DATE=1/29/2000
TYPE=ON THE LINE
TITLE=ON THE LINE: FORMER YUGOSLAVIA'S FUTURE
NUMBER=1-00817
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT=
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
Anncr: On the Line - a discussion of United
States policy and contemporary issues. This week,
"The Future of the Former Yugoslavia." Here is
your host, Robert Reilly.
Host: Hello and welcome to On the Line.
The area comprising the former Yugoslavia has been
plagued over the past decade by wars, ethnic
strife, economic decline and repressive
government. However, several events have taken
place recently that give hope that the cycle of
repression and violence may be broken. On January
3rd, parliamentary elections were held in Croatia
where the ruling party of the late President
Franjo Tudjman was decisively defeated. And
earlier this week, in presidential primary
elections in Croatia, the ruling party, the
Croatian Democratic Union, was again decisively
defeated. A run-off election will be held early
next month between the two democratic presidential
candidates. Also, in Belgrade, for the first time
since the successful street demonstrations in
1996-97, the opposition to President Slobodan
Milosevic, comprising seventeen parties, has
successfully united over a program to call for
early elections this April. If President Milosevic
refuses to accept the call for early elections,
the opposition says it will take to the streets in
March.
Joining me today to discuss the future of the
former Yugoslavia are two experts. Mihajlo
Mihajlov is a former Yugoslav dissident and writer
who was imprisoned under longtime Communist ruler
Josip Broz Tito. He is a senior associate at
George Washington University's program on
transitions to democracy. And Dusko Doder is a
former foreign correspondent for The Washington
Post newspaper and co-author of Milosevic,
Portrait of a Tyrant. Welcome to the program.
We met together four months ago, Mr. Mihajlov, at
which time you gave us a detailed analysis of the
nature of the opposition to Slobodan Milosevic in
Yugoslavia. And you expressed great skepticism
that they might be able to unite. Are you now
encouraged by the recent coalition that has formed
together in Belgrade?
Mihajlov: In fact, it is a very positive step, but
I am still very skeptical because, up to now, it
is unknown who will practically lead this
coalition. It is still the same. The coalition is
divided between two leaders, Vuk Draskovic and
Zorin Djindjic. It is now proposed that there be a
third leader, at least formally. Anyhow, this
year, according to the constitution, an election
has to be held. So it is nothing too much
different if it is several months earlier or
later. It all depends on whether this coalition is
able to bring to the streets millions of people.
Last fall, Zoran Djindjic, who is the leader of
this Coalition for Change, promised this but it
was never accomplished.
Host: But that's because Vuk Draskovic refused
to join them.
Mihajlov: Yes, that is one of the reasons, because
Vuk Draskovic refused to join it.
Host: And why did he refuse?
Mihajlov: Because the Coalition for Change idea
was first to request the resignation of President
Milosevic and then, after that, elections. It was
really unrealistic to request the resignation
first. And Vuk Draskovic was correct that it was
necessary to ask first for elections and to try to
get fair elections. So finally, the Coalition for
Change agrees with this. So now this coalition is
formed on Draskovic's ideas, not Djindjic's.
Host: Dusko Doder, how encouraged are you by
these recent events?
Doder: I am mostly encouraged by developments in
Croatia because, with the death of President
Tudjman, the Croatian Democratic Union practically
collapsed. What we herald now as the great hope of
democracy is the return of the Communists. [The
new prime minister Ivica] Racan and his group, you
know, these are former Communists who have won in
parliamentary elections. In the presidential
elections, I personally kind of like Mr. [Stipe]
Mesic. I've seen him operate in 1991 when he was
the last president of Yugoslavia. He is a man,
unlike most of these former nationalists, with a
certain scope and vision and a good sense of
humor. I am afraid, however, that he may not win
in the run-off.
Host: And Mr. [Drazen] Budisa is his main
opponent?
Doder: Mr. Budisa is a positive figure. He,
however, and Mesic disagree on one of the
principal issues there, and that is to what extent
should the Croatian nation face up to the crimes
that it committed. Just like the Serbs do not want
to face up to the crimes that have been committed
in their name, so the Croats do not want to do
that. Mesic wants to send everybody who is guilty
to The Hague. And Budisa is much more reluctant to
do that.
Host: Don't they both agree, however, upon a
broader program about reintegration into Europe,
application to the E-U, joining the Partnership
for Peace, decentralizing political power in
Croatia, and confining the power of the presidency
in Croatia, which led to Tudjman's authoritarian
rule?
Doder: The key issue on which they agree and
which is the most important is none of those that
you mentioned, however important they are. But it
is the issue of Bosnia: whether the Croats should
continue to maintain a hold on Bosnia and actually
claim part of the Bosnian territory. And on that
issue both of them agree that Bosnia should
actually be detached because that is the condition
for the entry of Croatia into Europe.
Host: Detached, and indeed to stop subsidizing
the Croats inside of Bosnia?
Doder: That's right.
Mihajlov: It is not only a question of subsidizing
Croatian forces there, but also Croats in Bosnia
are involved in Croatian elections. In the first
interview Stipe Mesic gave after his victory
several days ago in the Frankfurter Rundschau, he
stated even further. He said one of the main goals
is, first, to break this isolation of Croatia,
which was not produced by ideological reasons or
by the Croatian Democratic Union, but because they
wanted to steal from and rob the Croatian people.
Second, he said it is absolutely crazy to believe
that Serbs and Croats will always live in these
hostile conditions. He stated, look in Europe -
France and Germany. They were for centuries
enemies and now they are the main powers of a
united Europe. So he is going further and further.
Host: But also have not both of these candidates
said something else remarkable, and that is that
they would allow back into Croatia some of the
several hundred thousand Serbs who were driven out
in the military operation in 1995?
Mihajlov: Yes, but Stipe Mesic is much stronger in
his expression about this, and Budisa is very
moderate and limited. So you can expect that maybe
Croatian Democratic Union members will vote for
Budisa. This is why it is not so sure that Mesic
will win the election. And about the privatization
of the financial and economic sphere, Mesic says,
if he becomes president, he will immediately make
new privatizations. He will check everything that
has happened, investigate everything. Budisa is
not so decisive. He says, yes, there were some
small bad things, but we will collect.
Host: From the perspective of the United States,
according to the United States Department
spokesman, Mr. James Rubin, he said either of
these candidates would be acceptable to the United
States. And what is extraordinary is that it might
represent a landmark change in the Balkans that
could serve as a model for transformation within
Yugoslavia or Serbia. Is that a hope that has any
foundation, Mr. Doder?
Doder: I think so. I think this is a very
positive development. Basically what has happened
is a major change in Croatia which will have an
impact on other areas of former Yugoslavia. But in
particular, I should stress that, if the Croatian
position vis-a-vis Bosnia is changed, it seems to
me that perhaps that will allow for an evolution
of a new Bosnian policy. But we have to wait for
the demise, political or otherwise, of Mr.
Milosevic and of the Bosnian leadership also --
because in Bosnia also you have people who are
clearly Muslim Europeans, it has a strong
intellectual elite, and then you have these people
whose political base is the village. And
unfortunately at this time it is the village that
dictates policy in Bosnia.
Host: There was a very discouraging article in
The Washington Post newspaper last weekend, saying
that the situation within Bosnia-Herzegovina is
basically frozen in time, that economically it is
very corrupt, that unemployment is reaching fifty
percent and that, without the continued presence
of thousands of NATO troops, ethnic strife most
likely would resume, because there has really been
no integration of these groups. Is there a
possible spillover effect from improvements in
Croatia that might help that situation?
Mihajlov: No doubt.
Host: Why no doubt?
Mihajlov: It is a connected situation. For
example, recently, two days after this victory of
Stipe Mesic in the first round, was the dismissal
of the deputy of the minister of defense of
Croatia because he stated that, if Stipe Mesic
were to win the election, the army would not
recognize it. So he was immediately dismissed by
Vlatko Pavletic, who is now temporarily president.
So this deputy minister was from Herzegovina,
together with former minister of defense Sussak.
Many high officers in the Croatian army are from
Herzegovina. So this will have immediate
repercussions. Second, what has happened after the
parliamentary victory of reformist forces is that,
for the first time, Croatia joined seven other
European nations in requesting the lifting of
sanctions against Serbia. It was not lifted, but
for the first time, one week ago, Croatia
requested this. So it is already a very big
change, and, no doubt, the situation in Bosnia-
Herzegovina will depend extremely deeply on what
will happen in Croatia.
Host: Back to Serbia and Yugoslavia for a
moment. The announcement of the seventeen-group
coalition against Milosevic said not only must we
have these early elections and we must recall the
repressive laws against freedom of the press and
against the universities, but as soon as elections
are agreed to, the economic sanctions should be
lifted from Yugoslavia and the territorial
integrity of Yugoslavia should be recognized in
accordance with U-N resolutions, meaning Kosovo
remains a part of the country. Do you see any
problems with those conditions?
Doder: These are the conditions on paper. In
reality, Serbs do not control Kosovo. And it is
going to be very difficult now to reinstate
Serbian control of Kosovo.
Host: But it is interesting that the democratic
opposition is insisting that it still is part of
the country.
Doder: Well, we do too. We have signed agreements
saying that. But I think what we have to keep in
mind is that these grand pronouncements usually do
not work. The Serbian situation has deteriorated
to the point that you have a traumatized nation,
impoverished. It is unable to move or look forward
to anything. I think there has to be some kind of
incident to spark popular revolt. It is not going
to be sparked by a declaration of seventeen
parties because, at this point, it is very unclear
whom they represent. The fact is that there is an
opposition and that there is a discontent. That we
can say. But whether this is an organized unit
that is going to bring down Mr. Milosevic -- if
NATO could not do it with thirty-eight thousand
sorties, what are these people going to do?
Host: I suppose the answer to that would be that
we would find out in a free and fair election. But
can there be one?
Doder: I do not think that in Yugoslavia there
have ever been free and fair elections.
Host: What about in the future?
Doder: Professor [Richard] Pipes makes the
argument recently in a book that there is a
relationship between property and the evolution of
civil societies. And he talks about Russia but it
applies to Serbia too. When you have a population
that for centuries has not enjoyed property and
then you have the last forty years of Communism
when property was destroyed completely, it takes
time. So to think about elections and democracies
at this pint is premature. I think we have to get
rid of Milosevic. The Serb people have to get rid
of Milosevic, face up to what they have done, and
try to evolve some kind of reasonable society. In
Croatia, this is also not a democratic society,
although President Tudjman was our friend. I would
not go that far to say this was a democracy.
Host: Do you agree with that, and what kind of
incident might spark the removal of Milosevic?
Mihajlov: What is most important is that, even if
this coalition gets early elections, it does not
mean that they will win, and not only because of
fraud, but because the opposition political
parties are losing support. So now you have a lot
of grass roots movements, the Serbian civic
parliament, the council of free cities. There are
dozens of grass roots organizations that are not
connected with any political party.
Host: But might not they register that
opposition in the same way as happened in Croatia,
where Tudjman ruled for ten years and won two
presidential elections, and probably no one
suspected, underlying that, the magnitude of the
discontent?
Mihajlov: The main problem is that Vuk Draskovic
cooperated for a while with Milosevic. Zoran
Djindjic, the leader of this Alliance for Change,
he also had some very strange connection with
Milosevic during these demonstrations. And with
this grass-roots movement in south Serbia, I heard
recently, the main request is: "Down with
Milosevic, Draskovic and Djindjic." So do not make
too much of a difference between the leaders of
the opposition and Milosevic. This is a problem.
Host: I'm afraid that's all the time we have
this week. I'd like to thank our guests - Mihajlo
Mihajlov from George Washington University's
Program on Transitions to Democracy; and Dusko
Doder, co-author of Milosevic, Portrait of a
Tyrant - for joining me to discuss the future of
the former Yugoslavia. This is Robert Reilly for
On the Line.
Anncr: You've been listening to "On the Line" - a
discussion of United States policies and
contemporary issues. This is --------.
28-Jan-2000 13:55 PM EDT (28-Jan-2000 1855 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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