14 June 2000
Mugabe May Be Destined to Become "Africa's Ceausescu"
(Former Asst. Sec. of State Crocker tells Congress) (720) By Charles W. Corey Washington File Staff Writer Washington -- "Something has cracked, something has gone wrong, something has gone badly off the tracks" in Zimbabwe, says Chester Crocker, a former State Department expert who warned on June 13 that the sub-Saharan African nation may become the continent's "Romania" and that its President Robert Mugabe may become "Africa's Ceausescu" -- a dictator deposed by his own people. In testimony before the Subcommittee on Africa in the U.S. House of Representatives, a former assistant secretary of state for African affairs (1981-89), said that "a pervasive atmosphere of fear and intimidation" exists in Zimbabwe as it prepares for "one of the most important elections [June 24-25] in modern African history." Crocker, presently the James Schlesinger professor of strategic studies at Georgetown University, recalled that such severe repression and "dramatic" conditions as now prevail in Zimbabwe did not always exist there. Earlier policies "of pragmatism and reconciliation and regional cooperation have been replaced by the politics of greedy adventurism in the region, most notably in the Congo, and [by] the politics of envy and racial scapegoating at home," he said. The real problems in Zimbabwe, "no matter what the government officials are saying" now, Crocker stressed, "are of their own making." Crocker also made plain that today's atmosphere of intimidation "is not about land ownership, not about colonial legacies, not about the role of white farmers. It is about power ... and that is the long and the short of it." And the "primary challenge" to the government's attempt to retain its power, he said, is coming from black Zimbabwean opposition. Everything else, Crocker insisted, "is a pure cover story, the playing of racial cards by an embattled regime." Crocker was called to Capitol Hill along with other present and past expert witnesses for a hearing entitled "Zimbabwe: Democracy on the Line." What is most sad about Zimbabwe today, Crocker said, is that "this is not the way Robert Mugabe started out his political career. It is not the way he was for much of the past 20 years. He has made contributions to his country's history and to the region." It is very sad, he said, because Zimbabwe plays a key role in the entire southern Africa region. Just how important a role it plays may be seen, he said, by the fact that the South African currency has lost 10-15 percent of its value in the past few months "just because of Zimbabwe. It is as simple as that." Regarding U.S. policy toward Zimbabwe, Crocker said: "My impression is we are wringing our hands. We are hoping the South Africans will rescue the situation. We are doing what we can to strengthen the democratic process and I applaud everything that we are doing as a government. ... Congress and NGOs ... are playing the lead role -- to try to make this somehow as democratic an election as can be. "But," he continued, "we are not doing a whole lot beyond that to shape events -- either by ourselves or with our partners in Africa and Europe." The U.S. government, he stressed, however, "must recognize that we are only one country and that we should be under careful, practical, and detailed consultation with the South Africans, Zambians, Mozambicans, and, above all, the British, who know this place and have more influence than we do." In his opinion, Crocker said, "things have deteriorated badly" in Zimbabwe, and he warned that "there are not really a lot of attractive options left before us." While cautioning lawmakers not to "prejudge" the outcome of the upcoming election, he said: "I would bet this election ... is going to be substantially robbed. I am afraid that is the case, but wish it weren't" so. Crocker said if Zimbabwe continues on its present path it may be destined to become "Africa's Romania, and ... Mugabe is destined to become Africa's [Nicolae] Ceausescu." He referred to the longtime dictator who led his nation to bankruptcy and who subsequently was removed by "the people of Romania." (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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