DATE=12/30/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SPLIT IN SUDAN
NUMBER=5-45157
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Sudan's President Omar el-Bashir has dissolved
parliament and declared a state of emergency in a
power struggle with his country's spiritual leader,
Hasan al-Turabi. It is not clear who will come out on
top and what that may mean for Sudan's strict Islamic
regime and its prolonged civil war. V-O-A's Ed Warner
reports some observations of two veteran Sudan
watchers.
TEXT: This may be the paramount human rights crisis
in the world today, and the world is not paying much
attention.
That is how Peter Bell describes the sixteen-year war
in Sudan that has taken two-million lives and uprooted
four-million people. Though the fighting is
intermittent, there is no end in sight.
From its capital in Khartoum, the Muslim north has
imposed a harsh Islamic rule on the country.
Southerners, largely Christian and animist, have
resisted. The war has led to brutal human rights
violations and a brisk slave trade.
Mr. Bell is President of CARE U-S-A, an international
relief and development organization based in Atlanta,
Georgia. He has traveled to Sudan many times in an
effort to help its impoverished, war-weary people.
Now Sudanese politics are changing, with a dramatic
split between the nation's two leaders who have so far
worked together to maintain the regime. Could this
mean some moderation and even an end to the civil war?
Mr. Bell thinks that is possible:
/// Bell Act ///
My sense is that the changes that have occurred
over the last several weeks, if they stick, are
likely to produce a more moderate government and
one more willing to engage in negotiation with
the south, and more willing to engage
constructively with the international community
as well.
/// End Act ///
Robert Collins, professor of history at the University
of California, Santa Barbara, says if President Bashir
prevails in the power struggle, Sudan will be better
off:
/// Collins Act ///
[Mr.] Bashir is much more practical. He has
been doing all the dirty work - fighting the
war, coping with the problems of economic
development, which has fallen apart. [Mr.]
Bashir is in a position now where he wants to
maintain his authority, and they have come to a
passing of the ways. In other words, he is not
going to follow a hard-line, ideological Islamic
position, which is represented by [Mr.] Turabi
and is failing.
/// End Act ///
But Professor Collins cautions that President Bashir
will lead a military government that would probably
continue the war with the South.
The United States is concerned about Sudan's links to
terrorism and has imposed economic sanctions on the
country - except for imports of gum arabic, which is
vital for some U-S industries. The United States also
bombed a pharmaceutical plant in Khartoum, thinking it
was producing poison gas.
Peter Bell says terrorism is a genuine worry:
/// Bell Act ///
I just do not think that should be the first and
overwhelming concern because obviously, if there
is progress toward a real peace, that will mean
that the extremists on both sides will become
less central, more marginal. Ultimately, that
will be good for ending terrorism and for ending
the blatant human rights violations that we have
seen on both sides over recent years.
/// End Act ///
Mr. Bell says there is pressure within the U-S
government to send food aid directly to the southern
rebels. He believes it would be a bad mistake for the
United States to take sides in the war. It would
simply strengthen the extremists in Khartoum.
Professor Collins says Sudan, a weak, sprawling
country, cannot keep all terrorists out, though it is
making some effort to do so:
/// Collins act ///
I really have very serious doubts that the
administration of the Sudan government is
sufficient to control those who can flow back
and forth across their borders. The Sudan
government, fifty years ago and most certainly
today, does not administer the countryside much
beyond three or four hundred miles outside of
Khartoum.
/// End Act ///
Professor Collins says Sudan cannot be considered a
well-organized state on the Western model. So a
little patience is in order.
He adds that isolating Sudan only makes it harder to
understand. He recommends reopening the U-S embassy
in Khartoum, especially since other countries have
established relations with Sudan and started investing
there. (signed)
NEB/EW/JP
30-Dec-1999 16:06 PM EDT (30-Dec-1999 2106 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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