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ISLAMIC INSURGENCY

Date Reported: Wednesday, April 05, 2000
Incident Type: SECURITY
Country: ALGIERS, ALGERIA

Incident: The US Embassy in Algiers submits the following report:

For the first time in recent years, the Islamist insurgency in Algeria has dropped significantly as compared to past reporting periods. After a sharp rise in incidents for November and December 1999, incidents are now considerably lower. The month of January began with Algerian President Boutiflika granting a general amnesty to all Islamist combatants. The results were twofold. One: an estimated 1000 combatants stepped forward to claim the offered clemency. Two: holdout elements now described as criminals have been hard pressed by the Algerian military and security services.

As a result, numerous sharp clashes between the military and these holdouts have resulted in several groups being isolated and eliminated. Insurgent casualties are at a much higher number than in past reporting periods. It is estimated that as of 4/2000, 3000 combatants have now stepped forward to claim the amnesty offer. There could still be between 1500 and 2000 belligerents still in the field, posing an armed threat to the government.

Algiers has been very quiet. While there is still a heavy police/gendarme presence in Algiers, incidents involving small arms and explosives have all but ceased. Both attacks on civilians and the number of reported casualties are also down during this reporting period.

As previously promised by the president, the military is vigorously pursuing anyone who declined the general amnesty. This amnesty has started the pendulum to swing the other way. In the past, security services were plagued by ambushes and high causalities, now the military is moving in large scale fashion and when possible, launching large unit efforts on the remaining groups of outlaws. Most of the larger clashes continue to occur to the south and east of Algiers. In past periods, serious incidents resulting in significant losses of life were occurring as close as 50 km outside of Algiers. Mass attacks on civilian targets still occur, but not at the same level as compared to this past year.

There is no doubt that the government of Algeria has the upper hand in controlling its domestic insurgency problem. Islamic groups that were once overtly hostile to the government are now voicing a return to the political process. The government is confident that they can isolate and destroy the hard core "unrepentant."

The most critical factor in this equation is that the armed insurgent movement has lost the support from the Algerian population. Attacks and incidents will continue in Algeria, but not on a scale as in previous years.

According to public media information available to post during this reporting period, approximately 913 casualties of all types can be directly attributed to the insurgency. Of these numbers, 224 are government security forces, 410 are civilian and 279 are identified with terrorist elements.

Algeria remains a critical threat environment. The US mission continues to operate at the highest state of security alertness with stringent security procedures in place. Local police support and their responsiveness to our security concerns remains excellent. Most western missions continue to maintain stringent security procedures and protective security details for diplomatic staff and facilities.