DATE=4/10/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=AFRICA / HORN OF SCARCITY
NUMBER=5-46103
BYLINE=JOE DE CAPUA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: New estimates say as many as 18-million people
in the Horn of Africa are at risk of starvation due to
drought. Parts of Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya and
Somalia are facing severe food shortages. V-O-A's Joe
De Capua spoke with a number of experts about the
problems facing the region.
TEXT: Nature has been stingy in parts of east Africa
-- hoarding the rainy seasons and turning farmlands to
dust. Yet it has released a torrent on regions of
southern Africa.
Heavy rains and cyclones have caused floods in
Mozambique -- the worst in about 50 years. Experts
say the floods will eventually subside and
agricultural land will become productive again. In
parts of the Horn of Africa, however, droughts have
lasted three years, so far. No water means no food --
and people are beginning to die.
Stephen Devereux - of the Institute for Development
Studies at the University of Sussex (England)- has
studied the causes and consequences of droughts.
/// 1ST DEVEREUX ACT ///
The main causes of the drought in the Horn of
Africa are low rainfall over several years. The
main consequence of this is that pasturalists
(livestock herders), in particular, are finding
it difficult to find water and grazing for their
livestock. And the drought, at the moment, in
the Horn of Africa is mainly affecting
pasturalists. So, it's cattle sheep and goats
that are being affected and, of course, the
people that depend on those for their
livelihood.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Devereux says a drought is not simply a lack of
rain.
/// 2ND DEVEREUX ACT ///
There is a difference between a meteorological
drought, which is simply a decline in rainfall
from the normal level, from an agricultural
drought. You can have a drought in the Horn of
Africa, which does not actually imply an overall
reduction in rainfall, but simply a shift in the
distribution of rainfall. So, for part of the
year, the key period of the planting season, for
example, the rains stop for a few weeks and
that's sufficient to basically destroy the
harvest.
/// END ACT ///
He says rainfall in the Horn has been an extremely low
200 to 250 millimeters per year - not enough to grow
maize, millet and other basic food crops. Mr.
Devereux says scientists are trying to determine if
the weather patterns for the region have changed for
the long term.
Michael Delaney -- director of humanitarian assistance
at Oxfam America -- recently returned from Ethiopia.
He says three years of drought have changed the
landscape.
/// 1ST DELANEY ACT ///
An area that would have been very green, lots of
pasture lands, food for cows, green, water and
trees blossoming was very stark. It was brown,
dry, the soil almost looked orange in nature.
Even the cactus in that area had wilted.
/// END ACT ///
He says people in the region are coping as best they
can.
/// 2ND DELANEY ACT ///
People are either selling tools or next year's seed
just to get some money to buy food. Or they're
migrating to different parts of the country looking
for work.
/// END ACT ///
The next harvest in the Horn of Africa is due in June
or July. But little, if any, rain is expected before
then. As a result, emergency food aid may be needed
for at least another year. For example, a U-S-A-I-D
official says Ethiopia alone will need nearly 870-
thousand metric tons of food aid.
Following the famine of 1984 and '85 - in which nearly
one million people died in Ethiopia - the United
States and United Nations set up early warning
systems. They predicted the impending famine months
before the current crisis. As a result, emergency
relief operations began before a major loss of life
occurred.
But Stephen Devereux of the Institute of Development
Studies says conflict or logistical problems can slow
the pace of relief.
/// 3RD DEVEREUX ACT ///
In the case of Ethiopia, there is a war going on
at the moment between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Now, that's mainly in the north of the country,
on the northern border of Ethiopia, where the
drought is mainly affecting the southeast. So,
there's no direct impact there, except that war
is obviously diverting resources - trucks and so
on - away from perhaps getting food aid to areas
which need it in the south.
/// END ACT ///
He says in Somalia, there have been attacks on
humanitarian aid convoys.
There is also a limited capacity to import food to the
region. Mr. Devereux says the main port in the Horn
of Africa is Djibouti, which has a capacity of
handling 120-thousand metric tons per month. That's
well below projections of the food aid needed to feed
millions of people. (Signed)
NEB/JDC/KL
10-Apr-2000 10:42 AM EDT (10-Apr-2000 1442 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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