DATE=2/9/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=ANGOLA / WARNING
NUMBER=5-45415
BYLINE=ALEX BELIDA
DATELINE=JOHANNESBURG
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: South Africa is expressing growing concern
about the threat posed to regional stability by the
ongoing conflict in Angola. The concern continues
despite statements by Angolan authorities that their
forces are making rapid headway against the UNITA
rebel movement led by Jonas Savimbi. Southern Africa
Correspondent Alex Belida reports from Johannesburg.
TEXT: Angola's state-run news agency this week quotes
Defense Minister Kundi Paihama as hailing the current
offensive against UNITA by the country's armed forces
- an offensive he notes has already resulted in the
recapture of long-time rebel strongholds.
As Mr. Paihama sees it, such military developments are
yielding what he calls positive results inside Angola,
and will ultimately bring about benefits for the
entire Southern Africa region.
But South African leaders appear to be less than
reassured by such comments and seem unconvinced that
Angola's armed forces have gained the upper hand in
the war. Former South African President Nelson
Mandela says he is deeply worried that UNITA leader
Savimbi seems to have abandoned some of his long-time
positions without putting up much resistance.
// MANDELA ACT //
Now that is a disturbing sign because it seems
that UNITA has got a particular tactic and
Savimbi is an accomplished, a seasoned guerrilla
fighter.
// END ACT //
// OPT // Mr. Mandela believes UNITA is fully capable
of waging a prolonged guerrilla war.
// OPT MANDELA ACT //
There are vast tracts of areas in Angola where
it is just thick forest, where no conventional
warfare can be conducted and Savimbi is an
expert at that.
// END ACT // END OPT //
Top South African officials share Mr. Mandela's fears.
Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma told reporters
this week there can be no military solution to the
Angolan conflict. Like Mr. Mandela, she acknowledges
UNITA's failure to cooperate with past peace efforts
is an obstacle.
Despite the Angolan government's opposition to any
further negotiations with Mr. Savimbi, she believes
there will eventually have to be more talks.
// DLAMINI-ZUMA ACT //
There will have to be, at some stage, a
discussion among Angolans, between Angolans, to
find a lasting political solution.
// END ACT //
In the meantime, Mrs. Dlamini-Zuma and South African
Defense Minister Mosiuoa (moh-see-ow-a) Lekota are
deeply worried about the Angolan conflict spilling
over the border into neighboring Namibia, and the
potential that other countries such as Zambia may also
be dragged into the war.
Mr. Lekota says the fighting, in his words is - too
close to our doorstep for comfort.
Because of its concerns, South Africa will soon
propose the Southern African Development Community,
SADC (sah-deck) set up a permanent early-warning
system to detect and control potential security
problems in the region before they escalate. Mr.
Lekota says the system should include, what he terms -
mechanisms of intervention.
So far there has been no word of reaction to this idea
from Angola or other countries. But Mr. Lekota says
SADC cannot sit back when there is a crisis in the
region.
South Africa's sense of urgency appears to be
reflected in the sudden announcement (Wednesday) that
President Thabo Mbeki has cancelled plans to attend
the opening this Friday of a museum honoring former
President Mandela. He will instead travel to Zimbabwe
for talks on regional issues with President Robert
Mugabe, the head of an existing security committee
within the SADC group.
// REST OPT //
Mr. Mbeki's spokesman says there is nothing unusual
about the change in plans. But the talks will give
the two an opportunity to discuss not only the Angolan
crisis but also the conflict - equally disturbing to
South Africa - in Congo-Kinshasa. Angola and
Zimbabwe, along with Namibia, have sent troops to the
Congo to support President Laurent Kabila in his war
against rebels backed by Rwanda and Uganda.
In a further sign of diplomatic activity, South Africa
has disclosed Defense Secretary William Cohen will
arrive late Saturday for talks with Mr. Mbeki and
other senior officials. Officials say regional
security issues will be on the agenda. (SIGNED)
NEB/BEL/GE/RAE
09-Feb-2000 10:03 AM EDT (09-Feb-2000 1503 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
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