Yugoslav Voters Have the Right to Democracy
By Louise Fenner
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington -- Voters in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia "have the
right to democracy. Yugoslavia ought to be an important part of the
international community, and this is their opportunity to choose
that," said James O'Brien, the U.S. State Department's special advisor
on democracy in the Balkans.
However, the September 24 Yugoslav elections "will not be free and
fair," O'Brien said, citing steps the Milosevic regime has already
taken to weigh the odds in its favor, such as an "unrelenting campaign
of intimidation" against the democratic opposition, and suppression of
independent media.
"We know Milosevic will cheat."
O'Brien spoke September 20 at a forum sponsored by the United States
Institute of Peace (USIP). He was joined by Stojan Cerovic, a USIP
senior fellow and columnist for the Belgrade weekly "Vreme," and Jim
Hooper, director of the International Crisis Group.
One important difference from previous Yugoslav elections is that now
there is "a group of opposition parties that have become a real set of
democratic forces," O'Brien said. "There is now a democratic movement
in Yugoslavia."
"The opposition is poised to do well," he said, citing numerous
opinion polls that consistently show Vojislav Kostunica of the
Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) leading by a "fairly substantial
margin."
About 15 parties have united behind a single presidential candidate --
Kostunica -- and the other candidates opposing Milosevic have promised
to back the opposition candidate in the case of a runoff election,
O'Brien noted.
Although Milosevic is not allowing the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to monitor the elections, Yugoslav law
allows the opposition to do so, and the international community is
watching carefully. Thus it will be difficult for Milosevic "to steal
[the election], especially on a large scale, and make a credible claim
that he won."
O'Brien pointed out that in the Serbian province of Kosovo, the
Milosevic regime is setting up some polling places even though the
United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo [UNMIK] is the
only entity responsible for organizing elections there.
Milosevic may attempt ballot rigging in Kosovo or may exploit the
tense security situation there, O'Brien said, but "close monitoring in
Kosovo will debunk any claim" Milosevic might make about the number of
votes he collects. "If he relies on these techniques for cheating to
try to perpetuate himself in power, he will have less legitimacy, less
standing in the international community, and less ability to withstand
calls for reform from within Yugoslavia."
People in Serbia "know that there is a stark choice for them between
continued isolation, and the progress and European involvement that
they see everywhere" in the rest of Southeast Europe, O'Brien said. He
noted that the European Union promised to end sanctions if there is a
democratic transition in Serbia.
While the choice is up to the voters, O'Brien said the international
community can "bear witness" and get out the word about any attempts
to steal the election; can clarify the choice Serbia faces --
isolation versus democracy; and can warn Milosevic that he "does not
have a free hand to generate a crisis" aimed at keeping him in power
indefinitely, such as acting against Montenegro.
He said that during the United Nations Millennium Summit earlier this
month, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright was told by the
foreign ministers of Southeast Europe: "We have chosen democracy, we
have chosen Europe.... We want to see [Yugoslavians] choose democracy
for themselves so our whole region can complete this historic
transformation."
(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site:
http://usinfo.state.gov)
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