DATE=8/16/2000 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT TITLE=TENSE MONTENEGRO NUMBER=5-46866 BYLINE=ED WARNER DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: Another part of Yugoslavia is threatening to erupt. Montenegro is seeking more autonomy or perhaps independence, while Belgrade is determined to prevent it. Will Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic resort to military force? No one knows for sure, and how the west would react is unclear. VOA's Ed Warner reports the deepening crisis in this isolated, mountainous, defiantly proud region of Yugoslavia. TEXT: On a recent trip to Montenegro, Jeffrey Gedmin of the American Enterprise Institute found tensions rising: /// GEDMIN ACT /// There are people who work for the foreign ministry who are of non-military assignment who wear civilian clothes who pack small machineguns in their briefcases. As one journalist described it to me: "Everything is calm, and chaos could break out at any moment." /// END ACT /// Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic has increased the pressure on Montenegro to halt its westward drift. Some 15 thousand Serbian troops stand ready in Montenegro to enforce his will, if need be. They are matched in numbers, if not in training, by police loyal to the republic. For the moment, neither side is forcing the issue, but Mr. Gedmin thinks the deadlock must eventually be broken: /// GEDMIN ACT /// How does it promote economic development in a situation where Montenegro remains a part of Yugoslavia and where foreign investment will simply not be attracted for that and other reasons? It seems to me it is an uneasy balance where sooner or later (Montenegro President Milo) Djucanovic is either going to have to pull away or internal forces, perhaps provoked directly by Milosevic, will say, "Enough with this pro-western flirtation. He has got to go." /// END ACT /// The result, says Mr. Gedmin, could be a more devastating war than in Kosovo or Bosnia. Montenegrins remain sharply divided. After some successes in local elections in June, Milosevic supporters now control seven of twenty-one municipalities, and surveys show substantial opposition to independence. The Yugoslav leader has already won much of the battle, says David Serwer of the U-S Institute of Peace in Washington. Montenegrins have been steadily isolated: /// SERWER ACT /// They have essentially no influence any longer on anything that happens in Yugoslavia. They are impoverished in part by an economic blockade, and they can do nothing to remove his army from their territory. So in many respects he has already achieved a good deal of his objectives. What is unclear is whether he will go beyond that to try to get rid of Djucanovic and to establish direct personal control over Montenegro probably through one of his proxies. /// END ACT /// Mr. Serwer says Milosevic is unlikely to act until after the September 24 Presidential election that he is expected to win. The Montenegrin government is refusing to participate in what it considers a rigged vote. Mr. Milosevic may also count on some backing from Russia: /// SERWER ACT /// Russia has been showing inclinations under Putin to use Serbia to aggravate the West and NATO in particular. They do not seem to have any particular sympathy with Milosevic, but he is a thorn in the side of NATO. But I think Moscow would have no reason to be happy with a Serbian crackdown on Montenegro, which might then precipitate another NATO intervention, which would show Russia in a bad light. /// END ACT /// Would NATO intervene in a showdown in Montenegro? That too, remains a matter of conjecture. The west has warned President Milosevic not to attack Montenegro, notes Mr. Serwer, but then he has had twenty-one final warnings since 1990 and may not take this one very seriously. Mr. Gedmin expects a replay of the west's response to Bosnia and Kosovo. Nato will wait for others to act, and then it will react. It devoutly hopes nothing bad will happen and for the moment, nothing is. But can it last? (Signed) NEB/EW/TVM/PT 16-Aug-2000 17:28 PM EDT (16-Aug-2000 2128 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
