DATE=6/18/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=ERITREA/ETHIOPIA PEACE PLAN
NUMBER=5-46516
BYLINE=CAROL PINEAU
DATELINE=ASMARA, ERITREA
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Ethiopia and Eritrea have signed a peace deal
to end a bitter two-year border dispute in the Horn of
Africa. But many are asking whether the agreement
will really bring peace. From the Eritrean capital,
Asmara, Carol Pineau reports Eritrean reaction.
TEXT: The ink is dry and a cease-fire is in effect.
Officials from both countries, as well as the
mediators, say publicly that the agreement is
positive.
In Eritrea, spokesman for the president, Yemane
Ghebremeskel, says the agreement's strength is that it
covers many points.
/// YEMANE ACT ///
Now that we have an agreement on a cease-fire,
which is not limited to just a cease-fire but
which includes other component, like
redeployment of Ethiopian troops, deployment of
a U-N peacekeeping force, and provisions on
international guarantees, I think this is a very
solid agreement. If there is political will on
both sides, then there are reasons for optimism.
/// END YEMANE ACT ///
But privately, many officials say the agreement leaves
holes.
The peace plan, brokered by the Organization of
African Unity with the United States, United Nations,
and European Union acting as partners, allows for the
deployment of a peacekeeping force along a temporary
security zone. That zone is on Eritrean land occupied
by Ethiopian troops.
Ethiopia says it will not move its troops to the
required pre-conflict positions until the arrival of a
peacekeeping force.
Military experts say that may take two to three-
months, or longer, due to several procedural issues.
During that time, there would be no independent
verification of the situation.
While the agreement calls for punitive measures should
either side break the cease-fire, without an
independent monitoring force there would be no way to
know which side fired first.
The Eritrean spokesman agrees that the biggest risk
period is now.
/// YEMANE 2ND ACT ///
In the absence of a U-N peacekeeping mission
that would monitor the strict compliance of both
sides to the agreement, and if one side does not
have the political will, obviously there is the
possibility for the resumption of hostilities.
/// END YEMANE ACT ///
But he adds that if they can move through that period,
there is a real chance for peace.
/// YEMANE 3RD ACT ///
Once you have a cease-fire in place, once you
have a U-N peacekeeping mission in place, I
think it will be extremely difficult for either
party to wreck the whole process. I think the
problem is whether this agreement on a cease-
fire will hold on the ground until a
peacekeeping mission is deployed. Otherwise, we
are on an irreversible process.
/// END YEMANE ACT ///
But there are other risks along the way, as two of
Africa's largest armies face each other in an
atmosphere of absolute distrust.
Ethiopia says it must remain in the more strategic
positions in Eritrea in order to prevent Eritrea from
being able to attack Ethiopian positions.
Eritrea says Ethiopian troops staying on Eritrean land
will mean further looting and destruction of Eritrean
property. During Ethiopia's brief, two-week
occupation of Barentu, a town in southwestern Eritrea,
the entire town was looted. Throughout the previously
occupied region, almost every economic site was
destroyed - factories and houses were burned and grain
reserves contaminated.
While waiting for peacekeepers to arrive, Eritrea's
humanitarian crisis is almost certain to deteriorate.
The country's 750-thousand war displaced cannot go
home as long as Ethiopian troops are occupying their
land.
By the time a peacekeeping force is deployed, it will
be too late for those people - most of them farmers -
to get seed in the ground this planting season.
Eritrea's breadbasket - the fertile border region - is
expected to have no produce to offer this year.
But the Eritrean spokesman says that despite the
problems, he still sees peace in the future.
/// YEMANE 4TH ACT ///
Eritrea and Ethiopia, whether they like it or
not, they are neighbors. Emotions might be high
now, and perhaps people are pessimistic now, but
the future lies in cooperation, in working out a
suitable formula of co-existence.
/// END YEMANE ACT ///
Ethiopia and Eritrea were considered the stars of the
African Renaissance, but many Eritreans say the war,
which cost both nations hundreds-of-millions of
dollars and tens-of-thousands of lives, has resulted
in no winners - only losers. (SIGNED)
NEB/CP/ALW/RAE
18-Jun-2000 14:32 PM EDT (18-Jun-2000 1832 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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