DATE=3/30/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=ISRAEL / SYRIA ANALYSIS
NUMBER=5-46048
BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB
DATELINE=CAIRO
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The parties involved in the Middle East peace
process say they remain hopeful that Israel and Syria
will reach a peace agreement soon - despite the lack
of progress during a meeting between President Clinton
and Syrian President Hafez al-Assad earlier this week.
Middle East Correspondent Scott Bobb discussed the
latest developments with analysts in the region and he
reports that although many agree there is still hope,
time is of the essence.
TEXT: Although the news media labeled the meeting in
Geneva between President Clinton and Syrian President
Hafez al-Assad a failure, many observers in the Middle
East viewed it in less negative terms.
A Lebanese political analyst in Beirut, Paul Salem,
says one should not expect too much from a single
meeting. He says the fact that the meeting took place
at all and that the two presidents addressed
substantive issues is a good sign.
/// SALEM ACT ONE ///
There is a basis for an agreement, but there are
a lot of details that still need to be worked
out and some them are quite substantive. And it
will be a considerable challenge to come up with
a full agreement by the end of May or early
June, but I still think there is a good chance.
/// END ACT ///
The negotiations between Israel and Syria resumed in
January after a four-year rupture, but they quickly
became deadlocked over what many observers say are
details.
Professor Salem says the main dispute over the two
countries' joint border has largely been overcome
because Israel has accepted the principle of the
borders prior to the 1967 war.
But he notes there is still disagreement over the
boundary along the Sea of Galilee, also called Lake
Tiberius. And he says important details remain to be
hammered out, like demilitarization, water, and the
timing and extent of normalization of relations.
Professor Salem expects efforts to continue with a
possible resumption of talks in two or three-weeks.
Arab observers say time is short because of the
Israeli government's decision to withdraw Israeli
troops from southern Lebanon by July Sixth, whether or
not there is an agreement with Syria. Professor Salem
says this maneuver is likely to worsen the security
situation rather than improve it.
/// SALEM ACT TWO ///
A unilateral withdrawal with a continued
occupation of the Golan means that a state of
war between the parties is continuing. And it
is very hard to guarantee anybody's security.
/// END ACT ///
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak is under pressure at
home to fulfill a campaign pledge to end the 22-year
occupation that has caused numerous Israeli
casualties.
Prominent Egyptian analyst and former presidential
spokesman, Tahsin Bashir, says despite the fact that a
good portion of the peace agreement has been achieved,
Israel, Syria, and Lebanon are deadlocked in a what he
calls a rising dilemma. He says Israel wants Syria to
guarantee the safety of northern Israel, but the
Lebanese government says it cannot provide this
guarantee as long as there are hundreds-of-thousands
of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.
/// BASHIR ACT ///
So you find Lebanon, while it is willing for
Israeli to withdraw, cannot give the guarantees
the Israeli's want them to give.
/// END ACT ///
Arab observers note that Syria wields a great deal of
influence over Hizbollah guerrillas fighting the
Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon. They say the
Syrian government is not likely to encourage an end to
the violence along Israel's northern border, as long
as Syria is not at peace with Israel.
Experts say unless all parties reach an agreement by
the end of June, tensions throughout the region are
likely to rise.
Professor Salem says even a limited agreement would
help.
/// SALEM ACT THREE ///
All parties should be as serious and as quick as
they can to try to come up with something by the
end of May, even a declaration of principles.
And I think that would contribute greatly to
defusing the potential dangers.
/// END ACT ///
Israeli leaders say domestic pressure is driving the
decision to withdraw unilaterally from Lebanon. Arab
observers say the Israeli government is trying to
pressure Syria to reach an agreement.
Independent observers in the region note the Israeli
government, by its decision, has also placed
additional pressure on those trying to mediate the
peace process and, at least indirectly, on itself.
(SIGNED)
NEB/SB/JWH/RAE
30-Mar-2000 11:42 AM EDT (30-Mar-2000 1642 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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