DATE=6/8/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=WARNINGS OF WAR IN CENTRAL ASIA
NUMBER=5-46466
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: As the Afghanistan war drags on, analysts say
there is a danger of it spreading in the region --
especially in view of Russia's recent threat of air
strikes against the Taleban. V-O-A's Ed Warner has
this report on the conflict, based on interviews
conducted by (Spozhmai Maiwandi, chief of) V-O-A's
Pashto service.
TEXT: The Taleban control most of Afghanistan, but
they are feared well beyond their borders. Despite
their denials, they are accused of training and
inspiring other Islamist radicals.
Zalmay Khalilzad of the (American) research
organization RAND says this especially worries Moscow,
as it fights an inconclusive war in Chechnya:
/// KHALILZAD ACT ///
Russia does feel threatened by the situation in
Chechnya and feels that the Taleban government,
which has expressed its sympathy for the
Chechens, may be supportive of the Chechens.
Afghanistan may become a kind of sanctuary for
the Chechen fighters - a place where they can
get training and perhaps arms and make their way
back to Chechnya.
/// END ACT ///
Moscow has threatened air strikes against the Taleban,
but this has met with opposition in Russia and the
region. A commander of Russian forces in Tajikistan
says he has the border with Afghanistan under control.
An air assault might lead to more attacks by the
Taleban.
Brenda Shaffer of the Belfer Center at Harvard
University says the war could quickly spread with
Russian provocation:
/// SHAFFER ACT ///
Taleban leaders have said in response to the
Russian threat that if any of the Central Asian
states are used to launch any planes or assist
in any way, they will attack these states. So
you can see that the venue for the struggle
between Afghanistan and Russia could take place
in Central Asia, and this could be extremely
destabilizing for this region.
/// END ACT ///
Do the Russians intend to strike Afghanistan, as they
have threatened? Charles Fairbanks of the Central
Asia-Caucasus Institute in Washington says he does not
know what that would accomplish:
/// FAIRBANKS ACT ///
The United States tried limited action with
cruise missiles against [suspected terrorist
leader] Osama bin Laden, and it did not really
achieve anything. There are not a lot of big
infrastructure targets in Afghanistan any more
that they could hit, and I think it would be
quite unpopular in Central Asia, even though
they [leaders of Afghanistan's neighbor states]
are afraid of Taleban, too.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Fairbanks says Russia is more likely to increase
its aid to Afghanistan's "northern alliance" - forces
fighting the Taleban. They currently get more help
from Iran than Russia.
Mr. Khalilzad says Moscow may not actually want to
defeat the Taleban, because then it could no longer
use the threat of terrorism to increase its presence
in Central Asia. Moscow may prefer regional turmoil
to continue for its own strategic reasons.
A point worth keeping in mind, says Harvard's Brenda
Shaffer. Russia claims it is opposing Islamic
fundamentalism in Chechnya, Afghanistan and elsewhere.
The Western press, she adds, tends to go along with
this:
/// SHAFFER ACT ///
Almost every article will describe Islamic
fundamentalists battling Russian soldiers. We do
not call them Russian Orthodox fighters. In the
case of Chechnya, this is mainly a nationalist
struggle, an independence struggle, and Islam is
an element but is not the predominant element.
How come whenever we look at Muslims, we tend to
infer that their primary collective identity is
Islam, when for many of these groups that is not
the case?
/// END ACT ///
Brenda Schaffer says armed Islamists do pose a threat
in Central Asia, but that threat should not be
exaggerated to justify a war. (Signed)
NEB/EW/PW/WTW
08-Jun-2000 18:57 PM EDT (08-Jun-2000 2257 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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