Military

FRY Elections: 'A Dangerous Situation With Unpredictable Consequences'

The upcoming September 24 presidential and parliamentary elections in Yugoslavia prompted a flurry of overseas comments, mostly from Europe, but also a handful from Asia and Canada. Most observers expressed concern that, once again, Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic would emerge triumphant. The weakness of the Serbian opposition, indecisiveness of the Western powers, and the political apathy--some said fear--on the part of the Serbian electorate were seen as possible explanations. Several dailies deemed the recent beatings of opposition leaders in Serbia, the disappearance of Milosevic critics and the regime-run media's pro-Milosevic propaganda as classic Slobodan Milosevic campaign tactics. Some stressed that if all else fails, the Serbian strongman would just "steal" the election through blatant cheating. Dailies in the region from Zagreb and Skopje and some Western European editorials were notably critical opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica--widely seen as Mr. Milosevic's leading opponent. The common view was that he is an extreme Serb nationalist, with anti-Western proclivities and hardline views on Kosovo; his only seeming virtue being that he is anti-Milosevic. Some pundits looked at the possible implications of the electoral contest in Yugoslavia. For example, they were apprehensive that a Kostunica win would fuel transitional instabilities in Belgrade. Others were concerned that Mr. Milosevic's efforts to hold on to power in the aftermath of an electoral defeat--most suggested a scenario that had him moving aggressively against Montenegro--may bring about Western military intervention. Still others focused on even more fundamental problems, dwelling on the continuing disarray in Kosovo and the possibility that an additional fragmentation of Yugoslavia may occur, triggering, among other consequences, an Islamization of the Balkans. In general, there was a sense of pessimsim that the region, rather than beginning to move toward democracy, is headed for more chaos. Selected quotes follow:

CROATIA: Zagreb-based Vjesnik: "The most credible interpretation appears to be that [former Serbian president and Milosevic opponent] Stambolic's (temporary) disappearance is just a pre-election warning to opposition rivals not to attack Milosevic's throne."

FYROM: Independent, left-of-center Utrinski Vesnik: "What everybody expects is post-electoral turmoil in Serbia."

BRITAIN: The conservative Times: "Mr. Milosevic could create some 'national emergency' and go from ballot box to gun. His most likely target would be Montenegro."

ITALY: Conservative Il Tempo: "The last thing we should hope for is a disruption in Belgrade and the loss of leadership.... Every further trauma risks breaking apart an already unconnected mosaic.... Then, there is the prevailing problem of the increased Islamization of the region."

BELGIUM: Independent Catholic De Standaard: "No matter what, Yugoslavia is heading for an extremely dangerous situation with unpredictable consequences."

SWEDEN: Conservative Svenska Dagbladet: "Although Kostunica is no dream of a mother-in-law, the future for the country can be spelled: Post-Milosevic."

EDITOR: Diana McCaffrey

EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 32 reports from 14 countries August 28-September 15. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.

EUROPE

CROATIA: "A 'Democrat, Greater-Serbia Style'?"

Vesna Fabris Perunicic held in Zagreb-based Vjesnik (9/7): "On the one hand, [opposition candidate Vojislav] Kostunica accuses Milosevic of treason and destruction of the country by capitulation, and on the other, he wouldn't allow foreigners to try Milosevic for those deeds. According to Serbian analysts, when it comes to nationalism he could 'easily take over Milosevic's role, the only difference being that he's more democratic.' How will the West--and the electorate--interpret the pre-election rhetoric of that 'democrat, Greater-Serbia style?' Who will adore him and who will condemn him for showing off with an automatic rifle in Kosovo? To whom will it be most important that he's never even had a cup of tea with Milosevic, that he's never been entangled in any political or economic affair? Who will be impressed by his pledge to defend Yugoslavia and bring it back to Europe, to be merciful and to not take revenge on the servants of the current regime? The solution to that riddle is not yet on the horizon."

"Military Exercises And Elections"

Fran Visnar commented in Zagreb-based Vjesnik (9/3) on the coming NATO military exercises in Romania and maneuvers in the Adriatic and their implications for Croatia, in light of the September 24 elections in Yugoslavia, writing: "A dangerous fall is becoming very obvious in the Balkans. Election fever is overtaking Serbia, while Montenegro and President Djukanovic's government are coming under intense pressure from Belgrade.... The West and the United States are carefully observing the situation. They have most likely reached the conclusion that even if Vojislav Kostunica wins, Milosevic will cause problems during the transition of power. During the predicted period of anarchy and chaos, he could even strike Montenegro with loyal troops, special police units and pro-Serbian (or pro-Yugoslav)-oriented Montenegrins, who would rather cooperate with liberal Kostunica than with Milo Djukanovic and 'his clan.'... At the same time, NATO has announced that on the eve of Serbian elections, it will launch comprehensive military exercises in Romania. This form of pressure should warn the Serbian electorate not to make any 'mistakes' with their votes, i.e., to cast their ballots for the pro-Western opposition. Should any form of military intervention occur, Croatia will, yet again, find itself in a very delicate position.... Croatian leadership must take into account that Serbia--whoever its leader will be--will always be Croatia's neighbor. If Milosevic prevails, Zagreb will no longer be in a position to ignore him, whatever the Americans' opinion. In case it wins, the Serbian opposition might be even tougher on Croatia than Milosevic. That's why one shouldn't be surprised by the notion--in Croatia--that Croatia 'immediately went to bed with the Americans,' forgetting that the shortest and the least risky way to Brussels is through Europe."

"Serbia's 'Brutus' Finishing Up The Job?"

Vesna Fabris Perunicic commented in Zagreb-based Vjesnik (8/29) on the disappearance of Milosevic's former political mentor and former president of Serbia, Ivan Stambolic, writing: "In the aftermath of the event, which so far has been described by Serbian and Western media as a kidnapping, Stambolic's wife rejects a political motive; however, his lawyer claims the opposite. The fact is he criticized the regime in an increasingly blunt manner, and he was even in a position to reject opposition offers to run for the Yugoslav presidency.... One cannot rule out the option that Milosevic's wife Mira Markovic decided Stambolic's fate, but the most credible interpretation appears to be that his (temporary) disappearance is just a pre-election warning to opposition rivals not to attack Milosevic's throne."

FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA: "Montenegro Waits"

Independent, left-of-center Utrinski Vesnik's Balkans specialist Dragan Nikolic commented (9/13): "It is hard to believe that Milosevic will hand over the power if he loses the elections, nor that he would retire if his security is guaranteed. A military coup or an assassination is even less believable. What everybody expects is post-electoral turmoil in Serbia and a possible establishment of some 'Yugoslav national council' (similar to Avnoj), which would be the only entity recognized by the international community. In such a case, Serbia would remain a long-term 'hole in the regional donut.'... If the events move in a direction of armed conflict in Montenegro, Djukanovic might get 'a favorable wind,' maybe as a sequel of the 'unfinished Kosovo war.' Without such a sequel, Bill Clinton will have to satisfy himself with Karadjic in The Hague, while Wesley Clarke, who promoted the idea of ground invasion against Milosevic, will get satisfaction in the fact the events proved him right."

"Reconstruction Of The Serbian 'Titanic'"

New independent, opposition, left-of-center Zum Magazine ran an analysis by foreign affairs editor Valentin Nesovski (9/7): "Milosevic will not fall because it is the wish of the West, but because of the internal movement of people that don't want to live in isolation for another four years or risk another military intervention because of Montenegro, Vojvodina or Sandjak.... Having in mind the fragile democratic environment in Serbia, which is constantly manipulated by the 'maestro' from Dedinje...we are skeptical that something positive might happen this fall. Everybody needs peace in the Balkans; the dilemma of whether Montenegro and Serbia will part or stay together must be solved, but peacefully; everybody needs a peaceful Kosovo that enjoys the widest possible autonomy; and finally, anybody who is sane wants a peaceful road leading to development and prosperity. It all depends on Milosevic's fall. Good luck, Balkans."

"The Long Shadow Of The Ancestors"

Independent, liberal-left Makedonija Denes editorialized (9/6): "The opposition candidate, Vojislav Kostunica, instead of fighting for progress and better future--allegedly the goals of the united opposition--talks about the past in his speeches. In order to attract as many voters as possible, he turned to well-tested tactics--national pride.... The voices of approval from the citizens echoed through the main city square of Zajecar, while Kostunica said that 'every Serbian still has the blood of heroes in him. We will show again, on September 24, that we are worthy of our ancestors legacy.' Words about the heroic blood of the ancestors were much more loudly received than the promises for a return of democracy."

"David Fighting Goliath"

Independent, left-of-center Utrinski Vesnik held (9/6): "All the advantage that the polls give to opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica are meaningless without taking into account Belgrade's 'big brother.' Milosevic has already demonstrated that he has mastered the intangible skill of remaining in power against all odds.... Without the votes of the Renewal Movement--realistically speaking, the biggest and most powerful opposition party in Serbia--the prospects for the opposition in local and parliamentary elections, and for Kostunica in the presidential elections are not great.... The situation in Kosovo is at least twice as complicated. The ruling SPS' announcement that it will not forget Kosovo in its campaign, again affirmed Milosevic as a master-gambler who is able to make a gain in seemingly impossible situations. First of all, he will most likely manipulate the votes of non-existent voters. Second, he will show that he does not give up on Kosovo as an integral part of Serbia. Finally, he will make the Kosovar Albanians nervous, and any rash reaction on their behalf would prove useful. With some cleverly dosed public appearances and well thought out moves, Milosevic may manage to turn Kosovo from his greatest handicap into an issue that will sway the undecided voters."

BRITAIN: "A Result Tailored To Order"

The liberal Guardian editorialized (9/14): "A flurry of high-level meetings this week in New York, Washington and Zagreb has served to underscore the West's impotence in the face of mounting evidence that Slobodan Milosevic will perpetuate a massive fraud in Yugoslavia's September 24 presidential election. There is precious little NATO's political masters can or will do about it.... Among the steps Mr. Milosevic has in store are said to be up to one million ghost votes, which will supposedly be cast for him in Montenegro (despite its official poll boycott) and Kosovo; forged ballots, personation, and doctored electoral rolls; no independent verification; media censorship and blanket propaganda; and the intimidation of state employees, pensioners and public housing tenants. And if he still looks like losing, he may yet manufacture a military crisis with Montenegro's pro-Western leadership. All this the West, lacking a firm, coherent Balkan strategy, is powerless to prevent. Better have some more meetings."

"Hot In Serbia"

The conservative Times observed (9/14): "The Yugoslav presidential, parliamentary and local elections on September 24 are shaping into an event of huge significance for the Balkans. The campaign is not going according to Slobodan Milosevic's carefully laid plan. The Serbian strongman never intended these elections to be a democratic event. Their whole point is to prolong his own political life which, until he tore up and re-wrote the rump federation's constitution last July, would legally have had to end next year. Until now, it never crossed his mind that he would not win by a landslide. Yet democratic is what these elections could, improbably, turn out to be--at least until it comes to 'counting' the ballots.... 'He's finished,' the slogan of the persecuted student movement, Otpor, is everywhere. With ten days to go, rats are deserting the Milosevic ship. Mr. Milosevic could create some 'national emergency' and go from ballot box to gun. His most likely target would be Montenegro, a thorn he is itching to remove from his side, by triggering a 'civil' war. Western leaders hope for the best in Serbia; they also need actively to prepare for the worst. It will be a hot Balkan autumn--again."

FRANCE: "Milosevic's Last Salvo"

Jean-Michel Demetz asserted in right-of-center weekly L'Express (9/14): "In the long-term, Milosevic's prospects are good. After his re-election, even if it is a stolen victory, Milosevic will have neutralized the opposition. His only real concern will be to find an arrangement with the United States, the only adversary he considers to be worthy of him. Several factors play in his favor. First, the U.S. presidential election. Once Clinton is gone, nobody knows what the new administration will decide.... If the Democrats win, a new administration without Madeleine Albright, but with Richard Holbrooke, could be more conciliatory.... As for Europe, Milosevic can count on its internal differences, and France's very pro-Serbian position. Hubert Vedrine recently suggested the lifting of all sanctions against Belgrade, a very generous and surprising gift on the eve of the elections. A fatal mistake that was avoided thanks to British determination."

"Milosevic's Bravado"

Isabelle Lasserre held in right-of-center Le Figaro (9/1): "Milosevic has come out of seclusion to announce his intention to visit Kosovo. Probably to motivate his troops before the September 24 elections. But NATO will certainly keep him out.... This new bravado is clearly a sign of Milosevic's latest difficulties against the surprise candidate, Kostunica...whose politically correct nationalism pleases Serb public opinion.... The Serb opposition is convinced that Milosevic will not go easily, even if he is defeated. He could turn to massive electoral fraud, or launch a new conflict in the Balkans.... But Kostunica is positive that it is only a question of time before Milosevic goes."

GERMANY: "Beatings, Propaganda, Paranoia--Campaign Of Slobodan Milosevic"

Centrist General-Anzeiger of Bonn held (9/11): "Beatings, propaganda, paranoia. That is the election campaign of war criminal Slobodan Milosevic. Over the weekend, Serbian police severely beat seven members of the opposition student group, Otpor. At the same time, Belgrade's leadership banned a non-governmental organization from sending hundreds of neutral observers to witness the September 24 election. President Milosevic is closing ranks; he is beating up students and attacking foreign states. Domestically, the aggressive propaganda offensive is aimed at the opposition, which, under the leadership of Vojislav Kostunica, harbors justifiable hopes for a victory in two weeks. The message is clear: Only Slobo the Great means well when it comes to the Serbian people."

"Portentous Mistake"

Juergen Buxbaum noted in left-of-center Die Tageszeitung of Berlin (9/6): "The UN administration in Kosovo has given up its resistance to the inclusion of Kosovo in the Yugoslav presidential and parliamentary elections. The Western governments are pinning their hopes on these elections, and even support the Yugoslav opposition in its plan to take part in them. This is a portentous mistake since these elections, from a legal point of view, are illegal and will end with a victory of Milosevic. The implications for the crisis situation in the Balkans as a whole and in Kosovo and Bosnia in particular, are obvious. The 'democratic opposition'--we should use this term only with certain reservations, in view of complaints about corruption in those cities where this opposition is in power--is taking part in the elections fully aware of the fact that Milosevic will win. This opposition is willing to sacrifice Montenegro to gain a few positions and privileges. By the way, the greatest part of the opposition agrees with fundamental positions of the Milosevic regime and has previously shared power with him. This is why it is all the more disappointing that the Milosevic regime will succeed again in deriding the international community. What can now be done in view of this confusing situation? The only right thing is to turn around the political wheel, denouncing the elections on September 24 as illegal and calling upon the political opposition to take part only in local elections, but refrain from any other political participation. This would offer the international community and the real democratic forces in Yugoslavia the possibility of declaring the election result illegal and of fighting politically against the elimination of Montenegro as an autonomous republic."

"War Against Children"

Centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich suggested (8/29): "In the face of recent violence, more and more voices can be heard which deem the peaceful cohabitation of the two ethnic groups impossible in the long run. That may be true, but it does not have to be so. There are few signs of hope in Kosovo. Hatred for Serbs has become deeply rooted in the minds of Albanians. However, it is also clear that the daily terror is the work of a minority. The international community has to oppose this minority much more aggressively than before and promote reconciliation at the same time. The West has to do more than ritualistically invoke its helplessness. The insanity must be fought systematically."

ITALY: "Elections In The Balkans: We Shouldn't Only Follow Our Hearts"

Carlo Di Risio commented in conservative Il Tempo (9/13): "On the eve of general elections in Milosevic's Yugoslavia we should not interpret events by following our hearts.... Indeed, the last thing we should hope for is a disruption in Belgrade and the loss of leadership. The 'small Yugoslavia' is limited to Serbia, the reluctant Montenegro and the former independent territory of Voivodina. According to UN Resolution 1244, Kosovo is still part of it...and elections will also take place in this bloody territory that is seeking full independence.... Every further trauma risks breaking apart an already unconnected mosaic.... Then, there is the prevailing problem of the increased Islamization of the region. The 'Islamic belt,' from Bosnia to Kosovo and Albania finds an obstacle and a limitation in the survival of the 'small Yugoslavia.' Those who underestimate the influence of the Islamic 'centers' in the game underway in the Balkans should keep in mind several recent episodes. During the conflict in Bosnia, Iran, Libya and Sudan sent assistance to their 'Muslim brothers.'... Then, the NATO 'collision' with Belgrade brought Italy into the first line against Christian Orthodox Serbia. And Serbia has always been our ally.... Then there is business, which accounts for many developments, including U.S. hostility against Belgrade. The U.S. company Bechtel has a huge project...that will connect Batum...to Cattaro.... This project goes along the big oil pipeline from Kazakhstan to the Indian Ocean, which made the Americans support the Talibans in Afghanistan.... Indeed, in the name of 'business is business' they are supporting the plans of the Prophet's followers, with their typical inability to see the disadvantages and the future risks of what might seem an advantage now."

"Milosevic, A Deadly Challenge"

Enzo Bettiza wrote in centrist, influential La Stampa (9/10) about Mr. Milosevic's strategy to keep the presidency, noting the risks involved for him but also three factors that may help Mr. Milosevic: lack of decisiveness on the part of Western nations, the weakness of the Serbian opposition, and the support of desperate masses of people. Bettiza observed: "The general situation in the Balkans is currently characterized by a sort of stagnant instability. Like ten years ago, whether this instability remains cold or becomes hot again still depends essentially on Milosevic. Ground troops were deployed in Kosovo only after the end of the truce and the withdrawal of Serbian troops. Would ground troops perhaps land earlier in a Montenegro affected by a possible civil war? Would they die for the defense of a group of pro-independence rebels in an almost unknown Balkan nation? These are the questions that, from opposite point of views, Milosevic and the hesitating Western governments are asking themselves in view of the September 24 elections."

"Kosovo, Milosevic Defies NATO"

An article by Stefania Di Lellis in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica held (9/1): "Slobodan Milosevic defies the West again. In less than 24 hours, he dispatched his supporter Gorica Gajevic, secretary general of the Socialist Party, to Kosovo for an election speech without informing local UN administrators. He has also established that the Serbs living in Kosovo will vote in the Yugoslavian elections on September 24, in defiance of indications to the contrary, which have been heard from the UN Misson in Pristina over the last few days. And, finally, he went so far as to have his spokesman announce his visit--in grand style--to Kosovo and Montenegro in the near future. A volley of provocations that has left the international community dumbfounded. The chief of the UN administration in Pristina, Bernard Kouchner, has postponed any comments until today.... Hectic consultations have been underway since yesterday morning with Western diplomats, and a meeting is scheduled to take place this morning with the representatives of all the ethnic groups participating in the temporary government in Kosovo. So far, the only firm answer has come from NATO: 'If Milosevic sets foot in Kosovo, he will be arrested,' the Alliance let it be known. KFOR troops, in fact, will have to carry out the mandate of arrest issued by The Hague Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, which, in May 1999, indicted Milosevic for crimes against the Albanians in Kosovo.... The most immediate concern of the UN administration, however, is Milosevic's decision to have the 100,000 Serbs still living in Kosovo vote in the next elections."

"Milosevic: 'I Will Go To Kosovo'"

Andrea Nicastro wroite in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (9/1): "Milosevic wants to go to Kosovo. He let it be known that he is going there to convince the Serbs still living there to vote for him in the September 24 elections. There is no doubt that the Yugoslav president deserves the surname 'fox of the Balkans.' His Western enemies risk being caught unprepared, and being forced to use strength in a situation where right and wrong may be mixed up. After all, what is there more democratic than an electoral rally? The scene would be grotesque: Milosevic would present himself at the Serbia-Kosovo border controlled by NATO troops.... The military official in charge could do nothing else at that point but declare him under arrest, as was confirmed by NATO headquarters in Brussels.... What would happen in that case? A shooting? This is certainly a nightmare for Western governments, but not for Milosevic, who has a more important goal in mind--victory in the next elections."

"Milosevic: 'I Will Go To Kosovo'"

Ingrid Badurina filed from Zagreb for centrist, influential La Stampa (9/1): "The surprise pre-electoral moves by Milosevic's Socialist Party have caught international officials based in Kosovo totally unprepared. The UN administrator, Bernard Kouchner, let it be known that he will issue a statement on the matter of the elections today. Yesterday Kouchner failed to attend a press conference in which he was scheduled to participate along with Javier Solana."

RUSSIA: "Pining For The South"

Aleksandr Ivanitsky said in reformist Noviye Izvestiya (9/15): "The commander of the U.S. Air Force in Europe, Gregory Martin, has stated that if Belgrade were to try to occupy Montenegro and oust President Djukanovic, NATO's reaction would go beyond what it did in Kosovo.... Even Russian liberals called NATO's air war inappropriate. As the call to mount a cross on St. Sofia Cathedral in Constantinople symbolized Russia's dream about the Black Sea Straits, so 'Sehnsucht nach Sueden' (pining for the South) did Germany's drive to the Adriatic.... Unlike the Kosovars, the Montenegrins will not even think of defending themselves. Djukanovic proved that when he refused to declare independence for fear of internal strife with the Serbs. So bombing alone won't help. In Montenegro, NATO is not fighting Milosevic--it is pushing its way to the Adriatic."

BELGIUM: "Hardening Before The Elections"

Christophe Lamfalussy wrote in independent La Libre Belgique (9/15): "Ten days before the elections, the electoral campaign in Serbia has taken a worrying course, and there is an increasing number of searches, of arrests, and of defections in Slobodan Milosevic's 'historical' entourage. The Yugoslav president--who, according to the polls, will lose to main opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica, seems determined to intimidate and to criminalize the opposition in the hope of convincing his voters that he is the only one capable of ruling Serbia."

Reporting that Milosevic's mentor Ivo Stambolic disappeared on August 25 and is rumored to be detained in Belgrade's central jail, and that writer Dobrica Cosic, one of the founding fathers of Serbian nationalism, stated that he would support opposition candidate Kostunica, Lamfalussy continued: "These astonishing defections indicate Milosevic's unpopularity, but they also highlight the unhappiness of a part of the nomenklatura with the increasing influence of the Yugoslav Left--JUL--in the coalition in power in Belgrade.... Far from crumpling because of these defections, the regime hardens. Police are daily harassing the population. The main target is the Otpor student movement, but also the civic defense organizations, which are accused of being financed by the West.... Belgrade did not silence the opposition completely, as independent journalists working for web sites, news agencies, and newsletters continue to work more or less normally. But the regime controls all the popular (i.e. pro-Milosevic) media which are received throughout Serbia. These media are flattering Serbian nationalist feelings. These feelings will have the opportunity to become even stronger on September 18, when the trial in absentia of 14 Western leaders accused of having led the NATO attacks on Yugoslavia will start in Belgrade. Opposition leader Kostunica was smart enough to distance himself from the international community. Last Monday, during a press conference in Belgrade. He said: 'The radicalization of the situation in Serbia and of Milosevic's behavior for the elections was initiated one year ago by the ICTY indictment (of Milosevic.)"

"Danger In Serbia"

Axel Buyse held in independent Catholic De Standaard (9/14): "Western powers are preparing a 'coup' against Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and they can count on the help of the United Democratic Opposition (DOS) which, no matter what the outcome of the elections, will claim victory. That is what Yugoslav Information Minister Goran Matic says. This is not his first conspiracy theory. Generally well-informed observers, however, are now tempted to support his vision--to a certain extent.... It is certain beforehand that the outcome of the elections will be strongly contested by the losing party. Foreign observers, who could legitimize the elections, will be absent. The Milosevic regime does not want any meddlers--not even from 'friendly' countries. There is even a major chance that domestic activists will be denied access to the voting booths. One of the most plausible scenarios for the post-election days is a dangerous deadlock: a situation in which both the democratic opposition and the tandem of Milosevic's Serbian Socialist Party and the Communists (JUL) of his wife Mirjana Markovic claim victory.... The result might be that the decisive battle is fought in the streets--with all the consequences that it entails.... If it comes to a deadlock--with a hesitating police force--the militias might be able to bend the situation toward one direction or another. No matter what, Yugoslavia is heading for an extremely dangerous situation with unpredictable consequences.... Moreover, just before the elections, Milosevic might resort to some stunt. An 'unfortunate conjunction of circumstances'--for instance, the arrest by NATO of Serbian nationalists who are accused of war crimes--could reshuffle the electoral cards thoroughly."

"A Perverse Economy"

Axel Buyse wrote in independent Catholic De Standaard (9/9): "In opposition circles, one does not hear criticism of the black list that Western countries use to refuse visas to leaders of the Milosevic regime. But, nobody has a positive word for the economic sanctions and the oil embargo, in particular.... 'You Europeans, have made us as poor as a church mouse, and people who are so poor and lose their dignity are ten times more vulnerable to manipulations by the regime,' a Serbian businessman says.... It is clear to everyone who ever visited Serbia in earlier days that poverty and bitterness are rapidly spreading. The entire infrastructure of the country is worsening.... The Serbian economy continues to be a 'socialistic' centrally planned economy. The privatization of 1990-1994 resulted de facto in an even stronger grip by the state. Statistical data--if available at all--is totally unreliable.

"The state--or better: a small groups of confidants of federal President Milosevic and his wife Mirjana Markovic--manipulate, when necessary, the money printing press of the National Bank and prices. Private entrepreneurs, in general, and their accountants, in particular, operate in a climate of fiscal arbitrariness and de facto lawlessness. That is partly due to the fact that Belgrade, because of the sanctions, has not been forced to account for its actions before the international financial institutions.... In the meantime, the oil boycott against Yugoslavia makes people like Milosevic's son Marko excessively rich. Gasoline can be obtained everywhere in Serbia, so long as you pay with deutsche marks. 'Who controls the distribution and the import? Right, the Family,' an economist complains."

BULGARIA: "Even If Milosevic Loses, His People Will Remain In Power"

Center-right Standart opined (9/12): "For the first time this century, the Serbs cannot understand why Serbia is not supported by the world and why the Serbian nation is being divided. This explains the absolute belief of all Serbs that all of Milosevic's wars are just. Exploiting and riding on this rich wave of Greater Serbia myths and on the real problems of the Serbian nation, Milosevic is, to a large extent, its hostage as well.... This is why he will use all resources afforded by his current position to win another term in the office so...postpone his inevitable political death.... It is obvious that no matter who the new Yugoslav president will be, he will not be a legitimate representative of at least one part of Yugoslavia--Kosovo.... Even if the most optimistic forecasts come true, this would be only the beginning of a very long process of internal reform."

"Milosevic--Sphinx Of The Yugoslavia Tomb"

Center-left Sega commented (8/28): "Slobodan Milosevic is starting to look more like a sphinx every day.... The catastrophic state of the country is always someone else's fault, and he restores justice by making changes in the government.... How long is this going to continue? The ruin of what was the most prosperous state in the Balkans a decade ago will most likely continue for years. Healing the Serbs will be difficult, and the trauma inflicted on them will continue to be felt for generations. The isolation with which the West is punishing Milosevic will continue to affect negatively those countries that have the misfortune of being Yugoslavia's neighbors. Isolation is Milosevic's biggest ally and a source of his wealth. The embargo cemented Castro and Saddam's power.... The sphinx Milosevic will continue to guard the Yugoslavia tomb for a long time to come."

HUNGARY: "Serbia Between Black And Chicken Pox"

Foreign affairs writer Endre Gomori argued in influential, business weekly Figyelo (9/7): "The earlier offer, that the Belgrade dictator should somehow be removed in a peaceful way, showed NATO's helplessness and the lack of an effective military-political concept. Milosevic recognized that he had until November, when U.S. elections would open the 'window of chance' for him. He started a counter-attack. He amended the constitution and reduced Montenegro's election chances. The real zone of threat is Montenegro, whose Djukanovic-led government will boycott the September elections. It couldn't do anything else because participating would legitimize Milosevic's rule." About the U.S. Office of Yugoslav Affairs in Budapest, Gomori said: "Today Montenegro is the most dangerous spot in Europe and Washington can only try to have political influence there. And the center of it is the 'Office Of Yugoslav Affairs' at the U.S. Embassy in Budapest, led by former Zagreb Ambassador Montgomery. The fact that the office has been established right here in Hungary qualifies as an immeasurable risk to the Hungarian minority in Vojvodina, because it inevitably increases tension in Belgrade-Budapest relations (ban on Duna TV broadcasts). The primary objective of the office, i.e., trying to get Draskovic to form a united opposition front, has already failed.

"And the condition that Washington, under international legislation, considers Montenegro part of the Yugoslav state has a paralyzing effect on the office's operation at its most dangerous point. Consequently, any kind of interference, carried out via physical tools, would raise the same painful dilemma that Washington and NATO had to face already in Kosovo."

"Milosevic Escaping Again"

Senior columnist Janos Avar noted in Sunday daily Vasarnapi Hirek (9/3): "It has turned out again that Milosevic is still fooling the world and everybody can only guess at what he is up to this time. Many fear that a new lesson is going to be taught, this time to Montenegro, or worse, that another war in the Balkans is coming.... It is really irrational that somebody takes his nation and his people from failure to failure, and still preserves his rule. Somehow the Serbs should be saved from this 'circulus viciosus' to which they have been taken by their leader. And where the strongman keeps a whole nation hostage."

"Disapperance Of Stamboic"

Nandor Pilcz commented in top-circulation Nepszabadsag (8/28) about the mysterious disappearance of former Serbia President Ivan Stambolic: "He always criticized the Milosevic regime heavily whenever he had the chance. Is it merely due to this that he has disappeared into complete darkness? Yes, merely because of this, says the democratic Serb opposition who feel that, with the September 24 election nearing, the current regime will do its best to intimidate politicians, as well as men on the street. Should anyone have any doubts about who might have kidnapped Stambolic, the victim's lawyer said, they should think about that the state-controlled Serb media, which has been tight lipped-about the disappearance story for the third day now."

IRELAND: "Taking On Milosevic"

The moderately conservative Irish Times observed (9/15): "The arrival on Yugoslavia's political scene of Mr. Vojislav Kostunica as a force capable of defeating President Slobodan Milosevic in the forthcoming elections has given hope to many ordinary Yugoslav citizens and to democrats and human rights activists elsewhere.... In most countries an electoral defeat of the margin predicted in Yugoslav opinion polls would destroy the credibility of the losing candidate to an extent that he would be forced to resign. Yugoslavia is not one of those countries. Public opinion does not count for much in a police state controlled by a despotic and avaricious leader. The police force is strongly armed, extremely supportive of Mr. Milosevic's leadership and is paid well enough to resist temptation to disloyalty. In short, it can be relied upon to put down opposition protests by the brutal methods it has used so often in the past. In this context the urgings of Western powers that the Yugoslav people should overthrow their president appear disingenuous in the extreme. It is to be hoped, however, that the prospect of further chicanery on Mr. Milosevic's part does not deter voters from turning out to express their opposition to his presidency."

SWEDEN: "Adverse Wind For Milosevic"

Conservative Svenska Dagbladet editorialized (9/4): "An opinion poll before the presidential elections in Serbia on September 24 gives the Serb democratic opposition challenger, Vojislav Kostunica, 51 percent of the votes compared to 31 for Slobodan Milosevic. Should the figures hold, this would be the first step in the process which Serbia has to undergo before its status as an international pariah will be removed. Although Kostunica is no dream of a mother-in-law, the future for the country can be spelled: post-Milosevic. But this may not come true. Milosevic has previously, when his position has been threatened, had cards up his sleeve, all relating to force and aggression.... Let's hope that this fall in the Balkans will result in a political spring. It has been a very long winter. But to cover ourselves we better prepare for trouble."

EAST ASIA

PHILIPPINES: "A New Breed Of Dictator"

University of the Philippines Professor Ben Lim, in his column in the independent Philippine Post (8/29), noted views on Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic, particularly those expressed in Charles Simic's book Anatomy of a Murderer. Lim wrote: "Milosevic's success was not only the result of his exploitation of ethnic minority nationalism and his brainwashing the Serbs, but also of the U.S. foreign policy responses to the events in Yugoslavia. When Serbian leaders asked the United States to get rid of Milosevic they were rejected and instead they were pressed to accept the Dayton Accord, which transformed Milosevic from the 'butcher of the Balkans' into a peacemaker. Then in 1992, when Milosevic was politically weak and the Serbians were beginning to see him for what he actually was, the United States introduced economic sanctions, which bankrupted independent businessmen and impoverished the relatively prosperous farmers. Western leaders appear unable to understand that dictators could not care less about the fate of their countrymen as long as they stay in power. When NATO bombed Kosovo, again it was collective punishment in which innocent Serbs were made to pay, but it gave Milosevic, who was well protected in his shelters, an excuse for wartime censorship...and for terrorizing the opposition. Simic notes that if Milosevic is serene today, it is because the NATO intervention was a failure.... The post-Cold War world is not ready to deal with dictators who believe in nothing and have no conscience whatever, except to perpetuate themselves in power."

WESTERN HEMISPHERE

CANADA: "Mr. Milosevic Makes More Mischief In Kosovo"

Marcus Gee wrote in the leading Globe and Mail (9/5): "Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic may be many things, but dumb he is not. Last week, he chucked a cat among the pigeons when he said he planned to set up polling stations in Kosovo for this month's Yugoslav presidential and parliamentary elections. The proposal is ridiculous on its face.... Mr. Milosevic knows all this. He knows that Kosovo is as lost to Yugoslavia as Croatia and Slovenia and Bosnia are. But with an election coming up, he saw an excellent opportunity to make mischief, and grabbed it.... This sent the international community into a tizzy.... Here is the dilemma for the internationals. If they allow the vote, Kosovo Albanians will be furious and there could be trouble. International troops could find themselves in the odd position of having to protect Serbian election officials as they carry out a mainly symbolic vote in a territory that Serbia does not control. If, on the other hand, the internationals stop the Kosovo vote, Belgrade will accuse them of blocking a democratic exercise and going back on their promise that Kosovo would remain part of Yugoslavia. If Mr. Milosevic can make that charge during an election campaign, and pose as the nationalist who stood up to the West, it might help him stay in power. For that reason, opposition leaders in Serbia support holding a Kosovo vote and say they will campaign if it goes ahead. However this little tussle turns out, it has served to underline the dangerous ambiguity and confusion that surrounds the future of Kosovo. International officials in Kosovo privately admit that they have no idea where they are supposed to be heading. Are they preparing Kosovo for independence? Are they merely babysitting the place? Who will run Kosovo after they go and on what basis? As a province? A protectorate? A nation? As long as this confusion exists, Mr. Milosevic will have ample room to play mischief-maker in Kosovo." ##