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Caspian Projects III

Reasonable argumentation of an American, Jeoffrey Kemp, published in Interfax-AiF (Nos. 1-2; January 1-18, 1998) proves the fact that oil is not the main, though important, reason for the attacks upon the Caspian region and the Caucasus.

Reference. Jeoffrey Kemp, director of regional security programmes of the Nixon centre "For Peace and Freedom," former special assistant to the US President. His report on strategic policy in respect of the Persian Gulf and the Caspian region was published in Russia. The name of the report is "Energy Superbowl" which can be literally translated as "Energy final." It's important to point out that "Superbowl" means cup final of the American football, which is played, as everybody knows, with an oval ball.

In his report Kemp enclosed in one oval ("strategic energy ellipse") the Caspian region and the Persian Gulf. The southern part of Russia, western parts of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenia, practically the whole territories of Iran and the UAE, northern parts of Oman and Yemen, eastern parts of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey and Georgia, Kuwait, Armenia and Azerbaijan were all enclosed into this ellipse. 70% of the world's explored oil and 40% of gas reserves fall into the share of these regions on the whole. But, according to Kemp, "the Persian Gulf is much more important as the source of energy raw materials than the Caspian region. Speaking of its reserves, the Persian Gulf has up to 600 billion barrels of oil and 1,600 trillion cubic foot of natural gas. And revision of these figures results in their gradual increase."

As to the Caspian hydrocarbon reserves, experts haven't come to a common point of view yet. Assessments of the reserves vary from 30 to 200 billion barrels of oil. The figure of 90 billion barrels appears most frequently, which is equal to the confirmed oil reserves of Kuwait. But since the Caspian area is 170,000 square miles, further reconnoitre may significantly increase oil reserves there. As to its oil reserves, Kemp also considers Iraq a dark horse, which, according to a number of experts, may become the second Saudi Arabia.

Kemp believes that no matter how big their reserves are, Caspian nations will have to make significant investments into construction of pipelines. The Asia-Pacific Region (APR) will remain the major oil consumer in future and the Caspian nations will inevitably encounter geopolitical difficulties, while trying to deliver their carbohydrates there. Unlike the Caspian region, the Persian Gulf is a site ready for export. In a sense, even Russian Siberian oil is easier to transport to the APR.

As can be understood from Kemp's arguments, Caspian oil is an important though not the main factor of Western expansion carried out in this region with the involvement of Islamic nations.

By the way, Americans forecast that the Caspian region nations will not resist the temptation of spending their "petrodollars" on building up their military power. As it follows from the article in Izvestia (28.05.98), the James Baker Institute prepared a report, in which such a development of events is considered the most probable. Funds, raised from the sale and transportation of oil, according to the authors of the report, may be spent on buying new armaments by young, though ambitious states. It will lead to the region's destabilisation.

In relations to this, the authors refer to the unresolved nature of the Nagorny Karabakh problem, the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict, Chechnya's claims for independence and its attempts to obtain an outlet to the sea and play a more important role in the Caucasus, to the threat of Moslem fundamentalism and, of course, to the Irani factor.