DATE=12/16/1999
TYPE=ON THE LINE
TITLE=ON THE LINE: WHAT NEXT FOR INDONESIA?
NUMBER=1-00805
EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037
CONTENT=
THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE
Anncr: On the Line - a discussion of United
States policy and contemporary issues. This week,
"Can Democracy Work in Indonesia?" Here is your
host, Robert Reilly.
Host: Hello and welcome to On the Line.
After thirty-two years of authoritarian rule by
President Suharto, Indonesia is now in the midst
of change. Free elections led to the selection in
October of Abdurrahman Wahid, a leading Muslim
intellectual, as president. But he now faces
problems so serious that they could threaten
Indonesia's democratic transition. The country's
economy is still in grave difficulty. There are
separatist movements in several provinces.
Religious antagonisms have turned violent in
Ambon. And human rights abuses in East Timor have
sparked calls for the prosecution of some top
military leaders.
Joining me today to discuss the future of
Indonesia is Stanley Roth, Assistant Secretary of
State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Welcome
to the program.
You were fairly recently in Indonesia on an
extensive trip, as well as into West Timor. From
what you were able to observe, how would you
assess the transition to democracy so far?
Roth: I think you would have to say, so far, so
good. I think that it is quite clear that we all
know that the election was not the end of all of
Indonesia's problems, but was a necessary
condition to give Indonesia a legitimate
government so that it could begin addressing the
rather formidable array of problems, including
many of the ones that you flagged in your
introductory remarks. So it is not a surprise to
say that Indonesia now has to deal with the
economy, the aftermath of the Suharto years, the
territorial disputes, or any of the other issues.
But I think the fact that you did have a free and
fair electoral process with a surprise outcome - I
do not think that too any people predicted this
configuration - the fact that you have had a
civilian selected to head the defense ministry,
the fact that you have a new economic team that
does not have a lot of the problems that the old
team had in terms of associations with past
actions, and some of the steps that have been
taken, the release of the Price Waterhouse report
on the Bank Bali scandal, there have been some
encouraging initial steps. This does not mean that
they are home free, but I think that it does mean
that they are off to a good start.
Host: You met with President Wahid, you met
with Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri and with
several members of the cabinet. What was their
mood like? Are they optimistic or are they
overwhelmed?
Roth: I think first that I should indicate that
the primary purpose of our trip, the one on which
I accompanied Ambassador Richard Holbrooke to
Indonesia, was to focus on the situation in Timor,
both West and East. And that was our overwhelming
focus and we concentrated on that. And in that
sense, we found that there had been very
significant progress in terms of establishing
security in East Timor, that things were going
relatively well on that part of the island. But we
found considerably more problems in West Timor,
the portion still, of course, under Indonesian
control in which there are still disturbing
indications of militia activities, ties between
the militias and some aspects of the Indonesian
military, problems with refugees being intimidated
and not being allowed to return.
Host: And what is the agenda there? What is the
purpose of the militias continuing to intimidate,
harass and prevent aid workers from getting into
these camps, or prevent people from getting out of
the camps and back into East Timor?
Roth: It is a very good question and one we
asked ourselves, as well as our Indonesian
interlocutors. And the answer we heard the most is
that, from the point of view of the militias, many
of them feel that the only resource that they have
left really is control over people. And that,
since they are no longer on the ground in East
Timor, since most of them are not getting active
support from the Indonesian government, their real
clout lies in control over people and camps. That
forces people to deal with them. So to refuse
international access to some of these camps and to
refuse to allow people to leave, clearly, that is
unacceptable. Ambassador Holbrooke and I made that
very clear, both to the Indonesian government,
that it had a responsibility to allow those people
who wanted to leave to do so, and to the people
that we met on the ground, including the
Indonesian military in West Timor, the people in
charge of the camps.
Host: And what was the response of the
government when you raised this issue with them?
Roth: The government clearly agreed with us.
They indicated that they would need some time to
deal with the situation, that they expressed the
hope that that would be within two to three
months, from the time of our visit which was just
before Thanksgiving, that they hoped it would be
possible to empty out the camps of all the people
who wished to leave.
Host: Why can't the Indonesian military take
over the administration of those camps from these
militias because they are in Indonesian territory?
Roth: You anticipate our response because what
we said to them was, we didn't think one should be
looking at that long a timetable, that this should
be a much easier matter. We were talking about
very short differences. If the intimidation
stopped, if it were safe for people to leave, then
this could happen much more quickly, that it was
in Indonesia's interest to do so, and that what
the military needed to do was to clearly sever any
remaining links with the militia, and clearly
separate the populations in the camps. It is not
healthy to have those people who will want to stay
- and there are tens of thousands who will
probably fall in that category -- from the
overwhelming majority, estimated roughly at
seventy percent or more, who will want to go back.
But if those are separated, then you do not have
negative interactions between them. Then it should
be possible to get people out at a much quicker
pace.
Host: And those who want to stay are those who
collaborated with the Indonesian regime?
Roth: Right, but it is a little more complicated
than that. Obviously that is one large group. The
militias and their families have reason to fear
going back even though Xanana Gusmao has talked
about reconciliation and that there would not be
retaliation. But nevertheless, you can understand
their hesitation. There are also many civil
servants or former civil servants who had good
salaries under the government of Indonesia. I
think they might no longer have jobs since many of
those jobs were in the category of featherbedding.
You have people who are married to West Timorese
or to non-East Timorese who are worried about
their citizenship and whether they want to give up
Indonesian citizenship. You have people who are
just plain scared because they are getting
misinformation about what is going on back home.
We found that lots of people had no idea that
there were international peacekeepers. People were
being told by the militias that the Australians
were committing crimes. People have been told that
Xanana was committing violent acts against people.
Host: I understand that they are making videos
of Bishop Carlos Belo [of Dili] or of Gusmao and
trying to get them in the camps, saying, "it is
safe; come home."
Roth: One of Ambassador Holbrooke's initiatives,
which I think was a very good idea, was to
suggest: let's get control of the pubic diplomacy.
Why should the militia be allowed to dominate the
debate in the camps? Why not have some of the
leaders of the Timorese people, including the two
you mention, Bishop Belo and Xanana Gusmao, on
videotape telling the people that it is safe to
come back, and they should come back? And that
effort is beginning.
Host: What about the larger issue that is
arising politically from this debacle, and that is
the human rights abuses in East Timor? There is a
U-N investigation into those abuses and there is
also a human rights panel of the Indonesian
government looking into those abuses. Back and
forth, there are conflicting signals. One comes
from a foreign affairs minister who says, we are
not going to turn our generals over. President
Wahid says, on the other hand, let the chips fall
where they may. If someone is guilty, he will be
tried.
Roth: I think you need to distinguish between
the set of issues. I think that the very first
question is: what investigation does Indonesia do
itself? How legitimate is it? Is it an
investigation that gets to the bottom of things?
Does it look for scapegoats? Does it look for a
whitewash, or does it go after people truly
responsible? And I think the encouraging thing
there is that the president of Indonesia, the
supreme authority in the country, has said
categorically this week that, if in fact the
investigation leads to higher-ups in the military,
they should be prosecuted under this process. What
more powerful symbol could there be of change in
Indonesia than if you have an Indonesian-led
accountability process that does not stop at lower
levels, but goes to senior people?
Host: But some of these human rights people are
calling for the head of General Wiranto.
Roth: I think the question is where do the facts
lead. And the question of what type of
investigation it is and how do they proceed, and
let the chips fall where they may, which is what
President Gus Dur has said. He has not precluded
anybody, including General Wiranto, from being
covered, nor has he prejudged guilt, and I do not
think I want to do that today - say who is guilty.
Host: All right, but do you feel that there is
any incipient danger that a process such as this
could be destabilizing in and of itself, in that
it would alienate the military, which would then
not support this transition to democracy?
Roth: I think there is no choice but to have
accountability within Indonesia. And you see
demands within Indonesia itself and you see
demands internationally in terms of the
international commission of inquiry that was
formed by the United Nations Human Rights
Commission. This is not an issue on which
Indonesia can hide. And I think this is an issue
that, if it is managed well, will show that
Indonesia has changed. So I think this needs to be
viewed in a positive rather than a negative
context.
Host: What about the other very large looming
problem that President Wahid faces? Just as you
are undertaking this tremendous task of reforming
your institutions, there is a major secessionist
movement, particularly in the province of Aceh,
with a half million people demonstrating last
month in November to have a referendum that will
not only give them greater autonomy but
independence.
Roth: I think you are right to flag that as one
of the greatest challenges that faces the new
government in the short term. In fact, my own view
is that this is far more serous than the East
Timor situation ever was since it has implications
for the very territorial integrity of the country.
Having said that, I think one should point out
that the new government has tackled this issue
much more aggressively than its predecessor.
President Gus Dur has assumed a lot of
responsibility for this himself, has taken on a
number of meetings with Acehenese leaders, which
is something that had not been done previously,
that he has appointed a new position, minister of
state for human rights, and appointed a very
respected Acehenese former N-G-O [non-governmental
organization] leader, Hasballah Saad, to head
this. He has conducted a number of meetings with
many different factions in Aceh, as well as some
of the exile community. The president has
indicated that he is reaching out to the exile
faction in Sweden, which has been in exile for
more than twenty years. So for the first time, you
get a sense that the government is attempting to
deal with the situation.
Host: In addition, the government has released
all political prisoners, including a number from
Aceh.
Roth: That is a process that actually started
under President B. J. Habibie, for which I think
former President Habibie has not received enough
credit. But again, it is to his credit that he
started it, and it is to his credit that President
Gus Dur is finishing it.
Host: What about the referendum? There have been
conflicting signals, first, that they would allow
a referendum on independence, and then, of course,
there were voices in the parliament that said,
President Wahid, you do not have the authority to
authorize such as thing as this. And if there is a
referendum, it certainly is not going to be about
independence. And now, it seems that what the
referendum may decide is whether there can be the
establishment of Muslim sharia law.
Roth: I think that the first point that needs to
made by an American official is that this is an
Indonesian problem that is going to require an
Indonesian solution, not an American solution.
What we have done is to state our own principles,
that we want to see a peaceful resolution.
Ambassador Holbrooke and I came out very strongly
during the trip in favor of President Gus Dur's
position against the imposition of martial law,
about which we both felt the president was right.
This could lead to more violence, not be part of
the solution, but part of the worsening of the
problem. At the same time, we made clear that we
do not support armed separatist movements, not
anywhere in the world, including Aceh. And we
called on all sides - I don't think that you can
just say two sides since there are so many
factions - to support a peaceful resolution of the
issue. And all of that in the context in which
President Bill Clinton spoke to President Gus Dur
when he was here in the U.S. a few weeks back,
which is in the context of strong U.S. support for
the preservation of the territorial integrity of
Indonesia.
Host: Exactly. In that respect there is an
interesting debate going on within Indonesia. The
leader of the largest group in the parliament,
Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, has said,
listen, with thirteen thousand islands, over two
hundred million people, many different ethnic
groups - the only way we are going to be preserved
as a nation is with a strong unitary state. The
speaker of the parliament, Amien Rais, comes out
and says absolutely that is the wrong approach. If
you want to preserve the integrity of Indonesia,
you need federalism; you need to devolve power to
the provinces. I know, as a U.S. official, you
cannot say, here is the solution they should
pursue, but do you have any analysis of how those
forces are working themselves out?
Roth: I think first one has to distinguish
between a general proposition and an Aceh-specific
proposition. In that long list of issues that you
started your introduction with, I would have added
the question of the balance of power between the
center and the outer islands in Indonesia both in
terms of political authority and in terms of the
distribution of economic resources. That has long
been flagged as one of the issues that the new
government is going to have to deal with, and that
is exactly the debate that you describe as being
engaged between, not just Megawati and Amien Rais,
but almost everyone in the Indonesian political
equation. And the parliament will have to deal
with it. But there is a more specific issue in
Aceh, which is, even if you had a greater
devolution of power and a better sharing of
resources, would that be too little, too late? The
issue that we are seeing now in the negotiations
that the government is trying to undertake is
whether a mix of the package that includes
justice, accountability for the past, as well as
the cessation of abuses in the future, better
behavior by the military, including the drawdown
of troops that Gus Dur announced earlier, that
includes a better distribution of economic
benefits -- Aceh being resource rich and providing
more to the center than it gets back -- and a
greater degree of political autonomy. Whether such
a package -- the details would obviously have to
be worked out -- would be sufficient to meet the
demands of the majority of the people of Aceh --
clearly not everybody, but the majority -- as a
basis of staying within Indonesia. And that of
course is what the government is seeking to do.
Host: You mentioned accountability and that is
an issue that is key to economic reform and the
reform of the basic institutions that have run the
economy, including their banking system.
Interestingly enough, the other day the minister
of economics came out and said, if we prosecute
everyone for graft and corruption who has been
engaged in it, our economy would collapse because
that is how widespread graft and corruption have
been. How do you go about establishing
accountability when the situation has been that
severe? In other words, again, you have this
delicate problem of not pursuing a solution so
avidly that you cause a bigger problem than the
one you went out to solve.
Roth: I think the government has made it very
clear that it has to establish overall credibility
on this issue, which I think it has taken some
very good initial steps to do, the very quick
release of the Price Waterhouse report on the Bank
Bali scandal, something which President Habibie
had been unwilling to do. To release this report
was a very big boost to confidence in terms of the
international community's willingness to reengage
with Indonesia. And it enabled the I-M-F
[International Monetary Fund] to go back in and
start talking about a new letter of intent and
future assistance. I think President Wahid's
announcement and his attorney-general's statements
that they are going to reopen the graft case
against President Suharto and his family indicate
that nobody is going to go scot-free and that
there can be accountability for the big fish in
the past. Those are very important signs. And I
think, despite the very pragmatic statement that
you just quoted, which is that you are not going
to get everybody, the alternative is not to do
nobody, but rather is to establish clearly through
your actions that business is being done
differently. Part of that is what you do about the
past. Part of it is how you behave in the future.
And Indonesia has to meet both challenges.
Host: As you have made very clear, a stable,
democratic Indonesia is in the vital interests of
the United States. Therefore, what is the United
States doing to help Indonesia in this transition?
Roth: Quite a bit. I think, first of all, what
we have tried to do is through public diplomacy,
make it very clear just how important we view the
reestablishment of democratic government and the
peaceful transition that took place. We have had
the president of Indonesia on short notice into
the White House, meeting with President Clinton in
the Oval Office. We have had several high-level
officials out there in the initial days of the
government, including cabinet member Richard
Holbrooke. We have had senior military officials
out there, reinforcing the notion of civilian
supremacy and military reform. We will have more
high-level visits in the new year. So I think we
have tried to show through physical presence that
we are supporting the new government. We are also
looking at it in terms of resources. The
administration will be sending out in early
January an inter-agency assessment team to look at
the many very different ways to provide assistance
to the government of Indonesia to meet many of the
challenges. We are particularly interested in
seeing if we can help institution-building in
Indonesia. There are many institutions which in
the wake of years of repression are quite weak:
the press, the courts, the police, civil society
as we know it in the U.S., local parliaments,
which for the first time are real rather than
rubber stamps, the national parliament, which is
real rather than a rubber stamp. All of these are
relatively weak, fragile institutions. We have a
lot of experience, a lot of technical expertise.
There are all kinds of possibilities. We are not
necessarily talking about big bucks, but about
exchanges with people, education, helping staff
some of the ministries, providing short-term
expertise. I think there are many different ways
of helping Indonesia, and we are looking at that.
That is why we are sending out this team in early
January to give recommendations to Secretary of
State Madeleine Albright by the end of the month.
Host: I'm afraid that's all the time we have
this week. I'd like to thank our guest - Stanley
Roth, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian
and Pacific Affairs - for joining me to discuss
the future of Indonesia. This is Robert Reilly for
On the Line.
Anncr: You've been listening to "On the Line" - a
discussion of United States policies and
contemporary issues. This is --------.
16-Dec-1999 14:54 PM EDT (16-Dec-1999 1954 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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