DATE=5/30/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SOUTH LEBANON
NUMBER=5-46405
BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB
DATELINE=BEIRUT
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: It has been one week since Israel withdrew its
troops from south Lebanon, ending a 22-year
occupation. U-N special envoy Terje Roed-Larsen is
shuttling between the capitals of Lebanon, Israel and
Syria, amid concerns over security in area. The sudden
Israeli withdrawal, which took less than 48 hours and
came six weeks ahead of schedule, has created
uncertainties. Middle East Correspondent Scott Bobb in
Beirut examines the repercussions in this background
report.
TEXT: Although Israel announced the withdrawal months
ago, the event created a security void in south
Lebanon. Many local residents are calling for the
Lebanese government to send in the army to stabilize
the situation.
But the Lebanese government says it will not send in
troops until the United Nations verifies Israel has
completely left the zone. U-N spokesman, Timor Guxel,
says this is a long-standing policy.
/// GUXEL ACT ///
The Lebanese position has been very consistent
to us, in that we are not going to send the army
until we have a comprehensive peace accord with
Israel because we don't our army to be seen or
be treated as guarding the Israeli border.
/// END ACT ///
U-N officials say the job of certifying the Israeli
withdrawal and demarcating the border is almost done.
However, there is a dispute over several villages in
the area called Shabaa Farms and Lebanon is also
demanding the release of all Lebanese prisoners in
Israel. As a result, it may be some time before
Lebanon says its dispute with Israel is over.
A political science professor at the American
University of Beirut, Nizar Hamzeh, says the Lebanese
government may not want peace with Israel yet because
it fears a separate peace would drive a wedge between
it and Syria, its influential neighbor whose peace
negotiations with Israel are currently stalled.
/// 1st HAMZEH ACT ///
Sending the army seems to mean effectively
ending the resistance, also (it) effectively
means disassociating the Lebanese track from the
Syrian track.
/// END ACT. ///
In addition, 30 thousand Syrian troops have been
deployed in Lebanon for decades. With the departure of
the Israeli troops, some Lebanese are calling for the
withdrawal of the Syrian troops as well.
/// OPT. /// One of the strongest critics of the
Syrian presence is former vice-prime minister and
veteran politician Albert Moukheiber. The 88 year-old
Mr. Moukheiber says Lebanon will only recover its
independence and territorial integrity if Syria
leaves.
/// MOUKHEIBER ACT, IN FRENCH, fades /// /// OPT ACT
///
Mr. Moukheiber says Lebanese authority is in Damascus
and Lebanese foreign policy is formulated in Damascus.
He says it is the Syrian government that speaks for
Lebanon and predicts there could be violent times if
Syria does not leave. /// END OPT ///
Other Lebanese disagree, saying debate over the
withdrawal of Syria's troops will divide Lebanon and
this is not in the interests of the country at this
time.
Still others suggest privately that continuing
instability in Lebanon might be in the interests of
the Syrian government, because it would justify
maintaining the Syrian presence here. Professor Hamzeh
disagrees.
/// 2nd HAMZEH ACT ///
I don't think it is in the interests of Syria to
keep Lebanon unstable because this would have
implications and ramifications on Syria itself.
One, on the contrary, could argue the more
trouble in Lebanon, the more trouble the
situation in the region in general.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT /// Professor Hamzeh says the parties in the
region have achieved what he calls a new balance of
terror. That is anti-Israeli elements are now closer
than ever to Israeli land and installations, yet
Israeli forces can still inflict heavy punishment for
any attacks on its territory.
/// 3rd HAMZEH ACT ///
The longer it drags, the more complex the
situation that all parties with the status quo
need to exercise control on whatever they have
in this balance of terror.
/// END ACT/// /// END OPT ///
Most analysts say these issues will only be resolved
when Syria and Israel conclude a peace agreement. Many
say such an agreement is tantalizingly close. But they
note a major partner in the process, the United
States, is entering a period of transition due to
presidential elections later this year. As a result,
they believe peace must be achieved in a few months,
or else the process is likely to remain stalled until
at least next year, when the new U-S president takes
office. (Signed)
NEB/SB/GE/KBK
30-May-2000 15:04 PM EDT (30-May-2000 1904 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
