DATE=9/6/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=LEBANON POLITICS
NUMBER=5-46970
BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB
DATELINE=BEIRUT
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Lebanon's elections have produced a major
victory for former Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri.
Results of the second round of voting this week
indicate Hariri supporters will control one-third of
the seats in the next Parliament. Mr. Hariri is
expected to return to government leadership. His
relations with President Emile Lahoud and the Syrian
government have often been strained, and many
observers predict Lebanese politics are about to enter
a stormy period. Correspondent Scott Bobb has been
covering the elections in Beirut.
TEXT: Many Lebanese recall that Mr. Hariri declined
the post of prime minister two-years ago, when
President Lahoud was elected. And during the recent
campaign, Mr. Hariri came under personal attack from
government-owned news media.
Moreover, it is widely believed that the two leaders,
who both have strong personalities, do not get along.
As a result, there are worries here of a clash between
Mr. Hariri, one of Lebanon's wealthiest businessmen,
and President Lahoud, a former armed-forces commander
who is seen as close to the government of Syria.
Syria sent 30-thousand troops into this country to
help end years of civil war. Ten-years later, it
continues to play an influential role in Lebanese
politics. Mr. Hariri has sought to dispel the worries
and counter the charges. Following the election, he
praised Syria's role in Lebanon.
/// HARIRI ACT ///
The Syrians are playing a positive role in
Lebanon, as they used to play. And now, more
and more they are playing a positive role and
they will support Lebanon in anything Lebanon
needs.
/// END ACT ///
Many Lebanese analysts agree there was less
interference than before with the actual voting on
election day. But they charge that prior to the
election, the Syrian and Lebanese governments
manipulated voting districts and electoral lists in
favor of certain candidates.
The secretary-general of the Association for
Democratic Elections monitoring group, Hassan Krayem,
says the Hariri victory was bigger than expected and
that probably surprised the Syrian government. But he
thinks the Syrians will be able to deal with any new
changes.
/// KRAYEM ACT ///
Most probably the Syrians' interest is to
protect their interests in Lebanon, and find the
appropriate formula that would enhance the
continuity of their kind of domination in the
Syrian-Lebanese relations.
/// END ACT ///
One Lebanese political analyst, Michael Young, thinks
Syrian influence in Lebanon has lessened. He says the
Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon last May has
raised pressure for the withdrawal of the Syrian
troops stationed in Lebanon. And, he says, the
government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who
came to power following the death of his father three-
months ago, is currently preoccupied with the
political transition and economic problems at home.
Mr. Young says there appears to be less Syrian
preoccupation with Lebanon at this time, although this
could change.
/// YOUNG ACT ///
Yes, the Syrian role has changed in Lebanon.
The big question today, however, given that
Lahoud has suffered such a political defeat, is
whether the Syrian role will yet again change,
because obviously they will have to manage this
very uneasy relationship between [President]
Lahoud, on the one hand, and [former Prime
Minister] Hariri, on the other.
/// END ACT ///
Another analyst, a political-science professor at the
American University of Beirut, Farid Khazem, believes
the fundamental relationship between Syria and Lebanon
has not changed. But he says the election and the
campaign leading up to it have broken what he calls
the taboo against discussing the Syrians' influence in
Lebanon.
/// KHAZEM ACT ///
The issue of Syria's military presence and the
issue of Syrian-Lebanese relations is now being
discussed, and needs to be reviewed and revised,
so that both countries will have an even
relationship, and a relationship that will be
beneficial to both countries and both peoples.
/// END ACT ///
Syria has sought to dispel worries and dispel the
charges of dominance. The newspaper of the ruling
Baath party in Damascus published a front-page
editorial welcoming Mr. Hariri's victory and
predicting President Lahoud will choose the next prime
minister according to the constitution.
The editorial also criticizes reports of a looming
political crisis in Lebanon. It says Syria kept an
equal distance from all candidates during the Lebanese
elections, and was eager to see a free and honest
vote. This is seen as virtually an official
endorsement of Mr. Hariri to be Lebanon's next prime
minister. But confirmation will have to wait for the
opening of the new parliament in late October, when
presidential consultations about the choice for prime
minister begin, and political deal-making emerges from
behind the scenes. (SIGNED)
NEB/FSB/WTW/RAE
06-Sep-2000 10:46 AM EDT (06-Sep-2000 1446 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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