DATE=2/10/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=LEBANON RAID / ARAB REACT
NUMBER=5-45427
BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB
DATELINE=CAIRO
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The Israeli raids in Lebanon have drawn
widespread condemnation from leaders in the Arab
world, and concern among political analysts that the
military action may further harm the stalled peace
negotiations between Israel and its Arab neighbors. V-
O-A Correspondent Scott Bobb reports from our Middle
East Bureau in Cairo.
TEXT: Arab condemnation of the Israeli raids on
Lebanon has been swift and sharp. The Secretary-
General of the Arab League, Esmat Abdel-Meguid, calls
it a criminal act that violates all international
laws.
/// ABDEL-MEGUID ACT ///
That's a terrible action taken by the Israeli
government. It's responsible for committing this
crime. They are occupying Lebanese territory and
we must be clear that the Lebanese are entitled
to defend their territory against any
occupation.
/// END ACT///
The condemnation by the Arab League has been echoed by
the Islamic Organization and the governments of Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, among others. All
express outrage over the attacks against civilian
targets in Lebanon and call on the international
community to pressure the Israeli government to stop
them.
The raids came after a number of Israeli soldiers in
recent days were killed in southern Lebanon by
Hezbollah guerrillas, who are backed by Syria.
Analysts in the region view the raids as a dangerous
escalation. They say this action has ended the Arab
good will toward Prime Minister Ehud Barak that
followed his election last year after three years of
confrontation under the government of Benjamin
Netanyahu.
A political science professor at the American
University of Cairo, Mona Makram-Ebeid, says the raids
come as a blow to the hope that Prime Minister Barak
would be different from his predecessor.
/// FIRST MAKRAM-EBEID ACT ///
(Prime Minister) Barak, whom everyone wanted to
see as a different person than (former Prime
Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu, what we are seeing
is he is talking peace and he is acting brutal.
So there is a great deal of consternation and
anxiety, and also a great deal of anger.
///END ACT///
Another political science professor at the American
University of Cairo, Professor Walid Kazziha, says one
reason behind the Israeli show of force is domestic
pressure from Israeli public opinion and members of
Mr. Barak's coalition government. Professor Kazziha
acknowledges Mr. Barak needs political support to stay
in power, but he says he should prepare his
constituency for the sacrifices that will be needed to
make headway in the peace negotiations.
/// FIRST KAZZIHA ACT ///
I think [Mr.] Barak did not do his homework with
his own constituency. I think he's not leading
that constituency as much as he is being led by
it.
/// END ACT ///
Many Arab observers believe the main reason for the
show of force in southern Lebanon is to pressure Syria
to make concessions in the peace negotiations, which
resumed last month after a three-year break. Observers
note the conflict in southern Lebanon was relatively
subdued while Syria and Israel were talking, but
escalated after these talks collapsed.
/// OPT ///
Professor Makram-Ebeid says the escalation in southern
Lebanon is an Israeli tactic to draw concessions from
Syria, which has demonstrated some influence over
Hezbollah.
/// SECOND MAKRAM-EBEID ACT///
They (the Israelis) are using the withdrawal
from Lebanon as a pressure card on the Syrian
negotiations, which of course the Arab parties
are not prepared to accept.
/// END ACT ///
Prime Minister Barak is under pressure from
Israeli public opinion to withdraw Israeli troops from
southern Lebanon. And during his campaign he said if
necessary he would do so unilaterally, that is without
a peace agreement with Lebanon and Syria.
Professor Kazziha says Israel should realize, however,
that a unilateral withdrawal from southern Lebanon
will not end the confrontation.
/// SECOND KAZZIHA ACT ///
The key to withdrawal from Lebanon is the Golan
Heights, is Damascus. And if he simply withdraws
from south Lebanon, he will be pursued by
Hezbollah and others will be encouraged too, and
he will be in a worse mess perhaps than he is in
today.
/// END ACT ///
/// END OPT ///
Professor Makram-Ebeid says if the escalation
continues it could spell the end of the Middle East
peace process, which is already stalled by a deadlock
in Israeli negotiations with Syria and the
Palestinians.
Professor Kazziha says, however, the dynamics of the
confrontation in southern Lebanon may help Israel and
Hezbollah hammer out a compromise, like the one four
years ago that ended attacks against civilians. Or he
says it may bring Israel to the realization that the
only solution is to withdraw from the Golan Heights.
At the moment, however, the escalation in southern
Lebanon is raising concern, not hope, for the Middle
East peace process. (Signed)
NEB/SB/GE/gm
10-Feb-2000 15:56 PM EDT (10-Feb-2000 2056 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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