DATE=2/8/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=NORTHERN IRELAND - I-R-A WEAPONS
NUMBER=5-45402
BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
/// EDS: This is the second in a two-part
series on the crisis in Northern Ireland. The first
was issued on 2/7/00 as BKG. 5-45394 entitled
"Northern Ireland - Suspension." ///
INTRO: The British government has introduced
legislation to suspend local government authority in
Northern Ireland if the Irish Republican Army does not
begin a process of handing over its weapons. In this
report, former London correspondent Andre de Nesnera
looks at what incentives the I-R-A has to disarm and
asks whether the suspension of the government in
Northern Ireland may lead to more terrorism by
paramilitary groups.
TEXT: The British government is rushing through both
houses of Parliament emergency legislation that could
re-institute direct rule over Northern Ireland at
week's end. This would mean the suspension of the
British province's nine-week-old government and a
temporary end to its experience with limited self-
rule.
The current crisis was sparked by an issue that has
been an obstacle for years - the problem known as
"decommissioning." In other words, how to get
paramilitary groups - such as the Irish Republican
Army - to hand in their weapons.
A recent report by an international commission - led
by retired Canadian general John de Chastelain -
looking into the hand-over of weapons has said the I-
R-A has failed to make any progress on
decommissioning. That prompted David Trimble - leader
of the pro-British Ulster Unionist Party - to threaten
to resign from his post as Northern Ireland's chief
executive. And in an effort to prevent that move, the
British government has introduced legislation to
suspend Northern Ireland's governing institutions -
hence the legislation before Parliament.
The British and Irish governments are also trying to
find a way to prompt the I-R-A into some movement on
decommissioning. But as of yet - no positive response
from the Irish Republican Army.
Brendan O'Leary, Irish expert with the "London School
of Economics," says the definition of decommissioning
is very broad.
/// O'LEARY ACT ///
The paramilitaries are not obligated to
surrender any of their weapons to the British
government or to the Irish government. They are
not even obligated to surrender their weapons to
the international commission overseeing
decommissioning. They are obligated to engage
with the commission and to enable the commission
to verify weapons destruction has taken place.
And that is to take place - it is envisaged -
with other steps taken by the British
government, some of which have already occurred
- police reform - some of which are in the
process of occurring - the removal of troops and
the reduction in the number of troops and the
eventual withdrawal of all troops to Britain.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. O'Leary says "decommissioning" must be seen as a
process of multilateral disarmament rather than simply
a hand-over of guns, bullets and explosives.
But what incentive does the I-R-A have to move toward
disarmament? Experts say if the paramilitary group
does not take positive steps to disarm, then its
political wing - Sinn Fein - could be forced out of
Northern Ireland's government and would lose two
ministerial posts.
Historian Brendan O'Brien, author of the book "The
Long War," says that is a powerful stimulus.
/// O'BRIEN ACT ///
So the incentive, if you like, for the I-R-A, is
that if they don't go the route of at least
dealing seriously with the de Chastelain
commission on decommissioning, then the whole
republican movement stands to go back to the
barricade - to become a protest organization,
and to be isolated from nationalism and probably
the White House (Washington). And they will
have another hill to climb. Whereas as of now,
some serious engagement on decommissioning would
enhance Sinn Fein's standing internationally -
and nationally - and embed them further into the
political institutions in the North and give
them a greater sense of gaining seats in the
Irish Parliament. And they would be on a kind
of political roll that they appeared to be on
before this hiatus was thrown up.
/// End Act ///
In the meantime, the British government is going ahead
with plans to suspend Northern Ireland's government.
Mr. O'Brien does not believe the I-R-A would go back
to violence if suspension occurs. But the threat does
come from splinter groups such as the "Continuity I-R-
A" responsible for the bombing of a hotel in Northern
Ireland (Irvinestown) a few days ago.
Noel Doran is deputy editor of Belfast's daily, "The
Irish Times," espousing the views of the nationalist
community that would like to see a united Ireland.
/// DORAN ACT ///
What we have to worry about is some of the
dissident groups on the republican side who are
not part of the mainstream republican movement
and - although they are very small - have the
capacity to launch attacks. We also have
worries about the loyalist (pro-British
paramilitary groups) side who have maintained
their weaponry despite engaging in cease-fires.
The crucial difference being that the loyalists
and their political representatives are not in
government and the republicans are.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Doran says one cannot say for sure that violence
will not return to Northern Ireland. But he says at
this stage, there is no enthusiasm to go back to the
days of the gun, the bullet and the bomb. Instead, he
says everyone is focusing on political efforts to get
paramilitary groups - beginning with the I-R-A - to
start the process of decommissioning. (Signed)
NEB/ADEN/JP
08-Feb-2000 12:23 PM EDT (08-Feb-2000 1723 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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