DATE=7/20/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=A SERBIAN SHADOW GOVERNMENT?
NUMBER=5-46692
BYLINE=PAMELA TAYLOR
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: One of President Clinton's goals during his
last six months at the White House is to see Slobodan
Milosevic removed as president of Yugoslavia. U-S
officials are examining several scenarios to make that
happen, including one floated last month to grant Mr.
Milosevic immunity from prosecution for war crimes if
he gives up power and goes into exile. But that idea
has been replaced with another that is more attractive
to U-S policy makers as well as many inside Serbia.
V-O-A's Pamela Taylor has more in this background
report:
TEXT: The latest idea floating around the State
Department to get Slobodan Milosevic out of office
would involve opposition groups establishing their own
centers of power within existing Yugoslav state
institutions. The man considered the architect of the
shadow government proposal is Purdue University
Professor Charles Ingrao. Professor Ingrao, who has
been acting as liaison between Serbian opposition
groups and Western diplomats, says there are really
only two options currently available to the Serbian
people:
/// INGRAO ACT ONE ///
They either have to engage in force or I would
suggest that the Yugoslav opposition come
together and forge a parallel government,
ignoring many of these politicians who have
discredited themselves. People who still have
credibility, whose hands are not sullied by
doing deals with Milosevic, to come together and
decide they no longer recognize the Milosevic
government, form their own government and appeal
to the international community to recognize and
support them.
/// END ACT ///
But before granting such support, U-S officials are
waiting to see whether elections go forward in Serbia
this year and if so, how well opposition candidates
do. Professor Ingrao says international support will
come only after Serbs take matters into their own
hands:
/// INGRAO ACT TWO ///
There is the potential for European countries
and the United States to support such a
provision, such as a parallel regime made up of
a truly united opposition. But the problem is
this kind of initiative has to come from within
Serbia itself.
/// END ACT ///
One of the leading spokesmen for Serbs in the
diaspora, American businessman Michael Djordjevic came
to Washington this week to discuss the proposal with
officials at the State Department and in Congress. He
agrees with Professor Ingrao that the plan must not be
generated by outsiders:
/// DJORDJEVIC ACT ///
That government has to be homegrown; it cannot
be imposed from the outside. The Serbian
Orthodox Church in July of last year called for
the formation of a government of national
salvation. This is essentially what we were
recommending in 1997. If we would create a
group of people that would be accepted by
consensus that they are the people, the best and
brightest in Serbia at this moment, out of that
would emerge a leader.
/// END ACT ///
Other Balkan analysts question whether such a leader
or leaders will in fact emerge in what they say is the
demoralized atmosphere of today's Serbia. But there
is widespread agreement that a shadow government
cannot be imposed from the outside.
Yugoslavia remains important to Washington because of
the possibility the United States could be drawn into
yet another Balkan conflict. European officials are
concerned the entire Balkan region will remain
unstable as long as Slobodan Milosevic is in power.
But without a move to replace him, Mr. Milosevic could
control Yugoslavia for a long time. Recently, he
changed the federal constitution so he can remain in
power for at least one more term. Many experts inside
Serbia now speculate he will change current election
laws to insure his re-election. (Signed)
NEB/PAM/JP
20-Jul-2000 15:33 PM LOC (20-Jul-2000 1933 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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