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Commentary from ... Europe East Asia |
| July 12, 2000 Yugoslavia: 'Milosevic Forever?' A 'Divorce' For Montenegro? |
The Yugoslav parliament's recent moves to reform the federation's constitution captured the attention of Balkan watchers in Europe and China. The successful passage of laws that will allow Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to stand for re-election through the ballot box and change the voting procedures for the upper house provoked consternation among analysts overseas. Noting that the move to secure power was only the latest in a string of "coups de theatre" by the Serbian strongman, commentators feared that his continued rule will only prolong Serbia's isolation and delay democracy in a nation that has seen only strife in the last decade. They also contended that the new voting rules based on direct election of deputies in the upper chamber of the Yugoslav parliament will result in far fewer representatives from Montenegro, reducing the tiny republic's influence within Yugoslavia. They asserted that Mr. Milosevic is being "openely provocative" with Podgorica, and several warned that the rising tension between Serbia and Montenegro will be the next "spark" that will ignite yet another Balkan war. Other opinionmakers weighed in on the Yugoslav parliament's proposed anti-terrorism law--which was subsequently withdrawn at the last minute by the lawmakers. Analysts expressed concern that should such a law come into force, it would serve to stifle dissent and bring Serbia "closer to the brink of civil war." Finally, several analysts focused on the situation in Kosovo, with most concluding that following the NATO campaign last year, only "disaster" has marked the peacekeeping effort. Highlights follow:
'MILOSEVIC FOREVER'?: Constitutional changes that will give President Milosevic a chance to run for the presidency again raised alarm among European editorialists. Some ruminated on the reasons behind his action, with most seeing it as an obvious and "characteristic" move to "save himself from The Hague [war crimes tribunal]" and "public assassins." The ramification of the constitutional change, Skopje's independent, liberal-left Makedonija Denes averred, would be that "in the next nine years, Milosevic will be able to have Serbia enjoying good relations with Saddam Hussein and no one else...[and] the Serbian people...will continue to feed...on roots and herbs." Milan's centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera pointed out that Mr. Milosevic's successful grab for power is also a "confirmation of how illusory are the alternative hypotheses mentioned by the media over the last few months: a violent overthrow, the growth of the opposition, a soft way out for Milosevic, secret negotiations for a golden exile in exchange for immunity." Pundits stressed that the Serbian opposition still poses no threat to the Belgrade regime because it remains divided and "incompetent." A few critics urged that sanctions against Serbia be lifted, contending that continuing isolation of Serbia will not help promote progress.
A 'DIVORCE' FOR MONTENEGRO?: Editorialists in Germany and Italy agreed that President Milosevic is deliberately "undermining the equal status of Montenegro" in the federation because it will give him "the opportunity to fight for Yugoslav soil in a heroic manner against the enemies and traitors of Serbia, and this in an election year." All writers worried that the situation between Serbia and Montenegro "may explode."
EDITOR: Diana McCaffrey
EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 29 reports from 9 countries June 6-July 12. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA: "Dangerous Games"
Government-owned, right-of-center Nova Makedonija ran a front page editorial (7/11): "In a situation of highly tense relations between Montenegro and Serbia, it was not by accident that the Montenegrin parliament passed a resolution that calls for the general population, the police and the federal army to stay calm. A single spark can easily cause a civil war not only in Montenegro and Serbia, but all around, and then Dayton, the Stability Pact and all the international efforts to reach peace and stability in the region will go down the drain. The international community is also called upon to assist in the process of finding a solution. After all the mistakes made, the West is reluctant to support the idea for Montenegro's independence which can not be achieved without a war. On the other hand, the West can use the current volatile situation to further the increase of sanctions against Serbia, in spite of the fact that they are largely ineffective. Those countries that demand that these sanctions be abolished may be on the right track, since this most probably would be the best solution for democratic development in Serbia. If the Serb people continue to be isolated, they will more than likely continue to support the regime. Not because they admire the regime, but more as a show of resistance directed at the intervention on the part of the international community in Serb affairs."
"Walking A Tight Rope"
Independent, liberal-left Makedonija Denes held (7/10): "The latest constitutional changes make it clear that there is nothing behind Milosevic's generous offer to just say 'good bye' to the Montenegrins if they decide to leave the federation. It is another bad judgment by Milosevic, who on several occasions has thought that the desires for independence were only bluffs made by the leaders of the other former Yugoslav republics. Every reality check of that judgment has brought bloodshed in the past. Djukanovic also fears such an ending for the 'fifth Yugoslavia.' He continues to make moves that, in spite of all the Western support that he has, leave enough room for a dialogue. However, he did not miss the opportunity to say that if it comes to bullets flying, Montenegro is not completely without a chance."
"Milosevic's Hostages"
Independent, left-of-center Utrinski Vesnik ran this editorial by Dragan Nikolic (7/10): "By strengthening his federal leadership and thus saving himself from The Hague (a position that we understand), Milosevic also strengthens his greatest opponents in Kosovo. He strengthens the positions of Hashim Thaqi and weakens Thaqi's more moderate opponent Rugova. That brings into question the Stability Pact itself, and that should be a subject of a wider regional and international concern. A powerful Milosevic will mean an unstable, conflict riddled and dangerous region."
"Constitutional Cold Shower"
Independent, liberal-left Makedonija Denes ran this op-ed (7/8): "Do Draskovic, Djukanovic, Djindjic and other Yugoslav democrats live in Yugoslavia or not? Did they, so self-preoccupied as they are, forget what their goal was--to oust Milosevic from his throne?
"Like all the other certified Balkan politicians, they probably forgot that the international support they all have is, alas, only a secondary tool to achieve what they all want--to bring the people on their side and to convince them that the state needs democracy and new leadership.... Milosevic's move was so predictable, having in mind the history of his politics and prior moves. In the next nine years, Milosevic will be able to have Serbia enjoying good relations with Saddam Hussein and no one else. The Serbian people, on the other hand, will continue to feed themselves on roots and herbs and will believe that they elect Milosevic as a real national leader every four years only because his only competition is the self-loving and incompetent opposition."
"Pure Dictatorship"
Independent, liberal-left weekly Denes remarked on the proposed Yugoslav anti-terorism law, which was ultimately withdrawn by the Yugoslav parliament (6/22): "If the Serb authorities really pass the announced law against terrorism, they will, unfortunately, bring Serbia closer to the brink of civil war. Simply, the people will be terrorized by the regime (actually, it should be called the 'law promoting terrorism') and those who are desperate and pushed to the wall, without any other option and alternative, are most likely to pick up a gun and fight. Serbia enters a very delicate period, in which the chances of peaceful and democratic settlement for the political problems is much smaller than the chances to settle them through civil war."
GERMANY: "The Srebrenica Principle"
Peter Muench noted in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (7/12): "Fear is governing the West's politics in the Balkans. It is the fear to be pulled once again into a war whose political aim is unclear. Just as nobody knows today what shall become of the UN protectorate in Kosovo, there is also no solution in sight for the Montenegro problem. A separation from Milosevic's influence accompanied by a declaration of independence would mean civil war. Montenegro's President Djukanovic, whose reputation as a reformer is much better than his erratic vita...is likely counting on NATO support if such a scenario became reality. But the danger of NATO being used is great. The West has gained painful experience with being used in Kosovo. The Albanians have twisted the Alliance's victory against Belgrade into a blanket permission for taking revenge on the Serbs. They are responsible in part for the fact that the West has lost courage in the Balkans. The disaster following the Kosovo mission has marked the Alliance deeply enough to discourage any interest in new adventures. Since political sanctions have proven ineffective till today, the West has no room to act in the Balkans. The freedom to act lies once again with Belgrade, with Slobodan Milosevic."
"Milosevic Forever"
Right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung noted (7/7): "The office of president offers the greatest protection from public prosecution and from assassins. This is why Milosevic makes his party's supporters amend the constitution, since autocrats of his kind want to keep at least appearances that their rule is democratically legitimized. Montenegro's deprivation of power also serves to stabilize the Belgrade regime. The undermining of the equal status of Montenegro in the formally still existing federation is an open provocation. Milosevic is not afraid of Montenegro becoming independent...since this would offer him the opportunity to fight for Yugoslav soil in a heroic manner against the enemies and traitors of Serbia, and this in an election year."
"The Fire Continues To Burn"
Ralf Schuler judged in right-of-center Maerkische Allgemeine Zeitung of Potsdam (7/7): "The amendment to the constitution...is a clear omen for a new crisis in the Balkans.... The real bomb of this 'reform,' however, is not the president privately securing his power, but the looming conflict with Montenegro. Milosevic can't stop it. He did not learn his lessons from Kosovo and Bosnia and is now putting the fuse at the most sensitive point: If the federal Republic of Yugoslavia really tried to turn the state of Montenegro into a Serbian province, the next war in the Balkans will be inevitable."
"Irreconcilable Concepts"
Frank Herold suggested in left-of-center Berliner Zeitung (7/6): "It is becoming clear that the ideas of the international community and those of the Albanians for the future of Kosovo are irreconcilable. The UN mission has the order to view Kosovo as part of Serbia, in which different ethnic groups find a home. The Albanians want not only complete independence from Serbia, but a Kosovo without Serbs. This basic conflict cannot be solved with the help of donors' conferences. Officially, the UN will not give up its concept for the re-creation of a multi-ethnic community. But in reality things will go the way they did in Bosnia: Strictly segregated mono-ethnic settlements are coming into existence with separate police and administration. And above all of this stretches a virtual government, held together by a UN administrator with subtle force for an indefinite time."
"Road To Democracy In Serbia Will Be Long, Rocky"
Right-of-center Ruhr Nachrichten of Dortmund said (6/30): "Only if the opposition groups together pursue as a common goal the establishment of democracy in Serbia and agree on the path to the 'dictatorship of the law,' as Foreign Minister Fischer said, will Serbia be able to succeed in ousting the dictator and bringing about a change from the inside. For the democratization process, it will be indispensable to improve the living conditions in southeastern Europe. In order to achieve this goal, the states and organizations which concluded the Stability Pact for the Balkans must continue to offer assistance. And this assistance must continue for years to come since the path to the rule of law and democracy, and thus to peace, will be long and rocky."
ITALY: "Montenegro's Cautious Moves"
A report from Belgrade in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica read (7/8): "Firm statements, but cautious moves: The Montenegrin democratic government seems determined not to fall into the provocation orchestrated by Belgrade.... President Milosevic's move arrived like a bolt from the blue for the Montenegrin leaders. The first reaction, however, albeit firm, was characterized by caution."
"New Split In Balkans"
Centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera held (7/8): "A new split is emerging in the Balkans.... Slobodan Milosevic should have figured that the constitutional changes would not be painless. The direct election of the president...clearly puts Montenegro in a minority."
"The Situation May Explode"
Ingrid Badurina wrote from Zagreb in centrist, influential La Stampa (7/7): "Montenegrin leaders believe that Milosevic is trying to become president-for-life. The Podgorica government has called an extraordinary meeting of the Montenegrin Parliament in order to deal with the new developments.... The situation may explode. Two days ago, the chiefs of staff of the Yugoslav army accused the Montenegrin president of separatism and violation of the constitution to the damage of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia."
"Milosevic's Newest 'Coup De Theatre'"
Leading, business-oriented Il Sole-24 Ore held (7/7): "With one of his usual coups de theatre, President Milosevic has changed the cards on the table while the game was still in play.... During his 11 years in power, he has lost four wars, has had to face major waves of internal protest, has collected a long series of diplomatic failures until the NATO bombings last year and the almost total isolation of his country, and has seen many of his most loyal collaborators fall to the attacks of mysterious assailants. Notwithstanding all of the above, President Milosevic is still in the saddle."
"Nothing New In Belgrade"
Massimo Nava held in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (7/7): "There is nothing new in Belgrade, apart from another confirmation of how illusory are the alternative hypotheses mentioned by the media over the last few months: a violent overthrow, the growth of the opposition, a soft way out for Milosevic, secret negotiations for a golden exile in exchange for immunity. Milosevic's response to chaos, terrorism, secessionist threats from Montenegro, internal and external enemies was the simplest, the most formally 'correct,' the smartest, and the most in line with the eternal formula to retain power: virtual democracy and a substantial regime, the use of 'rules' to his own advantage, and the adaptation of the institutions to the circumstances.... The fact of the matter is that Slobo is preparing to postpone the day of reckoning for almost a decade.... Everything sounds like a mocking response to Western alchemies and hopes. Over the last few months, Milosevic has never felt abandoned by traditionally allied friends such as Russia and China, which are generous with aid and collaboration. And he has perceived some disagreement among Western nations."
"Milosevic Launching New Offensive--In Constitutional And Military Fields"
Leading, rightist opposition Il Giornale observed (7/6): "Here we are again. Milosevic seriously risks losing power and he reacts in the usual way, the only way he knows: by launching an all-out attack. His new offensive will be launched in two fields: the constitutional field, with the goal of having himself elected president-for-life (at least according to his enemies); and the military field, with rebel Montenegro being the target this time. According to parliamentary sources in Belgrade, the initiative proposed by a group of parliamentarians close to Milosevic and which will be discussed today...has only one objective: to allow the boss of Belgrade to retain power for as long as possible."
"Latest Repression Attempt"
A report in pro-DS (leading government party) L'Unita said (6/29): "The anti-terrorism bill that the Serbian parliament is ready to approve tomorrow will be the latest means of repression and a powerful means of persuasion in the hands of Milosevic.
"It calls for very severe punishment for anybody who commits, supports or approves actions against the constitutional order or Yugoslavia's territorial integrity: nothing positive in a country where even a sentence written on a wall is considered equal to an attack on the security of the state.... Local analysts and diplomats, however, do not expect mass arrests beginning next Monday, when the new law should become effective. It is most likely that Milosevic will keep it on 'stand by,' ready in his hands for every circumstance, without having to resort to shock measures such as a state of emergency. The goal is to achieve an electoral victory in the fall.... Milosevic's survival is at stake. And even if the United States lets it be understood that there may be the possibility of negotiations on a soft way out for Milosevic, he is not the type to limit himself to playing at a single table."
"Problems Still There In The Balkans"
An analysis by Fabio Luppino in pro-DS (leading government party) L'Unita held (6/26): "Problems are still there and even continue to grow, given the overall stalemate regarding political initiatives in the area.... In Kosovo, the role of the KFOR-UN forces continues to be ambiguous amid the diffidence of the Serbs and Albanian requests to be given a free hand.... Only one man seems to be totally confined to, charmed by and linked to the role he has built for himself ten years ago: Slobodan Milosevic. He, for sure, will not ask for pardon. He has provoked wars all over the former Yugoslavia, losing one after the other. Like a new Hitler, he looks to the ruins with admiration, imagining that a new, final conflict may bring him some comfort in the end."
"U.S. Campaign To Oust Belgrade From UN"
A report from New York in pro-DS (leading government party) L'Unita said (6/25): "The United States has started a campaign aimed at ousting from the United Nations the Belgrade representative who, for the time being, according to the Washington Post, it (the United States) does not believe to represent any nation whatsoever. According to the newspaper, Ambassador Holbrooke presented the U.S. request at the end of a UN Security Council meeting in which it was decided to exclude the Belgrade envoy from a meeting on the Balkans by the Council itself." The report noted that the Russian Ambassador and the Chinese Deputy Ambassador left the meeting as a gesture of protest.
"Violent Russia, U.S. On Ousting Yugoslavia From UN"
Centrist, influential La Stampa noted (6/25): "The debate at the United Nations has provoked a violent dispute between the United States and Russia. Ambassador Holbrooke launched an initiative aimed at excluding from the discussion--and from the United Nations--the former Yugoslavia, in the person of Ambassador Jovanovic, as a representative of the Milosevic regime."
RUSSIA: "Serbs, Albanians Want UN Resolution On Kosovo Changed"
Konstantin Chugunov filed from Sarajevo for official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (6/27): "Ironically, both the Serbs and Albanians, agreeing on one thing alone, blame the current security problems on the international forces. But while the Serbs see the solution in bringing back the Yugoslav military (as, incidentally, envisioned by the UN resolution), the Albanians insist that they can manage using their own 'power structures.' Political experts attribute the tension to the UNSC's planning to review the results of implementation of resolution 1244 shortly, and to take additional measures to stabilize the situation in the province. Both the Serbs and Albanians want the resolution changed. Its key provisions remain unfulfilled. The Albanians' fault is less than thought by the West. NATO is the chief culprit.
"It has made possible the outrages the Albanians are committing these days. NATO's primary concern is for its strategic goals. All else, including 'ethnic cleansing,' 'democratization,' and 'fighting the Milosevic regime,' is secondary to it. The Alliance is out to impose its will on a sovereign state. Its action is without precedent and, therefore, very dangerous to the countries that have strained relations with it."
"Montenegro: Divorce"
Reformist Izvestiya (6/27) ran this by Maksim Yusin: "Montenegro's Foreign Minister Branko Lukic has stated that Belgrade can no longer represent his republic in the United Nations. The minister's declaration is a blow to Moscow, as well as to Belgrade. Russian diplomacy is the chief lobbyist of the Yugoslav leadership in the UN Security Council, ready even to confront the West over Slobodan Milosevic. Sergei Lavrov's walking out of the UNSC's conference room the other day is one example. Aside from the Chinese envoy, nobody supported him. Russia is in a minority, which became clear after even the Montenegrins joined the Americans, French, Germans and Croats in refusing to have anything to do with Milosevic."
BULGARIA: "Milosevic: The Necessary Demon"
Top-circulation Trud opined (7/7): "For 11 years now, the Yugoslav president has been demonstrating his survival skills.... He is about to make Montenegro either not take part in the parliamentary elections or divorce Belgrade immediately. This may ignite the Balkans once again.... However, a step like this is good for the West. Recently, Washington began to step back from peacekeeping operations in Kosovo. But if a new fire breaks out in the Balkans, it must be again extinguished by the Potomac area peacekeepers--which will justify the enormous funds allocated for the troops. "
"Serbia Is More Important Than the Survival Of Milosevic And Company"
Largest-circulation Trud (6/27) printed this piece by former Bulgarian President Zhelyo Zhelev: "The Yugoslav opposition must first unite and in the name of Serbia's democratic future its leaders must overcome their personal differences. Secondly, the opposition should guarantee Milosevic's family safety, i.e. a guarantee that they won't be dealt with like Nicolae and Elena Causeascu and that they won't even be tried by The Hague war crimes tribunal.... It is a good sign that this compromise, which in this case is the most sensitive one, has found supporters at the highest levels of power in Russia and the United States. It will be even better if this becomes the Serb opposition's official position, supported by the United States, Russia and the EU. This is the needed compromise because Milosevic's disappearance doesn't mean that his regime will disappear as well. Hundreds of thousands of people, connected with his crimes will continue to live in Yugoslavia.... Someone will have to govern Serbia effectively in these conditions. And who else but the united Serbian opposition. It won't be Clinton, Putin or Carla del Ponte."
CZECH REPUBLIC: "West's Wrong Approach"
Martin Ehl commented in right-of-center Mlada Fronta Dnes (7/10): "It is not about an effort to create some 'Albanian issue,' but about the call for a unified effort by the international community toward the region that has already suffered enough for the games of superpowers with maps in this and the last century. And when gentlemen Kouchner and Dienstbier solve the Kosovo problem only on the basis of a Pristina view, then they commit the same mistake that the Western policy made in the beginning of the 1990s: It paid attention only to Belgrade, and at the same time the biggest explosion happened in Sarajevo--even though the original cause was Belgrade. The Balkans would finally deserve a complex approach and analysis.
"And the situation of Albanians separated into three countries is the most pressing one."
GREECE: "The New Crisis"
Independent, influential Kathimerini commented (7/8): "The new crisis in relations between Belgrade and Montenegro would constitute a relatively insignificant domestic Yugoslav affair were it not tangled with the West's effort to overthrow President Milosevic. It is common knowledge that the United States and NATO have done everything to encourage the government of Montenegro to question its ties with Serbia, deeming that in this way they may manage to destabilize the regime.... This dangerous game inevitably...destabilizes the Balkan peninsula.... Athens has no room for decisive intervention, but should use any available leverage to make clear to both Washington and its European partners that lifting sanctions is the only way to facilitate democratic developments in Serbia. As long as the Serb population is in isolation, they will support the regime, not because they like it, but as a token of their opposition to foreign intervention."
HUNGARY: "The Sword Of Damocles"
Leading Nepszabadsag commented (7/12): "The paradox is that Montenegro, despite its pro-Balkan policy, is 'de jure' a part of Yugoslavia, therefore, with some exception, the international sanctions apply to it. The promised international assistance after the Kosovo war keeps stalling. Neither the IMF nor the World Bank issues loans to the tiny Balkan republic on grounds that it is not a sovereign state. To go around the blockade, the United States has offered state guarantees to U.S. private creditors, but because of the tense political situation in the Balkans, American entrepreneurs are not breaking their legs to enter into business in the region."
"Everything For Milosevic"
Ferenc Szabo wrote in independent Nepszava (7/8): "The newest of the Balkan type, or rather that of the Milosevic type, rules of game is putting the opposition to another big test: They should find somebody who symbolizes the unity of the opposition. But such a character has not appeared yet in the arena of the political circus. There is only the circus. Which is going to be even bigger."
CHINA: "Freedom Of Press, Freedom To Lie?"
Wang Hao wrote in the official, English-language China Daily (6/29): "During the Kosovo crisis last year, NATO set the worst precedent in the history of journalism by silencing different voices with their most advanced weapons. As Western powers tore off their disguises as the firemen who came to end the crisis in Kosovo and became arsonists instead, the mainstream Western media played a role in fanning ethnic hatred with biased and unprofessional reporting. As the bombing broke out, NATO's manipulation and control of media could be seen more obviously. To justify NATO bombings, its spokesmen would not hesitate to spread rumors to the media. We have seen an obvious manipulation of public opinion by the war machines while some Western media have been used as a loudspeaker for lies."
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