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DATE=2/9/2000 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT TITLE=ANGOLA / WARNING NUMBER=5-45415 BYLINE=ALEX BELIDA DATELINE=JOHANNESBURG CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: South Africa is expressing growing concern about the threat posed to regional stability by the ongoing conflict in Angola. The concern continues despite statements by Angolan authorities that their forces are making rapid headway against the UNITA rebel movement led by Jonas Savimbi. Southern Africa Correspondent Alex Belida reports from Johannesburg. TEXT: Angola's state-run news agency this week quotes Defense Minister Kundi Paihama as hailing the current offensive against UNITA by the country's armed forces - an offensive he notes has already resulted in the recapture of long-time rebel strongholds. As Mr. Paihama sees it, such military developments are yielding what he calls positive results inside Angola, and will ultimately bring about benefits for the entire Southern Africa region. But South African leaders appear to be less than reassured by such comments and seem unconvinced that Angola's armed forces have gained the upper hand in the war. Former South African President Nelson Mandela says he is deeply worried that UNITA leader Savimbi seems to have abandoned some of his long-time positions without putting up much resistance. // MANDELA ACT // Now that is a disturbing sign because it seems that UNITA has got a particular tactic and Savimbi is an accomplished, a seasoned guerrilla fighter. // END ACT // // OPT // Mr. Mandela believes UNITA is fully capable of waging a prolonged guerrilla war. // OPT MANDELA ACT // There are vast tracts of areas in Angola where it is just thick forest, where no conventional warfare can be conducted and Savimbi is an expert at that. // END ACT // END OPT // Top South African officials share Mr. Mandela's fears. Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma told reporters this week there can be no military solution to the Angolan conflict. Like Mr. Mandela, she acknowledges UNITA's failure to cooperate with past peace efforts is an obstacle. Despite the Angolan government's opposition to any further negotiations with Mr. Savimbi, she believes there will eventually have to be more talks. // DLAMINI-ZUMA ACT // There will have to be, at some stage, a discussion among Angolans, between Angolans, to find a lasting political solution. // END ACT // In the meantime, Mrs. Dlamini-Zuma and South African Defense Minister Mosiuoa (moh-see-ow-a) Lekota are deeply worried about the Angolan conflict spilling over the border into neighboring Namibia, and the potential that other countries such as Zambia may also be dragged into the war. Mr. Lekota says the fighting, in his words is - too close to our doorstep for comfort. Because of its concerns, South Africa will soon propose the Southern African Development Community, SADC (sah-deck) set up a permanent early-warning system to detect and control potential security problems in the region before they escalate. Mr. Lekota says the system should include, what he terms - mechanisms of intervention. So far there has been no word of reaction to this idea from Angola or other countries. But Mr. Lekota says SADC cannot sit back when there is a crisis in the region. South Africa's sense of urgency appears to be reflected in the sudden announcement (Wednesday) that President Thabo Mbeki has cancelled plans to attend the opening this Friday of a museum honoring former President Mandela. He will instead travel to Zimbabwe for talks on regional issues with President Robert Mugabe, the head of an existing security committee within the SADC group. // REST OPT // Mr. Mbeki's spokesman says there is nothing unusual about the change in plans. But the talks will give the two an opportunity to discuss not only the Angolan crisis but also the conflict - equally disturbing to South Africa - in Congo-Kinshasa. Angola and Zimbabwe, along with Namibia, have sent troops to the Congo to support President Laurent Kabila in his war against rebels backed by Rwanda and Uganda. In a further sign of diplomatic activity, South Africa has disclosed Defense Secretary William Cohen will arrive late Saturday for talks with Mr. Mbeki and other senior officials. Officials say regional security issues will be on the agenda. (SIGNED) NEB/BEL/GE/RAE 09-Feb-2000 10:03 AM EDT (09-Feb-2000 1503 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .





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