13 December 1999
Russian Offensive in Chechnya Seen to Threaten Pipelines
(U.S. backs Georgia's territorial integrity) (960) By Phillip Kurata Washington File Staff Writer Washington -- Russia's military operations in Chechnya threaten the East-West energy corridor from the Caspian Sea to Turkey, former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski said. If the offensive in Chechnya succeeds, "the neocolonial thinkers" in Moscow would be encouraged to try to destabilize Georgia, which is "volatile and vulnerable," Brzezinski said December 8. Brzezinksi spoke at a conference, "Geopolitics of Energy into the 21st Century," organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Georgia, Chechnya's southern neighbor, has been hit by insurrection and secession since the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991. Georgia is the central link for two proposed pipelines to carry oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea region to Turkey and markets in Europe, the Middle East and North America. The natural gas pipeline would start in Turkmenistan, run under the Caspian Sea, pass through Azerbaijan and Georgia and terminate in central Turkey. The oil conduit would start in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, pass through Georgia and terminate at Ceyhan, a deepwater port on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. In November, President Clinton attended the Istanbul conference that laid down the legal framework for the construction of the pipelines. U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson called the conference a "national security triumph" for the United States. The U.S. government says the pipelines would operate in two directions. As Central Asian oil and gas are pumped westward, western investment, technology, and ideals, such as free markets and democracy, would flow eastward. Brzezinski said if Georgia falls under the influence of Russia, the pipelines and, by extension, the economic and political pluralism of Central Asia would be at stake. He said Russia views the competition for Central Asian energy resources as a "zero sum game," in which the gain of one side would be the loss for the other. Russian President Boris Yeltsin has said publicly that western policy in the Caspian undermines Russia's legitimate interests in the region. Other Central Asian energy pipelines run through Russia, a situation welcomed by the United States. The Clinton administration says it wants all countries in the region, with the exception of Iran, to benefit from the web of pipelines. The Clinton administration says Russia has the right to defend its territorial integrity but has criticized its offensive in Chechnya. The administration supports Georgia's decision to ban forces involved in the Chechen conflict from using its territory. "We strongly support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia," State Department Deputy Spokesman James B. Foley said in a statement December 11. "The recent comments by Russian Prime Minister Putin pledging Russian respect for those principles are crucial to avoiding any spillover of the conflict beyond the borders of Russia." Brzezinski suggested several other ways that the United States might help end fighting in Chechnya. -- launching an international peace effort for the Caucasus, similar to the East Timor initiative. -- in partnership with the European Union, organizing an economic development program for the Caucasus, while setting aside questions of sovereignty. -- joining France and Germany in demanding that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) disbursing loans to Russia until the destruction of Chechnya ends. France and Germany have not explicitly mentioned Chechnya as its reason for wanting to withhold the IMF money, but Brzezinski said the message is unmistakable. The ranking U.S. member on the IMF, First Deputy Managing Director Stanley Fischer, said the fund will stick to economic criteria in lending to Russia. "We will keep political factors to a minimum," Fischer said December 9. "I've been struck by the very rapid change in rhetoric about Chechnya over the last day or two. But we made our decision when the emphasis was very strictly on economic conditions." Brzezinski has worked as a consultant to BP-Amoco, an oil company operating in the Caspian Basin. While urging a harder line toward Russia, Brzezinski advocated a softening of U.S. policy toward Iran, which lies to the south of East-West energy corridor. He said that Iran is in the waning days of revolutionary fervor and that ostracizing its government is not useful to U.S. interests. The Clinton administration has labeled Iran a rogue state for its support of terrorism, its attempts to acquire weapons of mass destruction and its opposition to the Middle East peace process. The U.S. government denies Iran a role in the East-West energy corridor and punishes companies that do business with it. Lee Hamilton, a former U.S. congressman and now the director of the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, also pleaded for greater U.S. openness toward Iran when he addressed the energy conference after Brzezinski. Hamilton said the oil pipeline through Turkey does not appear to be economically viable without major subsidies. So far, only Turkey has committed to subsidies, but only on its territory. Hamilton advocated a market-based approach to exploiting Central Asian energy resources, and that, he said, includes Iran. He said Iran should not be lumped in the same basket with other "rogue states" -- Iraq, Libya, Syria, Sudan, Cuba and North Korea. The Clinton administration works to change the Iraqi government, but, with regard to Iran, seeks to change only its policies. Conoco and other oil companies have lobbied vociferously for easing U.S. sanctions against Iran, which offers the shortest pipeline route from the Caspian Sea to an international outlet. In the long term, Iran will be a major oil supplier, and it is in the U.S. interest to cultivate better relations, Hamilton said. (The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State.)
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