DATE=5/2/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=EMBATTLED ARMENIA
NUMBER=5-46248
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: In Armenia's ongoing power struggle, President
Robert Kocharian has dismissed two of his major
opponents, the prime minister and the defense
minister. On a trip to Moscow, they had just agreed to
accept a Russian army division that is scheduled to
withdraw from neighboring Georgia. This would add to
the some 10-thousand Russian troops already in Armenia
and heighten tensions between a pro-Moscow faction and
one that leans westward. V-O-A's Ed Warner in
Washington examines the internal disputes that keep
Armenia in turmoil.
TEXT: On October 27 last year, five gunmen burst into
the Armenian parliament and started shooting. Before
they were finished, the prime minister, the parliament
chairman and six other top officials lay dead. The
assassins shouted that their "patriotic deed was a
sacrifice for the nation."
It has not helped the nation. With those murders,
Armenia started unraveling, said its foreign minister,
Vartan Oskanian, in a recent speech at the private
Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington:
/// FIRST OSKANIAN ACT ///
The events of October 27th last year created
tremendous problems for Armenia domestically,
and we are still struggling to achieve the
unprecedented stability that we had. In any
other country probably, that kind of an event
would have thrown the country into chaos and
even civil war. Armenia successfully
circumvented that.
/// END ACT ///
But Mr. Oskanian says the killings seriously weakened
President Robert Kocharian and divided the government.
Armenia is awash in intrigue.
Two camps are contending for power, says Vladimir
Socor, senior analyst of the Jamestown Foundation,
which closely follows events in the Caucasus.
One consists of the defense ministry and its allies in
parliament who seek closer ties to Russia:
/// FIRST SOCOR ACT ///
That side in the Armenian power struggle is
unilaterally relying on Moscow, whereas [Mr.]
Kocharian and his ally, Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian, are trying to strike a more balanced
course. It is [Mr.] Kocharian and [Mr.] Oskanian
who made considerable progress last year in
direct unmediated bilateral negotiations with
Azerbaijan, bypassing the ineffective mechanism
of the O-S-C-E [Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe]. But the outbreak of the
struggle in Armenia has paralyzed that
negotiation.
/// END ACT ///
Solving the territorial dispute with Azerbaijan over
Nagorno-Karabakh is the key to regional peace and
stability, says Mr. Socor. But President Kocharian is
under too much political pressure to try to reach a
compromise with Azerbaijan.
Even so, Mr. Socor thinks the president, while lacking
strong constitutional powers, is making a comeback.
/// SECOND SOCOR ACT ///
[Mr.] Kocharian does not command military power
in any effective sense. Most of the guns are in
the hands of his opponents. But [Mr.] Kocharian
is proving adept at political maneuvering, and
in the last few weeks, he has scored a number of
political gains against his opponents, which has
given him a psychological advantage.
/// END ACT ///
With a sinking economy, Armenia badly needs direct
foreign investment. Mr. Socor says the United States
is encouraging privatization of industries that might
otherwise wind up in Russian hands. It is also urging
a reluctant Armenian military to engage in joint
exercises under the Partnership for Peace program.
In his Washington speech, Foreign Minister Oskanian
said Armenia must strike a balance among the greater
powers. It is too small and isolated to risk
antagonizing any of them.
/// SECOND OSKANIAN ACT ///
We cannot ignore Russia's direct and immediate
interest in the Caucasus. That would be a big
mistake. I think our neighbors are making a
mistake and unnecessarily creating a tension and
polarization in our region. We should also
recognize the United States' commercial and
other interests in the region. We must try
somehow to reconcile these interests and make
them coexist in harmony in our region.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Oskanian said during the Cold War, it was
necessary for Armenia to choose between east and west.
Now it is not. (Signed)
NEB/ew/gm
02-May-2000 16:23 PM EDT (02-May-2000 2023 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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