DATE=2/15/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SERBIA ON THE BRINK
NUMBER=5-45462
BYLINE=PAMELA TAYLOR
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The recent assassination of two men close to
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has dramatized
what seems to be a climate of increasing anarchy and
murder in Serbia today. The question is whether the
killings are a sign of an even more brutal crackdown
on the Serbian people or an indication that Mr.
Milosevic is in trouble. V-O-A's Pamela Taylor has a
background report from Washington.
TEXT: The slaying earlier this month of Yugoslav
Defense Minister Pavle Bulatovic shocked many people
who were not all that surprised by the murder only
weeks earlier of a Serb militia leader and war crimes
suspect known as Arkan. The difference is that Mr.
Bulatovic was a close ally of President Milosevic.
Mr. Milosevic's government has accused moderates in
Montenegro (Serbia's sister republic in Yugoslavia)
and journalists with ties to the West of being behind
the assassination. But Belgrade journalist, Stojan
Cerovic, who recently arrived in Washington as a
visiting fellow with the U-S Institute of Peace, says
the only one to benefit from such murders is Slobodan
Milosevic:
/// CEROVIC ACT ///
I do believe that he will try to exploit these
murders and that's why there is some reason to
believe that people close to him are really
involved in these assassinations. I guess he is
now basically trying to create this atmosphere,
this climate of insecurity and chaos and anarchy
in order to be able to say one day, "OK, now we
can't have elections."
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Cerovic says recent comments by Serbia's deputy
prime minister (Voijslav Seselj) threatening
journalists with ties to the West have heightened the
climate of fear in Belgrade. A bodyguard to Mr.
Seselj, who led the notorious White Eagle
paramilitaries during the conflicts with Croatia and
Bosnia was recently shot and seriously wounded.
Stojan Cerovic says everyone in Belgrade is afraid
these days -- ordinary people and those in power:
/// CEROVIC ACT ///
Fear is growing more than anger and I'm afraid
people are feeling more and more helpless,
although you can never tell. We had in Belgrade
three years ago huge rallies lasting three
months and we had the same desperate atmosphere
then. So you can never tell. The Milosevic
regime looks very strong, but then it could fall
in a very brief period.
/// END ACT ///
Other Balkan analysts in the United States agree with
Mr. Cerovic's assessment that the recent killings
could indicate an internal power struggle inside the
Milosevic government. One of them is former State
Department official, John Fox, who says threats are
often issued by those who are themselves afraid:
/// FOX ACT ///
Fear cuts in different directions. We've seen
fear in a variety of countries with repressive
regimes in recent years and there may be fear
within the regime. It's probably true that the
more fearful the regime is the more fear they
seek to instill in the population. But there's
also a lot of anger in Serbia and I think it's a
question of how much strength the Serbian people
and opposition have and their solidarity in this
moment will be crucial. And there are many more
signs of that solidarity now and that has to
have the regime worried.
/// END ACT ///
Serbia's fragmented opposition parties have come
together on a platform for early elections at the
legislative level. But so far, the government has not
agreed. The United States has said it would push for
a lifting of economic sanctions against Yugoslavia
only after free and fair elections are held in Serbia.
Janusz Bugaiski of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington says the recent
assassinations in Belgrade might have a positive side:
/// BUGAISKI ACT ///
If indeed the circle is narrowing within (Mr.)
Milosevic's immediate sphere, and there are
increasing turf battles between politicians, or
between Milosevic himself and people he wants
bumped off, that indicates to me that the regime
may indeed be on its last legs. In that sense,
I would say that Serbian politics is beginning
to implode. If there are assassinations of
their own people, that indicates to me that the
end of the regime is probably in sight.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Bugaiski says the affect on Serbia of the recent
death of President Franjo Tudjman in neighboring
Croatia should not be minimized. He says Slobodan
Milosevic was much more comfortable with a fellow
nationalist in Zagreb than he will be with the
democratic forces voted into power earlier this month.
(Signed)
NEB/PAM/JP
15-Feb-2000 15:14 PM EDT (15-Feb-2000 2014 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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