DATE=1/27/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=PIPELINE POLITICS
NUMBER=5-45327
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Meetings are underway in Georgia and
Azerbaijan to complete contracts for an oil pipeline
from the Caspian Sea through Turkey to the
Mediterranean. Plans are also being made to link this
project to a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan. These
ambitious undertakings are the subject of much
controversy in the Caucasus region and beyond -
notably in the United States and Russia. V-O-A's Ed
Warner reports on the intense debate over the region's
resources.
TEXT: The future of the Caucasus region could be
determined by the pipelines running through it. Each
country in the region and several outside it have
their own views on how oil and gas should reach the
rest of the world. Where these pipelines are built
will create winners and losers in this multinational
competition.
Vladimir Socor, senior analyst of the Washington-based
Jamestown Foundation, expects construction to start
later this year on the long controversial oil pipeline
from the Caspian through Turkey to the Mediterranean.
It should be completed in three years, he says, along
with a parallel gas pipeline from Turkmenistan:
/// Socor Act ///
The success of these projects would end an
almost century-old Russian stranglehold on the
oil and gas resources of the Caspian. Building
those pipelines would in effect amount to
cutting the Soviet-era umbilical cord which tied
those nations to Russia against their will.
/// End Act ///
Mr. Socor says Russia, while controlling the Caucasus,
failed to develop its oil and gas. Only the West, he
says, can supply the needed know-how.
Mr. Socor concedes Russia will not be happy with this
Western intrusion. But Moscow could be compensated by
oil from Kazakhstan that would pass through a Russian
pipeline to the Black Sea. The west would by no means
have a monopoly on Caspian oil.
Still, Moscow might choose to cause more trouble in
the Caucasus. It has fomented rebellions in the past
and can do so again. Georgia, through which the new
pipeline would pass, is particularly vulnerable. It
blames Moscow for backing the secession of two of its
regions: Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moscow is also
suspected of being behind two assassination attempts
on President Eduard Shevardnadze.
Mr. Socor says the Georgian presidential election in
April may offer Moscow another opportunity:
/// Socor Act ///
President Eduard Shevardnadze has proved a thorn
in the side of Russia's empire restored. There
is nothing that a Moscow hard-liner would like
better than somehow to arrange a scenario under
which Shevardnadze is not re-elected or is
somehow removed from the scene.
/// End Act ///
During the war in Chechnya, Russian troops have
occasionally shelled Georgia, claiming Georgians are
aiding the rebels. Mr. Socor says the United States
and Turkey are providing Georgia with military
assistance.
But what about U-S-Russian relations? asks Tom
Corcoran, executive director of the Eurasia Group, a
consulting firm on the states of the former Soviet
Union. He says they will not be improved by the new
pipeline:
/// Corcoran Act ///
It clearly is meant to weaken the influence of
Russia in the region and therefore, it has to be
regarded as hostile by the Russian Government.
Insofar as we are trying to engage the Russians
and make them believe that we are their allies
and friends, it is counter-productive.
/// End Act ///
Mr. Corcoran also notes the costly pipeline would
require high oil prices over many years to be worth
building. Yet analysts predict a coming oil glut in
the near future and, consequently, lower oil prices.
Some big oil companies prefer a much shorter pipeline
route from Azerbaijan through Iran to the Persian
Gulf, but that is currently prevented by U-S sanctions
on Iran. However, pressures are building to normalize
relations with Tehran, if reformers continue to make
gains.
Mr. Corcoran says a more moderate politics in Iran, if
it occurs, could change U-S opinion:
/// Corcoran Act ///
Certainly, there are lots of congressmen who are
hostile to Iran who would feel very
uncomfortable with any opening to them. On the
other hand, it seems that the administration
believes that now is the time to take a chance
on these new guys, given that all of our major
allies already basically have ties with the
Iranians and are willing to do business with
them.
/// End Act ///
Azerbaijan President Heydar Aliyev is soon to visit
Iran as part of warming relations between the two oil-
rich countries. Experts in Caucasus politics say they
welcome any signs of conciliation among the region's
combative players. (signed)
NEB/EW/JP
27-Jan-2000 15:31 PM EDT (27-Jan-2000 2031 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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