Military

December 29, 1999

'WORLD WATCHES' AS RUSSIA MOUNTS 'HOLIDAY' OFFENSIVE AGAINST GROZNY

The Russian army's Christmas day assault on the Chechen capital, Grozny, shifted the attention of Russia-watchers from the country's parliamentary election results back to Moscow's "ruthless" war against its breakaway republic. Despite the fighting, a minority of analysts remained rather optimistic about Russia's future and hopeful that the election outcome signaled a trend toward democracy and economic reform. However, the vast majority of observers--including some reformist papers in Moscow--had a more jaundiced view. Many expressed deep concern about the "immature and insecure" state of Russian democracy, arguing that the parliamentary results evince an "aggressive nationalism" and "growing chauvinism"--as borne out by the popular support for the Kremlin's stepped-up offensive in Chechnya. These writers agreed with a London daily's judgment that events in Russia serve as a "reminder on the brink of the millennium that human nature, at least in some parts of the world, has changed little since the time of Ivan the Terrible." Indeed, worried commentators from all regions cast a wary eye toward the former superpower, repeating anew their harsh criticism of Moscow's "murderous violence" and lamenting the West's "indifference" to the plight of the Chechens. Muslim voices from the Middle East and South Asia, in particular, inveighed against what they saw as international apathy toward the "brutal bloodbath" inflicted by the Russians, and called on the "entire Muslim world" to take a "uniform stance" to stop the "Russian aggression." Others in Europe echoed a Brussels pundit's assertion that "indignation about human rights violations" takes a back seat to "political considerations" in Washington and other Western capitals. That said, some maintained that differences on Chechnya will continue to cast a shadow over U.S-Russian relations, undermining Washington's efforts to move forward on other issues, particularly arms control. Highlights follow:

'WHAT KIND OF RUSSIA IS NOW DEVELOPING?': Moscow's unrelenting attacks on Chechnya--and "the Russian people's bloodthirsty relish for the wholesale slaughter of the Chechens"-- prompted several commentators to muse pessimistically about Russian recidivism on the eve of the 21st century. A leading Munich paper contended that "Moscow's rulers are allowing their country to change into the next millennium under the same circumstances that have characterized Russia's policy and history even in the old one, i.e., violence." Russia's war is evidence of a country that has "only lost its red varnish but not its imperial reflex," said another. Others spoke of a "revival of nationalism" and a Russia "about to sacrifice not only thousands of people, but also democratic achievements on the altar of war."

U.S.-RUSSIAN RELATIONS IN THE BALANCE: In comment on U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Talbott's recent visit to Moscow following the Duma elections, media in Russia, Germany and Italy held out little hope for an easing of tension between the U.S. and Russia, given differences between the two over ABM Treaty revisions and "difficult regional issues like Chechnya and Kosovo." A few speculated that possible START II ratification by the Russian parliament could be viewed as a "ray of sunshine in the Russian-American chill" were it not for "the continuing clash over the 'space shield' sought by Washington." Moscow's centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta concluded, "For all their assurances that...they don't intend to slide into confrontation, Russia and the U.S. have been doing exactly that."

EDITORS: Katherine L. Starr and Diana McCaffrey

EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 68 reports from 38 countries, December 20 - 29. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.

EUROPE

RUSSIA: "The War That Never Ended"

Alexander Reutov judged in centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (12/28): "Today one often sees attempts to draw parallels between the Afghan war of 1979-1989 and the current Chechen campaign. It is true that, with some reservations, the events in the North Caucasus in 1994-1996 could be described, rather grandly, 'as the beginning of the end of modern Russia.' This was largely the result of the inept policies of the Russian authorities, the defeat by the Chechens in the media war and, as a consequence, the total rejection of the Russian action by the public at home and many other factors that are only too well known. But the situation today is very different from that of three or four years ago. The war in Chechnya, for now, is being waged by the military and not by the politicians. That provides for Moscow some kind of guarantee against defeat. Especially since latter-day Afghanistan is a vivid illustration of what we and the world can get in Chechnya unless the operation is carried through."

"Washington's Ultimatum To Moscow"

Gennady Khromov argued in neo-communist Pravda (12/28-29): "Washington, in effect, has confronted our country with an ultimatum: Either Russia agrees to a radical revision of the timeless 1972 ABM Treaty or the United States withdraws from it. Last summer the United States adopted a law on the deployment of an ABM system on its territory, something that is prohibited by the treaty. The adoption of the law was argued by reference to a supposed danger of a missile attack by North Korea and some other countries, including Russia. As to the missile threat from 'third' countries, this appears to be very artificial, not to mention the fact that should anything of the sort arise, it could be dealt with by political and diplomatic methods. The real cause of this step was the open pressure by arms-manufacturing companies and interested financial groups."

"From Christmas To Christmas"

Alexander Shumilin wrote in reformist Vedomosti (12/27): "The Russian elections took place at a convenient time for Western politicians--the Christmas holidays spare them the need to assess the results and to make any statements on this matter. The holidays saved the Western heads of state from the possibility of finding themselves in a difficult situation when, on the one hand, their assessments of the regroupment of political forces in Moscow cannot be radiant and optimistic ones (against the background of unceasing criticism of Russia by the Western press) and, on the other hand, any critical remarks about Putin are sure to get a verbal rebuff from Moscow capable of spoiling the holiday mood of their fellow citizens. All the more so that the Putin team, inspired by the election returns, does not intend to make a pause in its work because of Christmas and plans to take some rest only when the Orthodox Christmas comes (two weeks later)."

"Who's The Boss In Russia?"

Anatoly Kostyukov noted in reformist weekly Obshchaya Gazeta (# 51, 12/23): "The 'Kremlin party' did not win the elections because it proved that Putin was better than Primakov and Luzhkov. It is just that by dragging its opponents into a war of attrition, the Kremlin showed that power was on its side. It also felt free to use any means in that war. That peaceful Chechens urge rebels to leave their villages and let in Russian troops does not mean that they like Shamanov better than Maskhadov. It is just that they don't want their homes destroyed."

"U.S. Ready To Extend Truce"

Sergei Guly said in reformist Noviye Izvestiya (12/23): "The United States is ready to extend the truce on the Chechnya information front which was introduced for the period of elections to the Duma. That is the impression the meetings of Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott in Moscow yesterday made on their participants. Next year, with both Russia and the United States facing elections, the current complications between them may seem non-existent. President Clinton is expected to endorse the deployment of an ABM system by June. Russia's strategic forces command has prepared an asymmetrical response to the American 'provocation.'"

"Moscow Has No Choice"

Aleksandr Koretsky pointed out in reformist Segodnya (12/23): "Moscow really has no choice as far as a course of action in Chechnya goes, and no amount of pressure can help it. The outcome of the parliamentary elections is stark testimony to that. The war party came out the big winner, backed by an overwhelming majority of voters. No sanctions or other threats can change that--they will only anger the public."

"Ex-Im Bank's Decision Belies Talbott's Words"

Centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (12/23) had this by Dmitry Gornostayev: "For all their assurances these past two days that they don't intend to slide down into confrontation, Russia and the United States have been doing exactly that. Yesterday Talbott was quite convincing when he insisted that the U.S. leadership did not want to spoil its relations with Moscow, not even over Chechnya. Against that backdrop, the Ex-Im Bank's decision to suspend loan guarantees for the TNK company does not seem quite logical."

"Kremlin Wins In No-Win Situation"

Georgy Bovt commented on page one of reformist Izvestiya (12/22): "Speaking about this parliament, the resident--for the first time since he took office--cannot say that it is hard to work with. In fact, the Kremlin has managed to win in an absolutely no-win situation. As shown by the elections, the administration remained in full control at all times before the poll. At least it had the game go by its rules and plan. Boris Yeltsin must know by now that Vladimir Putin can control the country, government and elections. Probably for the first time in many years, he has no fear of stepping down. The high level of mobilization demonstrated by the ruling elite heralds an effective mechanism to ensure the continuity of the current policies. With the battle over, Yeltsin has good reason to feel like the main and only winner, no matter what veterans or rookies think."

"Democratic Changes Irreversible"

Aleksandr Gamov noted in reformist, youth-oriented Komsomolskaya Pravda (12/22): "The success of Unity and the Rightists must ultimately have confirmed the Guarantor in his conviction that democratic changes in Russia are irreversible and that he has somebody to whom he can turn over power without fearing that it might land in the wrong hands."

"Political System Still Shaky"

Editor-in-chief Viktor Linnik of neo-communist Slovo asserted (12/22-23): "The elections have shown that the political system in Russia is still shaky and that somersaults, sensations, coups and surprises are still possible.... The Duma will have a different, funny political face. Suffice it to say that it has four ex-premiers, in addition to the former chairman of the USSR's Council of Ministers, Nikolai Ryzhkov.

"As shown by the elections, (political) power in Russia is in the hands of the center and of feudal barons, as represented by governors and presidents of all sorts in the provinces."

"Why Russians Vote For Communists"

Official parliamentary Parlamentskaya Gazeta (12/22) pointed out in a comment by Ivan Denisov and Andrei Papushin: "There is an intelligent and wise logic behind the voter's attitude toward the Communists, based on the old saying that the carp can't be at peace because of the pike. This is the healthy instinct of self-preservation. Russians don't vote for the Communists to protest any more. It is just that they want to have an opposition in the Duma that will see to it that whatever pro-government or other forces come up with makes sense."

"Whither U.S.-Russia Relations?"

Gennady Sysoyev said in reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (12/22): "After the Talbott visit, it will be a lot clearer in what direction relations between Russia and the United States will develop. Washington certainly doesn't expect Moscow to do an about-face by agreeing with it on Chechnya and ABM. But it expects less anti-Western rhetoric in Russia. Also, Washington expects that Moscow will at least not reject outright the West's recommendations on the issue of Chechnya. START II ratification could be the first gesture of good will. Moscow seems ready to make that gesture, without waiting for a new Duma."

"Pressure Only Makes Moscow Tougher"

Reformist Vremya-MN (12/22) front-paged this commentary by Yevgeny Antonov: "Public opinion is clearly in favor of crushing the enemy, as borne out by the parliamentary elections--the parties which in one way or another suggested a peaceful solution sustained the biggest losses. The West must realize that stronger pressure on Moscow will make it toughen its stand on Chechnya. If the Americans still have doubts about that, they are likely to have them dispelled in the next few days, with Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott in Moscow now."

BRITAIN: "Yeltsin The Terrible"

The conservative Times had this op-ed piece by columnist Anatole Kaletsky (12/23): "The electoral victory for the pro-Kremlin parties has obviously been marred by the way that the winners' hands have been steeped in Chechen blood. The Russian people's bloodthirsty relish for the wholesale slaughter of the Chechens has offered another salutary reminder on the brink of the millennium that human nature, at least in some parts of the world, has changed little since the time of Ivan the Terrible.... But despite the Orwellian atmosphere in which this election unfortunately had to be conducted, the outcome has been hailed in the West as another great milestone on Russia's road to true democracy, freedom and capitalism."

FRANCE: "Nationalist Revival"

K.S. Karol opined in centrist weekly Le Nouvel Observateur (12/23-29): "The situation in Russia is dramatic.... The Kremlin is discredited and everyone admits the country needs another policy, but few expect a change from an election.... Putin's popularity certainly played a great role, but the fraud was decisive.... During this rather nauseating campaign led by the Russian state, all rules...were violated. Seldom did we see the state television broadcast so many slanders against men deprived of a right to reply.... One may wonder if the total exclusion of the Communist Party from electronic media, even though it holds the majority at Duma, is compatible with democracy.... Washington and its allies should worry about the revival of nationalism in Russia and ask themselves about their own responsibility."

GERMANY: "Misleading"

Werner Adam had this to say in an editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (12/29): "From a Western point of view it is not understandable that President Yeltsin describes the warfare in Chechnya...as a glorious deed of the Russian armed forces and awards the generals responsible for the campaign with high and highest medals. However, the political and military leadership must deceive itself as evidenced by the increasingly absurd statements on the end of the war and the final victory.... In addition, Yeltsin and Putin's rhetoric about the new respect which the Russian forces have now created obviously aims at glossing over the growing losses in Chechnya. But the Kremlin has obviously understood one thing: The longer the war lasts, the more difficult will it be to keep alive the bellicose mood among the Russians who have been misled by the official propaganda."

"Russia Without Red Varnish"

Josef Joffe asserted in an editorial in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (12/28): "Can the Russians win this war in Chechnya? The answer must be 'yes,' at least as long as Russian losses do not result in a revolt at home, since Chechnya is not Afghanistan.... Another enemy is the indifference of the West.... Moral outrage again shows itself as an extremely selective phenomenon, not only because the fate of the Chechens does not touch us but also because it has the stigma of Islamic extremism.... The protests from the Berlin government are written in well formulated phrases. The same is true for Washington. Strobe Talbott wishes the Russians success in the fight against 'extremism and terrorism' but by respecting 'international norms.'... We can infer from such mild warnings that the West, unlike in Afghanistan, silently allows the Russians to do what they like in the Caucasus.... What kind of Russia is now developing? One that has only lost its red varnish, but not its very old imperial reflex. [It is a Russia] which...has by no means developed the democratic culture which should be the basis for a passionate outbreak of protests.... [It is a Russia] that considers the cruel victory against civilians to be more important than the reintegration into the community of major powers.... We do not want a...Russia that is searching for its salvation by using force.... However, a Russia that does not get money and good will from the West...could turn into what the USSR was before: an outsider that creates fear and has only exchanged the red flag with the tricolore."

"Christmas According To The Kremlin"

Tomas Avenarius contended in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (12/27): "The date for the attack on Grozny cannot be surprising. It was clear that the planners in Moscow's Defense Ministry intended to use the quiet that prevailed in Western ministries and newspaper headquarters over Christmas. The date for the attack was planned long ago, since the possibilities to protest these days are smaller than on other days. And the same is true for the interest of politicians. The politicians relax, and the audience does not want to watch newscast about the misery of refugees and war crimes in the Caucasus at the beginning of the new millennium.... The outcome of Moscow's millennium offensive is certain, and a victory cannot be ruled out this time. But one thing is even clear today: Moscow's rulers are allowing their country to change into the next millennium under the same circumstances that has characterized Russia's policy and history even in the old one, i.e., violence."

"Cynical Battle"

Left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau observed (12/27): "There is a bad tradition in Russia where it orders its troops to attack the Chechen capital during the allegedly most peaceful time of the year. In 1994, former defense Minister Grachov sent young tank soldiers to Grozny, and more than 9,000 of them died on New year's Eve alone. There are no indications whatsoever that the young soldiers will be better off this time. Again a slaughter has begun in which hundreds of young Russians and Chechens will die."

"Meat Mincer Grozny"

Jens Hartmann stated in right-of-center Die Welt of Berlin (12/27): "Boris Yeltsin could have hardly shown more clearly what he thinks of the opinion of the West. On Christmas of all days, he ordered his soldiers to capture Grozny. And in the middle of this 'meat mincer,' as Russia calls such atrocities, are thousands of frightened civilians.... In Grozny, Russia is about to sacrifice not only thousands of people but also the democratic achievements on the altar of war. Russia has gone far beyond the original aim to eliminate terrorists and bandits. Now human rights are ground in the meat mincer in Grozny."

"Minor Ice-Age Between U.S. And Russia"

Peter de Thier held in left-of-center Berliner Zeitung (12/27): "Thus far, Bill Clinton's opposition to the war in Chechnya has only been halfhearted. The fact that his criticism is now clearer than in the past is based less on Washington's interests in the Caucasus than on his planning a new anti-missile defense system and [his desire to] modify the ABM Treaty.... This is why it is no coincidence that ABM and Chechnya are mentioned in the same breath in Washington. The plan of the Clinton strategists can be described as follows: If we promise the Russians that we'll no longer interfere in Chechnya, they may approve a revision of the ABM Treaty.... However, in addition to moral pressure, the U.S. power in international financial institutions is also part of the 'diplomatic' instruments which the United States has. In the IMF, the United States has a blocking minority and if Moscow does not get more funds, this will have to do with Chechnya and the ABM Treaty. At the end of his term, Clinton would like to do U.S. arms industry a favor. This ambition will have decisive influence on relations between Washington and Moscow."

ITALY: "Bellicose Russia"

Alberto Stabile filed from Moscow in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (12/29): "The recent electoral campaign has ended up sinking all plans for dialogue under bellicose and patriotic rhetoric, to an extent never reached in Russia since the fall of the USSR."

"U.S.-Putin 'Star Wars'

Franco Venturini wrote in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (12/24): "Convinced as it is that it will be able to rapidly end the game in Chechnya, the Russian leadership links instead the future of Russia's relations with the West, and in particular with the United States, with strategic security issues. And it underlines an important novelty: The new Russian parliament will finally ratify START II, which has been a hostage to the Communist opposition so far.... One could see that as a ray of sunshine in the Russian-American chill of these days, if the continuing clash over the 'space shield' sought by Washington were not spoiling the feast and had not spoiled Strobe Talbott's mission as well."

"U.S.-Russia Differences"

In a report from Moscow in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (12/24), Alberto Stabile maintained: "If the Cold War days are not back, we are very close. Suddenly U.S.-Russian differences over some difficult regional issues like Chechnya and Kosovo, or over some basic issues, like the U.S. request for a revision of the ABM Treaty...seem to be gaining more strength and visibility than the agreements achieved over the last several years. Three days of meetings between U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Talbott and Russian leaders only helped to verify the existence of 'substantial differences, disagreements in fact' (Talbott's words) both on arms control and on Chechnya. Talbott did not hesitate to accuse Russia of violating international law with its operation against Chechen separatist forces."

"U.S.-Russian Differences Remain"

A report from Moscow in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera stressed (12/23): "Putin yesterday talked about Chechnya and the strategic balance with Strobe Talbott on a visit to Moscow. The fact that Putin met with Talbott was interpreted by many as a gesture of good will towards the United States. Substantially, however, Talbott's mission has not been very productive so far: While the road to the ratification of START II by the new Russian parliament seems to have been paved, differences remain the same over the American intention to build a 'space shield.'"

"Putin Meets Talbott"

Roberto Livi wrote from Moscow for Rome's centrist Il Messaggero (12/23): "There was a formal gesture of opening after all. Putin yesterday met with Strobe Talbott...with whom he examined the whole range of U.S.-Russia relations, which are at their lowest level in years. The new strong man in Moscow expressed the hope that the days of the Cold War will not return to Moscow-Washington relations.... He had taken a step toward cooperation by previously announcing that he will do all he can to have the new Russian parliament ratify START II.... But Putin is in a hurry to win in Grozny...and Russian generals have no intention of surrendering to U.S. pressure to obtain an amendment to the ABM Treaty. Thus it is possible that the Russian opening will be deemed important, but insufficient, by the White House."

"Basic Problems Remain In The Closet"

Piero Sinatti opined in leading, business Il Sole-24 Ore (12/22): "The Russian electoral results were prompted by an unprecedented manipulation of voters.... The presidential party owes its success to the war in Chechnya.... At this point, two vital issues for the relations between Russia and the West enter the playing field: loans to Moscow...and the START II Treaty.... The main serious concern is that the country's huge problems have not been dealt with at all. Putin and his friends promised an efficient and strong state. But they did not say if and how they will affect the return of capital which fled the country.... Nor did they say on which social groups and businesses the main tax burden will weigh."

AUSTRIA: "Murderous Moscow"

Andreas Schwarz commented in conservative Die Presse (12/28): "The brutality with which the Russian troops have completed the major offensive against the Chechen capital of Grozny since Christmas outmatches the damage once caused by Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan.... The Chechen campaign was cocooned in one big lie from the very beginning.... This strategy was the main reason why the Western world remained silent for a long time. When the war was long ravaging, it [the West] still somehow conceded to Moscow the right to take action against terrorism. The UN did not react at all, for the Security Council is incapable to act because of its composition and veto structure.... The EU foreign ministers showed concern only very late.... Since then, the disastrous trip of the OSCE chairman to Caucasus is still being passed over in silence. It is true that the United States also warns a little, threatens to freeze loans, but in reality does not want to challenge its relationship with the new Duma. What should be done against a country, which acts in Chechnya like Serbia in Kosovo, and whose former claim of hegemony still shakes the world to the core? A country, which still frightens the world, but whose lack of constructive ideas does not allow a new world order to emerge. A country, which therefore repairs its inferior regional policy with a murderous violence that goes unpunished."

"Washington's Naive Russian Policy"

Foreign affairs writer Burkhard Bischof asserted in conservative Die Presse (12/22): "This Duma election has not changed the rotten, corrupt, inefficient Russian leadership structures.

"The rhetoric may change a little--which will be gratefully noted by Western governments and business people. Until the next big Russian crash--as predicted by the Economist for 2001 at the latest--will open their eyes."

BELGIUM: "Moscow Is Pleased With Its Relations With The West"

Freddy De Pauw put forth this analysis in independent, Catholic De Standaard (12/28): "Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov considers that Russia's relations with the West are at 'a rather good level.'... Ivanov has good reason to be pleased: The war in Chechnya is hardly hindering Russia's relations with the West. Sanctions were mentioned at some point, but they remained only words. The restraint which Washington is asking Moscow to show can be found back in the West's attitude. Indignation about human rights violations in Chechnya gives way to other political considerations.... The West's restraint vis-a-vis the Kremlin has no limits. The West wants the current regime to stay in place, but at the same time would like to drive back Russia's influence. This leads to a very ambivalent attitude, for instance in the Caucasus and Central Asia, where the United States and Turkey are Moscow's main rivals for control of the oil and gas fields. American oil lobbies are pushing the State Department toward confrontation, whereas the Pentagon and the CIA are holding back. For years, the CIA has pointed out the huge plundering which was taking place in Russia, but its reports were laughed off by Vice President Gore among others. The State Department is also pushing hard for the eastward expansion of NATO, by accepting new members and by establishing close military cooperation with countries like Ukraine and Georgia, which Russia...would like to keep in its zone of influence. The diverse visions in Washington illustrate that...the United States has no coherent 'Eastern policy,' but the EU, for that matter, even less so."

"Putin Will Also Have To Win The Peace"

Pol Mathil opined in independent Le Soir (12/24): "For Russian Prime Minister Putin, the time of all dangers has come. Indeed, for Putin, the Russian superpower's war against the Chechen 'terrorists' was, in his race to the Kremlin, the easiest part. Now, things are becoming serious. It is during the next six months--until the presidential elections--that Mr. Putin will have to prove to the Russian people that he can do other things than just slaughter Chechens.... Unless he finds another territory to conquer--which is not very likely--Mr. Putin, if he really wants to be Boris Yeltsin's successor, will have to take care of the peace, not of the war. Moreover, he will have to address the Russian economy, which might prove much more explosive than the Chechen expedition."

BULGARIA: "Talk, Talk, Talk"

Opposition party Duma commented (12/24): "Clinton's words that Russia's stability was in the U.S. interest are just hollow talk. The U.S. interests require just the opposite: a weak Russia, torn apart by conflicts and crises. At a time when the Chechen operation has gone awry for the Islamic terrorists, the United States has acted in a way that would prevent Russia from bringing the operation to an end and dealing successfully with the terrorist groups.... It is clear now that Bin Laden and his mercenaries will be persecuted only where they are a threat to the U.S. citizens. When they threaten the life of others, they could and will be encouraged if the U.S. interests require it."

CROATIA: "Russian Rhythm Of Destruction"

Fran Visnar commented in government-controlled Vjesnik (12/29): "The Kremlin does not want Grozny to become a Chechen Stalingrad. The Chechens are putting up fierce resistance, because they are fighting on their soil.... The mighty Russian army will use its destroying firepower until the very end: in order to take Grozny, it will have to level it to earth."

HUNGARY: "Bear On The Rug"

Foreign policy editor Csaba Szerdahelyi stated in influential, liberal-leaning Magyar Hirlap (12/23): "At the moment, the greatest achievement is that the Communists have not been able to succeed with a coup in the past decade. At most, Soviet nostalgia is enough for the Communists to have the biggest faction in the Duma, which, however, is not of much use to them. In contemporary Russia, the Communist threat is not too big; at the most, improperly handled nationalist desires getting out of control is what one should be concerned about."

FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA: "Kremlin Cements Itself In Power"

Independent, left-of-center Utrinski Vesnik (12/22) carried an analysis by Dimitar Culev: "Yeltsin...managed to do two things. He succeeded in holding the Duma Communist seats to the same level, and he also defeated the serious threats coming from his centrist rivals, most notably the ex-Prime Minister Primakov. Yeltsin should also take credit for bringing in the right man in the right place at the right time. Putin quickly made people forget about the first war in Chechnya, about the economic crisis, and about the very unpredictable, capricious president."

POLAND: "Look Who's Talking"

Aleksander Kropiwnicki opined in right-of-center Zycie (12/28): "The Kremlin's policy, in its best Mongolian traditions, has never ceased to be a conglomerate of treachery, insolence and impudence. The only language Russia understands is the language of power.... It is no use either 'softening' or backing Russian democrats, not to mention stubbornly supporting this or that Yeltsin. Western daydreamers have been recently paid by Russia with the usual coin for all their efforts: a pack of invectives and the threat of a nuclear attack."

"The Imperial Spirit"

Marzenna Piasecka wrote in Catholic Nasz Dziennik (12/22): "What is upsetting are the growing chauvinist trends among the Russians. The outcome of Sunday's elections evidently demonstrated that the imperial spirit is reborn in the Russian community."

SLOVENIA: "World Has Been Silent About Apocalypse In Grozny"

Left-of-center Delo (12/27) opined in a front-page editorial: "Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia had been searching for its new identity and national idea. Then Vladimir Putin came and found it, in the shape of a war which instantly joined all sound and patriotic forces of the new Russia.... The second Chechen war is much more damaging than the first one, particularly for Russia's fragile democracy. Many Russian democrats, who opposed a military march to the northern Caucasus, have with surprising easiness accepted the psychosis of war. Not wanting to spoil the Christmas and New Year's idyll, the world has been silent about the apocalypse in Grozny."

SPAIN: "From Kosovo To Chechnya"

Barcelona's centrist La Vanguardia noted (12/28): "After winning virtual independence in a two-year struggle in 1996, Chechnya has again become the scene of Russian military excesses in defense of the Federation's territorial integrity as well as the electoral interests of Boris Yeltsin, and those of his protégé, Vladimir Putin. As Russia enters the new millennium debating whether to be pro- or anti-Western in outlook, Putin looks like the odds-on favorite to win the presidency in 2000 and even appears to be the candidate of the West in doing so."

SWEDEN: "Round One To Putin"

Independent, liberal Dagens Nyheter maintained (12/21): "Should fortune of war in Chechnya turn, or public opinion for the bombardment change, Vladimir Putin will lose his platform. His popularity is closely connected with the military efforts in the Caucasus.... Yeltsin's capriciousness is concerning. We have seen an unstable country with a political system which allows prestige and personal vendettas to overshadow everything.... However, the election result might provide, by Russian standards, some kind of stability until the upcoming presidential elections."

TURKEY: "Chechnen Bloodbath Must Be Stopped"

Ismail Yagci judged in conservative/religious Turkiye (12/23): "For months there has been a brutal bloodbath in Chechnya before the very eyes of the international community. The members of the UN are remaining silent, and even the United States is not making a big fuss about the ongoing massacres.... Turkey should initiate all the necessary steps vis-a-vis the international community in order to stop this aggression before it is too late. This is a historical responsibility."

"Russian Elections"

Hakan Kirimli wrote in religious/intellectual Zaman (12/22): "The Russian government worked extremely hard to manipulate the media effectively before and during the elections. That was enhanced by ultra-nationalist propaganda, as well as incorrect information on the Chechnya issue.... The triumphs of Putin and the Unity Bloc are actually based upon an imaginary victory in Chechnya. It goes without saying that after these election results, Russia will intensify its operations, and do its utmost to wipe out Chechnya."

UKRAINE: "A Vote For War In Chechnya"

Centrist Den claimed (12/21): "Having cast their votes for 'Yedinstvo,' every fourth Russian voted for the war in Chechnya, for the absence of an economic program, and for the expressed conviction that athletes and policemen are what tthe country's legislature really needs in this crisis period."

"On the Way To Empire"

Nationalist Vechirnii Kyiv judged (12/22): "The election firmed up the Russians' unity in their craving for a 'tough hand.'"

EAST ASIA

AUSTRALIA: "Putin Consolidates Hold On Power By Shameful Military Adventure"

The liberal Melbourne Age featured this editorial (12/21): "Even amid such disinformation, it is disturbing that few Russians seem to have asked whether President Yeltsin or Mr. Putin could prove their allegations about Chechen terrorism, or why what began as a limited border engagement suddenly turn into a full-scale invasion of the breakaway republic. The election result has saved the career of Mr. Yeltsin and launched the career of Mr. Putin, but in doing so it has revealed just how immature and insecure democracy is in Russia."

CHINA: "Which Track Is The New Duma On?"

Li Qinyi commented in Beijing Youth Daily (Beijing Qingnianbao, 12/22): "Although the pro-West forces have got an upper hand in the new Duma, objective facts make it hard to achieve any breakthrough in the relationship between Russia and Western countries. In order to win public support in the presidential elections next year, Al Gore is expected to adopt a relatively tough policy towards Russia. Thus, the Chechnya issue is still an excuse of the West to attack Russia.... The results of the Duma elections give Putin a major boost in his bid for the presidential elections next year. However, the possibility cannot be ruled out that the Kremlin would use him as a scapegoat if the situation in Chechnya further deteriorates."

HONG KONG: "Russia Gets Another Vote For Democracy"

The independent Hong Kong Standard had this editorial (12/22): "Ten years ago, democratic elections were unthinkable in Russia. Today, they have become routine. Russians have demonstrated that they are as freedom-loving as their counterparts from mature democracies in the West.... Russia may become more stable as the result of shaping of multipolar politics. The latest available outcome showed the 450 seats in the legislature are almost equally distributed among the right, center and left of the political spectrum. This would mean economic reforms are more likely to continue as the balance of power in the Duma is taken away from the Communists.... The Duma election outcome has also rekindled hope for more U.S.-Russian cooperation, as they are about to resume talks on the nuclear disarmament."

INDONESIA: "Victory For Putin"

Leading, independent Kompas held (12/21): "All indications are that this fair and democratic election not only restores a balance in parliament with the reduction of Communist seats, but also carries broader implications about future Russian actions in Chechnya and a sketch of the next year's presidential election. In democratic terms, Russian elections--heir to the legacy of Soviet communist totalitarianism--are a common occurrence these days. For democracy's supporters, it is a positive aspect in a country just finishing a long, undemocratic era."

JAPAN: "Duma Elections And On Russia's Relations With West"

Liberal Asahi held (12/22): "Communists and other opposition parties will probably become more cooperative with the ruling coalition, bringing stability to Russian politics. The international community, however, cannot help expressing grave concern over Russia's 'anti-foreign atmosphere' shown through the elections.... The Kremlin employed election campaign tactics of rejecting the Western criticism of Russia's indiscriminate bombing of Chechnya and of arousing Russian patriotism and nationalism. We are worried that the Russian leadership, having successfully used the rise of Russian nationalism, will take advantage of anti-U.S. sentiment...over NATO's expansion and Kosovo during the presidential election. Such a move would have an adverse effect on Russia's ratification of the CTBT and its relations with the United States and Europe."

SOUTH KOREA: "Russia Now Heading Toward Stability"

Chang Hyun-Kyu observed in moderate Hankook Ilbo (12/29): "Despite everything, including the numerous crises created by Russia's transition and its current economic challenges, Russia nevertheless seems to be heading toward stability. The latest parliamentary election, for one thing, dramatically reduced the sentiment of uncertainty on the political landscape at least."

THAILAND: "For Putin, Much Depends On Outcome In Chechnya"

The lead editorial in the independent, English-language Nation said (12/25): "With his victory, Putin now seems likelier than ever to succeed Boris Yeltsin in next June's presidential election. But much will depend on the outcome in Chechnya. If the war bogs down and casualties mount, Putin's rising star will fade along with Yeltsin's hold on power. "

SOUTH ASIA

BANGLADESH: "Russia Must Bend To Wishes Of The Civilized World"

The conservative, English-language New Nation commented (12/20): "Russia must be stopped in its tracks. The United States and the West must communicate in unmistakably clear terms to Russia that it...will not allowed to go further. They must tell Russia without mincing any words that it risks the cut off of all Western aid and trade should it continue with its campaign in Chechnya. With the same voice, the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) should also warn about its decision to sever all links with Russia."

INDIA: "Policy For Chechnya"

The nationalist Hindustan Times had this editorial (12/28): "The Kremlin does not seem to be having any second thoughts on this as it continues its relentless push towards the Chechen capital of Grozny in a bid to 'liquidate' what Russian generals call 'nests of terrorism.' The methodical, if ruthless, manner in which the Chechen war is being prosecuted reflects Moscow's realization that this will have far-reaching political and logistical consequences not only for Russia, but for Europe as a whole.... Thanks to the consistent bungling of Moscow's political masters, an effective political policy for Chechnya was never worked out.... The way the Kremlin generals are going about their Grozny campaign, they have obviously learned their lessons from the disastrous war in 1994-96.... It is time Moscow stopped wishing that the Chechen headache would just go away with a military victory and, instead, focus more on the republic's economic woes. Only then can Russians win battles over the minds and hearts of the north Caucasian people and forge a common identity with them."

"Russia's Primary"

The centrist Times of India ran this editorial (12/22): "For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union...Communists will not be dominating Russia's parliament.... As Mr. Yeltsin's heir-designate, Mr. Putin knew he had less than nine months to make an impression upon the Russian electorate.... Despite the criticism the Chechen campaign has attracted in the West, Mr. Putin's prosecution of the war is hugely popular among ordinary Russians.... Keenly aware of the fact that the Duma elections were really a bellwether for the presidential race, the Kremlin conjured up the Unity Party out of thin air to provide Mr. Putin the semblance of a political base.... Russia's political institutions are still highly vulnerable to manipulation by vested interests.... Wars can mobilize public opinion up to a point, but if Putin is to succeed his mentor as president, he will have to win the battle on the economic front as well."

PAKISTAN: "Before Grozny Falls"

The Karachi-based, independent national Dawn ran this editorial (12/29): "Whatever the truth, there is no doubt that Russia is showing signs of desperation as its self-imposed deadline for the New Year capture of Grozny approaches.... Meanwhile, the world response to this man-made humanitarian disaster...has been a major disappointment.... Unless it takes stringent measures...to stop the Russians...the West will only have itself to blame for a highly volatile situation in the Caucasus."

"Mass Killings Of Chechen Civilians"

An editorial note in pro-Muslim League, Urdu-language Nawa-I-Waqt said (12/23): "Addressing a meeting in Lahore, a Chechen representative has rightly complained that the OIC has not played its proper role to protect the Chechens from Russian atrocities. The fact is if the entire Muslim world takes a uniform stance, and seeks help from the United States and Europe, it can prevent Russian aggression. Pakistan should take the initiative and urge the OIC to play an effective role to help the Chechens."

SRI LANKA: "Superpower Rivalry Returns"

New York-based Thalif Deen argued in the pro-business, English-language weekly Sunday Times (12/26): "The United States and Russia, two Cold War adversaries, are cozying up these days to protect their own selfish interests in the duplicitous world of global diplomacy. Last week the United States was desperately trying to avoid a Russian veto on...Iraq.... At the same time, the Russians were frantically trying to thwart an American move to condemn the atrocities in the breakaway republic of Chechnya and censure the former Soviet Union. So the one-time adversaries struck a deal: The Russians would sell-out the Iraqis and the Americans would dump the Chechens. The trade-off was international diplomacy at its best or worst."

MIDDLE EAST

EGYPT: "War Crimes Continue While World Watches"

Salama Ahmed Salama argued in pro-government Al Ahram (12/29): "The war crimes committed by Russians against Chechens continue relentlessly with the world watching. The United States and the West, which give loans and aid to Russia, can only make verbal protests, but fail to take a decisive measure to stop the bloodshed of innocent civilians and children in Grozny.... The UN and superpowers that turned the world topsy-turvy in Kosovo and East Timor fail to stop the horrors happening in Chechnya.... Arab and Islamic governments are being lenient."

ISRAEL: "Chechnya As A Unity Party Asset"

Mass-appeal, pluralist Maariv editorialized (12/23): "The main beneficiaries from the impressive victory of the centrist parties, in particular the Unity Party, in the Russian elections are Yeltsin and the man believed to be his heir-apparent...Putin.... The Chechen war, of which Putin is the chief engineer, has made the former KGB member popular. The Russian public supports the war. Pre-election propaganda that presented the opponents to the war as traitors has proved to be very effective. The conduct of the war...has become a political asset.... It is far from certain how the Kremlin would respond to a situation in which that asset turned into a burden--this is bound to occur by June, when the Russians vote for a new president. For now, Chechnya means victory."

KUWAIT: "An Acceptable Act Of Terrorism?"

Independent Al-Watan (12/28) had this comment by Ayed Al-Mnaa: "Is it possible that the free world is only issuing statements without enforcing appropriate deterrents to force the Russians to stop their mad war against the Chechen population? Or is this Russian terrorism acceptable as long as it is done under the cover of fighting alleged Islamic terrorism? The destruction of Grozny is not a war against terrorism, but an act of terrorism by a superpower against humanity."

QATAR: "Seek A Political Solution"

Semi-independent Al-Rayah asserted (12/26): "The crisis in Chechnya is that thousands have refused to leave their homes in Grozny. They face certain death because of heavy Russian shelling. We hope that Russian generals will see reason and wait for a political solution to this problem so thousands of lives can be saved. And if Grozny does fall, this will be another violation of international law in a world that does not respect international laws and agreements."

SAUDI ARABIA: "Western Silence And Russian Crime"

Jeddah-based, conservative Al-Madina ran this editorial (12/21): "Putin understands that Western criticism (of Russia's Chechnya policy) will not go beyond verbal condemnation, because the victims are Muslims, (a group) accused around the world of terrorism. What is going on in Chechnya is a crime. The silence of the West is an unforgivable mistake."

AFRICA

BURKINA FASO: "U.S. Double Standards"

Independent Le Pays held (12/24): "In the end, the people in the name of whom they (world leaders) speak sometimes wonder if their leaders are not speaking in an alien language. How, in fact, to understand Bill Clinton...proclaiming loudly and strongly that Boris Yeltsin will pay dearly for his Chechen military stroll, and at the same time, reassuring that he will do nothing to sanction Moscow. For Clinton, the Chechen case is a matter of Russian sovereignty. The United States not afraid of double standards. Isn't Kosovo a matter for Yugoslavian sovereignty?"

WESTERN HEMISPHERE

CANADA: "Russia's Wartime Vote"

The liberal Toronto Star (12/22) noted: "Russia's new parliament will be more pro-government, nationalist and capitalist than the outgoing one. It will also be younger.... [The] strengthening of the center at the expense of the ideological left and the extreme right is not a bad result, given the wartime flavor of this campaign. Russia's democracy is maturing nicely."

ARGENTINA: "Russian Offensive In Grozny"

Leon Bastidas, on special assignment in Moscow for leading Clarin, asserted (12/22): "After winning legislative elections, the Kremlin is getting ready to launch its final attack against Grozny.... The Russian military offensive against secessionist guerrillas is the main factor for Putin's popularity."

BRAZIL: "Contradictory Results"

An editorial in center-right O Estado de Sao Paulo read (12/22): "The success of Yeltsin's administration in the parliamentary elections has a contradictory meaning. From the point of view of building a market economy and consolidating liberal democracy...it marks an unquestionable advance. Although the Communist Party has again received the largest vote...the surprising performance of...the so-called center-right allows one to think that the correlation of forces in Russia has changed significantly, favoring sectors more identified with the continuity of modernizing reforms.... [But] the majority of voters did not vote exactly in favor of economic and political modernization...but for the candidates' support of a leadership whose toughness has revived national pride....

"Moreover, the government used an arsenal of instruments in the campaign that are unacceptable in a serious democracy--an absolutely unscrupulous combination of corruption, intimidation and defamation of one's adversaries.... The opening and the progress of the Russian economy are indispensable requisites for stability in international relations. Also indispensable is the adoption of civilized ways of resolving problems...and the consolidation of a real democratic process. The Russians are still far from such."

MEXICO: "Russia, Elections Won At War"

Nationalist/pro-government Excelsior (12/22) carried a column by Juan Maria Alponte: "The war against Chechnya has placed Yeltsin's Prime Minister Putin's popularity at the top.... Both [Yeltsin and Putin] have won because of their 'Czarist' war against Chechnya and the nations of the Caucasus. This was the flag they successfully wrapped themselves with."

"Votes For The Kremlin Endorse War"

Left-of-center La Jornada ran this editorial (12/21): "Sunday's elections strengthened Yeltsin's position.... Aggressive nationalism was the common denominator of the elections. Putin...and his party collected on the intensive offensive against Chechnya.... The rest of the parties also joined this belligerent chauvinism.... Putin could only be affected by a military failure in the Caucasus, but the current offensive has strengthened his position.... Consequently, the Kremlin will overlook any foreign criticism...and its adventurerism will continue. By the way, Washington does not object much to the current situation."

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U.S. Department of State

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Telephone: (202) 619-6511

10/29/99

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