempt to overthrow the sitting Yugoslav government, the United States and other Western countries have stepped up efforts to isolate Yugoslavia and have tried their utmost to support the opposition party."
JAPAN: "Gauging Washington's Reaction"
Conservative Sankei's Washington correspondent Nishida observed (9/22): "The Clinton administration is already...intensifying moves intended to deal a setback to Yugoslav President Milosevic.... The United States has joined the EU in proposing the lifting of sanctions...in exchange for Milosevic's resignation. As things stand, the U.S. government may be able to force Milosevic out of office. However, the irony is that Vojislav Kostunica...has taken an anti-U.S. stance by calling the United States 'undemocratic' and 'authoritarian.' What if another anti-American leader assumes the reins of Yugoslavia? What will Washington's reaction be?"
SOUTH KOREA: "A Possible Regime Change In Yugoslavia"
Won Jae-yun wrote in conservative Segye Ilbo (9/18): "A possible regime change has become more probable in Yugoslavia, with the strongest opposition candidate, Vojislav Kostunica, further widening his lead over President Slobodan Milosevic in the polls by a factor of two-to-one. Kostunica's rise in the polls is a clear indication that the electorate has grown tired of Milosevic's tyranny. Kostunica's reputation as an uncorrupted opposition leader also greatly contributed to his popularity. The international community, including the United States, which is making efforts to get rid of Milosevic, has also provided Kostunica with important momentum.... With Milosevic trailing in the polls, fear of terrorism has spread. The future of the entire Balkan region is at stake in this election."
ARGENTINA: "Elections In A Country That No Longer Exists"
Narciso Binayan Carmona, daily-of-record La Nacion's international columnist, asked (9/18): "Can we expect a miracle in Yugoslavia? Is there any possibility that Slobodan Milosevic will lose elections? Or, more precisely, that fraud will not be committed?... Basically, two great coalitions and two candidates will compete--Slobodan Milosevic and Vojislav Kostunica.... Montenegro has decided to refrain from voting. The 'democratic promises' from the opposition are of no interest to Montenegro.... Some believe that this will allow Milosevic to win. And Montenegro's abstention would mean its first step in leaving the Federation, which would leave Serbia with no ports.... There are other very complex points: The Serbian part of Bosnia, which Milosevic would want to join with his country; the millions non-Slavs who continue to be potential voters--first of all Albanians from Kosovo, who are legally part of Yugoslavia; secondly, the strong Hungarian minority from Vojvodina...and, moreover, the Serbs' obvious lack of understanding of Yugoslavia's reality."
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