TV Program on Yugoslav Elections with Schulte Sept. 18
WORLDNET TELEVISION "WASHINGTON WINDOW"
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF STATE
Office of Broadcast Services
Washington, D.C.
September 18, 2000
GUEST: Greg Schulte, Special Assistant to the President, and Director,
Southeast European Affairs, National Security Council
TOPIC: Upcoming Serbian Elections
HOST: Jim Bertel
DATE: September 18, 2000
TIME: 10:00 - 11:00 EDT
(Begin videotape.)
MR. BERTEL: Hi, I'm Jim Bertel. Welcome to "Washington Window," where
we discuss today's most important issues one on one with leading
newsmakers.
Free and fair elections and the transfer of power are critical tests
of a country's political system. On September 24th, these important
tenets will be put to the test as voters in the former Yugoslavia head
to the polls to choose their next president. Recent surveys show
President Slobodan Milosevic lagging behind. But these numbers are
meaningless if, as expected, President Milosevic and his supporters
rig the elections. The international community has thrown its support
to the opposition candidate, with the European Union promising to
reward democratic change in Yugoslavia, telling Serbs a place in
Europe awaits them if they vote to oust Milosevic.
Last week the Western powers were joined by Russia in calling for
democratic standards to be observed in the election. Meeting at the
first ministerial Contact Group session on the Balkans since the war
in Kosovo, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said the
international community needs to do all it can to ensure the
presidential and parliamentary elections are fair.
SECRETARY ALBRIGHT: What is important here is that the opposition in
Serbia continues to work very hard for these elections which
unfortunately we are concerned that Milosevic will steal. But I think
that it is important therefore for the international community and for
the Serbian people to be vigilant throughout the whole process,
especially the accounting process, so that they can expose what
happened and reject the results if the election is stolen.
MR. BERTEL: Several opinion polls conducted since late August show the
main opposition candidate, Vojislav Kostunica, well ahead of
Milosevic, who has been indicted by the U.N. War Crimes Tribunal for
alleged crimes against humanity in Kosovo.
But no matter whom they vote for, the one thing voters do agree on is
that the time has come for change.
MAN ON THE STREET (through interpreter): If nothing is changed now,
who knows when there will be our next chance for that?
WOMAN ON THE STREET (through interpreter): Frankly, I don't even like
Kostunica that much, but I will vote for him because something has to
change, because this can no longer be endured.
MR. BERTEL: Vojislav Kostunica, the joint candidate of more than a
dozen opposition parties, is seen by many as the only hope for change.
Lacking the charisma and fiery campaign bravado of Western
politicians, Kostunica is acceptable to a broad range of Serbs not as
much for who he is but for who he isn't. He isn't the political
insider who has made deals with Milosevic, and has never enriched
himself through politics.
Earlier this month Kostunica officially kicked off his campaign on the
steps of the parliament building in Belgrade, saying this election
will decide the country's future:
MR. KOSTUNICA (through interpreter): Though our campaign is beginning
formally today, the largest part of that road we have crossed, which
is one that's forward, one that follows elections, and that means one
that follows naturally democratic (changes ?).
MR. BERTEL: His supporters are optimistic, saying if Kostunica can win
by a large enough majority even President Milosevic may not be able to
steal the election.
(End videotape.)
MR. BERTEL: Few expect that even if Mr. Milosevic were to lose the
election he would abide by the results, given his record of tampering
with earlier ballots. If so, the question then would be whether he
would seize another term by force rather than accept the diminished
status of private citizen wanted for war crimes. That question could
be answered in just a matter of days.
On today's "Washington's Window," we will discuss Sunday's elections
in the former Yugoslavia, and their potential effect on the region,
with Greg Schulte, special assistant to the president and director for
Southeast European affairs at the National Security Council. Mr.
Schulte, thank you very much for being with us at this critical time.
As you know, a number of polls show Mr. Milosevic well behind in these
final days of the campaign, and yet with his reputation for stealing
elections, no one would be surprised if he comes out on top next
Sunday. How will we know if the elections were fair or rigged, and
what is the West prepared to do if Mr. Milosevic steals the election?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, Milosevic is clearly worried, Jim, about the
circumstance he finds himself into. He has already taken steps to make
these elections less than free and fair. He has taken steps against
the independent media, he has taken steps against the opposition, and
he has manipulated the constitution in his favor. So he is already
trying to set these elections. But he and those around him are clearly
worried about what is going to take place in this election, and we
expect that they will use old tactics that they have used before to
attempt to steal them.
What's difficult for Milosevic and for the people around him, for the
apparatchiks, is that at the time of these elections this is probably
the biggest challenge that he is ever going to face, as we see from
the polls. So he will try to steal it. But I think it will become
apparent if he steals it -- both because of international monitoring,
even though Milosevic has banned the OSCE [Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe] from going in; but also because the
Democratic opposition is organizing itself to watch very closely what
happens on election day.
MR. BERTEL: Certainly this election is important. Mr. Kostunica is
ahead by some polls as much as two to one. Do you think Mr. Milosevic,
if he in fact loses the popular vote on Sunday, would step aside
willingly?
MR. SCHULTE: I think that President Milosevic would be very reluctant
to step aside. His main goal over the past years has been to remain in
power, and he would use whatever means that would be available to him
to remain in power. In fact, if you look at the disappearance some
weeks ago of the former president of Serbia, Mr. Stambolic, this is
scary. This shows how far Milosevic is prepared to go. But I think
Milosevic is also scared, because this is a time when Milosevic is
worried that he is losing some of his support and his levers on power.
So he won't want to step aside. He won't voluntarily go to The Hague,
where he needs to go for a free trial for the war crimes on which he
has been indicted. But I think this is an opportunity for the people
of Serbia to demonstrate their desire for democratic change and their
desire to leave the isolation that Milosevic has imposed upon them and
enter Europe.
MR. BERTEL: This is an exciting time for the people of the former
Yugoslavia.
Well, we are pleased today to be joined by television broadcasters all
across Southeastern Europe. And today we also have journalists in
Belgrade watching us, and we would like to encourage those journalists
to call us during the program. The phone number you can reach us on is
202-205-9066. It's there on the screen. And those journalists watching
us in Belgrade and throughout Serbia -- we encourage you to call us
with your questions for Mr. Schulte. At this point we are going to
bring OBN Television in Sarajevo into the program, and Vedran Persic,
my colleague there, is standing by. Vedran, go ahead with your
questions for Mr. Schulte.
QUESTION: Thank you, Jim, and warm greetings from Sarajevo to you in
Washington. We all heard from various reports that Milosevic is going
to steal the elections in Serbia next week. Mr. Schulte, do you maybe
know how?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, I think Milosevic has some time-honored approaches
that he has used to steal elections in the past, and certainly he will
try to employ some of those. But he may even have to be more creative
than before, given the fact that the polls show that he is well, well,
well behind. I think to a certain extent he has already, you might
say, put his finger on the scales -- you might say put his foot on the
scales of democracy by the actions that he has already taken against
the media, against the opposition, tampering with the constitution.
But I think we can also expect to see a lot of other changes. For
example, the federal electoral commission, which he controls, recently
announced the number of people who are registered to vote within
Yugoslavia. And interestingly, this included a very large number of
people in districts that he has gerrymandered to extend into Kosovo.
And I suspect that the night after the elections, there will be a lot
of Kosovar Albanians who in fact didn't vote who will be surprised to
learn that they did vote and they voted for Milosevic. So I think we
will see things like this -- some will be blatant, some won't be. The
important thing is that the Contact Group, to include the Russians,
said just last week that the whole international community is going to
be watching these elections. We are going to be expecting them to be
free and fair. And only free and fair elections will open the doorway
for Yugoslavia to join Europe.
Q: The general secretary of NATO, Lord George Robertson, said at the
beginning of last week that if Milosevic wins the election he is
facing a destiny of former Romanian President Ceaucescu, that the
people of Serbia actually will rise and probably kill him. Do you
maybe have somewhere in your notes that kind of a scenario?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, I think the people of Serbia in the end are going
to have to decide what type of leadership they want for their country.
The leadership that they currently have has led them to one disaster
to another disaster. Milosevic claims that he is the protector of the
Serb people, that he is the protector of Yugoslavia. But look what
happened to Yugoslavia during the period of his rule. It shrunk, it
shrunk, there's been violence, there has been war. And now he is even
threatening the sister republic of Montenegro, which is occupied by
fellow Slavs and fellow Serbs. I think the people of Serbia and the
people of Yugoslavia don't have an interest in this.
Now, if Milosevic steals these elections, if he uses all these
maneuvers to take the vote out of the hands of the Serb people, the
Serb people will have to decide how to respond. Are they prepared to
accept another four years, another eight years of his increasingly
autocratic rule, his rule which has impoverished Yugoslavia, which has
left it isolated from the outside community? It's not a great honor in
the international community to have a state that is headed by an
indicted war criminal indicted by the United Nations. They will need
to decide what's in their interests.
MR. BERTEL: Vedran, thank you for those questions. At this point we
are going to move on to Pogorica. And we are very excited to have TV
Montenegro with us today. Joining me from there is Milena Djurgic
(ph). Milena, please go ahead with your questions for Mr. Schulte.
Q: Washington, official Belgrade warned several times that Serbia does
not have a future with Slobodan Milosevic, and the West continues to
analyze the situation. Can you predict the development of events after
September 24th?
MR. SCHULTE: I think prediction is always dangerous, particularly in a
situation like this. We are worried that Milosevic -- well, we know
that Milosevic at this point would lose a free and fair election. We
are worried that he will steal it. This is an opportunity I think for
the people of Serbia to demonstrate their expectations that things
will change. And I think the people of Serbia will need to decide are
they willing to live with this continued isolation. The heads of
industry, the cronies who are around Milosevic -- will he in fact keep
them at their current high levels of living? Is the military in fact
willing to abide the orders of someone who has clearly demonstrated
his illegitimacy if he steals the election? I think it's a question
for all the people of the country to ask themselves.
Q: The first man of the Yugoslav army, Nebojsa Pavkovic, sent a
message that September 24th is the D-Day in Serbia. He also stressed
that the military will be prepared on that day. How do you interpret
that statement?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, I expect to a certain extent that President
Milosevic has an interest in keeping the military on the bases, in
part so he can help make sure they vote the right way. I think he's
also worried about any challenges that could emerge to his control.
Milosevic is someone who is prepared to resort to any ends to keep his
hold on power, and I think he knows he is about to face one of the
most powerful challenges to his reign that he has ever had since he
came to power. And so Milosevic is clearly worried and clearly
posturing himself.
We are also worried, quite frankly, about the intentions of Mr.
Milosevic towards Montenegro. The West has shown its great support for
President Djukanovic. This is something that Milosevic doesn't like,
and we are worried about what his intentions might be.
MR. BERTEL: Milena, thank you for those questions. We're going to move
on now to Macedonia, where A-1 Television is, and my colleague Viljana
Sekolovic (ph). Viljana (ph), please go ahead with your questions.
Q: Thanks, Jim. My first question for your guest is about Macedonia
and Macedonian elections, local elections. We had first the first
round, and then this Sunday we will have the second round. So about
the first round there were a lot of reports -- what kind of elections
we had from OSCE and from the international community, and the
international monitoring. And they were very concerned because of
serious incidents, serious violations, gun shootings, et cetera, et
cetera. So what's your comment about that? Thank you.
MR. SCHULTE: Thank you. We have been watching those elections very
carefully, because we see them as an important step for Macedonia in
bringing democracy to that country and in preparing it for its entry
into Europe. And I think we too were concerned about some of the
reports of violence and so forth that emerged from the international
community, and we will be watching the second round very carefully
too.
I think what's important here is that the OSCE is there monitoring
those elections. There is an effort to make sure that those elections
are free and fair. Bringing democracy can be difficult, but bringing
democracy in fact is what we need throughout the region. And I
encourage the people of Macedonia to move forward on this democratic
route to make sure that the next rounds are free and fair and safe
from any violence.
MR. BERTEL: Viljana, go ahead with your next question.
Q: So the next question is connected with this previous one. I didn't
hear whether the State Department, whether official Washington is
concerned about this violence which happened in Macedonia?
MR. SCHULTE: I think we are concerned about any violence associated
with elections. And, as I said, it's something that we are watching
very carefully. We hope that the next round will go without any
violence, and in fact it's an opportunity for a democracy to become
more firmly entrenched in Macedonia, not an opportunity for additional
violence.
MR. BERTEL: All right, Viljana, thank you.
At this point I would like to remind those journalists watching us in
Belgrade that they can call in with questions for Mr. Schulte if they
would like. In fact, anywhere in Serbia you can call in with your
questions. The number to call is 202-205-9066. The number is there on
the screen: 202-205-9066.
Let's return now to OBN Television in Sarajevo where Vedran Persic is.
Q: Thank you, Jim. Mr. Schulte, we are always speaking about Milosevic
as the one is leading Serbia towards, let's say, hell. But is Vojislav
Kostunica the man who could lead Serbia towards democratization, or
shall we see Milosevic after Milosevic?
MR. SCHULTE: We don't have a candidate in this race, the international
community. We are supporting the democratic forces. We are supporting
their efforts to achieve unity. We are supporting their efforts to
defeat Slobodan Milosevic, who clearly is a man who cannot lead Serbia
into the future. I think any democratic transition in any country can
be difficult. And I think what's important is the democratic
opposition recognizes that cooperation with the international
community is the route for Serbia's future, not the opposite. In fact,
if you look at the platform that has been endorsed by the democratic
opposition -- it was developed by the G-17-plus group of economists
within Serbia -- it's a very progressive platform. They want to join
the Stability Pact, they want economic reform, they want to reform the
security forces. They want democratic reform. I think all these are
the right type of steps that would be necessary to bring Serbia back
into Europe and to give it its rightful place.
Q: Yes, can you tell us what the U.S. Navy is doing in the Adriatic
Sea together with the Croats in some sort of military exercise?
MR. SCHULTE: The United States and its allies constantly have military
presence and activities throughout the region, and this is one example
of an exercise that was scheduled some time ago -- it was actually
scheduled before Milosevic called these elections -- to cooperate with
our Croatian partners in developing peacekeeping capabilities. And in
fact the exercise is explicitly oriented towards helping Croatia as it
enters NATO's Partnership for Peace program, so it's more capable of
cooperating with NATO and NATO allies in conducting peacekeeping-type
activities.
I might just note that the fact that Croatia has been able to join
Partnership for Peace and work more closely with the West is an
indication of what can happen through democratic reform, the reform
that followed the elections that took place in Croatia.
MR. BERTEL: Vedran, thank you. Let's return now to TV Montenegro and
Milena Djurgic (ph). Go ahead please.
Q: If Milosevic declares a victory and such a result is accepted,
something that Milosevic would turn to extend his revenge towards
Montenegro -- what is your opinion of such a scenario?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, as I said before, we are worried about Milosevic's
intentions towards Montenegro. And he has taken steps to give himself
increased capability within Montenegro. We are worried about this. We
have very clearly stated our support for President Djukanovic and the
democratic-minded government that he has been able to put into place
-- and this is support not just from the United States, but it's also
from the European Union, and it's also from Russia -- something that
was made very clear at the Contact Group ministerial meeting last
week. We strongly support the Montenegrin government, and I think
we've also made it very clear to Milosevic and to his military leaders
that they would have to be worried about what type of response they
would face were they to move on Montenegro.
Q: What if Milosevic still moves against the legitimate Montenegrin
government?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, I think Milosevic would have to realize that there
would be a strong Western response to that. He would not only be
isolated, he would be increasingly isolated. He would not only be
sanctioned, he would be increasingly sanctioned. And this is something
that in the end would hurt him and hurt his regime.
I think Milosevic has miscalculated many times before. Were he to
miscalculate here, he would have to worry about suffering similar
consequences. And the results for him would be an even weakening grip
on power than his current faltering grip on power.
MR. BERTEL: There's a report this morning, talking about possible
threat to Montenegro -- there is a report this morning that Serb
forces have begun growing in the Albanian-majority region in southern
Serbia. There is fear that Mr. Milosevic might stir things up there in
the days leading up to the election next Sunday. Is there anything
that the West and KFOR [security force in Kosovo] can do if he does
take action there?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, I think what we have seen is that President
Milosevic will use the way he postures his military forces to try to
intimidate domestic opponents and try to influence those outside of
his country. And I think what's important is, KFOR is a strong
military force. It's able to defend itself, it's able to defend
Kosovo. And as long as KFOR is in place I think people in Kosovo don't
need to worry about Serb military forces. Clearly Milosevic is
posturing. We have a lot of military capability in the region, whether
it's KFOR, whether it's SFOR [stabilization force in Bosnia], or
whether it's other military activities in and around the region
whereby we could respond to any action that he would take.
MR. BERTEL: All right, let's return now to Sarajevo and Vedran Persic.
Q: Mr. Schulte, there were some reports that major persons indicted
for war crimes, especially living in the area of Bosnia-Herzegovina,
are not arrested because of the U.S. elections. The reports are saying
that people who wait to see who will win elections and then the United
States will give some kind of a green light for those arrests to take
place. What is your comment?
MR. SCHULTE: Those reports, which actually I have not heard, but those
reports are just wrong. The United States and its allies place a very
high priority on the apprehension of indicted war criminals and their
delivery to The Hague, full stop. It's important, it's a matter of
judgment, it's also a matter of implementing the Dayton peace accords.
And anyone who thinks they can sort of wait to a future U.S.
administration should probably think again. Both of the major parties
that are running for the election have made very clear their intention
for indicted war criminals to go to The Hague, including Slobodan
Milosevic.
Q: Have you heard that Carla del Ponte, chief prosecutor, stated that
she is really concerned and enraged because NATO is not doing new
action and operations in Bosnia-Herzegovina regarding the arrest of
those persons indicted for war crimes?
MR. SCHULTE: We work very closely with Carla del Ponte of the ICTY
[International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia], and we
understand her concerns. And in fact our objective is to help her
prosecute all the indicted war criminals who she has identified. And
in fact, over the last year and a half, SFOR for example has been able
to deliver a relatively large number of indicted war criminals to The
Hague for trial. In fact, I think since the beginning of Dayton
something like 22 indicted war criminals have been delivered by NATO
forces in Bosnia to The Hague for trial. We would like to get them all
there so they can all face trial.
MR. BERTEL: I'd like to for just a moment switch back to the elections
coming up on Sunday. As you know, the Serbian minority in Kosovo will
be taking part in the elections. Do you see this as possibly causing
further ethnic divisions within Kosovo and perhaps an increase in
violence?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, Bernard Kouchner, who is the head of the U.N.
administration, has basically characterized the extension of the
elections from Yugoslavia into Kosovo as a farce. And he does it
because he, like us, sees the conditions for these elections aren't
free and fair. And whereas he and the U.N. have been preparing for
months now for free and fair elections to take place at the end of
October, there will be no preparations for these elections to take
place within Kosovo. I mean, clearly the Belgrade regime is trying to
have a bit of a propaganda coup here by demonstrating that it can
conduct elections here, and I am sure they see this as an easy target
for stealing elections. Remember, those Kosovar Albanians who I
mentioned before who will suddenly discover that they voted in the
elections, much to their surprise.
But I think something interesting has happened, and perhaps this
hasn't been such a coup for Milosevic after all, because in fact
Kostunica seems to be the candidate who is generating the most
interest and the most support, even if he was stoned -- had tomatoes
thrown at him by Milosevic thugs. And I think what this shows is that
even the Serb minority within Kosovo feels that Milosevic hasn't
served their interests, and in fact change would be beneficial for
them.
MR. BERTEL: Do you think by including the Serb minority in the
elections on Sunday could disrupt the elections, the local elections
coming up at the end of October in Kosovo?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, I think to the extent that these elections on
Sunday cause additional tension within Kosovo this is bound to be an
additional problem for the elections at the end of October.
I think what's important for everyone in Kosovo and outside Kosovo to
focus on, however, are the elections in October. These are the
elections that will start setting in place the municipal structures
under which Kosovo will be able to govern itself, to give it the
autonomy that has been promised by the international community. And I
think it's important that the people in Kosovo focus on those
elections -- ignore these farcical elections and focus on those
elections, which is their opportunity to start building democratic
municipal structures that reach across ethnic lines.
MR. BERTEL: All right. Let's return now to Sarajevo and Vedran Persic.
Q: Mr. Schulte, do you think that the decision made by the Milo
Djukanovic followers not to vote in upcoming FRY [Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia] elections is wrong?
MR. SCHULTE: I think it's a decision that we respect. It was a very
difficult decision for President Djukanovic, because we assessed the
elections in a similar way. As I said at the beginning, you know,
these are not going to be fair and free elections. The only question
might be how much Milosevic tries to cheat. And I think for President
Djukanovic, the dilemma that he faced -- although he would like to
support, and has been a major supporter of the democratic opposition
within Serbia, his concern was that participating in these elections
would somehow sanction the constitutional changes that had been
engineered, and as a result would weaken the role of Montenegro. So we
respect his decision not to participate. We hope he will still be an
important voice in these elections, particularly if there is a second
round, in supporting the democratic opposition.
MR. BERTEL: You're watching "Washington Window," and we'll have more
right after this.
(Announcements.)
MR. BERTEL: This is "Washington Window," where we are discussing the
upcoming Yugoslav elections with Greg Schulte, special assistant to
the president and director for Southeast European affairs at the
National Security Council.
Yesterday the Yugoslav army commander came out in open support of
Milosevic, describing Kostunica as "NATO's candidate," and saying
there's a very clear choice in candidates, a choice between patriotism
and treachery. Do you see the fact that the leader of the army has
come out this way an ominous sign of things to come?
MR. SCHULTE: First, I think that the fact that he has done this shows
what type of a regime we are facing. I mean, could you imagine in any
Western country, or for that matter in any other country in Southeast
Europe, where the head of the military would come out and say, Vote
for this individual? I mean, this is clearly not democracy. This is
more an attempt at intimidation.
But I think it also shows that Milosevic is worried. He is worried
about his military, he is worried about how the vote will go. To need
to have your head of the military tell everyone how to vote suggests
that he is worried about how those officers in the military are going
to vote at the mid levels, how the conscripts are going to vote, how
others are going to vote. In fact, whereas Milosevic and his wife
Mirjana have been able to install loyal yes-men at the head of the
military, in the officer corps there are questions about the future
that they face and concerns that Milosevic is going to be taking them
towards yet another political war. And I think within the military,
within the conscripts, there is also a desire for change, which
Milosevic clearly feels he needs to suppress.
MR. BERTEL: Now, the missing man in the campaign has been President
Milosevic. He has made all of one campaign appearance so far. If he is
so worried about this, why have we not seen more of him?
MR. SCHULTE: Milosevic has never been a good one at working the
crowds. He tends to be one who likes to be seen sort of talking from
his palace. And I think we are seeing a reflection of that; whereas
Kostunica seems to be one who is willing to go and shake hands and
talk to the people of Serbia and so forth. And I think the people of
Serbia are looking for somebody at this point who can work with them,
who doesn't sit above them in a palace and tell them what to do and to
have this military commander tell them what to do.
This may also be a reflection that Milosevic is worried. You know, he
is worried to go out there. He is worried about what the reactions
will be. When Kostunica has gone to Milosevic's home town, to places
that Milosevic used to control, he's been attracting large crowds. It
would be a major embarrassment for Milosevic if he wasn't able to bus
in crowds and get enough people to mobilize to show that he can also
attract similar support.
MR. BERTEL: At this point let's return to Vedran Persic at OBN
Television.
Q: Thank you, Jim. Mr. Schulte, I just wondered, if Slobodan Milosevic
wins this election and he stays in power, what will happen with the
region? I mean, we already lost one year of the Stability Pact, and
what will be the next?
MR. SCHULTE: I think if Milosevic stays in power it will be a tragedy
for Serbia, and it will also unfortunately be a problem for the
region. We are working around Serbia at this point to bring stability,
to bring economic prosperity. But it would be a lot easier to do that
if we had Serbia as part of the solution instead of as the major
problem. If he is there in power, we will need to continue our current
course. That means to isolate him, to reduce his mechanisms to create
problems for his neighbors, and also to continue the work of the
Stability Pact, which is basically a compact between the other
countries other than Serbia in the region and the international
community whereby if the countries of the region work to reform
themselves economically or to reform themselves democratically, work
to make the necessary conditions for the investment, the other
countries of the international community will continue to work with
them to build opportunities to invest, to bring them into Europe. So
we will have two options. Either we'll have a Serbia without
Milosevic, in which case we will have the happy task of integrating
Serbia into Southeast Europe, into Europe. On the other hand, if
Milosevic is still there, we will need to continue to work and build
stability and prosperity around him.
Q: Maybe it would be really nice just to once again say once on the
record what is the position of your office regarding the independence
of Kosovo and independence of Montenegro. While I was in Brussels last
week, I heard that Montenegro should be really patient and really
careful when they are calling for referendum in Montenegro.
MR. SCHULTE: I think our position on independence of Montenegro is
clear and unchanging, and that is we do not support an independent
Montenegro. What we support is, we support a Montenegro that is
prosperous, that is autonomous, that can have its relations with the
international community as part of a democratic Federal Republic of
Yugoslavia.
As far as Kosovo is concerned, the final status of Kosovo has not been
resolved. It will depend very much on what happens within Yugoslavia
-- that's very clear. What we are working on right now, with Dr.
Kouchner and all of the others -- the Europeans and others who are
investing their time and resources in Kosovo, is to create the
mechanisms and capacity for self-government, and that's why these
elections that are coming up are very important. But this is
self-government in which Belgrade has no say over the dealings with
Kosovo. This is self-government where the Kosovars of all ethnic
backgrounds can govern themselves and work towards their own
prosperity.
MR. BERTEL: Last winter the international community provided energy
aid for opposition cities, cities that were controlled by opposition
candidates, called the Energy for Democracy Project. On Friday, the EU
unveiled a new aid project for Serbian opposition towns for
educational aid. Can we expect this to continue, regardless of the
results of Sunday's election?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, I think if Milosevic wins the elections, if he
steals them and he stays in place, we and our European colleagues will
continue to try to work with opposition towns, with members of the
opposition. We don't want the people of Serbia to suffer from the fact
that they have Milosevic as their president. Our problem is not with
the people of Serbia. In fact, the United States has a long tradition
of good relations and of significant relations with Yugoslavia. Our
problem is with Milosevic. And to the extent that we and our European
colleagues can work with members of the opposition, can work with
opposition municipalities, we will seek ways to do that.
MR. BERTEL: We keep hearing Western officials talk about the fear of
the elections being stolen next Sunday. Much of the evidence we are
using at this point are the polls that have been taken showing
Milosevic far behind. How reliable are these polls? Are they as
reliable as Western polls?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, I am reluctant to comment about any polling. I
think polling has a dynamic, whether it's in the West or whether it's
in Serbia. And clearly given the type of repression that Milosevic has
put in place against non-governmental organizations, against the media
and so forth, you do have to worry about what would be the impact upon
polling there.
But what's interesting though is all the various polls taken by
different polling firms all show that Kostunica is clearly in the
lead. And the fact that they all show that I think is something that
you need to pay attention to. And also that there seems to be a bit of
a trend here. Support seems to be building. Milosevic has a hard core
of supporters. But what we are seeing is we are seeing in these polls
the undecided who are increasingly shifting over to Kostunica, which
is something that builds the support for the democratic opposition,
but also worries the Belgrade regime.
MR. BERTEL: And as we have seen in Western elections, it's always
those last-minute undecided which decide which way the vote is going
to go.
Let's head back to OBN Television now and Vedran Persic.
Q: You just said that the final phase of Kosovo is still not resolved.
I just wondered if Kosovo is independent, will it lead for the Bosnian
entity with the Serbs a majority to living in to also maybe vote or
look for independence, of course if they have a back-up system from
Belgrade where Milosevic is standing?
MR. SCHULTE: I think the future for Bosnia does not lie in new
structures, does not lie in new constitutional arrangements, does not
lie in independence for entities. The future lies in implementing the
Dayton peace accords. Maybe there need to be some changes at the
margins as we go ahead and implement this, but the Dayton peace
accords provide the framework for Bosnia's future. The Republika
Srpska is one of the entities clearly. It has functions that it needs
to play. But what's key to Bosnia are its central institutions as a
functioning state, as a state that can ultimately join Europe.
To a certain extent Bosnia still faces the choices that are open to
other countries in the region. And the choice is: Do you want to fully
integrate yourself in the West or not? And I think that for the people
of Bosnia -- and they need to think about this in the elections that
they have coming up in two months as well -- they need to be thinking
about what are the steps, who are the politicians, what are the
institutions that best position their country to be a normal country,
and to join other countries of Europe in tearing down walls and
building prosperity. Declaring entities independent is not that
course.
Q: Mr. Schulte, President Clinton last month highlighted two persons
from Bosnia-Herzegovina as the best leaders of the better future for
Bosnia-Herzegovina. It's Radko Lagumja (ph), Social Democrat, and
present prime minister of Republika Srpska, Milan Dodik. Why -- from
your perspective, why does President Clinton highlight those two guys,
when we know for example that Dodik is leading the government, which
is producing a deficit which is about $100 million U.S. dollars?
MR. SCHULTE: I think -- I mean, both of these individuals have shown
that a vision that involves cooperation with the West and
implementation of Dayton is a vision that is bound to bring prosperity
to Bosnia and integration into the West. I mean, we are not endorsing
particular candidates. But, on the other hand, we do hope that when
these elections come in November that the people of Bosnia will look
for those who can lead their country forward. We need people who look
to the future, not people who are mired in the past. We need people
who can work across ethnic boundaries, across entity boundaries, who
can make Bosnia into a fully functioning state that can take its place
in Bosnia.
MR. BERTEL: For just a moment let's step away from the politics of the
region and look at the rebuilding of the region. The Balkan Stability
Pact -- back in the spring a lot of money was promised at a meeting in
Europe, a lot of immediate start projects were proposed. As we sit
here today here in the fall of the year, how is it going?
MR. SCHULTE: I think one of the things that we found is that when we
identified these quick-start projects, it took a certain period of
time, particularly for the European Union, to begin generating the
funding necessary to make those happen. They are now committing that
money. That is now happening. And in fact we are starting to see some
of these quick-start projects come to fruition. Road, for example --
this new road in Albania that recently has been opened -- which is an
indication that there is movement.
And the Stability Pact includes a lot more than these quick-start
projects too. It's an opportunity for the countries in the region to
begin talking to each other. And I think there are various elements
that have taken place under the umbrella of the Stability Pact that
are important. For example, there is the Southeast European meeting of
defense ministers, where defense ministers of the region are coming
together -- not talking about how they should war with each other, but
talking about how they should cooperate with each other. And I think
what the Stability Pact has helped to do -- it has helped to break
down the walls between countries so that they can start talking to
each other, so they can have the normal discourse that one would
expect among countries who are at peace and who are looking for
prosperity.
MR. BERTEL: Now, there was a fear that once Kosovo got out of the
headlines that there would be a loss of interest by the Europeans in
investing. Is the U.S. satisfied with the amount of support that the
Europeans are giving to Southeastern Europe?
MR. SCHULTE: I think initially we were a little bit concerned about
how quickly the European Union was able to commit money. As I said
now, they are fully committing the money that they've pledged. And in
fact, if you look at the amount of burden-sharing, it's really quite
phenomenal. I mean, the Europeans and others -- the international
institutions -- are providing something like 85 percent of the
investment that is going into Kosovo at this point. And even if you
look at the U.S. contribution in terms of military forces into KFOR,
we are providing only 15 percent of the force. And I think this is
important because it does show that Europe can carry its fair share
and that European burden-sharing can work.
MR. BERTEL: Very good. Let's return to Vedran Persic at OBN
Television.
Q: Thank you, Jim. Mr. Schulte, how do you comment on certain behavior
towards civilians by American troops in Kosovo?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, as you know, there was a tragic incident where
there were a couple of American soldiers who were involved in an
incident in Kosovo where their behavior was inappropriate. There has
been a trial on this; the results of that are being released. I think
what's important here is that the U.S. Army, U.S. Department of
Defense, has moved very quickly in response to this to make sure that
activities like this don't happen again.
We have -- the United States has over 10,000 forces in Kosovo and in
Bosnia, and the fact that a couple of soldiers were involved in these
activities -- one is now serving a life prison sentence for it -- is
an indication that this is just a little problem. But it is a little
problem that we need to fix, that we need to deal with, and we are.
Q: Is this hurting the trust between the Kosovar Albanians and KFOR?
MR. SCHULTE: I don't think it is, because when this incident first
took place the United States military commander, the United States
ambassador, immediately went to the family that was involved,
apologized. The family accepted the apology. I think for the most part
the people of Kosovo still trust and respect and appreciate the fact
that there are U.S. soldiers who are there who not only helped to
reverse the ethnic cleansing that was going on, but who are also
helping to create the conditions necessary for peace and democracy.
MR. BERTEL: In addition to keeping track of things in Southeastern
Europe, you also have to fight a fight here in the United States with
Congress to keep Congress behind the U.S. efforts in Southeastern
Europe. There is a presidential election coming up here in the United
States. Democratic Vice President Al Gore is going up against
Republican Governor George W. Bush. And Governor Bush has indicated
that if he is elected, certainly he will reevaluate the troops that
are in the Balkans, if not remove them completely. Is there support in
the United States for the U.S.'s efforts in Southeastern Europe now
and do you think in the future?
MR. SCHULTE: I think that this administration has already said that on
a periodic basis we need to review force levels in Bosnia and Kosovo,
and make decisions based upon some very concrete benchmarks that we
have established and shared with Congress about when reductions could
be taken. And in fact there have been substantial reductions over
time. The current size of SFOR, the U.S. component of SFOR, compared
to our initial deployment, has been cut by two-thirds. So we will look
for opportunities for prudent reductions where they can be made, and I
am confident the following administrations will do the same thing.
I think one of our jobs is to articulate to the American Congress and
to articulate to the American people why we have an interest in being
engaged in Southeast Europe. And I think the reason the U.S. has an
interest in Southeast Europe is because Southeastern Europe offers us
an opportunity -- it offers us an opportunity to create a Europe that
is free and whole, a Europe that is stable, a Europe that can be a
strong partner with us. On the other hand, if we don't pay enough
attention, if we don't invest what we need to invest along with our
European partners in the region, Southeast Europe has a potential to
be a source of crises for us in the future. And I think we and the
American people have an interest to continue that investment.
MR. BERTEL: Certainly in partisan politics the two parties always see
things differently. A number of Republicans have come out and said
that the U.S. mission in the Balkans has been less than successful.
Yet if you were to talk to people in Bosnia-Herzegovina, certainly in
Kosovo, I think they would beg to differ. How do you evaluate the U.S.
effort in the Balkans during the Clinton administration?
MR. SCHULTE: I think what we have done in the Balkans has been rather
remarkable. If you go back to the beginning of this situation, where
we had a war taking place in Bosnia, where we had people being killed,
where we had ethnic cleansing taking place, and it was really NATO
engagement -- NATO engagement led by the United States -- that helped
bring an end to this killing and that helped to create the conditions
where people in Bosnia today, in thinking about the election in
November, can think more about who can best bring them economic
prosperity as opposed to who can best protect their ethnic group
against violence. And I think that's a tremendous change. It has taken
a lot of work. It has taken investment. It has taken us working very
hard with the people and institutions of Bosnia to make it succeed.
But with persistence and with patience, I think we are seeing results.
If you also look back where we were even a shorter period ago, where
we had a tremendous ethnic cleansing campaign going on -- something
really unprecedented since World War II, and NATO, once again led by
the United States, was able to stop and reverse that ethnic cleansing
and create conditions in Kosovo where for the very first time in their
history the people of Kosovo are going to be able to vote in a
democratic election and put in place institutions that provide for
self-government.
If you look throughout the region, I think the fact that we have been
engaged, the fact that the president has given us a vision that's
inherent in the Stability Pact, I think that has affected politics. I
mean, look at -- we have elections going on in the various countries
around the region, democracy is taking root. Look what happened in
Croatia -- this is phenomenal. When I worked at the White House two
years ago, the ambassador from Croatia would periodically come to my
door and ask if President Tudjman could have a meeting with our
president. I would say, Sorry, no -- we don't have interests in
meeting with somebody who is suppressing democracy, who is suppressing
independence, who is suppressing the media. I was very pleased when
after the elections I could help host the new president of Croatia
when he came here. And I think what's happened in Croatia in a very
short period of time is a key indicator of our success and the success
of the international community, where you suddenly are moving from an
autocratic regime to a government that is committed to democracy,
committed to working with the West, committed to cooperating with The
Hague, committed to economic reform and so forth that would allow that
country, like other countries in the region, to move into Europe.
MR. BERTEL: It's been very encouraging watching what's happened in
Croatia in just the last few months. But there has been growing unrest
in Croatia in recent weeks about the cooperation with the ICTY. Do you
see this as a threat to the new government?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, I think one of the things the new government has
done is that it has committed itself to cooperation with the ICTY, and
this, like many of the other issues it has to face, whether it's
economic reform or changing institutions, is difficult. There is
resistance, there are people who don't have an interest doing this --
people from the old regime. And I think we strongly support the
government in working with the ICTY, where we admire the steps they
are taking to ensure that justice is brought. And I think in the end,
as difficult as it is, to the extent that the international community
and governments can identify the individuals who are responsible for
crimes against humanity, to the extent the individuals receive that
responsibility and justice is served, the extent I think the rest of
the society is relieved from that same burden, and the rest of the
society can become normal and can join the West.
MR. BERTEL: And change does take time.
Moving back to Kosovo for just a moment, there are reports -- in fact,
there is concern that organized crime is moving into Kosovo in a large
way -- trafficking in drugs, weapons, people. There are reports that
it's going on constantly. How great a problem do you see it as being
right now, and is there anything that the West can do to step in and
perhaps stem this?
MR. SCHULTE: Frankly we are not just concerned about organized crime
in Kosovo; we are concerned about organized crime throughout the
region. I think this is one of the difficulties when you have
societies that are going through fundamental change, where security
services are being restructured, where institutions are being changed,
or maybe society is even broken down for a period of time, that too
often it's the people with the guns, it's the people with the money
who try to install themselves as the one who can influence society.
But nobody wants to grow up in a mobster state. And I think what's
important for the U.S., for its allies, to work with the individual
governments, to strengthen their own capabilities to deal with
organized crime, to make sure there is a sound legal basis in place to
deal with organized crime. This applies to Bosnia as well.
Kosovo is a bit of a special case -- we are still building
institutions there. You have U.N. administration there. The U.N.
administration, with its civil police, is working to increase their
capabilities to deal with organized crime, and we strongly support
these efforts.
MR. BERTEL: We have just a couple of minutes left. Here we are a year
and three or four months since the end of the war in Kosovo. How would
you assess the changes going on there? How would you assess the
situation at this point?
MR. SCHULTE: I think when you sort of look back where we were before
the whole conflict began and where we are today, it's really quite
phenomenal. The fact that all of these people who were thrown out of
their country were able to return, the fact that they are
concentrating now on rebuilding their lives, the fact that some of the
economic infrastructure is being put in place for growth, the fact
that new laws, new forms of justice are being put in place -- I think
all this is quite phenomenal. I think this is a major success for the
international community, where it showed that by intervening early it
could in fact bring important change and prevent a conflict that not
only would have had severe -- that not only did have severe
humanitarian consequences, but also could have had severe consequences
for the whole region.
MR. BERTEL: And in the minute we have left, let's look at the Balkans
as a whole. In less than a decade since the end of the war in
Bosnia-Herzegovina, how are the Balkans doing?
MR. SCHULTE: Well, you notice I use the term "Southeast Europe." To a
certain extent, as the president has said, we are trying to take the
Balkans out of the Balkans. I think when people talk about the Balkans
they tend to think of a region that is too mired in history. And one
of our objectives, as difficult as it is, is to make sure that while
people in Southeast Europe, while they recognize the importance of
history, build on it, break away from it if necessary and think about
the future society, the future world they want to live in.
MR. BERTEL: And that's a nice way to wrap things up. Greg Schulte,
special advisor to the president for Southeastern Europe, thank you so
much for being here today.
MR. SCHULTE: Thank you, Jim.
MR. BERTEL: Good having you here. I also want to thank all of the
journalists who joined us from Southeastern Europe today. I want to
remind you that you can now watch "Washington Window" whenever you
want, just by visiting our Web page on the Internet. The address is
www.ibb.gov/worldnet/washwind.html. In Washington, I'm Jim Bertel for
"Washington Window."
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