DATE=2/9/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=LEBANON RAID / ARAB REACT
NUMBER=5-45417
BYLINE=SCOTT BOBB
DATELINE=CAIRO
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: The Israeli raid in Lebanon has drawn
widespread condemnation from leaders in the Arab
world, and concern among political analysts that it
may further harm the stalled peace negotiations
between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Correspondent
Scott Bobb reports from our Middle East Bureau in
Cairo.
TEXT: Arab condemnation of the Israeli raids on
Lebanon has been swift and sharp. The Secretary-
General of the Arab League, Esmat Abdel-Meguid, called
it a criminal act that violates all international
laws.
/// ABDEL-MEGUID ACT ///
That is a terrible action taken by the Israeli
government. It is responsible for committing
this crime. They are occupying Lebanese
territory and we must be clear that the Lebanese
are entitled to defend their territory against
any occupation.
/// END ACT ///
The condemnation by the Arab League has been echoed by
the Islamic Organization and the governments of Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, among others. All
have expressed outrage over the attacks against
civilian targets in Lebanon and call for the
international community to pressure the Israeli
government to stop them.
The raids were staged after a number of Israeli
soldiers died in recent days in southern Lebanon
during attacks by Hezbollah guerrillas, who are backed
by Syria.
Analysts in the region view the raids as a dangerous
escalation. They say it has ended the Arab goodwill
toward Prime Minister Ehud Barak that followed his
election last year after three-years of confrontation
under the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.
A Political Science professor at the American
University of Cairo, Mona Makram-Ebeid, says the raids
come as a blow to the hopes that Prime Minister Barak
would be different from his predecessor.
/// MAKRAM-EBEID ACT ///
(Prime Minister) Barak, whom everyone wanted to
see as a different person than (former Prime
Minister) Netanyahu, what we are seeing is he is
talking peace and he is acting brutal. So there
is a great deal of consternation and anxiety and
also a great deal of anger.
/// END ACT ///
Another political science professor at the American
University of Cairo, Professor Walid Kazziha, says one
reason behind the Israeli show of force is domestic
pressure from Israeli public opinion and members of
Mr. Barak's coalition government. Professor Kazziha
acknowledges Mr. Barak needs political support to stay
in power, but he says he should prepare his
constituency for the sacrifices that will be needed to
make headway in the peace negotiations.
/// KAZZIHA ACT ///
I think Barak did not do his homework with his
own constituency. I think he is not leading
that constituency as much as he is being led by
it.
/// END ACT ///
Many Arab observers believe the main reason for the
show of force in southern Lebanon is to pressure Syria
to make concessions in the peace negotiations that
resumed last month after a three-year break.
Observers note the conflict in southern Lebanon was
relatively subdued while Syria and Israel were
talking, but escalated after these talks collapsed.
/// OPT ///
Professor Makram-Ebeid says the escalation in southern
Lebanon is an Israeli tactic to draw concessions from
Syria, which has demonstrated some influence over
Hezbollah.
/// MAKRAM-EBEID ACT ///
They (the Israelis) are using the withdrawal
from Lebanon as a pressure card on the Syrian
negotiations, which of course the Arab parties
are not prepared to accept.
/// END ACT ///
Prime Minister Barak is under pressure from Israeli
public opinion to withdraw Israeli troops from
southern Lebanon. During his campaign he said if
necessary he would do so unilaterally, that is without
a peace agreement with Lebanon and Syria.
Professor Kazziha says Israel should realize a
unilateral withdrawal from southern Lebanon will not
end the confrontation.
/// KAZZIHA ACT ///
The key to withdrawal from Lebanon is the Golan
Heights, is Damascus. And if he simply
withdraws from south Lebanon, he will be pursued
by Hezbollah and others will be encouraged too,
and he will be in a worse mess perhaps than he
is in today.
/// END ACT ///
/// END OPT ///
Professor Makram-Ebeid says if the escalation
continues it could spell the end of the Middle East
peace process, which is already stalled by a deadlock
in Israeli negotiations with Syria and the
Palestinians.
But Professor Kazziha says the dynamics of the
confrontation in southern Lebanon may help Israel and
Hezbollah hammer out a compromise, like the one four-
years ago that ended attacks against civilians. Or he
says it may bring Israel to the realization that the
only solution is to withdraw from the Golan Heights.
At the moment the escalation in southern
Lebanon is raising concern, not hope, for the Middle
East peace process. (SIGNED)
NEB/SB/GE/RAE
09-Feb-2000 11:35 AM EDT (09-Feb-2000 1635 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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