November 5, 1999
WAR IN CHECHNYA, KILLINGS IN ARMENIA: PUNDITS MULL OVER HOW TO 'COOL THE CAUCASUS'
Ongoing hostilities in Chechnya, together with last week's assassination of leading government officials in Armenia provoked widespread concern among media from all regions that "the entire Caucasus, not just Chechnya, is a dangerous mess," made worse by Russia's "barbarism" in its southern republic. Several writers viewed events in the Caucasus in the larger context of a "tug-of-war underway between Moscow and Washington" for economic and geopolitical dominance in the oil-rich region. A Moldovan paper observed that "the U.S. doesn't conceal anymore...its strategic interests in the Transcaucasian region," while a Baku paper held that "against Russian efforts to subordinate Chechnya, the U.S. is moving to place Azerbaijan, along with Armenia, under its patronage." By its "reconquest" of Chechnya, Russia--according to some Moscow papers--has served notice to the U.S. that Russia "has stopped retreating from the...Caucasus," and intends to "scuttle" U.S. plans to "gain full control" over the region. Some editorialists also noted Washington's "hurry to settle the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in time for the oil wells to become fully operational." "The building of a new U.S.-supported oil pipeline...can only begin," said an Italian pundit, "if the region is stable." This is an eventuality made less likely, a Berlin writer added, now that "the first approach to come to a peaceful solution [on Nagorno-Karabakh] has...died in the bullets of the attackers."
Additional highlights follow:
THE WEST'S 'NEAR-SILENCE' ON CHECHNYA: Commentators from Europe, the Middle East and Asia registered growing concern for the humanitarian crisis in Chechnya, and debated what recourse Western nations have for pressuring Moscow to end its offensive. Writers in Britain, France and Germany bemoaned the fact that "the West's capacity for indignation has remarkably diminished...since Kosovo." While conceding "the limits of our powers to intervene," a London weekly nonetheless spoke for many in criticizing "the silence of Western politicians"--a silence taken by the Kremlin "not just as a sign of indulgence, but of approval." An Ankara writer attributed U.S. "indifference" to Chechnya to its interest in getting Moscow's okay for an "American plan on Nagorno-Karabakh." A Moscow pundit opined, however, "The West won't be able to remain silent," given public sensitivity to the "refugee issue."
ARMENIA: Opinionmakers from Europe to Latin America joined their counterparts in Baku and Yerevan in spinning a range of conspiracy theories--from Russian plot to Western plot to domestic political motives--for the assassinations. In the end, many--perceiving a "coincidence" between Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott's "reconciliation mission" to the region and the killings--concurred with a British paper's judgment that a deal on Nagorno-Karabakh "may be the biggest non-human casualty of the assassinations."
OSCE SUMMIT: Some European analysts suggested that the upcoming OSCE summit in Istanbul could "provide an ideal opportunity to seek a general settlement in the Caucasus," especially since it "happens to be Russia's favorite forum." Others debated whether member states would risk "an open confrontation with Russia" over Chechnya. Arguing that "the West cannot ignore bloody fragmentation in the Caucasus," London's centrist Independent laid out for summiteers the "two minimum requirements for a lowering of the temperature in the region: a deal on Nagorno-Karabakh and a negotiated end to the Chechen war."
EDITOR: Katherine L. Starr
EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 76 reports from 36 countries, October 28 - November 5. Editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed from the most recent date.
EUROPE
RUSSIA: "A Low Profile Success"
Andrei Grachev writes in reformist weekly Novoye Vremya (11/7): "As they demand from their Western partners sympathy with Russia as a victim of terrorism, the politicians in Moscow forget that these partners have long been dealing with terrorism. Despite the explosions in London and Paris it never occurred to anybody to bomb Ulster or Corsica or to emulate terrorists by making the peaceful population a hostage. Not a single country demarcates the borders of its own territory with bombs and artillery shells like Russia. And it appears that it is only the Russian authorities who do not understand that by bashing open the door into Chechnya they are closing their country's window into Europe."
"Refugees Are No Trivia"
Ilya Bulavinov wrote in reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (11/4): "Clearly, Putin can't finish this war quickly. He just can't do this--it would take years to destroy the militants completely, and it is impossible to make them capitulate. While he may get away with the war and its victims, he won't get away with a humanitarian catastrophe. The West won't be able to remain silent either--the war in Yugoslavia showed that the public is very sensitive to the refugee issue these days. The problem is really tough. Carried away with the fighting, the government did not bother with trivia like having to provide accommodations for forced displaced people."
"Ingushetia Is Part Of Russia Too"
L. Nikolayev, referring to the sorry plight of Chechen refugees in neighboring Ingushetia and Ingushetian President Aushev's questioning the legitimacy of the federal troops' action in his republic, remarked in nationalist, opposition Sovetskaya Rossiya (11/4): "We may refer to 'bad guy Aushev' and provide lots of other reasons, but the fact is that Ingushetia, just like Chechnya, is part of Russia, so Moscow and the premier personally are responsible for whatever happens there. For Putin, Chechen refugees are really a time bomb."
"Dress Rehearsal"
Svetlana Babayeva said in reformist Izvestiya (11/3): "Oslo was a dress rehearsal. Overall, the premier, we have to admit, has done a lot to prepare for the Istanbul meeting. At least Chechnya won't be the focus. Still, it will take a few more high-level meetings for the world to recognize Chechnya as a center of international terrorism, on the one hand, and not to equate it with Kosovo, on the other."
"Telling Chechens From Basayev"
Aleksei Smirnov filed from Stockholm for reformist Noviye Izvestiya (11/3): "The West is changing its view of the Chechnya issue. Initially it saw it from the Kosovo perspective--very dangerous to Russia--convinced that Moscow was fighting against the Chechens. Now it is beginning to tell the Basayevs from ordinary Chechens. Terrorism is the chief bugaboo for the Americans, so we can count on them not to protest too much, unless the Russian army strikes hospitals and convoys with refugees. By agreeing to accept OSCE observers in the North Caucasus, Russia not so much gave in to the West as consolidated its position in the runup to the Istanbul summit."
"Russia Resists Pressure"
Dmitry Gornostayev stated on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (11/3): "Russia is resisting outside pressure, perhaps for the first time in recent years. After the war in the Balkans, that seems justified as you talk with the West about an internal matter. Of course, human rights, a domestic problem, is also an international one. Hence Moscow's agreement to accept OSCE representatives at refugee camps. Russia is willing to cooperate and is not going to hide 'dead bodies.'"
"Who Is To Explain What?"
Vladimir Kuznechevsky asserted in official government Rossiyskaya Gazeta (11/2): "As it insists on political talks in Chechnya, the West can't name anybody with whom we could hold responsible negotiations. The West virtually has no leverage with Russia, and it certainly is not in a position to threaten force. Vladimir Putin does not have to come before the West with explanations. Let the West do the explaining. Thank God, the Russian leadership is sure of itself, confident that ours is the right cause."
"An Ace Up Russia's Sleeve"
Aleksei Smirnov filed from Stockholm for reformist Noviye Izvestiya (10/30): "Attracted by the huge oil reserves of the Caspian Sea area, the Americans have declared the North Caucasus a zone of their vital interests. But to gain full control over it, they need to cut Russia off from the oil routes between the Caspian and Black Seas. Moscow's trying to reconquer Chechnya may scuttle those plans. As Russia plays this game with the United States, it may have an ace up its sleeve. Word has been spread that the number of Russian missiles targeted at the United States will be increased in response to Clinton's darling Star Wars program.... The threat to deploy more missiles is just a ploy to make the Americans want to exchange it for concessions, from forgiving Moscow's debts to losing interest in Chechnya."
"President Loses Opposition"
Marina Lisina queried in reformist Vremya-MN (10/29): "With whom has Armenia been left? Now there is no influential political force to oppose the president, nor are there politicians such as Demirchian and Sarkisian, who had a strong pro-Moscow leaning."
"President On His Own"
Alan Kasayev pointed out on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (10/29): "Armenia has suddenly lost its most influential (Sarkisian) and most charismatic (Demirchian) politicians. The political field in Yerevan has been cleared--President Robert Kocharian has no serious political force behind him, his popularity rating is not very high.... While the story of the West's influence seems too fancy, U.S. pressure on Russia in the Caucasus will surely grow now."
"Armenia Small But Important"
Neo-communist Slovo averred (10/29): "Armenia is small but very important geopolitically, particularly today, when NATO assigns the Caucasus a special role in its plans. Of all ex-Soviet republics, only Armenia maintains close ties with Russia."
"What Is The War About?"
Nationalist, opposition weekly Zavtra (10/29) ran this piece by Igor Strelkov: "By killing terrorists and clearing them from our land, we destroy our enemies' plans to break away the North Caucasus.
"Even the first war in Chechnya, for all the stupidity and treachery of the political leadership behind it, helped suspend the 'confederalization' process."
"Big Geopolitical Game"
Georgy Bovt and Nelson Aleksanian in Yerevan filed for reformist Segodnya (10/28): "The attempt on the Armenian premier's life is one of a series of events which suggests [that] the situation in the Caucasus is becoming destabilized due to a big geopolitical game. Its symptoms are more than just the current war in Chechnya and Eduard Shevardnadze's urgently wishing to join NATO.... The [Chechen] war may only be a sign of the new strategy Moscow has been trying to develop in that area.... The Americans are beginning to realize that Russia has stopped retreating from the Caspian Sea area and the Caucasus.""
"U.S. Puts Pressure On Baku, Yerevan"
Leonid Panin said in reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (10/28): "Tired of waiting for the Minsk Group to make progress toward a settlement (in Nagorno-Karabakh), Washington resolved to act on its own. Its pressure on Azerbaijan and Armenia was so strong that (President) Geidar Aliyev and (President) Robert Kocharian had to soften their positions considerably. Shortly, their opponents accused them of capitulation and treachery. While political battles in Baku only led to the resignation of two key cabinet members, tension in Yerevan escalated to shooting in parliament."
"Lack Of Transparency And Coordination"
Boris Vinogradov commented in reformist Izvestiya (10/28): "Moscow, Washington and Paris are expected to keep each other fully informed about what they do as mediators and the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group. But it is hard to expect transparency and coordination when the lure of Caspian oil is so strong and those countries claim the Caucasus as a sphere of their national interests. Washington, apparently, is in a hurry to settle the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia in time for the oil wells to become fully operational."
ARMENIA: "The Russian Track And The October 27 Tragedy"
Opposition Haykakan Zhamanak (11/4) suggested how Russia could benefit from the assassinations: "The U.S. plan on the Karabakh settlement collapsed.... It is obvious that it would not be possible to make any vital decisions at the Istanbul summit, because Armenia does not have a powerful leadership.... The power of the pro-American president is greatly diminished.... Russia obtained big opportunities and chances to promote an anti-American ideology in Armenia."
"Unfavorable To Russia"
Independent Golos Armenii held (11/4): "The current developments are unfavorable for Russia.... Demirchian and Sarkisian had a great contribution in keeping a balance between the interests of Russia and the West, and the interests of the Transcaucasus republics."
"Assassination Supported By Russia"
Quoting Turkish and Azeri diplomatic circles, Armenian Revolutionary Federation newspaper Yerkir (10/30) alleged that the assassination was supported by Russia, adding, "The Baku-Ceyhan agreement, which is probably opposed by Russia, was to be signed at the OSCE summit. If the project is approved, and a settlement is reached on Karabakh, the Southern Caucasus will be economically independent and prosper."
"Hampering The Peace Process"
Liberal, democratic Azg (10/29), quoting the Noyan Tapan news agency, noted that "effective negotiations [on Nagorno-Karabakh] were important in terms of establishing stability in the region for the construction of pipelines. However, the recent events in the Armenian parliament can hamper the peace process in the region."
AZERBAIJAN: "U.S. Moves Into The Caucasus"
Opposition Azadliq held (11/4): "Against Russian efforts to subordinate Chechnya, the United States is moving toward placing Azerbaijan, along with Armenia, under its patronage. They also have managed to achieve the goal of reaching a final decision on the Baku-Ceyhan line. In the lead-up to the Istanbul summit, the Americans have worked hard to achieve serious results [on the pipeline and on Nagorno-Karabakh].... It is supposed that there is a connection between these efforts and the events in the North Caucasus. In Washington and Ankara, they are trying to achieve whatever is possible while Russian military activities are underway."
"Terrorist Act Changes OSCE Summit Prospects"
Opposition Yeni Musavat remarked (11/4): "Yesterday, in addressing journalists, Armenian Foreign Minister Oskanyan said 'It is not necessary to expect a great deal from the Istanbul summit. Following the October 27 tragedy, President Kocharian must pay more attention to the state's internal affairs.' Even the United States, which hoped for the signing of an agreement on the framework of a peace accord, has struck any such legally binding act from its agenda. In general, the terrorist act in parliament has completely changed the mood in Armenia. It looks as if Russia has suddenly awakened to Washington's intervention in the affairs of Armenia. Given the existing situation, the participants at the OSCE summit will avoid taking any sort of steps regarding the principles of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict."
"Prospects For A Compromise With Azerbaijan Once Again Vague"
Official Bakinskiy Rabochiy (10/29) surmised that following the assassinations, "The political situation [in Armenia] has been destabilized and the present leadership has received a grave warning. Prospects for a compromise with Azerbaijan once again take on an uncertain and vague form.... No matter what shape the situation takes and which political forces come to power in [Armenia], our republic, its people and its leader will remain committed to...peace."
"Assassinations May Help Settle N-K Conflict"
Opposition Azadliq maintained (10/29): "As a result of the terrorist attack on the Armenian parliament, the number of people who could actively oppose a Karabakh settlement is reduced. Having had the option of using the pro-Moscow orientation of Sarkisian and Demirchian as an excuse, Yerevan can no longer say that it is unable to make compromises."
BRITAIN: "Scared Of The Bear"
The conservative weekly Spectator opined (11/5): "In both cases--Russian and Serb--the intervention is justified in the name of 'counter-terrorism.'... In the one case NATO launches a three-month bombing campaign against the Serbs...while in response to the Russian savagery in Chechnya the West says, as they put it in the Pentagon, diddly squat.... This is not an argument for some quixotic action against Russia, which is a moth-eaten superpower, but a superpower nonetheless.... There is the world of difference, though, between acknowledging the limits of our powers to intervene and turning a blind eye to slaughter. This week, Russian newspapers made much of the silence of Western politicians. They take not just as a sign of indulgence, but of approval."
"West Must Stop Ignoring Tragedy In Chechnya"
The centrist Independent had this lead editorial (11/3): "The near-silence on [Chechnya] from Western politicians is both shameful and familiar.... This do-nothing policy is lethal. Here, unlike the situation in Kosovo, military intervention is neither necessary nor practicable. Tough diplomacy and economic threats are, however, essential if the lunacy is to be reversed."
"To Cool The Caucasus"
The independent weekly Economist commented (10/29): "All the signs are that the Russian government thinks it is going to swat its pesky Chechen rebels and reassert itself over the country's turbulent southern rim by force. It is unlikely to succeed. The entire Caucasus, not just Chechnya, is a dangerous mess, and Russia is making it worse. The last Chechen war, the rest of the world stood aside, vaguely muttering that it was an internal Russian affair. This time, with several neighboring countries threatened by the convulsions, outsiders have every reason to use their influence to promote a settlement. Fortuitously, a good moment for trying to do that is at hand. The OSCE is soon to hold its first grand summit in three years. Among the club's members are the United States, Russia, Turkey, three ex-Soviet republics in the Caucasus, and all the other countries of Europe. The OSCE...happens to be Russia's favorite forum. Its gathering in Istanbul in three weeks' time provides the ideal opportunity to seek a general settlement in the Caucasus.... Halting the bloodshed in Chechnya is the most urgent task.... The whole region is combustible. One bit affects the other. The summiteers in Istanbul should insist that making peace in Chechnya is just one part, albeit the most urgent, of the business of bringing stability to the entire Caucasus."
"West Cannot Ignore Bloody Fragmentation Of Caucasus"
The centrist Independent ran this lead editorial (10/29): "The wanton...assassination of Armenia's prime minister and half-dozen of his colleagues is yet another tragic illustration of the instability of the lands wedged between the Black and Caspian Seas.... It is tempting to say that none of this really matters and that...there is little we can do about it. The Caucasus, after all, is of scant strategic importance to the West.... What is more, Russia treats the region as in its sphere of influence.... But if this is to remain our attitude, then the future of the Caucasus will be even bleaker than it now appears. The two great organizations of the West, the EU and NATO, are advancing eastward. Sooner or later they will be confronted with the Caucasus--indeed, in a sense they already have been, within the OSCE. However much Moscow will wish otherwise, the organization cannot ignore Chechnya...next month in Istanbul. And so to the two minimum requirements for a lowering of the temperature in the region: a deal on Nagorno-Karabakh, and a negotiated end to the Chechen war."
"Caucasian Ghosts"
The conservative Times opined (10/28): "The shocking political assassinations in Armenia's parliament are the latest bloody manifestation of the turbulence to which the whole oil-rich Caucasus region between Russia, Turkey and Iran--and not just nearby Chechnya--is tragically prone.... The modern motive for much of this regional violence is the billions of dollars' worth of oil.... If Caspian oil is to be transported out of the region to be sold, the region must quickly become peaceful enough to find a route for a pipeline that can carry crude to world markets.... The United States is now determinedly attempting to make peace by solving the most intractable local problem--that of Nagorno-Karabakh. Yesterday's killings may be related. Strobe Talbott...had just left Armenia, and Azerbaijan has complained that recent talks have gone too much Armenia's way."
"Attacks Push Caucasus To Brink Of Chaos"
The liberal Guardian held (10/28): "At a time of Western alarm at Russian tactics in the Caucasus, it is clear that the Armenian drama will further destabilize the unruly, strategically vital region between the Black and Caspian Seas.... Only an hour before the attack in Yerevan...Strobe Talbott held talks...on the details of a possible agreement (with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh). That deal may be the biggest non-human casualty of the assassinations."
FRANCE: "Massacre In Chechnya"
Left-of-center Le Monde said in its editorial (11/5): "Russia is involved in an 'ethnic cleansing' operation in Chechnya that will surpass Milosevic's in Kosovo.... Russia is doing in Chechnya, on a grand scale, what was called state terrorism in Serbia. With one major difference: Russia has practically received the West's green light.... The West, for many obvious reasons, cannot act toward Russia as it did with Serbia.... But it is making a major error in letting Russia do as it pleases.... The war in Chechnya could trigger a reaction in the Caucasus.... A disaster is in the offing. The Russians will react only to pressure.... The Kremlin should not be allowed to count on additional IMF funds while it continues its blind air strikes on Chechnyan civilians. This is the minimum that can be expected."
"A 'Danse Macabre'"
Jacques Amalric observed in left-of-center Liberation (11/4): "This scorched earth policy will end in a regional catastrophe. Russia's 'reconquest' of Chechnya will contaminate the neighboring republics.... The West's embarrassed silence in the face of this new colonial adventure is hard to understand."
"The West Puts No Pressure On Moscow"
Pierre Haski judged in left-of-center Liberation (11/4): "The West's capacity for indignation has remarkably diminished...since Kosovo and Bosnia.... At the OSCE summit in Istanbul next month, Western leaders will have a choice between an open crisis with Russia and discrediting the organization.... How will it be possible to avoid speaking about Chechnya?"
"Armenia Decapitated"
Piotr Smolar maintained in right-of-center Le Figaro (10/29): "It is impossible not to establish a link between the attack and the fundamental issue which is tearing apart Armenian politics: the future of Nagorno-Karabakh.... One hour before the attack on the Armenian parliament...Strobe Talbott was leaving Armenian soil, after a visit which dealt with negotiations on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh."
"Manipulating Forces In Central Asia"
Dominique Bromberger told listeners on government-funded France Inter radio (10/28): "The battle of influence between Washington and Moscow has moved to the southern borders of Russia. With Turkey as support, Washington has launched a conquest of the Caucasus and Central Asia.... If Washington manages to win over Armenia, the entire strategic region will belong to the United States. It may not be a complete coincidence then that the attempted coup in Armenia took place just when Strobe Talbott was on a reconciliation mission between Armenia and Azerbaijan. No one can be as easily manipulated--both by Washington and Moscow--as confused nationalists."
GERMANY: "The Chechnya War As A Catalyzer For South Caucasus"
Wolfgang Koydl judged in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (11/5): "The neighbors in the South know from previous times what is now happening to the Chechens.... The three Caucasian republics have also felt the Russian influence.... But now it seems that Moscow's destructive campaign in Chechnya has positive implications for the South Caucasus. Under active mediation of the United States, the parties involved in several conflicts have narrowed their differences.... In Georgia, Eduard Shevardnadze's party came out of the parliamentary elections as the winner and the reason was the Chechen war.... And...it is likely that Armenians and Azeris will make a deal [on Nagarno-Karabakh].... The peace price with which the United States is trying to lure the parties is a pipeline linking oil reserves in the Caspian with Ceyhan."
"Helpless"
Werner Adam argued in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (11/4): "The misery of the refugees in the Northern Caucasus creates oppressive memories of the events in Kosovo.... Moscow does not need to fear a response [to its offensive] similar to the one that [the West] gave the regime in Belgrade."
"Infighting Between Partners"
Centrist Der Tagesspiegel of Berlin ran this editorial (11/3) by Christoph von Marschall: "Russia is violating human rights in addition to the CFE agreement. This is why the West cannot remain silent. But it is also certain that this criticism will be of little use. Russia will not stop this war. Should the West now match words with deeds, conceive sanctions or even cancel the OSCE summit?... The West does not have the power to force Moscow to give in."
"Great Game Interests"
Right-of-center Nuernberger Zeitung (10/29) has this to say: "Any solution that does not include the incorporation [of Nagorno-Karabakh] into Armenia is unacceptable for Armenian nationalists. This is why the assumption is understandable that these circles tried to prevent Strobe Talbott's success. But another much more powerful participant in this great game also had a great interest in the collapse of the American's talks: Russia. If Talbott had succeeded in Baku and Yerevan, nothing would have prevented the construction of an oil pipeline from Azerbaijan across Armenia to the Turkish Black Sea coast. Washington would be back in, but Moscow would have been out. Now an instability is dominating again that prevents a solution."
"Nagorno-Karabakh And Oil"
Right-of-center Der Tagesspiegel of Berlin held (10/29): "Nagorno-Karabakh...is the reason for the shoot-out in the Armenian parliament.... In cooperation with Turkey, the United States is trying to integrate, in the long term, Azerbaijan into Western defense structures. Russia, in turn, thinks that it is the loser in the distribution fight for oil.... The first approach to come to a peaceful solution has now died in the bullets of the attackers."
"Pressure"
Florian Hassel commented in an editorial in left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau (10/28): "Western diplomacy now has two possibilities: to be satisfied with a few worrying statements in order to return, as in the first Chechen war, to everyday business as soon as possible, or to match its words with deeds. If...the United States and the EU think that Moscow can be impressed with appeals to save human lives, they will be wrong. The only means of pressure that will have an effect on Moscow will be money. The West should freeze all the loans it has granted to Moscow until the war in Chechnya has been stopped."
ITALY: "Russia Strives To Regain Strategic Space"
A commentary by Alberto Negri in leading business Il Sole-24 Ore maintained (10/30): "Oil, Islamic fundamentalism, terrorist attacks, coup attempts, destabilization: The 'expanded' Middle East in the Caucasus resembles the more lively and uncontrollable Middle East of the Lebanon years.... This is the new front where Russia defends its efforts to regain strategic space."
"Crisis In Armenia Overlaps Caucasus Situation"
Roberto Livi filed from Moscow in Rome's centrist Il Messaggero (10/29): "The crisis in Armenia overlaps the situation elsewhere in the Caucasus.... Russian military are getting ready to assail Grozny; in Georgia, President Shevardnadze will face very difficult elections against adversaries who accuse him of having 'sold out' to the Americans.... In Azerbaijan...some ministers resigned, accusing President Aliyev of having accepted the Washington dictate on Nagorno-Karabakh."
"Behind The Blitz Attack There Is The Oil War"
Fausto Biloslavo observed in leading, conservative opposition Il Giornale (10/29): "In the southern Caucasus a tug-of-war is underway between Moscow and Washington, with the stakes being the exploitation of the black gold in the Caspian Sea and the strategic routes to get the oil to Western markets.... After several postponements...the American administration decided to support a project for a new pipeline from Baku to Ceyhan, in Turkey.... With the new pipeline Russia is left out...and Iran as well.... The building of the new oil pipeline...can begin only if the region is stable. The American trump is Azerbaijan's President Aliyev...who succeeded in carrying out secret negotiations for Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenian President Kocharian. The final handshake was expected any day.... At the least, the terrorist action has frozen peace negotiations on the separatist enclave."
"Coincidences"
Fabrizio Dragosei, writing from Moscow in centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera, observed (10/28): "Although there has been no official confirmation of a connection between the terrorist action and the negotiations over Karabakh, the coincidences are too many to rule out such a connection."
AUSTRIA: "Russian Reflexes"
Josef Kirchengast wrote in liberal Der Standard (11/4): "In Oslo, the Russian head of government Vladimir Putin gave U.S. President Bill Clinton the brush-off. The close friend of Yeltsin countered his [Clinton's] appeal for a peaceful solution of the conflict in Chechnya with the remark that it was a Russian internal affair. The OSCE is allowed to send an exploratory mission...but international mediation is out of the question for Moscow."
BELGIUM: "A Role For Russia"
Pol Mathil commented in independent Le Soir (10/28): "The region has never been a model of stability, it is the best one can say. The Yerevan terrorist attack is just another case in the long list of conflicts which are tearing apart this region.... Russia, like the USSR before, has played and can still play an essential role in the Caucasus.... On top of its troops in 'its' Caucasus, it has military bases in Armenia, it acts as a 'peace' force in Georgian Abkhazia and it has a powerful lobby in Baku."
BULGARIA: "Something More Than A Nationalist Adventure"
Left-leaning Monitor argued (10/29): "The beheading of the government in Yerevan will lead to a complete destabilization of the Caucusus. Whatever the motives for the assault in Yerevan, it will certainly cause confusion on the top in Moscow.... And even though Armenian officials deny the existence of political motives in the killings...the assault will only stoke the fire that burns under the feet of Caucasian peoples."
CROATIA: "Answer To American Mediation Between Yerevan And Baku?"
Bogoljub Lacmanovic speculated in government-controlled Vjesnik (10/29): "Diplomatic circles in Moscow figure that the terrorist massacre might be the result of 'Strobe Talbott's dictate,' as the governments in Yerevan and Baku had agreed to back away from their hardline nationalist stances regarding the self-proclaimed republic in Nagorno-Kharabah, and 'swallow' a portion of their national pride for the sake of realizing long-term strategic interests in Euro-Atlantic integration.... When searching for possible motives for the...massacre, one cannot ignore the fact that Armenia is Russia's last ally in the Caucasus.... After the murder of Sarkisian and...speaker Demirchian, the pro-Russian faction in the state leadership has been significantly weakened.... With the successful advancing of its army in Chechnya, Russia is regaining, or can regain, the influence it had lost in the Caucasus."
CZECH REPUBLIC: "Russia Behaves Like A Blackmailing Victim"
Jan Urban stressed in Hospodarske Noviny (11/3): "Western politicians didn't want to reckon with the fact that in their dealings with all the rulers in the post-Gorbachev period, they have always been taken hostage to the domestic political quarrels in Moscow. The main objective of this approach, which is mainly connected with...Strobe Talbott, is to prevent, at all costs, the destruction of the Russian state as the only authority able to control the [nuclear] arsenal."
FINLAND: "Great Power Ambitions"
Leading, independent Helsingin Sanomat had this op-ed column (10/31): "[Chechnya] reveals some very troubling things about the state of politics in Russia and about the way its leaders think.... Of course, we should not get nightmares and think that Russia is contemplating war on all its borders. The issue is much more ambiguous: (The war)...underscores the fact that Russia still harbors great power aspirations without the necessary preconditions."
HUNGARY: "Massacre Without Motive"
Washington correspondent Gabor Lambert asserted in center-right Magyar Nemzet (10/29): "The international pressure on Yerevan (and on Baku) is increasing day by day for settling the Karabakh issue.... And as is usually the case...the way out of the Karabakh dead-end could have been the credible figure of a hardliner [such as] Sarkisian.... As Russian foreign minister Ivanov remarked, the slaughter of almost the entire Yerevan leadership scraps any hopes for a possible breakthrough on the Karabakh issue at the OSCE round."
KAZAKHSTAN: "Redistribution of Caucasus"
Independent weekly Delovaya Nedelya commented (11/5): "The situation in the North Caucasus starts to draw new participants into the vortex of events. The United States and other Western countries managed to achieve an agreement with Russia in Oslo about the presence of OSCE missions in Chechnya, Ingushetiya, Dagestan and Northern Osetiya. In the background is Edward Shevarnadze's recent statement about Georgia's intention to join NATO, [which] speaks about the possibility...of Western military forces [there]."
LITHUANIA: "Chechnya--A Domestic Problem For Russia"
Weekly Lithuania's Echo (11/4) published a commentary backing Moscow's stand on Chechnya, which it described as a hotbed of terrorism. It recommended that Lithuanian politicians "not raise a hullabaloo over this problem and follow in the wake of the West's hypocritical policy."
FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA: "Gun Speech"
Independent, liberal Makedonija Denes (10/29) ran an editorial by Sasho Mitrov: "The action of the five gunslingers [in Yerevan] is highly counterproductive.... They suspended the very democracy they allegedly were fighting for."
MOLDOVA: "The U.S. Against Russia"
Political commentator Petru Bogatu told readers of the Christian Democratic Popular Front's Tara (11/3): "Today the United States no longer conceals that it has strategic interests in many territories that once were under Moscow's influence. Americans want to make it clear that the Transcaucasian region, for example, is a zone of priority importance for them. There is no doubt that this fact 'catalyzed' the recent political agitation in these territories. The Islamic world, realizing the United States' interests, understands that now is just the right moment to detach the Northern Caucasus from the Russian Federation.... The two attempts by Russian security to assassinate Georgian President Shevardnadze confirm this fact, since he is an ardent promoter of the West's interests in the Caucasus.... Some foreign observers think that those Armenian leaders, killed by terrorists, were also the victims of Russian-U.S. hostilities."
THE NETHERLANDS: "Chechnya As An Obstacle"
According to independent, influential NRC Handelsblad's editorial (11/2): "The [OSCE] on principal and practical grounds is not in favor of a further breakup of existing states into scarcely viable ethnically autonomous units, certainly not in a region of such international tension as the Caucasus. That the Kremlin wishes to retain the unity of the Russian Federation is not opposed. But the way in which the Russians conduct themselves is not acceptable. Their retort, that it concerns an internal question and that local terrorism must be combated, does not hold up vis-a-vis the obligations they have incurred as member of the OSCE. The OSCE, therefore, must not avoid a confrontation in Istanbul, unless it wishes to lose its credibility."
NORWAY: "A Cold Shoulder From The West"
Independent Dagbladet commented (11/5): "Vladmir Putin got the cold shoulder when he tried to state the reason for the Russian war in Chechnya during his meeting with Bill Clinton in Oslo."
POLAND: "Blood And Oil"
Witold Laskowski wrote in centrist weekly Wprost (11/3): "What motivated the assassins? The future of Nagorno-Karabakh, relations with Russia, or was it just settling an internal score in Armenia? Several days after the assassinations, no one in Yerevan, Washington, or Moscow can answer this question.... What is clear, however, is what is at stake in all the political plots, wars and assassinations in this part of the world. The Caucasus means Caspian oil, a gateway for Islamic expansion, and a region in which the fate of the CIS, dependent on Russia, hangs in the balance."
"Dancing With Superpowers"
Wojciech Jagielski judged in liberal Gazeta Wyborcza (10/28): "The shooting in Yerevan coincided with the visit of...Strobe Talbott.... By boldly entering the Caucasus, Russia's former domain, Washington was right to think that the pro-Russian policy of Yerevan constitutes the biggest obstacle to the United States' further expansion. Armenia will remain pro-Russian as long as it is on a war footing with Azerbaijan, which is supported by Turkey and the West. Thus Washington decided to help win peace in the Caucasus.... But to the leaders of both states, any attempt to settle on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has always been tantamount to suicide.... Paradoxically, the U.S. peace initiative, aimed at pushing Russia out of the Caucasus, can only strengthen Russia's presence in the region. If the Nagorno-Karabakh agreement is not signed, Armenia will remain pro-Russian, while Azerbaijan, increasingly resigned, will be less eager to loosen its ties with its former colonial power, Russia."
SPAIN: "Armenia And Chechnya: The Energy Bill"
Conservative ABC analyzed (10/29): "Caucasia separates the Caspian from the Black Sea, a situation that makes it an obligatory corridor for the energy resources located in and around the former, given that the United States...has ruled out a pipeline through Iran, Afghanistan or Pakistan. Therein lies the reason for all the interest being shown by the OSCE and the United States in deconflicting Armenia's relations with Azerbaijan.... Meanwhile, Russia's renewed interest in re-establishing control over Dagestan and Chechnya could well be linked to the construction of a pipeline to transport Azeri oil through those areas."
"Caucasia, A Black Hole"
Liberal El Pais commented (10/28): "As if the events in Chechnya were an insufficient reminder of the effects wrought by the collapse of the USSR...yesterday's bloody attack on the Armenian parliament...has only served to illustrate them once again.... Speculation regarding the massacre in Yerevan, which took place only hours after Strobe Talbott had left the city, centers around the advanced negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding the disputed enclave of Nagrono Karabakh...and the transport of oil and gas through the region.... Whatever the motive, what is most worrisome about the assault in Yerevan is the instability it extends from north to south Caucasia."
TURKEY: "Turkey, Russia And The Caucasus"
Semih Idiz judged in the tabloid Star (11/5): "Russia is determined to restore its credibility by strengthening its military presence in the turbulent Caucasus.... It has become clear that neither Russia nor Turkey can dominate the Caucasus alone; these two key players must establish a common understanding in the region. However, Moscow's vindictive attitude toward the Chechens diminishes hopes for such a joint approach."
"U.S. Indifference And Plans For Nagarno-Karabakh"
Necati Ozfatura wrote in conservative/religious Turkiye (11/2): "Russia is carrying out genocide in Chechnya...and destroying the balance of power in the Caucasus, and unfortunately both NATO and Turkey remain silent about what has been happening.... Because it hopes Russia will accept the American plan for Nagorno-Karabakh, the United States remains indifferent to Russia's occupation of Chechnya."
MIDDLE EAST
EGYPT: "West's Implicit Support"
Salama Ahmed Salama wrote in pro-government Ahram (10/28): "Ironically, it was the U.S. secretary of state, apparently acting as the guardian of Arab and Muslim interests, who deplored Russian attrocities in Grozny. The West and the international community would have done well to apply the same standards that justified the intervention of foreign troops in Kosovo and East Timor...in order to force the Russians to settle their dispute with Chechnya. As Russia stands on the verge of economic and political bankruptcy, its ability to wage this war shows that it enjoys the implicit support of the United States and Western Europe."
KUWAIT: "Why The Silence?"
Independent Al-Qabas (11/1) ran this piece by Abdul Hamid al-Bilali: "Our brethren in faith, the Chechens are slaughtered.... Is it acceptable that a whole nation be punished, just because of a handful of outlaws? Why is everyone silent about this massacre? Is it because the United States has given the Russians the green light to exterminate this nation in the name of terrorism? Or is it because the Arab countries are afraid of annoying the United States if they do condemn Russia's actions?"
EAST ASIA
CHINA: "A Fierce Contest Between Russia And U.S.-Led West"
Xu Hong said in Beijing Youth Daily (Beijing Qingnianbao, 11/5): "The contest revolving around the Chechnya issue between Russia and U.S.-led Western countries is becoming fiercer and fiercer. Russia's counterattack against illegitimate Chechen armed forces is a righteous move to safeguard territory integrity and social stability. Resorting to their old tricks, Western countries, however, have begun to impose pressure upon Russia, claiming Russian troops have created humanitarian disasters in Chechnya."
JAPAN: "Instability In The Caucasus Feared"
Liberal Mainichi editorialized (10/29): "It was only a day before his assassination that the late Prime Minister Sarkisian, together with President Kocharian, had discussed the Nagorno-Karabakh problem with Deputy Secretary of State Talbott. It is not yet certain whether the gunmen stormed the parliament and assassinated the officials to vent their frustrations over the present Armenian leadership or to obstruct a peaceful solution to the Nogorno-Karabakh dispute.... There is a possibility that the 'Armenian drama' will imperil moves leading to Nogorno-Karabakh peace."
SOUTH KOREA: "Endless Conflict"
Kim Jung-kon opined in moderate Hankook Ilbo (10/30): "From Chechnya to Armenia's parliament, a cycle of violence has swept the CIS.... The Karabakh issue is said to have prompted Sarkisian's assassination, but the region's grave economic situation was also clearly a factor.... Russia's own instability further aggravated confusion in the CIS. In reality, Moscow's role has been limited to interfering with the domestic affairs of CIS states."
VIETNAM: "Behind The Assassination Of Armenia's Prime Minister "
Minh Uyen commented in Sai Gon Giai Phong (Liberated Saigon-the mouthpiece of Ho Chi Minh City's Communist Party, 10/30): "The United States considers the Caucasus a region with strategic benefits for America.
"However, Armenia has been a close ally of Russia and the prime minister himself was a pro-Russian leader. This explains why Armenia has become a thorn in the side of those powers that want greater influence in central Asia.... Will Armenia be able to escape the traps laid by the outsiders to cause pressure on it? Otherwise, countries in the South Caucasus, such as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, will be bait for hungry hunters... An unstable Caucasus region is apparently a big disadvantage to Russia, but also an excuse for international intervention. This is what the outside powers desire, so that they can broaden their influence, cause disorder and then set up puppet governments in this region."
SOUTH ASIA
BANGLADESH: "Russian Barbarism In Chechnya"
Conservative, Islamic Bangla-language Sangram commented (11/3): "Although the United States is reportedly concerned about the Russian bombing in Chechnya, not a single Muslim in the world believes that the United States will take a determining role in favor of freedom for the Chechen people.... We fear that its reaction will be felt in the entire region of Central Asia and Afghanistan. A surprising indolence on the part of Western powers, especially the United States, has generated suspicion in the minds of the Muslims...[about] whether the United States' role as mediator on issues related to the Muslims will be acceptable in the future."
PAKISTAN: "War Without Cause"
An editorial in the centrist, national News held (10/28): "Russian leaders abruptly awakened to the discovery that it would take more than just military might to bring the republic to its knees.... Yeltsin, in desperate need of a military laurel...has turned a deaf ear to international advice for moderation and talks.... Needless bloodshed could have been avoided if the myopic Russian leadership could have read the writing on the wall in time."
SRI LANKA: " Chechnya"
Vernon L.B. Mendis asserted in the government-owned and controlled weekly Sunday Observer (10/31): "It is clear that having committed itself so far, Russia can hardly be expected to call off these operations short of attaining their desired objectives whatever they may be. It is unlikely that Russia would like Grozny to be another Stalingrad."
AFRICA
CAMEROON: "A Sign Of Despair"
The national, government-run Cameroon Tribune (10/28) carried a commentary by Abrahim Karche: "Armenia is in shock. There, just as in most of the newly independent states...political violence--often exacerbated by mafia collusion--has become commonplace.... This tragic incident is a sign of despair. There is a general malaise in Armenia due to the extreme poverty of a large part of the population."
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
ARGENTINA: "Doubts About The Massacre"
Narciso Binayan Carmona, daily-of-record La Nacion's international columnist, judged (11/1): "Before shooting Sarkisian, Unanian asked him 'Until when will you drink the blood of our people?'... Was he referring to corruption?... Was he referring to a negotiation leaving Karabakh in an ambiguous situation within Azerbaijan?... Was he referring to a surrender of Karabakh?...
"All kind of theories have been proposed: Russian conspiracy, Western conspiracy, mafia conspiracy and domestic political conspiracy."
BRAZIL: "Reasons Not Yet Clear, But Nationalism Looms Large"
Foreign Editor Jaime Spitzcovsky maintained in liberal Folha de Sao Paulo (10/28): "The reason for the...action in Yerevan is not yet clear, but the first hypothesis shows that the Armenian ultra-nationalists are unhappy with the reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbajan.... Azerbaijan...has international support because it produces oil. Under pressure from countries such as the United States and France, Armenian President Kocharian, a former leader of Nagorno-Karabah, met with his Azerbajan colleague Heidar Aliyev. Kocharian's pragmatism might have been the starting point of the reaction by the ultra-nationalists. The action is linked to other events in this region with 'a warlike tradition.' In Chechnya, there is the separatism with regard to Russia. In Georgia, Shevardnadze has already survived two assassination attempts and is confronting Abkhazian separatists."
MEXICO: "Hidden War Over Oil"
Left-of-center La Jornada opined (10/31): "The recent assassinations in the Armenian parliament...show the instability of the zone, which Washington's special envoy tries to reduce...in the hopes of detouring oil from its present route to Europe.... Yeltsin might be replaced by more nationalist, less docile figures. So caution is the order of the day for Washington and its allies, who close their eyes to the slaughter in Chechnya, and stab each other under the table over Russian oil."
##
For more information, please contact:
U.S. Department of State
Office of Research
Telephone: (202) 619-6511
10/29/99
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