DATE=1/19/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CAUCASUS POWER PLAYS (CQ)
NUMBER=5-45268
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Against fierce resistance, Russian troops have
reached the center of Grozny in Chechnya, but the war
there is not expected to end any time soon. And while
it continues, experts say it creates instability
throughout the Caucasus and jeopardizes Russia's
regional interests, especially its oil business. V-O-
A's Ed Warner reports on how some experts assess the
fallout of Russia's latest war in Chechnya.
TEXT: Russia may be working against its own best
interests by going to war in Chechnya, says Robert
Barylski, professor of international relations at the
University of South Florida and author of "The Soldier
in Russian Politics."
Professor Barylski, who recently visited Russia, says
Moscow exaggerates the threat of militant Islamists
seeking to create a new empire, starting in Chechnya.
He found most Muslims in Russia are moderates who
resent the radical takeover of Chechnya that began
with the incursion into Dagestan last summer.
There are certainly some bizarre characters who talk
of an Islamic reconquest, says Professor Barylski, but
they are few in number:
/// Barylski Act ///
The problem is when one of these people shows up
in your mosque, the authorities hear about it,
and now everybody in your mosque is made
suspect. The general population - non-Muslim -
is ready to believe that every mosque has become
some kind of a secret bunker for the worst
elements.
/// End Act ///
While Moscow is misled by fears about Islam, says
Professor Barylski, it is damaging the prospects of
its oil business in the Caucasus. The pipeline from
oil rich Azerbaijan to a Russian Black Sea port passes
through Chechnya and is now closed down. So Moscow is
building an alternative pipeline to bypass Chechnya
that may be completed in the next few months.
That, too, has its drawbacks, says Robert Ebel,
director of the Energy and National Security Program
at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
in Washington:
/// Ebel Act ///
That pipeline bypass runs through Dagestan, and
Dagestan is not the most stable region in the
world. And the bypass, unfortunately, also
comes close to the border with Chechnya. So the
Chechens may just bide their time and say, "We
will not destroy the pipeline until it is full
of oil, and then we will have a go at it."
/// End Act ///
Professor Barylski says the war brings Turkey more
forcefully into the region. Georgia and Azerbaijan
are worried that Russian troops might move from
Chechnya into the south Caucasus. In response,
Turkish President Suleyman Demirel has just visited
Georgia and proposed a Caucasus security pact. He
also wants to construct a 17-hundred kilometer oil
pipeline from Azerbaijan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan
on the Mediterranean, a project supported by the
United States:
/// Barylski Act ///
That is why the Russians - although they do not
want to talk about this much in public - are
always watching Turkey in the background here
and accusing it of being involved in stirring up
trouble. As long as Turkey wants that big
pipeline to Ceyhan, it does not really have a
national interest in promoting peace in the
north Caucasus.
/// End Act ///
But Robert Ebel says not only the Russians question
such a pipeline. Oil companies are also dubious.
They are not finding and producing as much oil in the
Caspian Sea as expected, and if anything, there is a
coming global oil glut. You do not build a pipeline
in anticipation of oil, says Mr. Ebel. The oil has to
be there:
/// Ebel Act ///
Turkey very much wants a long distance pipeline
and is very much planning on it. But just how
soon that pipeline is going to be built is
difficult for me to say. I think Turkey wants
to start construction as soon as possible, but
you cannot finance an oil pipeline until you
have sufficient oil to put into it, and that oil
is just not available today.
/// End Act ///
However much oil there may be, Professor Barylski says
the answer lies in multiple pipelines built with the
cooperation of all the countries with interests in the
Caucasus. That means first of all, ending the war in
Chechnya. (signed)
NEB/EW/JP
19-Jan-2000 13:04 PM EDT (19-Jan-2000 1804 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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