DATE=12/21/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=YEARENDER: CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY
NUMBER=5-45077
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED
INTRO: The former Soviet Central Asian states are
adopting new security strategies to deal with rising
threats to stability in the region. Spillover from
armed conflict in neighboring areas, religious and
political extremism, and drug trafficking were
mentioned as the main long-term security challenges
facing the region. V-O-A's Ali Jalali looks at
security relations in Central Asia as the region
enters a new century.
TEXT: Revised security policies outlined this month
by Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan call for enhanced
domestic capability and regional cooperation.
Earlier, Tajikistan boosted its defensive potential
through integrating former opposition fighters into
the army and agreeing to the establishment of a
Russian military base on its territory.
Security has been a major concern to the Central Asian
countries since they emerged as independent states,
following the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991.
This region of more than 50-million people inherited
bits and pieces of a broken military machine facing a
host of security challenges and an uncertain future.
Shared security risks pushed the Central Asian states,
except Turkmenistan, to enter a vaguely defined
collective security pact within the Russian-led
Commonwealth of Independent States (C-I-S). But the
group failed to create a cohesive regional security
system.
Director of the Forum for Central Asian Studies at
Harvard University, John Schoeberlein, says the
situation was caused by the different political
conditions of the member states.
// SCHOEBERLEIN ACT //
There are certainly diverse challenges the
countries face, they vary greatly in terms of
their internal condition, their political forms,
economic changes since the independence period
began. And so this effects them quite
differently. In Kyrgyzstan, for example, there
was a great de-emphasis on military development
and the country has basically a very limited
military capacity, until now. In Uzbekistan,
there has been much more militarization in the
post Soviet period.
// END ACT //
Uzbekistan, which inherited the infrastructure of the
former Soviet Turkistan Military District, emerged as
the strongest military power in a region of weak
states. This provided Tashkent with a capability to
play a dominant role in dealing with security threats
across the region.
In 1992, Uzbekistan took active part in bringing the
Tajik civil war under control, and earlier this year
it helped the Kyrgyz forces defeat Islamist extremists
who invaded the country from their bases in
Tajikistan.
But Uzbekistan's strategic approach to security issues
in the region has become a source of suspicion for its
smaller neighbors. They fear Uzbek domination of the
area.
In March Kyrgyzstan claimed Uzbekistan had been
advancing its borders into Kyrgyz territory. In
October, Dushanbe protested Uzbek bombing of suspected
Uzbek Islamist opposition bases in Tajikistan. The
attacks followed Uzbekistan's complaint in August that
Tajik authorities are unable to control the situation
in the eastern part of the country where extremists
were based.
The long-standing mistrust has driven Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan to seek enhancement of their security
through closer strategic partnership with Russia - a
country Uzbekistan traditionally eyed with suspicion.
Dr. Martha Alcott of the Carnegie Endowment has
written several books on the post-Soviet Central Asia.
She says Uzbekistan and Russia are expected to remain
the two major players in any security arrangements in
Central Asia.
// ALCOTT ACT //
Uzbekistan has the strongest security presence
in the area and Russia is really the only state
that can potentially limit Uzbekistan's
presence. But the threshold for Russian
involvement in the area is much higher than the
threshold for Uzbek involvement. And Uzbekistan
feels that what is going on in its neighboring
countries is of direct significance to the
security of Tashkent. And so I think this is
what is pushing Uzbek behavior, rather than some
sort of hegemonic vision that Tashkent wants to
dominate the rest of Central Asia.
// END ACT //
Analysts say Uzbekistan is not happy seeing Russia
competing for influence in an area Tashkent considers
its strategic turf.
Differences between the two countries were highlighted
in July during a meeting of the Russian Foreign
Minister Igor Ivanov in Tashkent with Uzbek President
Islam Karimov. Uzbekistan has shown concern about an
April agreement between Tajikistan and Russia that
allows Moscow to establish a military base in
Tajikistan. About 20-thousand Russian troops were
already stationed there.
On the other hand, Moscow is unhappy about
Uzbekistan's suspension of participation in the C-I-S
Collective Security Pact and joining Georgia, Ukraine,
Azerbaijan, and Moldova in an alliance known as GUUAM.
Russia perceives the group a pro-Western alignment
intended to undermine the C-I-S from within.
But, the dramatic rise in political violence in
Central Asia and the Caucasus in recent months brought
Moscow and Uzbekistan into a closer security
partnership. President Karimov emphasized the need
for Russia's presence in Central Asia during a visit
this month by Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
Meanwhile Kazakhstan, the largest Central-Asian state,
intends to promote regional and international
cooperation as the basis for long-term security
strategy. The country, which decided this year to cut
its army by half, announced plans this month to
increase security cooperation with Russia, China, and
its Central Asian neighbors.
Dr. Alcott says Kazakhstan founded its policy on
regional concerns.
// ALCOTT ACT //
Uzbekistan's main security concern is really
what they consider internal, because they see
the situation in Tajikistan is creating an
internal security problem for them. Where
Kazakhstan's main security concern is relations
with Russia and minimizing the prospects of
potential Russian aggression on their borders.
Kazakhstan is not building the same kind of
security force that the Uzbeks are. They are
not building an army that could become a large
regional army.
// END ACT //
The Central Asian states are also seeking Western
support through their membership in the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (O-S-C-E) and
NATO's Partnership for Peace program.
In September, Kazakhstan hosted a regional security
conference where foreign minister of 16 Asian
countries agreed on the principles of a wider Asian
security arrangement. It is intended to function as
an Asian security body modeled on O-S-C-E. (SIGNED)
NEB/AJ/RAE
21-Dec-1999 14:43 PM EDT (21-Dec-1999 1943 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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