DATE=2/29/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SUDAN'S WAR
NUMBER=5-45539
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Sudan's foreign minister says his government
is ready for unconditional talks with the exiled
opposition, a first step toward ending the seventeen-
year civil war that has convulsed the North African
country. Similar statements have been issued before,
but this one may be more serious. Analysts say a split
in Sudan's leadership has opened the way for change.
VOA's Ed Warner reports their views of the
longstanding conflict.
TEXT: Just end the war in Sudan, says John Voll.
Everything depends on that - stopping human rights
abuses and the slave trade, reviving the economy and
averting famine, reconciling north and south Sudan and
establishing, if not democracy, at least a more humane
regime.
Addressing the Middle East Institute in Washington
(late last week), Professor Voll of Georgetown
University said a military solution of the seventeen
year war is not possible. Despite outside help,
including some from the United States, the southern
rebels cannot win. Neither can the government in
Khartoum. It is a costly stand-off.
Now he says there is an opportunity to end the war
because of a split in Sudan's leadership. President
Omar Beshir, the political leader, has broken with
Hasan al-Turabi, the spiritual leader. It was a genial
coup, says Professor Voll. Nothing more lethal was
hurled than press releases.
Al-Turabi accuses the President of deserting his
Islamic principles and trying to separate religion
from state. But he has been banned from saying this in
front of the Presidential palace.
During this period of change, says Professor Voll,
people were shaken. They started having choices and
reconsidering their positions:
// Voll act //
The government in Khartoum is reassessing
priorities, the definition of structures, trying
to figure out what is the next step. And there
have been discussions with northern opposition
political leaders that have resulted in a draft
agreement as a way of reintegrating northern
opposition politicians into the political
system.
// Voll act //
Mansoor Ijaz is chairman of a New York investment bank
and has participated in talks between the United
States and Sudan. He thinks Turabi, despite his
exalted Islamic vision, is a spent force. His vision
has collapsed with his power.
That makes it easier for others who do not share that
vision to do business with Sudan. With President
Bashir firmly in control, says Mr. Ijaz, Sudan no
longer appears to be an Islamist state on the march in
search of converts:
// Ijaz act //
I do not think anyone here in the United States
that makes policy looks at Bashir as a
philosophical Islamic zealot who cannot be
brought around or you cannot do business with
him. They look at Turabi that way, but they do
not look at Bashir that way. So I think there is
a sea-change in thinking going on, and it would
not surprise me to have our diplomats back in
the Sudan before the Clinton Administration
leaves office.
// end act //
In something of a shift, the United States has
criticized the southern rebels for trying to gain
control of international relief agencies in their
area. In response, about a dozen agencies are leaving
Sudan at a time of widening famine.
Professor Voll says he expects more flexibility in U-S
policy than he has seen in the past. He believes
Khartoum has tried to meet U-S demands on terrorism,
like expelling Venezuelan born Carlos "The Jackal",
who was responsible for hijacking, hostage-taking and
innumerable murders.
// Voll act //
Sudan periodically, in the last decade, has
taken specific, important if symbolic actions to
try to show it is doing something about it, and
the response always was, "Well, that is nice,
but it is not enough. So we are not going to
change at all."
// end act //
Rather than change, notes Professor Voll, the United
States bombed a pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum on
the mistaken assumption it was producing poison gas.
Despite this mishap, he says there is still much good
will toward the United States if it chooses to engage,
rather than isolate Sudan (Signed)
NEB/EW/ENE/PT
29-Feb-2000 16:46 PM EDT (29-Feb-2000 2146 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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