February 16, 2000
NORTHERN IRELAND PEACE PROCESS: HEADING 'IN REVERSE'?
In the wake of recent developments in Northern Ireland, observers in Europe, Asia, Latin America and Canada expressed deep concern that the peace process there has hit a "brick wall," and may be heading "in reverse." Britain's suspension last Friday of Northern Ireland's multiparty government and the resumption of direct rule after parties to the conflict deadlocked over arms decommissioning was greeted with concern that the move may have been "premature." But a majority of observers still held out hope that the peace process was only "frozen" for the time being and would have survived the suspension. However, last night's decision by the IRA to end talks with the commission monitoring disarmament of the British province's paramilitary groups and withdraw all decommissioning proposals prompted a number of commentators to conclude that in the resulting protracted political vacuum, the peace process is indeed in great jeopardy. A few stressed that one positive still remains: despite all the political turmoil, the ceasefire in Northern Ireland has endured. Most analysts held the IRA responsible for upsetting the peace process, but others held that both the republican and unionist sides could be blamed for the current imbroglio. Opinionmakers called on all those involved to continue a dialogue aimed at breaking the deadlock and protecting the progress made thus far. A German daily asserted that "a creative approach" will be necessary to overcome the stalemate, suggesting that "a mediator with imagination...someone like George Mitchell who created confidence...last year"--should be tapped once more for his diplomatic services. Following are commentary highlights:
'THE IRA'S RESPONSIBILITY': Most observers were dismayed with the IRA's actions, first for its foot-dragging on decommissioning, and then for dealing the peace process a "bodyblow" by pulling out of disarmament talks. Analysts everywhere urged the group to make good on its disarmament pledge. Dublin's top-circulation, centrist Irish Independent said that Sinn Fein and its IRA allies "must recognise the overwhelming demonstration of democratic support for the removal of guns and explosives from Irish politics, expressed by the Irish people north and south, in the vote on the Good Friday Agreement." A moderate Belfast paper held that the decommissioning issue is central to progress, contending that for democracy to function in Northern Ireland, government officials must operate without "the threat of a pistol to their head or a bomb at their door." Conservative papers in Britain were the most strident in their criticism. They saw the IRA as "terrorists" who have "reverted to type" by "abandoning negotiations and resorting to the threat of the gun and the bomb."
BRITISH, UNIONISTS SCRUTINIZED: Other media voices questioned the decisions made by the British government and the Unionists. Pointing out that it went ahead despite a "last-minute" proposal by the IRA to put their arms "beyond use," several in Britain and Argentina held that London's suspension of the N. Ireland Assembly was made too hastily. Pundits held that the action may have "undermined" reformers in the republican movement. London's liberal Guardian maintained that the Britain "must now show an equal understanding of the difficulties [Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams] will now have in advocating a political path where 'normal' politics have been suspended." Others warned the Unionists against insisting on "psuedo deadlines" and allowing the weapons issue to scuttle a political solution.
EDITOR: Diana McCaffrey
EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 32 reports from 15 countries, February 3-16. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.
EUROPE
IRELAND: "Ball Is Back At Unionists' Feet As IRA Quits Talks"
The left-of-center Irish Times' Northern Editor Deaglán de Bréadun held (2/16): "The history of the peace process sometimes seems like a series of brick walls which were somehow scaled or broken through or dismantled or got around because the will to move forward was always there, shared by a diverse community, from republican revolutionaries looking for a way out of violence to unionists prepared to give a little to save a lot. On each occasion the problem or brick wall seemed insurmountable and no solution was in sight. We have arrived today at another of those stages. The immediate result of last night's IRA statement will be to render this afternoon's meeting of the taoiseach and the British prime minister a fairly hollow affair. That will not matter much if, in the longer term, a resolution of the impasse can be found, although at this stage Mr. Ahern and Mr. Blair must be scratching their heads.... Like the second shoe waiting to drop in the hotel room above you, the IRA statement came as no surprise, although it was still a bit of a jolt. It was certainly a major setback, since it was probably the first time in 200 years of republican history that the movement was discussing the issue of voluntary disarmament with an official body.... Senior political sources were still hopeful that the IRA was playing a tactical game rather than taking an irrevocable step on the weapons issue... As the problem is currrently perceived, there seems to be no escape from the iron logic of 'No David Trimble, no peace process.'... But it is time to move the process on to new ground, for unionists to show they are still listening and sincerely want to restore the executive, and not engaged in some nefarious plot to undermine the Belfast Agreement or pursuing the highly unrealistic aim of governing with the exclusive support of the SDLP. In that sense, despite all the thundering and the outrage, the ball is at the unionists' feet."
"Challenge For IRA Is To Deliver Up Its Weapons"
The left-of-center Examiner editorialized (2/12): "Deplorably, a military rather than a political issue has put the North's democracy in jeopardy. The basic challenge facing republicans is to deliver on the terms of the Good Friday peace agreement by decommissioning weapons."
"Breakthrough Came Too Late"
The liberal Sunday Tribune political editor Stephen Collins commented (2/13): "Right up to the moment 5:03 on Friday that Mandelson announced his decision, Irish officials were frantically trying to prevent the British from suspending the executive.... On Friday afternoon...the Irish side was told that something was on the way from republicans which could save the day. Renewed efforts were made to persuade Mandelson not to suspend until it could be established what the latest republican offer was. However, he was under pressure from unionists to save Trimble and at 5.03 he announced the suspension. Twenty minutes later, Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams said a breakthrough had been made and an hour later General de Chastelain issued his second report. In this report, which was much more positive than the first one, published at the same time, he said the IRA had indicated a context in which the IRA will initiate a comprehensive process to put arms beyond use. It sounded like the breakthrough the Irish government had been working for but it came just too late."
"Putting It Back Together Again"
The top-circulation, centrist Irish Independent had this editorial (2/14): "We have to pick up the pieces, work out what went wrong, decide on what is recoverable and what is not, and try again. Central to this process must be a careful analysis of the arms issue, not to cast blame, but to get it right this time for once and for all.... When the ceasefires were first declared, David Irvine of the PUP expressed the view that the best mode of decommissioning would be rust. Many well intentioned people within the republican movement still take this view. But it won't do. Sinn Fein and its IRA allies must recognise the overwhelming demonstration of democratic support for the removal of guns and explosives from Irish politics, expressed by the Irish people north and south, in the vote on the Good Friday Agreement."
BRITAIN: "Gloom As Ulster Peace Moves Into Reverse"
The centrist Independent commented (2/16): "The Northern Ireland peace process spiraled into even deeper crisis last night as the IRA pulled out of disarmament talks and said it was withdrawing all decommissioning propositions. It dealt a bodyblow to hopes that a speedy review of the issue might produce a deal that would allow the suspended devolved government to be reactivated soon.... It could have been an even worse day for the peace process yesterday: Somebody could have gone back to war and explosions could again have boomed across Belfast. That did not happen. But as news of the IRA statement spread, the mood darkened appreciably, as the realization sank in that the peace process had gone into reverse.... The concern will be that in the resulting protracted political vacuum the process may, strand by strand, unravel even further."
"The IRA Pulls The Plug"
The liberal Guardian editorialized (2/16): "The peace process is not beyond rescue. The ceasefire survives. But the story which began to emerge yesterday suggests that both may have been unnecessarily endangered by London's reluctance to move. Mr. Blair and Mr. Ahern have urgent repair work to do when they meet in London today."
"The Dance Of Death"
The conservative Daily Telegraph opined (2/16): "It is just possible that Messrs Mandelson and Blair are beginning to realize what they are up against. Sinn Fein/IRA walk in and out of talks; General de Chastelain writes and rewrites reports. The circular dance of the peace process continues. But none of it can alter the simple truth: that, without the threat or use of violence, the republicans would not have won the concessions they have, and they now hope to win more. Why should the Ulster Unionists deal with such people?"
"Reverting To Type"
The conservative tabloid Daily Mail editorialized (2/16): "So all the pretence has been abandoned. With the first major crisis in the Northern Ireland peace process, Sinn Fein/IRA has reverted to type, abandoned negotiations and resorted to the threat of the gun and the bomb. It is the most profoundly depressing development."
"High Stakes"
The mass-circulation, conservative tabloid Sun editorialized (2/16): "Like a gambler playing for the highest stakes, the IRA walks away from the arms talks. It may be just another round in the endless jostling for position by the terrorists. But the time has come for them to show they will give up arms. It is time to put the cards on the table."
"Ulster Timebomb"
The leftwing tabloid Mirror editorialized (2/16): "Someone and something must give. If it doesn't, the consequences will be too terrible to think about."
"Decommissioning Issue Will Neither Go Way Nor Be Fudged Again"
Robert McCartney wrote in Northern Ireland's neutral to moderate Unionist Belfast Telegraph (2/16): "At all times, Sinn Fein/IRA have viewed the peace process and the Belfast agreement not as a political settlement, but as the basis for conflict resolution between them and the British state. The price they demanded from a Britain they did not trust, for keeping bombs out of London, was the relentless progression of...transitional arrangements. The retention by the IRA of its military capacity to renew mainland bombing is its guarantee that Britain will keep the process in movement. This is the crux of the decommissioning dispute. It is the reason why successive British governments have resiled from every position they had assumed on this issue. It explains why democrats in Northern Ireland are cajoled and bullied into sharing government with a party inextricably linked with terrorists who have slaughtered and mutilated thousands of British citizens, attempted the assassination of an entire British Cabinet, and mortar bombed Downing Street, and which is determined to remain armed. In these circumstances, Britain's 'democratic' objections to the inclusion of Haider's Freedom Party in the Austrian government has the whiff of hypocrisy. The weakness of both governments is highlighted by their pathetic efforts to extract some comfort from the IRA's latest statement [regarding putting its arms beyond use.]... On any analysis, it is simply a reiteration of Sinn Fein/IRA's basic demands. In terms, the IRA will consider not destroying its arms and explosives, but putting them beyond use, presumably until again required.... It is now beginning to dawn upon many of those unionists who voted YES in the referendum that they have been the victims of a gigantic confidence trick which Mr. Blair is largely responsible for selling, and Mr. Trimble for buying. The making of pledges which were never intended to be fulfilled, the lavish distribution of money, jobs, patronage and a sense of self-importance, and the encouragement of decent people to believe that real peace and prosperity were guaranteed for their children, were all used to disguise the primary purpose of the entire scheme. That purpose, in all its naked truth, was to keep bombs off the mainland to ensure the goodwill and electoral support of those who, by their votes, can make or break a British government.... The decommissioning issue will neither go away nor be fudged again. There is no future for any government in which democrats have to operate with the threat of a pistol to their head or a bomb at their door. If democracy is to function, the SDLP will have to step away from violent republicanism and join with those who together may forge a new beginning."
"Irish Symbols"
The independent Financial Times editorialized (2/14): "The temptation now is to conclude that the circle can never be squared. That would be a mistake. Once the inevitable recriminations are put to one side, what is striking is the mutual interest that David Trimble and Gerry Adams have in rescuing something from the wreckage.... Two things can be said about the impasse over arms that led to the weekend suspension of Northern Ireland's fledgling political institutions. First, the IRA must now demonstrate serious resolve in meeting its commitments under the Belfast agreement to decommission weapons. Second, David Trimble's Ulster Unionists must not allow the huge progress already made towards a peace to founder on the issue of weapons already put out of use.... There is an ever-present danger that more extreme republicans will see the present vacuum as an opportunity to return to violence. Both (London and Dublin) governments must continue to work closely together to rebuild confidence and, even as they allocate blame, republicans and unionists alike must recognize how far they have come."
"Halt In The Game Of Bluff"
The independent Financial Times had this op-ed analysis (2/14): "Poor Peter Mandelson. The Northern Ireland secretary has probably never had to make a tougher decision. His move to suspend the province's devolved government ended a week of high-stakes poker. In what was clearly a political call--with a questionable legal base according to some officials--he risked a confrontation with Dublin. By acting despite a last-minute move on arms by the IRA, the British minister also provoked the anger of Sinn Fein, potentially undermining reformers in the republican movement who have pointed to their two Stormont ministers as vindication of the decision to 'go political' and abandon the armed struggle.... Putting the pieces back together again will not be easy. On the face of it, unionists again find themselves in the position of only being able to express dissent in an act of destruction. But some commentators believe there may be a more positive outcome.... It is probably several years, maybe even a political generation before Northern Ireland will be able to finally discard its sterile constitutional bickering. But the 72 days of the executive have whetted the public appetite. If the arms issue can now finally be resolved there is a real chance the agreement can finally be fully implemented."
"Other Men's Shoes"
The liberal Guardian editorialized (2/14): "The suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly and Executive was understandable--and doubtless necessary--in the context of Mr. Trimble's difficulties with the hardliners within his own party. Mr. Trimble is a vital part of the peace process. But so is Mr. Adams. Secretary Mandelson must now show an equal understanding of the difficulties the Sinn Fein leader will now have in advocating a political path where 'normal' politics have been suspended.... Most close observers of nationalist communities in Northern Ireland believe the issue (of decommissioning) to be irrelevant. They point to recent pronouncements by Martin McGuinnes which state as clearly as possible--to those who want to listen--that the IRA accepts that the war is over."
"Calling St. Patrick"
The liberal Observer opined (2/13): "Devolution in Northern Ireland has broken down altogether--but again there is cause for optimism. Having brought down the assembly, the priority must now be to rebuild it. The new De Chastelain report offers hope that this might not take long. In this atmosphere of pseudo-deadlines imposed by all sides, it would be foolish to set a target date, but all concerned talk of St. Patrick's Day--March 17--as a crucial date in their calendar. Let us hope that, within the five weeks until then, the assembly can be brought back."
"Time For Plan B"
The conservative Sunday Telegraph said in its lead editorial (2/13): "Northern Ireland is calm on the surface, volatile below. The fabric of law and order has been corroded by the endless concessions of the 'peace process.'... If the government truly favors local decisionmaking in Northern Ireland--as it does in Scotland and Wales--then it should be ready to construct an assembly that includes both Ulster Unionists and the nationalist SDLP: in short, an assembly open to all parties prepared to behave as democrats. The exclusion of Sinn Fein from such a body, while the IRA chooses to remain armed, might not serve the immediate interests of the 'peace process.' It would, however, defend those of democracy."
FRANCE: "Growing Pains"
Dominique Quino held in Catholic La Croix (2/11): "David Trimble's Ulster Unionists are threatening to withdraw from the coalition which is in charge of running Northern Ireland. They are accusing the IRA of delay in disarming its soldiers.
"Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams contends that he is not boxed-in by a deadline, which according to him was 'unilaterally' set by the Protestants.... Who is right, and who is wrong? It is of little importance. There are indeed the written texts, which did not stipulate a deadline. There are also the secret agreements, the oral promises, the tacit commitments, of which we will never know very much. And then, there are the symbols. Giving up their weapons is probably the hardest step to take for fighters who for so long, have used force as the only means of expression and recognition. If the peace process survives this crisis, it will come out strengthened."
GERMANY: "Wanted: A Mediator With Imaginary Force"
London correspondent Stefan Klein wrote in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (2/14): "All positions have been presented thousands of times, and the prayer's wheels have been overstrained. Unionist leader David Trimble and his republican counterpart Gerry Adams have reached a stalemate, and a creative approach will be necessary to overcome this stalemate. A Camp David is necessary, a closed door meeting far away from the political paralysis in Belfast. A mediator with imagination, someone like George Mitchell who created confidence with his dinner diplomacy last year.... Now people are necessary who think the unthinkable and say, for instance, that the IRA must also take part in the talks--and not only its civilian arm Sinn Fein. The IRA continues to be a shadow organization about which we only know little. Gerry Adams says that he cannot speak for the IRA and, therefore, cannot force it to disarm. It is idle talk to argue whether this is an argument to protect himself or not. It would be more reasonable to turn directly to those who sit on the arms."
"Precautionary Measure"
Right-of-center weekly Welt am Sonntag of Hamburg held (2/12): "If bad mistakes are not made, the cool peace in Northern Ireland can be saved. Terrorist wars...need more time than ideological wars.... Thirty-one years of terrorism against the background of 400 years of British colonial policy and legitimate resistance have accumulated an enormous potential of distrust. The return of the British direct rule is less a sanction but a precautionary measure. A voluntary resignation of the Catholic-Protestant Ulster government could...have resulted in a victory of the opponents to the compromise solution. The solution now depends on the beginning of the disarmament of the IRA. A modus must be find to resolve this problem. The rest will emanate from the wearing down of the conflict whose momentum is slowly disappears."
"Short Nobel Prize Period"
Right-of-center Thueringer Allgemeine of Erfurt said (2/12): "The atmosphere for peace Nobel Prizes in Northern Ireland only lasted for a short period of time. After great progress that culminated in the formation of a regional government, the time for a painstaking way out of the stalemate and the fear of new terror has begun again. The blockade is to be bridged by a new direct rule of the government in London. The suspension of the Northern Irish provincial government could anticipate its collapse and thus preserve the outcome of the referendum with 71.2 percent in favor of the peace agreement for new negotiating approaches. With such a basis, the whole process should not begin from scratch after possible concessions from the IRA."
RUSSIA: "Pessimists Were Right"
Vladimir Kara Murza Jr. wrote from London in reformist Noviye Izvestiya (2/3): "Pessimists, who have insisted all along that the peace process is doomed, must be right. The general mood in London, Belfast and Washington these days is a combination of despair, concern for the future, and bitter disappointment."
CROATIA: "Northern Ireland Game Of Distrust"
Fran Visnar commented in closely-aligned to former ruling HDZ government Vjesnik (2/14): "An abrupt disarmament is unacceptable to the IRA: It wants longer terms and less strict procedures of inspection of its arsenal. The British government is in a tight spot: If it gives in to the IRA tactics, the Unionist camp will fall apart. If it takes a 'tough stand,' the final consequence is the worst-case scenario: the return of terrorism. And that would really be a catastrophe for Northern Ireland with very unpleasant effects domestically, but also internationally for both Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland. Hence, even a fragile compromise between the two communities is better than uncivilized positions and messages that the coexistence of Protestants and Catholics in Ulster is like creating artificial life in a laboratory."
CZECH REPUBLIC: "Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Kosovo Similarities"
As Kveta Buschova pointed out in right-of-center, economic daily Hospodarske noviny (2/14): "Last week's events in Northern Ireland sent a warning signal. Tension and bloody terror threaten to start raging once again. Moreover, direct protagonists of the events in Northern Ireland are not the only ones who will pay for the continuing lack of trust. The echo of the events will be heard at least from the other side of the Old World, Bosnia.... Conflicts in Ulster and even in Bosnia and Kosovo have similar characteristics. Their real reason is a fight of religious-ethnic groups for life in dignity and independence from higher domination. In all three cases, economic, social and political reasons are hidden behind this 'exterior' religious-ethnic peel.... Bad events that have led to reintroduction of British rule over Ulster constitute a much worse example than it may seem. Northern Ireland is located in a country and region with a long democratic tradition. If London has to reintroduce its rule over Ulster, it hardly can be expected that the international community could ever leave Bosnia and Kosovo."
THE NETHERLANDS: "Impasse Less Dramatic Than It Seems"
Influential, liberal De Volkskrant noted in its editorial (2/14): "At first sight, one would get the impression that the Northern Irish peace process failed.... However, a second look teaches that the impasse is less dramatic than it seems. The objectives of the suspension of Northern Ireland's power-sharing government of Protestants and Catholics is to prevent further polarization and a complete collapse of the peace process.... By taking over control, the British secretary for Northern Ireland wants to freeze the peace process at the current level. He wants to hit two birds with one stone: preventing the Unionists from taking the government down...increasing the pressure on the IRA to get going with disarmament.... It is a risky strategy because it could also result in a widening the gap between the parties and eventually in new violence. Nevertheless, there is a good chance that the British pressure will work for there are some hopeful aspect: no one would like to return to the old (pre-peace talks) situation...and the self-rule functioned very well.... A drastic step is necessary in order not to return to the old hopeless situation. Now it is the IRA's turn to make the next move."
ROMANIA: "Guilt Belongs Entirely To IRA"
Cristian Campeanu's editorial in pro-government Romania Libera held (2/14): "First of all, we must say that London's decision represents a desperate attempt to save the peace process, and not a repressive gesture. The Unionist Party in Ulster carries the responsibility for the suspension, while the guilt belongs entirely to the IRA.... The IRA has no excuse. For almost two years, they tried everything to avoid putting down their weapons. In fact, the IRA , so far, hasn't surrendered one bullet from its huge arsenal of weapons, ammunition and explosives. Some of the arguments they offered instead were ill-willed, while others showed blindness, or even stupidity."
TURKEY: "Dilemma For A Political Solution"
Zafer Atay wrote in economics/politics Dunya (2/16): "The demise of the Northern Ireland peace agreement is because of IRA's unkept promises. This once again shows that no gain can possibly be achieved by bargaining with terrorists.... The Northern Ireland issue is too complex to solve by giving concessions in the guise of political solutions.... England will most likely start sending military troops to Northern Ireland, and a state of emergency situation will emerge once again.... And the Blair government will likely have to pay a very bitter and costly toll in the next elections."
EAST ASIA
CHINA: "Why Is IRA Disarmament So Difficult?"
Tang Minguo wrote in official Central Legal and Political Commission Legal Daily (Fazhi Ribao, 2/14): "The Irish Republican Army's lack of confidence in the Irish peace process is an important reason for its slowness in dropping the weapons. Analysts predict the problem will be solved in the end. If everything goes smoothly, the earliest date of disarmament may be in May of this year, or it may possibly drag on."
SOUTH ASIA
BANGLADESH: "Dwindling Irish Peace"
The centrist, English-language Independent editorially commented (2/13): "Britain moved quickly to strip the Northern Ireland's government of power, hoping that the peace agreement would survive unscathed. The rationale behind this move, ending the 72-day experiment in responsibility-sharing among two British Protestant and two Irish Catholic parties in the province, was to prevent collapse of the peace agreement. How far the latest British political ploy would help in attaining this objective remains to be seen. It is generally contended that signing peace agreements does not necessarily ensure the establishment of peace, especially between parties who have been at loggerheads for a long period. With armed guerrilla groups monitoring every move, there is the possibility that the problems in Northern Ireland may revert back to square one. But the world community would bet its money on the better judgment and good intentions of the political parties and warring factions for implementing the much-needed peace in the region, as only peace would make good governance possible."
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
CANADA: "Britain's Gamble"
The English-language Gazette of Quebec held (2/15): "Northern Ireland's republicans are outraged about Britain's suspension of home rule Friday. They are particularly upset that London acted despite a last-minute report suggesting that the Irish Republican Army might be ready to go ahead with the disarmament necessary to make the Good Friday accord work. But it's hard to sympathize with their anger. The IRA has had weeks, if not months, to make its move. When it finally came, not only was it rather late but the IRA's position appeared ambiguous.... It's up to the IRA to spell out what it means. If there is reason to think it is sincere, it's up to Britain to find a face-saving formula to get the Good Friday accord and home rule back on track. Having done what was tactically necessary to keep the Unionists in the process, Britain should waste no time in reciprocating any genuine indication of progress by the IRA. "
"The Victory Of Mistrust"
Serge Truffaut wrote in liberal, French-language Le Devoir (2/14): "The mistrust is not only mutual, it is also internal. Today in Belfast, David Trimble, first minister designate of Ulster and leader of the Protestants, meets his own troops who, according to observers, could very well decide to oust him.... The likes of Ian Paisley keep hammering that it was a mistake to accept the presence of Sinn Fein in the Assembly as long as the IRA had not emptied its weapons caches. The same mistrust reigns on the Catholic side. By refusing to set foot on the road to disarmament, IRA members are jeopardizing Gerry Adams' future, since he had promised, at the time of the agreement negotiated by American Senator George Mitchell, last fall, that he would be able to convince the IRA.... Last night, the IRA presented a plan for disarmament but without a detailed calendar. Protestants immediately denounced the initiative. Once again, it seems that those who thirst for blood on both sides will win the day."
ARGENTINA: "A Hard Blow To The Peace Process"
London-based correspondent Maria Laura Avignolo opined in leading Clarin (2/12): "Because the government in London was unable to disarm the IRA...when it wanted to, it decided to temporarily suspend the institutions voted by 72 percent of the Irish people. Therefore, the assembly was dissolved in spite of President Bill Clinton's pressure, and Irish President Bertie Ahern's desperation.... But only a few hours after dissolving Northern Ireland's key pacifying instrument, it was proven that closing the assembly was a premature move. Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Mandelson made the decision disregarding a second report...which talked about 'progress' in the confiscation of weapons on behalf of IRA and which is still secret. Mandelson's election strategy helped Tony Blair to reach power. But that experience was not enough to win in a land where weapons have ruled for the past 600 years and men are tough and implacably determined. Mandelson's incapability to understand the Irish people's different nuances and the greys of negotiations will most likely cost him his position sooner or later, if the resumption of the Assembly in Belfast takes place.... The IRA will never hand over their weapons nor will they produce a 'symbolic disarmament' with a suspended assembly. Weapons are their instruments for negotiations even though they are not officially part of the process and, paradoxically, they are the reason why things are on the verge. London's inflexible position and its pro-Unionist attitude aimed at preventing Trimble's resignation, may lead to a comeback of violence in Northern Ireland, to Adams' resignation as interlocutor and to a new division in IRA which will submerge the province and Great Britain under a wave of horrible terrorist attacks."
MEXICO: "Bad News"
Nationalist/independent El Universal (2/14) carried a column by Miguel Angel Padilla Acosta: "The suspension of Northern Ireland's autonomous government is very bad news.... Even though this is a tough situation it could be solved if all parties involved do their share.... London should reactivate the autonomous government as soon as possible not only to prevent the failure of the peace process, but to give it a boost. Irish Republicans and Unionists should set aside their mutual recriminations and resume negotiations."
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