DATE=8/4/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA / CHECHNYA ANNIVERSARY
NUMBER=5-46788
BYLINE=EVE CONANT
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: One year ago this week, Chechen-based
guerillas raided the predominantly Muslim republic of
Dagestan in Russia's volatile North Caucasus region.
After weeks of fighting, tens of thousands of Russian
troops were sent directly into Chechnya. Their stated
goal - to establish a buffer zone around the republic.
But by the end of September, Russian forces had
launched a full ground offensive aimed at re-taking
all of Chechnya and making amends for their
humiliating defeat in a two-year civil war that ended
in 1996. V-O-A Moscow correspondent Eve Conant
reports the present war, which Russian officials call
an "anti-terrorist" operation, has dragged on despite
the military's promise to win a quick victory over the
Chechen rebels.
TEXT: Speaking on the anniversary of the conflict's
beginning, Russian President Vladimir Putin described
the Chechen rebel cause as an undeclared war against
Russia that had been underway for years.
/// PUTIN ACT - IN RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER
///
President Putin says terrorists were preparing for
full-scale aggression. He says what he calls Russia's
"decisive actions to restore law in Chechnya put an
end to the destruction of Russia." He says Russia is
paying a high price for this, but -- in his words -
"the war's victims have not died in vain."
Mr. Putin was speaking to the families of 84 Russian
paratroopers killed during an ambush by Chechen
guerillas.
When the war began, Russia's generals promised a swift
victory. One year later, the rebels are still in full
control of one-third of Chechnya, which they use as a
base to stage deadly counterattacks against poorly-
trained, ill-equipped, and frightened young Russian
conscripts in the other two-thirds.
Political analyst Viktor Kremenyuk says that although
Russian troops have won most of Chechnya, the battle
is not over.
/// KREMENYUK ACT ///
Now the war has moved into a guerilla-type war
where you could not hope for a quick success.
Much may depend not on military action now,
but on political and economic action. But I'm
afraid Moscow is currently not capable of
doing both. So we are doomed to witness a
guerilla-type war which may continue say for the
next few years.
/// END ACT ///
Although that guerilla war is still in full swing, the
Kremlin has moved ahead with what it calls the
"restoration phase" of the campaign involving a pro-
Moscow Chechen government in the republic.
But the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Alan
Rousso, says the guerilla campaign and the
assassination this week of a pro-Moscow Chechen
official illustrate just how difficult it will be for
the Kremlin to restore stability.
/// ROUSSO ACT ///
The pro-Moscow Chechens are not speaking with
one mind as we saw recently when there was a
direct battle between the mufti [EDS: Islamic
religious leader] who had been handed
responsibility for Chechnya and one of the heads
of the gendarmes in Chechnya. So I think this
is an extremely complicated situation where
you've got infighting among the pro-Moscow
Chechens, infighting among the anti-Moscow
Chechens, and infighting between the pro-Moscow
and anti-Moscow Chechens. It's not likely to
sort itself out anytime soon.
/// END ACT ///
While President Putin's popularity is still high,
recent polls show that support is fading for the war
that helped bring him to power. One opinion poll says
40 percent of Russians want the Kremlin to begin
negotiations with the rebels, up from 30 percent in
June. The poll says almost 50 percent of Russians
still support the war, but that figure is down 20
percent from what is was just a few months ago.
/// BEGIN OPT ///
On the streets of Moscow, there is great skepticism
about the Russian army's ability to win a military
victory. Thirty-two-year old Anya Tokareva says she
supports negotiations but does not think peace talks
would end the conflict.
/// TOKAREVA ACT - IN RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER
///
She says the war is endless, partly because of what
she calls "the nature of the Chechen people, and
partly because of the economic problems there." She
says talks would be helpful but they will not solve
everything.
Sixty-three-year old Pavel Bushtets says the problem
originated not over the past year, but because of
the leadership style of former Russian President Boris
Yeltsin.
/// BUSHTETS ACT - IN RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER
///
He says he personally supports negotiations, but that
there is no one to conduct them. He says, "this was
caused by the pathetic rule of our former president
who was incapable of settling national issues. There
needs to be a forceful regime there."
/// END OPT ///
What has remained constant over this past year is the
effort of the Russian government to keep public
information about the war, and especially about
Russian casualties, to a minimum. Information has
been scarce and contradictory.
For example, when the conflict began, Russian General
Valery Manilov said five-thousand rebels were fighting
Russian troops. But this week he claimed 14-thousand
rebels had already been killed. He also contradicted
his earlier figure by saying the original Chechen
force was 26-thousand rebels, supported by
international mercenaries.
Both sides are known to exaggerate enemy casualty
figures and minimize their own. Russian official
figures say less than three-thousand federal troops
have died over the past year in Chechnya, but
independent reports say that figure is much higher.
(Signed)
NEB/EC/JWH/JP
04-Aug-2000 10:13 AM LOC (04-Aug-2000 1413 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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