DATE=12/27/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=YEARENDER: CHECHNYA WAR
NUMBER=5-45124
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
///// ED'S: ONE OF TWO REPORTS WAR IN CHECHNYA. /////
INTRO: Russia ends the decade of the 90'S at war with
itself for the second time in its brief post-Soviet
history. Moscow Correspondent Peter Heinlein notes
that unlike the first war that began 1994, the current
conflict enjoys widespread public support, and has
boosted the popularity of its chief architect, Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin.
TEXT: On his first full day in the prime minister's
office -- August 10th -- Vladimir Putin served notice
that restoring order in the restive northern Caucasus
was at the top of his agenda. After a strategy
session with President Boris Yeltsin, the tough
talking former K-G-B spy boldly predicted an Islamic
uprising in the republic of Dagestan would be crushed.
/// PUTIN ACT ONE - IN RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER ///
He said -- today in the Caucasus, especially in
Dagestan, we have a massive rise of terrorism and
lawlessness. This cannot be tolerated.
Fighting between Russian troops and Islamic rebels had
broken out in Dagestan a few days earlier, a short
distance from the Chechen border.
The clashes began almost exactly three-years after a
truce was signed in Dagestan ending the last Chechen
war. Russia suffered a humiliating defeat in that
conflict, and was forced to pull all its troops out of
Chechnya. This time, Russian commanders made clear
they were intent on getting even.
Two-days after Mr. Putin's appointment, Air Force
commander Anatoly Kornukov revealed that a NATO-style
air campaign was underway, with 200 missions in two
days.
/// KORNUKOV ACT - IN RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER ///
General Kornukov says -- we have inflicted heavy
losses. He predicted the job would be finished in
less than a week.
But it quickly became clear that the main target was
not Dagestan, but Chechnya. Within a week of his
appointment, Prime Minister Putin accused Chechen
warlords of staging an uprising in Dagestan, and vowed
to crush them.
/// PUTIN ACT TWO - IN RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER ///
He says -- there will be bombing in Chechnya. He
added -- Chechnya is Russian territory, and we will
destroy bandits wherever they are.
As news of the military offensive spread, war-weary
Russians braced for another bloody Caucasus campaign.
The previous one, that began in 1994, claimed an
estimated 80-thousand lives in less than two-years.
But that war-weariness quickly evaporated this time.
Bombings at four apartment buildings in early
September, two of them in Moscow, killed hundreds of
people in their beds. Russia was outraged. Moscow
Mayor Yuri Luzhkov said what everyone was thinking --
Chechen terrorists were to blame.
/// LUZHKOV ACT- IN RUSSIAN - FADE UNDER ///
He says -- we name Chechen bandits as the source of
these terrorist acts.
No proof was found, but tens-of-thousands of dark-
skinned Caucasians were ordered out of Moscow.
Overnight, public support crystallized for a punishing
campaign against what were called Chechen terrorists
and bandits. Air strikes were intensified.
/// ARTILLERY SOUNDS - FADE UNDER ///
The roar of artillery ripped the air as Russian tanks
rolled back into Chechen territory after a three-year
absence. Moving in from the sparsely-populated north,
Russian forces met little resistance as they advanced
to within 20-kilometers of the capital.
Within weeks, nearly 50-percent of the rebel republic
was back under Moscow's control.
News that Chechnya was being retaken sent an almost
palpable surge of pride through Russia - and with it,
a surge in Prime Minister Putin's popularity.
Psychologist Farida Asadullina says the war united a
nation shamed by a long string of military setbacks
from Afghanistan to Kosovo to its complete impotence
in the face of NATO's eastward expansion.
/// ASADULLINA ACT ///
People were not aware three-years ago that we
lost this, so to say, Cold War to NATO. But
after this operation of NATO in Kosovo, Russian
self-esteem, so to say, was put down -- very
dramatically. The self-esteem was wounded.
People became aware this is the country of
losers. Our geo-political area of interests is
shrinking dramatically. These three-years
really showed that Russia does not have any
influence anymore on the countries that we
thought would ever be with us.
/// END ACT ///
Analyst Alan Rousso of the Moscow Carnegie Center says
the prospect of a victory, even in a small rebel
republic such as Chechnya, became a rallying point for
a country longing for a semblance of its former
superpower status.
/// ROUSSO ACT ONE ///
Chechnya has allowed people to feel more
confident in themselves. It has provided an
issue for the Russian people to get together on
a single issue they all believe in strongly --
to support Russian forces in Chechnya. So in
this sense, it has been a catalyst, a cathartic
moment in Russian politics at a time when the
country was feeling weak, disoriented, a
chastened former great power.
/// END ACT ///
The war also came at a time when Russia was preparing
for nationwide parliamentary and presidential
elections. Analyst Alan Rousso says in hindsight, the
conflict could not have come at a better time for
embattled Kremlin political strategists who, just
four-months earlier, seemed on the verge of losing
power.
/// ROUSSO ACT TWO ///
So the consequences of the conflict might make
one believe that by doing sort of a backward
induction that it had to have been planned by
the Kremlin because it worked out too neatly. I
do not think we have any evidence to demonstrate
that that is the case. But certainly, the
consequences of this conflict fit very neatly
into a kind of diversionary war-type scenario,
in which an embattled and weak center decides to
create a diversion, which is known to create a
rally-round-the-flag effect and distract
people's attention from their own domestic
problems. The Chechen conflict has had this
effect.
/// END ACT ///
The war has sent Prime Minister Putin's popularity
ratings soaring. The newly-formed party he backed in
recent parliamentary elections swept to a surprising
second-place finish, making him the clear favorite to
become Russia's president in elections next June.
But analysts warn that if a war can so quickly boost
political fortunes, it can just as easily damage those
fortunes when battlefield losses start to mount.
With parliamentary elections completed, Mr. Putin is
saying Russian forces are on the verge of winning the
war in Chechnya. But with more than five-months to go
before the presidential vote, he faces an even bigger
challenge if he is to complete his quest for the
presidency. He must win, and hold, the peace.
(SIGNED)
NEB/PFH/JWH/RAE
27-Dec-1999 07:33 AM EDT (27-Dec-1999 1233 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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