DATE=11/18/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=IS INDONESIA DISINTEGRATING?
NUMBER=5-44789
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Indonesia's president is standing by his idea
of holding a referendum in the northern province of
Aceh. But critics fear such a step may lead to Aceh's
independence and a clamor by other provinces to
follow. Correspondent Stephanie Mann examines the
question of Indonesia's unity and the possibility of
its disintegration.
TEXT: Aceh is not the only part of Indonesia where
residents are unhappy with the government in Jakarta.
// OPT // The discontent in Aceh stems from Jakarta's
unfulfilled promises that the province would have more
autonomy. Aceh provides the central government with
significant revenues from its natural gas and oil
reserves, but it remains a very poor region. In
addition, most Acehnese are devout Muslims and would
like the creation of an Islamic state. But Indonesia,
the world's most populous Muslim country, has
consistently rejected that idea. Another major source
of discontent is the result of decades of brutality by
the Indonesian army as it tried to repress militant
Acehnese rebels. // END OPT //
Many Indonesian government officials and military
leaders worry that if Aceh is allowed to vote on its
future status, it would set off a chain reaction in
other places where separatist movements are active.
Indonesia specialist Donald Emmerson says there is a
relatively strong independence movement in Irian Jaya
in eastern Indonesia.
// EMMERSON ACT ONE //
Irian Jaya is the source of massive, massive
deposits of copper and gold. And . it is
tempting from the standpoint of the local
population . to imagine themselves an
independent country able to enjoy the returns on
those resources.
// END ACT //
Mr. Emmerson, a senior fellow at Stanford University's
Asia Pacific Research Center (in California), also
points to separatist sentiments in Riau province, on
the eastern coast of Sumatra. Riau includes the
Natuna islands in the South China Sea where vast
deposits of natural gas have been found. Other areas
where there has been separatist unrest include the
Maluku Islands and Makassar in Sulawesi.
Indonesia specialist Bill Liddle says before now he
never considered the possibility that Indonesia might
break apart.
// LIDDLE ACT ONE //
I have thought that in Indonesia, there is a
very strong commitment to the idea of Indonesia,
to the nationalist project of Indonesia. But we
are now seeing, not just in Aceh but in other
places as well, preparations for making similar
kinds of demands. And it is very easy to
imagine five or six separate states, maybe even
more than that.
// END ACT //
But Mr. Liddle, a political science professor at Ohio
State University, says the government of new president
Abdurrahman Wahid has an opportunity to prevent the
country's fragmentation.
Professor Emmerson says there seems to be overwhelming
support in Aceh for holding a referendum on
independence. He says the Indonesian government must
take some dramatic action to prevent Aceh's separation
from the country.
// EMMERSON ACT TWO //
It seems to me that Jakarta must really go
beyond palliatives. Yes, they must pull out
troops. Yes, they must stop the local
repression. Yes, they must transfer more value
back into Aceh. And yes, they must respect
Acehnese interest in implementing Islamic law.
// END ACT //
Professor Emmerson says Jakarta may have to go even
further and implement some form of federalism, which
would require constitutional changes.
Professor Liddle believes President Wahid is committed
to making such changes and decentralizing power that
was concentrated in Jakarta during President Suharto's
rule.
// BEGIN OPT //
// LIDDLE ACT TWO //
For example, there will be direct election of
governors, sources of income like that liquified
natural gas that is produced in Aceh - all of
these things will be decentralized to the
regions. The problem is that it may be too
little, too late - that during the Suharto years
the resentment built up so strongly that it is
now difficult to control just by giving
decentralization.
// END ACT //
Professor Emmerson says there are some things the
government can do right away -- like implementing a
new law that would transfer a larger share of the
revenues from Aceh back to the region.
// END OPT //
The disintegration of Indonesia is not inevitable, Mr.
Emmerson says, but time is running against the
government in Jakarta.
// EMMERSON ACT THREE //
What I worry about is that, as the symbol of the
referendum and independence is spread throughout
the population and sentiment turns increasingly
against Jakarta, that the room to maneuver, the
margin of concession that is available to the
central government is going to shrink. And to
the extent that happens, then, indeed we are in
for possible bloodshed and eventually,
conceivably, yes, the unraveling of the entire
republic.
// END ACT //
Professor Emmerson says because of Aceh, President
Wahid has not been able to enjoy a honeymoon (easy
period) at the start of his presidency. Moreover, he
says the outcome of the Aceh issue will help determine
the legitimacy of his government.
Professor Bill Liddle says President Wahid, a devout
Muslim with a reputation as a skillful conciliator,
may have more respect and influence in Aceh than his
predecessors did. And that may mean he is able to
succeed where others have not. (SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/RAE
18-Nov-1999 12:28 PM EDT (18-Nov-1999 1728 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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