DATE=12/14/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=YEARENDER: TAJIKISTAN - PROSPECTS FOR PEACE
NUMBER=5-44984
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Prospects for peace in Tajikistan improved this
month as the country set dates for the long-awaited
parliamentary elections. The poll will cap a process
of national reconciliation set in motion by a 1997 U-
N-mediated settlement between Tajikistan's Moscow-
backed government and the Islamic-led United Tajik
opposition - or U-T-O. V-O-A's Ali Jalali looks at the
Tajik peace process as it moves into the next century.
TEXT: The road to peace in Tajikistan has been long
and tedious. The country missed almost every deadline
set in the power-sharing agreement that ended a bloody
five-year civil war (1992-1997).
U-N mediators hope the multi-party parliamentary
elections, scheduled for early next year, will bring
stability to the impoverished Central Asian country
situated between China and Afghanistan. The elections
will be held in two stages. Voters will choose a 63-
member lower house (Majlis-e Namoyadagon) on February
27 and a 33-seat upper chamber (Majlis-e Mili) on
March 23.
The decision to hold the elections had long been mired
in power sharing disputes that inhibited the peace
process throughout the year. The latest threat to
peace came in the weeks before the November 6
presidential election in which the incumbent
president, Imamali Rahmanov, ran unopposed. The U-T-O
boycotted the vote and stormed out of the peace talks
to protest the exclusion of opposition candidates. The
government said the opposition candidates had failed
to meet the registration deadline and were therefore
not allowed on the ballot.
The head of the U-N observer mission in Tajikistan --
the U-N-M-O-T -- Ivo Petrov, says his team's mediation
led to a breakthrough between the opposition and the
government.
/// PETROV ACT ///
During the month of October, the U-N-M-O-T made
everything possible to bring the sides together
- the government and the U-T-O - and to discuss
possible means how to elaborate political
guarantees for not repeating the same
unfavorable situation which we had in the
presidential elections (later) during the
parliamentary elections. And after some days of
working together with the government and with
the U-T-O, on the fifth of November President
Rahmanov and Chairman Nuri signed a protocol
guaranteeing for preparation and holding of
parliamentary elections. (The protocol) is a
basic document (and) which guarantees that
parliamentary elections will be held in a free
and fair atmosphere.
/// END ACT ///
But opposition groups not aligned with the U-T-O,
citing continuous disagreement over implementation of
the peace accord this year, questioned the
effectiveness of the ongoing peace process. During
this year, the U-T-O twice pulled out of the
Commission on National Reconciliation - or C-N-R -
that oversees the peace process under 1997 accords.
/// OPT /// The U-T-O complained that the government
had failed to live up to its commitment to power
sharing, legalizing the banned political parties and
releasing jailed opposition fighters. In late April,
an opposition field commander (Mansur Muakalov)
abducted six policemen to put pressure on the
government to release his comrades from jail. /// END
OPT ///
U-N observers in the region say most of the U-T-O
concerns have been addressed, including the release of
opposition prisoners. In June, President Imamali
Rahmanov approved amendments to the Tajik constitution
demanded by the United Tajik Opposition. The changes,
adopted in a national referendum in September, allow
the formation of religious-based political parties.
They also stipulate the creation of a professional
bicameral parliament and extend the president's term
in office from five to seven years.
The landmark shift - making Tajikistan the only former
Soviet Central Asian republic that tolerates
registered Islamic parties - followed two other major
achievements. On August 3, U-T-O leader Sayed Abdullah
Nuri reported that the process of integrating
opposition fighters into the Tajik armed forces had
been completed.
The move, which practically transformed the opposition
from a military faction into a political force, led to
a decision by the Tajik Supreme Court to lift its 1993
ban on four opposition parties (the Democratic party,
the Islamic Revival Party, the Rastakhez and Lali
Badakhshan movements).
These developments, says Mr. Petrov, have reduced the
risk of renewed armed conflict in Tajikistan.
/// PETROV ACT ///
Even during the last crisis in the work of C-N-R
(Commission on National Reconciliation), the U-
T-O made it very clear that there is no way back
to the military struggle, that there are only
political means for conducting a fair political
struggle in the country. So, there will be, I'm
sure, some groups which will be dissatisfied,
but in any case I'm quite convinced and I'm of
the opinion that there won't be again a military
confrontation.
/// END ACT ///
Independent observers have no illusions about the
threat to peace by third parties and renegade armed
groups that roam the mountainous regions of eastern
Tajikistan. Acts of violence, ascribed to armed bands
not controlled by either the government or the U-T-O,
continue to occur in otherwise peaceful neighborhoods.
In August, an appeal by the C-N-R to renegade armed
bands to submit weapons was ignored. Meanwhile, more
than one thousand Uzbek Islamists - including a number
of renegade militants who fled persecution in
Uzbekistan - settled in the eastern Qarategin valley
causing a security problem. The militants were
involved last summer in guerrilla attacks in
Kyrgyzstan.
In an interview in November, the U-N's chief observer,
Ivo Petrov, said the security situation was improving,
even though some renegade groups remain.
/// PETROV ACT ///
There are in Tajikistan some armed groups which
are unaffiliated and uncontrolled, this is true.
The government as far as we know, is trying to
fulfil this obligation under the general
agreement. There was the issue of Uzbek
fighters. The government and the UTO
representatives agreed already in June that the
Uzbek fighters on the Tajik territory have to
leave. There are signs that after two weeks (of)
extensive talks by the government commission
with the fighters in Qarategin valley, the Uzbek
fighters have left Tajikistan.
/// END ACT ///
/// OPT /// Tajikistan's minister of emergency
situation and former U-T-O Military commander, Mirzo
Ziyoyev, told the media in November that Uzbek
militant Islamist leader Jumma Namangani and hundreds
of his gunmen were deported to Afghanistan. However,
there are no guarantees that they will not return. ///
END OPT ///
But controlling the renegades in the eastern mountains
is only one of the problems facing Tajikistan.
Analysts say it must also find a way to curb the
illicit drugs flowing into the country from
neighboring Afghanistan. On top of this, the
government must also find a way to foster economic
growth in what is one of Central Asia's poorest
states. (Signed)
NEB/AJ/KL
14-Dec-1999 13:20 PM EDT (14-Dec-1999 1820 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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