DATE=5/3/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=AIDS SECURITY THREAT / MILITARY
NUMBER=5-46253
BYLINE=JOE DE CAPUA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The United States has declared AIDS a threat
to national security, warning it has the potential to
ignite ethnic conflicts abroad and could result in the
collapse of some governments. V-O-A's Joe De Capua
spoke with several analysts about the effect AIDS is
having on security in many countries.
TEXT: Developing countries face a greater risk of
instability from AIDS, according to Paul Beaver, an
analyst with Jane's Defense Weekly. He says that
instability increases the chances of foreign
intervention.
/// 1ST BEAVER ACT ///
I think there's a real risk that there's such an
epidemic of AIDS that it will cause major
instability - economic - and therefore, leading
to tension that could create wars. And what
happens when you have this situation, of course,
is you then have countries in the West -
particularly in Europe or North America, the
United States - would have to get involved and
try and do something about it.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Beaver says when many soldiers are infected with
H-I-V, the virus that causes AIDS, the disease has
many new opportunities to expand.
/// 2ND BEAVER ACT ///
The concern I think I would have is the fact
that if you do have H-I-V positive soldiers -
when they go on campaign, when they go on
exercise, whenever they go anywhere - they may
well infect other people. There's always a risk
of passing it on to a civilian community. The
other thing I think I'm concerned about is that
if they actually go to war. Soldiers,
particularly in the ill disciplined armies of
the world - in developing nations - are likely
to spread the disease. We saw that happening in
West Africa. We've seen that happening in the
war in the Congo because they rape and pillage,
as armies have done traditionally.
/// END ACT ///
South Africa is one developing country where the AIDS
epidemic has not only a firm hold but an expanding
grasp on the population. Over four million people are
believed infected with H-I-V, with about 15-hundred
new infections daily.
Martin Schonteich (SHERN-tyke) - a senior researcher
at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa
- agrees with the Clinton Administration that AIDS
poses a security threat. He says in his country the
evidence can be found among pregnant women being
treated at prenatal clinics.
/// 1ST SCHONTEICH ///
About one quarter of these women are H-I-V
positive, which if translated in the general
population would have an infection rate of H-I-V
between 15 and 20 percent. And the tendency at
the moment is still a rising one. One could
argue that within the next 10 years six million
South Africans will die because of H-I-V /
AIDS. Six million out of a population of just
over 40 million. And this quite clearly will
have a major impact on the security of the
society in South Africa.
/// END ACT ///
He says the AIDS epidemic will create a society
consisting of the young and old - and that may affect
security. He says most people who are infected with
H-I-V in South Africa are between 15 and 18 years old
- and they are not expected to reach middle age.
/// 2ND SCHONTEICH ///
The number of middle age people is going to drop
substantially over the next 10 to 15 years
because of H-I-V / AIDS in South Africa. So,
the result will be is that the proportion of
teenagers and young adults, people in their
early 20's, that proportion of the population
will actually increase in relation to the rest.
And it's a fact throughout the world, but also
in South Africa, that most crime is committed by
teenagers and young adults.
/// END ACT ///
South Africa already has a high crime rate that some
fear could hurt investment and tourism.
As for the Clinton Administration's concern that AIDS
could destabilize some foreign governments, Mr.
Schonteich says he doubts that will happen in South
Africa. But the Institute for Security Studies
researcher says it could happen in other developing
countries. He says as young people become despondent
over the epidemic, they may lend support to populist
causes leading to violent uprisings against ruling
parties.
A recent U-S national intelligence study said AIDS
will further impoverish the poor and often the middle
class - and produce huge numbers of orphans unable to
cope and vulnerable to exploitation and
radicalization.
Paul Beaver of Jane's Defense Weekly says he believes
AIDS has the potential of triggering ethnic wars.
/// 3rd BEAVER ACT ///
I think if you look at the destabilization,
which could result from the economy being
affected because there are not enough people in
the workplace. Or because somebody would look
upon it as being a factor that you would say
that army has got 50 percent H-I-V positive
soldiers and they're not going to be very
effective. Let's go invade. There are so many
territorial disputes around the world I wouldn't
be at all surprised.
/// END ACT ///
The Clinton Administration set up an inter-agency
working group in February to consider the security
threat of AIDS. The group's recommendations are
expected within the coming weeks. (Signed)
NEB/JDC/KL
03-May-2000 11:33 AM EDT (03-May-2000 1533 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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