Military

Thursday, February 3, 2000

RUSSIA'S 'VICTORY' OVER GROZNY; MOSCOW'S RELATIONS WITH WEST ON 'UPSWING'?

In foreign commentary on Russia, recent visits to Moscow by a host of Western officials including Secretary of State Albright shared the editorial spotlight with news from the Chechen battlefront this week, as Russian troops advanced on Grozny following a rebel retreat. On Chechnya, papers outside of Russia acknowledged that the Chechen pullout is "good news" for Acting President Putin and could mark a "decisive moment" in the four-month-old conflict, but generally agreed that it was far too premature to "proclaim victory" overall. In fact, many anticipated that "the 'victory' could be a prelude to a longer and more costly war," if the rebels merely regroup and continue the fighting in southern Chechnya. Meanwhile, Russian print media had little to say about the fighting in the breakaway republic; instead, focusing largely on the parade of high-ranking visitors--including EU foreign ministers, representatives from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, as well as Ms. Albright--who traveled to Russia over the past several days, in part to appeal to Moscow to stop the fighting in Chechnya and in part to take the measure of new Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin. A few papers complained about the "rude interference" of the West, and particularly the Council of Europe, in "Russia's internal affairs." Nevertheless--perhaps as a result of a Council decision not to suspend Russia's membership, as well as the "cordiality" of the visits between Mr. Putin and foreign officials--a striking number of Russian publications across the political spectrum shared the view that Moscow's "standing firm" and "holding out against the onslaught" of Western "threats" on Chechnya was paying off and that "the West is beginning to understand Moscow's stand on Chechnya." Elsewhere in Europe, pundits expressed frustration that Western leaders had failed to persuade Russia to end its Chechen campaign and had, in their opinion, "softened their language toward Moscow." The message delivered to Moscow, contended a Berlin daily, was that "a few thousand Chechens are not enough to jeopardize important relations with Moscow." Highlights follow:

GROZNY 'CAPTURED'...'BUT WHAT NOW?': Noting that "Russia has now achieved one of its most important goals with the capture of the rebel capital," a Munich daily joined others from Europe, South Asia and the Middle East, in arguing that "if Vladimir Putin wants to avoid a guerrilla war that will drag on for months and years, he must now, from a position of strength, offer political solutions." Having "satisfied its ego...Moscow should now follow the counsel of world leaders and reach a negotiated settlement with Chechen representatives," insisted an Islamabad pundit. Moscow's reformist Segodnya concluded, however, that "with the fall of Grozny...Moscow is even less interested in...talks with [Chechen President] Maskhadov."

RUSSIA'S RELATIONS WITH WEST ON 'UPSWING'?: Not having "knuckled under" in the face of Western criticism on Chechnya, Russia--in the view of many media voices there--may have reached a "turning point" in its relations with the U.S. and other Western countries. "Boycotts, embargoes, ultimatums and other threats...are history now," declared one. Secretary Albright's stint in Moscow further reinforced the view among Russian analysts that the "crisis between Russia and the United States may end soon" and that "things are getting back to normal." A few judged that with Moscow under Mr. Putin "proving capable of being both flexible and firm," the U.S. is "showing more respect" for the former superpower.

EDITOR: Katherine L. Starr

EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 59 reports from 24 countries, January 16 - February 3. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.

EUROPE

RUSSIA: "Back To Normal"

Dmitry Kosyrev commented on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2/3): "The main result of this visit and the series of meetings between Russia and the West before it, admittedly, is that things are getting back to normal. Boycotts, embargoes, ultimatums and other threats that marked the end of the Yeltsin era and the beginning of a new one are history now. Normal, however, does not mean an easy life for Russian diplomacy. American-Russian relations, despite the optimism of official assessments, are like a half-full glass, causing conflicting comments, with people referring to the same meetings between Russians and Americans, using words like 'clash, 'breakthrough' or 'victory for realism.'"

"U.S. Stand Changes"

According to Yevgeny Antonov in reformist Vremya MN (2/3): "The public statements Madeleine Albright made in Moscow suggest a certain change in the U.S. stand. Speaking at the diplomatic academy yesterday, she said that Russia and the United States would do well to come to a common understanding of the notion of a multipolar world. The globalization of economic ties, she believes, is an unprecedented and positive development. That coming from a high-ranking official must please Moscow, which constantly accuses Washington of a desire for world domination."

"U.S.-Russian Relations On Upswing?"

Vadim Markushin commented in centrist army Krasnaya Zvezda (2/2): "The issues under discussion between Madeleine Albright and Igor Ivanov in Moscow point to more than just the Americans' continuing to show interest in Russia's role in world affairs. Presumably, we are in for a new upswing in Russo-American relations after...a rather protracted slump. The Americans have slowly but steadily been developing a more realistic view of themselves as a global power. While their traditional rhetoric, self-confidence and imperial glamour are still there...there have been signs of realism in their actions. In any event, the peak of their euphoria over their absolute and undivided leadership seems to be over.... Though Washington criticizes (without going into a frenzy about it) Moscow for its policy in Chechnya, it is well aware that the Chechen free-for-all is part of a sprawling network of international banditry.... With Moscow proving capable of being both flexible and firm, as necessary, the State Department shows more respect for the Russian foreign ministry. In other words, the Americans know that Russia will not knuckle under when confronted with wealth and economic power."

"Washington Appreciates And Respects Force"

Stanislav Menshikov filed from Amsterdam for neo-communist Slovo (2/2): "In Moscow, the Secretary of State sought concessions, if only the slightest ones, on America's NMD systems; promises to renew cooperation with NATO, broken off because of the war in Yugoslavia; a general declaration to carry on market reform--to name but a few aims. It looks as though she could only accomplish part of her mission. Moscow made a few 'soothing' statements which really meant nothing.... If Putin's opponents at home and abroad fail in the next two months to arrange or provoke several major setbacks for him as the head of state, Washington will, for the first time in the last 15 years, have to deal with a man who owes nothing to the West.... Apparently, the West is most concerned about the possible revival of Russia's military might....

"Given its new doctrine...Russia can expect a stepped-up propaganda offensive from the West. As for realpolitik, Washington, as shown by the Albright visit, appreciates and respects force. It always did."

"Moscow Won't Talk With Maskhadov"

According to Svetlana Sukhova in reformist Segodnya (2/2): "With the fall of Grozny, there will be no doubt that Chechnya will remain in Russia. Moscow is even less interested in having talks with Maskhadov now."

"Crisis Is Over"

Yevgeny Antonov commented on page one of reformist Vremya MN (2/1): "It looks like the current crisis between Russia and the United States may end soon...and give way to deep stagnation. Madeleine Albright's first day in Moscow was a complete deja vu, a clone of her visit here a year ago. Almost nothing has changed since then, and the agenda of her talks with Igor Ivanov is practically the same: ABM, START II, the nuclear danger of pariah states, and Chechnya as today's version of Kosovo. The discussion dragged on for six hours and brought no results. The participants in the dialogue did not look very upset by the ineffective mechanism of consultations between their countries.... After the secretary meets with Putin tomorrow, it may finally become clear whether Russia and the United States can get out of the protracted crisis. The Americans seem to be ready for that. Albright once called Putin a 'leading Russian reformer.' Another gesture of goodwill by Washington is an invitation from Bill Clinton for Vladimir Putin to visit the United States. Albright will hand it to the acting president personally. If Moscow wants normalization, too, Putin will have to return the 'present.' He may, for instance, secure the release of correspondent Andrei Babitsky of Radio Liberty, while Madeleine Albright is in Moscow."

"Meeting Incites Optimism"

According to Aleksandr Chudodeyev in reformist Segodnya (2/1): "Yesterday's meeting between the two foreign ministers incited optimism. Albright certainly raised the question of Chechnya...but she wasn't exactly fixed on it. She urged Moscow to start negotiations with the Chechens, but did not threaten sanctions or cuts in American aid to Russia. She was a lot tougher, though, on ABM."

"No Illusions"

Yuri Chubchenko said on page one of reformist, business-oriented Kommersant (2/1): "Albright must have no illusions about getting over the Duma's resistance on START II and Washington's plans to modify the ABM Treaty.... As for ABM, Albright herself has said that there is a 'hypothetical' chance of Moscow accepting even moderate changes.... Albright has brought Vladimir Putin a personal message and invitation from Bill Clinton to visit the United States. If the acting president turns a deaf ear and ignores this gesture of recognition, the bold lady diplomat will act in her usual manner. Failing in her mission, the American 'Iron Lady' may demand that the West pass from persuasion to stringent economic sanctions."

"Putin As Reality"

Dmitry Yuryev remarked on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2/1): "Obviously, the Americans don't 'support' (Putin's) candidacy but they recognize him as a reality and, among other things, consider that he is assured victory in the elections."

"Washington Nervous"

Nationalist opposition Sovetskaya Rossiya (2/1) ran this piece by L.Nikolayev: "The White House and American allies in Europe are very nervous, not knowing what to expect from Putin. The signals they are getting from Moscow are conflicting and lead to just as conflicting assessments. The secretary of state, now visiting Moscow, will obviously try to drag Putin into the orbit of U.S. policy as a satellite. What that policy brought this country in the past is well known."

"Turning Point"

Dmitry Kosyrev, reporting on a visit to Moscow by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, said on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (1/29): "There are signs that the West is beginning to understand Moscow's stand (on Chechnya). One of several major points on the agenda, Chechnya did not dominate the discussions. This is one little sign that the Chechnya test for Putin is coming to an end. We may be seeing the last of a powerful campaign by a good half of the world, which is threatening sanctions to make Moscow stop its military operation in Chechnya. Standing firm, the (post-Yeltsin) administration has held out against the onslaught of the Europeans (with the Americans, until the Albright visit, staying in the background). Whatever could be said and answered has been said and answered. While remaining Putin's biggest headache, Chechnya evidently will not cause serious foreign policy crises any more."

"Everyone Pleased With Each Other"

Svetlana Sukhova of reformist Segodnya (1/28) filed from the PACE session in Strasbourg: "Everybody looked delighted. All were well aware of the true lay of the land and did not even try to hide this. It is just that each side had to play its part: The Council of Europe could not but react to the Chechen issue--it had to by definition--and Russia showed its resolve to see the Chechnya military campaign through."

"We've Had Enough Of Playing At Diplomacy"

Under this headline, neo-communist Slovo (1/28) ran this piece by Yury Glukhov: "UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has come for a visit, concerned over Chechnya. Chechnya had become a pin in the sides of EU foreign ministers in Brussels. The PACE, too, is suffering from chechenomania, eager to punish Russia by isolating it economically and politically. Punish for what? For attempting to bring in order and stop the bandits. Are we talking about thin-skinned young ladies who faint at the sight of a drop of blood? Not at all. Annan did not bat an eye watching NATO's outrages in independent Yugoslavia. The Strasbourg moralists represent those very countries that committed those crimes. For them, Chechnya is a matter of political intrigues, an excuse to put pressure on Moscow. No doubt, Chechnya is our pain and tragedy. That said, must we play at diplomacy and bow and scrape before people with a double standard of morality?"

"Rude Interference"

Official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (1/26) ran this comment by Nikolai Paklin: "The hopes that Lord Russell Johnston's trip to the Caucasus would be an eye-opener for PACE members does not seem to have come true. By disavowing his own statements in Moscow with shocking ease, the lord censured Moscow for its intention to see the anti-terrorist operation through. Does he expect the Russian army to stop halfway, as it did last time, and let Chechen and other terrorists in the Caucasus thrive and commit outrages? No, we won't do that again. What the PACE is doing is nothing but gross interference in Russia's internal affairs."

"Less Than Sanctions"

Vladimir Katin filed from Brussels for centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (1/26): "The manner of discussing Russia's internal conflict and attempts to bring pressure to bear on the Russian leadership by economic means, of course, mean interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. The foreign ministers of European countries, well versed in politics, are certainly aware of that. They also know that this is no way to change Moscow's attitude toward bandits in Chechnya."

"Europe Out To Save Terrorists"

Aleksei Lyashchenko remarked on page one of centrist army Krasnaya Zvezda (1/26): "It is as if Europe's representative body has nothing to do but try to devise what is actually a way to rescue Chechen militants and terrorists."

"EC Puts On Show For Public"

Dmitry Gornostayev judged on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (1/25): "Clearly, EC countries want to please their public as they lash out at Russia, but when it comes to cooperation with Russia, they try to keep the effect of their verbal attacks to the minimum."

"Lord David Russel-Johnston: Sanctions Aren't Necessary"

Leonid Gankin reported in reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (1/21): "As he was leaving Russia, the chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe castigated the Maskhadov regime. He, in effect, supported the Russian military operation by noting that it was clear to him that something really had to be done with the gangster regime in Chechnya. Lord David Russel-Johnston said that after his meetings in Moscow and the North Caucasus, he and other members of his mission could better understand the position of the Russian leadership. They had changed their attitude toward the situation in Chechnya and no longer thought it necessary to apply sanctions to Russia. That, however, does not mean that such measures will not be taken."

"Russia To See War Through"

According to Viktor Pritula in neo-communist Slovo (1/21): "The West is beginning to realize that Russia is determined to see the war against Chechen bandits through.... While the end of the current campaign may not be far off, completely eradicating terrorism in the Caucasus may take much longer. Hopefully, the next Russian president will have enough willpower to clear the enormous piles of mistakes made by his predecessor."

BRITAIN: "Chechen Anxieties For Russia's Caucasian Neighbors"

The independent Financial Times opined (1/31): "Russia's southern neighbors are rightly alarmed by the twin phenomena of Russia's new nationalist energy and its huge military presence in and around Chechnya.... The red line that Washington is watching most closely is the Georgian frontier. Moscow has never fully come to terms with Georgia's independence; and since fighting started in Chechnya, Russia has castigated Georgia for allowing entry to 6,000 refugees and accused Georgia's president, Eduard Shevardnadze, of allowing weapons to reach Chechen rebels.... The West has, queasily, accepted Moscow's case for cracking down on terrorism emanating from Chechnya. It is aware that...the bandits and Islamic extremists who are exploiting anarchy could imperil the entire Caucasus. But the danger, which the United States is rightly determined to avert, is that Moscow might draw the conclusion that it has carte blanc further afield."

FRANCE: "Albright's Words; Chechen Fighters"

Jacques Amalric opined in left-of-center Liberation (2/2): "Madeleine Albright's words, 'it is time to put an end to this,' is the least she could say.... The question is whether she was inspired to say this after learning of the Chechens' decision to abandon Grozny. It is hard to believe it was a coincidence. To have waited until Grozny's fall to tell Putin it was time to end the massacre and sit at a negotiation table is in keeping with America's diplomacy, which is even more lenient than Europe's toward Moscow's colonial and electoral war.... The scenario fits well with Putin's own.... The only small problem is that the Chechen fighters are not ready to give up."

"A 'Victory' Full Of Dangers"

Veronique Soule argued in left-of-center Liberation (2/2): "The proclaimed 'victory' could be the prelude to a longer and more costly war, which the Chechens could win.... For Putin, this 'victory' comes just in time for his electoral agenda.... But the threat of a guerrilla war is obvious, and that favors the Chechens.... A political solution appears to be very remote, considering the distance which separates both sides, and the weak prods from the international community."

GERMANY: "Putin's Greater Russian View"

Werner Adam opined in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (2/3): "The West is beginning to adapt to Putin. Hardly anybody doubts that he will not be confirmed as the new leader in the Kremlin.... That is why many people think that they are well-advised to show restraint when it comes to criticizing Putin, although his popularity in Russia is mainly based on...Chechnya. Madeleine Albright did not consider this a problem and called Putin a promising reformer. However, it is a different question whether such premature praise will prompt Putin to accept a modification of the ABM Treaty.... This U.S. plan runs counter to Putin's notion of a new balance of forces. He no longer wants to accept further Russian 'humiliations.'... [Russia wants] good relations with United States, but according to Putin's Greater Russian view of things, this presupposes that the United States considers such relations as being at a global level."

"Grozny"

Werner Adam wrote this editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (2/2): "The fact that the Chechen resistance fighters have withdrawn from Grozny does not say too much about victory or defeat. First of all, we can expect a continuation of this war in the mountains in southern Chechnya. Evidence of this is that the rebels retreated in an orderly way and took their equipment. War leader...Vladimir Putin...will now present the capture of Grozny as evidence of his resolve to make Russia strong and great again. But what made him so popular among his compatriots has created distrust not only among the peoples in Northern Caucasus but also in the neighboring former Soviet republics. In Grozny, a preliminary end to the war may be in the offing, but we will not be able to speak of a pacification of the region for a long time to come."

"Russia's Dangerous Victory"

Moscow correspondent Tomas Avenarius filed the following editorial for Munich's centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung (2/2): "After four months of war in Chechnya, Russia has achieved one of its most important goals with the capture of the rebel capital. But what now? The rebels announced earlier that they are able to launch a 'full-fledged' guerrilla war in Chechnya as a whole.... If Vladimir Putin wants to avoid a guerrilla war that will drag on for months or years, he must now, from a position of strength, offer political solutions. First of all, he must gain the support of the Chechen people.

"This means, an orderly return of the refugees and comprehensive humanitarian assistance, quick reconstruction of destroyed cities and villages, and the creation of functioning political structures. The confidence of peace-loving Chechens will be decisive for Moscow's future in the Caucasus.... However, thus far, Putin has not shown any indication of such a behavior. The following scenario is more likely: The Kremlin leader announces victory in the Chechen war.... In parallel, he will install a puppet regime in Grozny. He will leave the refugees and the homeless to their fate, and the little money that will be available will land in the pockets of corrupt politicians in Moscow and their accomplices in Grozny. And the war continues in the mountains. This is what happened after the first war in Chechnya. In the end, Moscow lost it. For the time being, Putin is the winner of the bloodshed in Grozny, but he would have all reason to embark on a different path than his predecessor Boris Yeltsin."

"The Issue Is Disarmament Again"

Herbert Kremp offered this view in Berlin's right-of-center Die Welt (2/1): "The prospect for international isolation because of the war in the Caucasus, which Madeleine Albright threatened shortly before her first meeting with Vladimir Putin, will hardly frighten Moscow.... However, a higher-ranking U.S. interest is more important: On January 10, Putin signed a new Russian security concept that lowers the threshold for nuclear weapons use.... The acting Russian president is under pressure from the military...to modernize the antiquated armed forces.... At the same time, Putin is taking efforts to maintain an equal basis with the superior U.S. power on nuclear weapons. He is doing this in a demonstrative way to keep up appearances as a superpower."

"New Times, Old Conflicts"

Daniel Broessler argued in an editorial in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (1/31): "The Cold War has been over for more than a decade now, but Americans and Russians have not yet developed a functioning system of relations. When Madeleine Albright meets her Russian counterpart in Moscow today, this will become obvious again.... Now that the Yeltsin era is over, it is becoming obvious how little has been achieved. With...Putin, a kind of fraternization will be impossible. This is why it is now increasingly surfacing how different the mutual interests are.... Russian-American distrust is based on real conflicts of interests. Unlike during the Cold War, there is no clear consent about the mutual spheres of influence.... The core of Russian interests is in jeopardy in Central Asia. More is at stake than prestige. The issue is access to Caspian oil and gas. In the long run, Moscow will feel more threatened by a U.S. pipeline from Azerbaijan to Turkey than by an enlargement of NATO.... This is the background of Russia's fighting in the Caucasus.... When it comes to arms built-up, Albright must fear similar distrust.... Moscow and Washington are still entangled in the disarmament trap that was set up during the Cold War..... But a few days after taking power, Putin at least formally lowered the threshold for the first use of nuclear weapons. This has not really increased the danger of a nuclear war, but it showed how important the bomb still is for Moscow--as the last link of today's Russian regional power to the former Soviet superpower."

"Rather A Soldier Than A Reformer"

Tomas Avenarius filed this editorial for centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung (1/28): "When it comes to the waging of wars, internal security, and Russia's global role, former KGB officer Vladimir Putin always finds clear words. But if urgent economic questions are discussed, he shows a rather restrained attitude. To put it more briefly: He remains silent. Up until today, we have still been waiting for clear economic decrees of the new man in the Kremlin. His output is also meager when it comes to issues such as the rule of law, democratization, and a reform of the constitution. Instead, he and his generals are working for a new military doctrine for Russia in the new millennium. Maybe politicians such as Secretary of State Albright should be more restrained before calling Putin a 'determined reformer.'

"Reforms in the chaotic Russia require more than new tanks and guns. And the civil society that would come along with it would not be bad for Russia either."

"Putin Not A Comfortable Co-Player"

Karl Grobe opined in right-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau (1/28): "After the old, weak, faltering, dear Boris Yeltsin, someone has taken over his position who is strong, healthy, determined and maybe not dear. He will be confirmed by the voters who rightfully demand leadership, and after the restoration of dignity, they want their salaries to be paid on time, and they want law and order. But for the rest of the world, for the CIS neighbors, and for some other regions in Russia, Putin will not become a comfortable co-player. As from today, we have to consider him a man to be seriously reckoned with."

"EU Giving Putin A Chance For What?"

Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger held in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (1/24): "The EU is planning to give Putin, the supreme commander in the Chechen war, a chance. But what for? To urge him to heed European admonitions and stop the military activities [in Chechnya]?... This offer is not a generous offer. It is the factual confession that the EU and its member states, although they consider themselves Russian partners, have little or no influence in Moscow and on Russia's policy. Yeltsin's successor is using the military instrument because he hopes to achieve several power policy goals at once. Sanctions are likely not to impress him. This is why the European view is not far away from reality when they say that it would not result in anything if they continued to threaten to use blunt weapons. But the whole matter continues to remain depressing. Russia is waging a war in northern Caucasus, and the European states are trying to get out of the affair by saying that the whole matter is a 'difficult tightrope act.'"

"Moscow Listens To Nobody"

Manfred Quiring judged in right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin (1/24): "Russia does not want anybody to tell it what it has to do in the Chechen war. European politicians may travel to Moscow with the best intentions, but as soon as the talks focus on a stop of fighting in Chechnya...the Russian answer is 'nyet.'... It is not true that there are no other means to influence Russia. Economic levers, Moscow's suspension from the Council of Europe, are available instruments. However...it is doubtful whether these would have any effect. The current patriotic spirit in Russia can hardly be impressed by Western sanctions. But hardly any politicians in Europe...are willing to take a more confrontational course. The message which [German Foreign Minister] Fischer left in Moscow was that a few thousand Chechens are not important enough to jeopardize the important relations with Moscow."

"Grozny"

Werner Adam had this to say in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (1/19): "The Russian military has now again predicted the capture of Grozny in the coming three to four days. But even if they succeeded this time, an end to the war would not be in sight. The war would be continued as a guerrilla war and shift to the Chechen mountainous region of the Caucasus were the rebels have advantages over the Russian forces. For Vladimir Putin, however, who owes his popularity and his good prospects for a presidential victory to his military activities against the Chechens, the capture of Grozny would be of enormous political significance. He could now infer that, with the capture of Grozny, the small Caucasian republic has again become a member of the Russian Federation, since his main goal is to show his Russian compatriots Russia's new 'greatness.'"

ITALY: "Disagreement Over Chechnya, Missiles Between Putin, Albright"

Leading, rightist opposition Il Giornale filed from Moscow (2/3): "Having agreed to disagree, Secretary Albright and Acting President Putin yesterday managed, nonetheless, to lay the basis for a 'global partnership' between Moscow and Washington for the post-Yeltsin era. The talks at the Kremlin...did not lead to any rapprochement on the Chechen crisis or the controversial American project for the creation of a 'space shield,' but they enabled Albright to describe her interlocutor as 'an extremely frank person, well-informed and willing to resolve problems,' even if, of course, he is 'a Russian patriot.'"

"A Decisive Moment?"

Alberto Stabile filed from Moscow for left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (2/2): "On the one side, the Chechens are trying to transform a moment of clear difficulty into a victory.... On the other, the Russians are interested in transforming the battle for Grozny into a decisive moment for the outcome of the whole conflict: They do need need a clear-cut victory to present to domestic and international public opinion.... Indeed, is it possible to proclaim a victory if the enemy withdraws?... In any case, beyond the maneuvering of respective disinformation efforts, the impression is that the war has entered a new stage...but this does not mean the end of it. If it is true that the rebels left Grozny...they just withdrew from a city they could not defend any longer, and are now gathering in the mountains once again in order to continue the war in guerrilla-like fashion.... And then they might return--as they did for years ago."

"Victory Imminent"

Anna Zafesova noted from Moscow in centrist, influential La Stampa (2/2): "Paid for with hundreds and thousands of civilian lives, victory in Grozny seems imminent."

"No Sanctions"

Rossella Ripert noted in pro-DS (leading government party) L'Unita' (1/21): "Moscow knows that there will not be Western sanctions, as the chief of the Council of Europe's delegation has also confirmed. For now, Putin has been given 'carte blanche.' But he has to move quickly."

"In 'Realpolitik' Fashion"

Fabrizio Dragosei's report from Moscow in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera said (1/21): "Italian Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini, the first foreign minister of a NATO country to meet with Vladimir Putin, paved the way for what appears to be an 'adjustment,' if not a revision, of the Western position toward Russia and the war in Chechnya--in 'realpolitik' fashion.... The Europeans, but also the Americans, have apparently decided to soften their language toward Moscow and to give Putin the benefit of the doubt, no longer insisting on the fact that the Russian military intervention in Grozny is unacceptable for the international community.... The Italian foreign minister reiterated the doubts of the Italian government and Europe, in general, about the military campaign in Chechnya, but he also showed his willingness to listen carefully to Moscow's arguments."

BULGARIA: "Washington's Pressure Tactics"

Socialist, opposition party Duma commented (2/2): "Albright aloofly said that Russia has isolated from the world with its military operation in Chechnya. Firstly, isolationism is an American and not a Russian foreign policy attribute. Secondly, Albright keeps forgetting that just like during the war against Yugoslavia, America and its satellites are not the world. The U.S. double standard is well known to the world. But this doesn't mean that it has to be accepted by the world and by Russia in particular, because no one likes to be pressured."

CZECH REPUBLIC: "Raise The Flag!"

Intellectual Lidove noviny (2/2) had this piece by Ondrej Stindl: "The Russian army has probably taken control of Chechnya's capital, its defenders escaped with heavy losses.... Politicians from democratic countries will express their outrage over the course of the conflict, proportional to their fear of Russian threat. On the same note, media will follow the war with abstract interest--why agitate the public against something we cannot influence, right? Anyway, its the second war in Chechnya--a rerun--and the audience is looking for premiere news."

HUNGARY: "West Is Waiting"

Gabor Stier commented in pro-government Magyar Nemzet (2/3): "Since Putin's support is still in correlation with the proceedings in Chechnya, in his fast-approaching campagin he needs to show results in the war. Helplessness and lack of results could discredit Putin's promises aimed at strengthening the state.... The West, and first of all Washington--aside from using tough words--is waiting, because its basic interest is to keep Russia together and to see its predicted strengthening."

POLAND: "Mecca-Like Moscow"

Krystyna Szelestowska wrote in leftist Trybuna (2/1): "Russia's capital has been a Mecca for the world's politicians over the last dozen or so days.... Madeleine Albright's...statements prior to her Moscow visit, as well as other voices of White House officials, indicate unequivocally that while Washington harshly criticizes Russian leaders for...Chechnya, it will try to avoid further exacerbating its relations with Russia. Washington will strive for improving U.S.-Russia relations."

SPAIN: "The Fall Of Grozny"

Barcelona's centrist La Vanguardia commented (2/2): "Grozny's occupation by Russian troops has been a turning point in the Chechen conflict, the latest episode in a war that Chechen rebels have been fighting against Russian domination for 200 years.... Everything would seem to indicate that the principal beneficiary of all this will be interim President Putin. Yeltsin's heir remains an enigma...but in the absence of a better alternative, the West can feel relieved now if Grozny's fall means the end of the war and if it paves Putin's way to the presidency."

SWITZERLAND: "EC Too Lenient On Warlord Putin"

Prominent, center-right, German-language Neue Zuercher Zeitung opined (2/2): "The European Council has criticized Russia's assault on Chechnya and called for peace and negotiations between the opponents by April, but it has not threatened concrete sanctions if Russia fails to comply with this request. The April deadline would appear to be a tacit and macabre acknowledgement that the Chechnya conflict is indeed Putin's war. Presidential elections, which Putin is widely expected to win thanks to the popularity gifted to him by the war, are on March 26th. By putting off sanctions till April, the European Council is fitting in nicely with Putin's ice-cold calculations. Sanctions would be largely symbolic, since everybody knows that communication with Moscow has to be maintained, but being ready to talk to Putin is not the same as letting him get away with murder. Unless Putin really does start talking to the Chechen leaders, bodies like the European Council must back up their rebukes with proper sanctions."

TURKEY: "Russia's Role In The Caucasus"

Semih Idiz wrote in tabloid Star (1/27): "The CIS summit once again proved that things can change in the Caucasus at any time.

"It is not right to agree with some observers' comments that the CIS summit did not produce any concrete results, because in this summit Russia has proven its dominance over the Caucasus countries.... Azerbaijan set an especially interesting example: The Azeri president recently said that Azerbaijan is ready to set aside a military base for the United States and also demonstrated a clear anti-Moscow stance.... However, during the CIS summit we saw a completely different picture: Georgia proposed that Russia assume the CIS chairmanship and others enthusiastically supported the idea."

EAST ASIA

AUSTRALIA: "An Unwinnable War"

The liberal Canberra Times featured an opinion piece by Gwynne Dyer (1/20): "Putin is intelligent enough to know that this war is ultimately unwinnable. It is essentially a gigantic publicity stunt, and if he made it safely into the presidency he would probably then wind it down again as fast as he could."

CHINA: "Albright Shows Tough Stance In Russia"

The official Beijing Morning Post (Beijing Chenbao, 2/2) observed: "Madeleine Albright has constantly imposed pressure on Russia over the Chechnya issue during her Moscow visit. Her open confrontation with the Russian foreign minister at a joint press conference gave full play to the tough stance of America's hawkish forces."

THAILAND: "Putin's Choices Will Determine The Future"

The lead editorial of the independent, English-language Nation commented (1/16): "Ultimately, Putin is going to have to face up to an unavoidable truth: The war in Chechnya can only be resolved through negotiations with the breakaway territory's elected president, Aslan Maskhadov, about some form of devolution. If Maskhadov wants to live up to his claims of looking after the best interests of the clannish, feuding Chechens, he too must find a way to curb the Islamic militancy that triggered the second war with Moscow."

SOUTH ASIA

BANGLADESH: "Moscow Should Recognize Chechnya's Independence"

Opposition, Bangla-language Dinkal commented (1/31): "President Clinton has categorically said that the campaign in Chechnya is becoming suicidal for Russia. Kofi Annan also expressed concern for the innocent people of Chechnya.... The world's conscience stands as a witness to the repression and genocide that have been carried out by the Russian army in Chechnya since 1991. The United States, the chieftain of the world, and the UN did not utter a single word at the beginning.... The Russian intransigence may create a protracted war like the situation that exists in Bosnia and Palestine. Moscow should realize this and recognize Chechnya's independence quickly."

PAKISTAN: "A Russian Victory?"

An editorial in the center-right national Nation said (2/3): "Moscow should reflect on the question whether the control of the key square of Minutka, or for that matter of the capital itself...was worth the price of its own losses and the suffering and death of the Chechens. Taking pride and ego to such brutal heights while confronting a much weaker and smaller enemy may secure the position of Vladimir Putin...in the forthcoming election, but can in no way earn him and his country respect and dignity in the eyes of the international community....

"Now that it has satisfied its ego, the best way out of the impasse which Moscow has created for itself is for it to follow the counsel of world leaders and reach a negotiated settlement with representatives of the Chechens who in this age of awakening cannot be denied their due rights."

"Albright's Rhetoric And Washington's Duplicity"

The rightist Pakistan Observer held (2/2): "The U.S. Secretary of State has ironically chosen to visit Moscow for talks with the Russian leaders at a time when Chechnya...is about to fall.... Albright seems to have woken up to the Chechens' misery only after the process of their annihilation was about complete, obviously in line with the United States' tacit of support for the Russian military aggression on the pretext of the so-called terrorism. Strangely, Washington is engaged against Muslim Afghanistan and Iraq, Moscow is in the process of destroying Muslim Chechnya, and India has unleashed a brutal campaign against Muslim Kashmir. It is not a coincidence that Muslims are being simultaneously targeted by the United States, Russia and India. It seems to be a definite planned conspiracy to eliminate Muslims from the face of the earth."

SRI LANKA: "The Capture Of Grozny"

Vernon L.B. Mendis wrote in the government owned and controlled, English-language weekly Sunday Observer (1/16): "Chechnya is now the key to Putin's chances of becoming president.... He may have no choice but to go all out for the capture of Grozny, hopefully accomplishing it without incurring a disaster."

MIDDLE EAST

BAHRAIN: "Begin A Civilized Dialogue"

Semi-independent Akhbar Al-Khalij front-paged this editorial (1/18) by Chief Editor Hilal Al-Shaiji: "Because of its barbaric war against Chechnya, Russia lost the sympathy of the whole world, angered Arab and Islamic publics.... The best way to restore friendship [between Russia] and the Arab and Islamic worlds is to stop the destruction and genocide and begin a civilized dialogue with the Chechen leaders."

EGYPT: "Cursed Be Those Russians"

Kamal Abdel Raouf averred in pro-government weekly Akhbar Al Yom (1/29): "I salute the men of Chechnya, the heroes of Grozny, who have stood in the face of the Russian army for six months.... Cursed be those Russians, who...emerged as no less evil than the U.S. and Israeli war-mongers.... They want to prove that they continue to be a superpower, even at the expense of a Muslim nation."

KUWAIT: "A U.S. Conspiracy Policy"

Independent Al-Anba (1/21) had this piece by Ahmad Al-Shahoomi: "Sometimes we believe in the conspiracy policy.... I do not see the conflict in Chechnya as far from this theory. I just wonder where the new game will be, and through what new medium will America involve Russia in battles which will prevent it from joining the European community?"

AFRICA

BURKINA FASO: "Grozny: How To Get Out Of The Mess"

Independent Le Pays carried this column (1/20): "The humanitarian situation is more and more catastrophic, and the silence of the West is becoming indecent, at the risk of reinforcing the thesis of a double standard (allusion to Kosovo)."

WESTERN HEMISPHERE

ARGENTINA: "Good News For Putin"

Leon Bastidas, leading Clarin's Moscow-based correspondent, commented (2/2): "The good news from the front line couldn't come at a better time for the Kremlin. The bad news from the past weeks regarding the stalemated situation of the federal troops in Grozny...and the growing number of casualties among Russian soldiers had started to undermine the people's support for the war in Chechnya. The bad luck of the military campaign even affected the popularity of Russia's interim president."

BRAZIL: "Putin's Alarming Russia"

Center-right O Estado de S. Paulo told readers (1/30): "The optimistic military promise [anti-guerrilla operations in Chechnya] as well as the amazing political settlement [powersharing with Communists] are part of Vladimir Putin's strategy to win the March elections by a smashing majority, which will enable him to install a new autocracy in the Kremlin. According to Putin, even in a democratic regime, Russia needs a strong and centralized government.... It is not impossible that [Russia] will once again constitute a threat to peace worldwide."

##

For more information, please contact:

U.S. Department of State

Office of Research

Telephone: (202) 619-6511

10/29/99

# # #