DATE=11/10/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=ISLAMIST REVOLUTION
NUMBER=5-44747
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Is there a global Islamist threat similar to
the earlier Communist challenge? Not according to an
American scholar who contends Islamists are more
divided than unified, and just as likely to quarrel
among themselves as with the West. V-O-A's Ed Warner
reports his remarks at a recent Washington meeting
(11/10) and the response of another longtime analyst
of Muslim nations.
TEXT: Some Westerners fear the world is threatened by
a unified, cohesive revolutionary Islam. But there is
no such thing, asserts Mark Katz, Professor of
Government at George Mason University:
/// FIRST KATZ ACT ///
The international Islamic revolutionary movement
is in fact fraught with divisions. Cooperation
is more the exception than the opposite.
/// END ACT ///
In a talk at the Middle East Institute in Washington,
Professor Katz said there are some examples of
cooperation among Islamists: for example, Iran's
support of the Hezbollah in Lebanon and its
collaboration with Sudan, including military aid.
But he said there are far more instances of division
and rivalry. The Islamic-democratic government that
held power in Tajikistan in 1992 got no help from
other Islamists and soon fell to Moscow-backed
secularists.
Iran almost went to war with the strongly Islamist
Taleban in Afghanistan. In turn, the Taleban have
offered little aid to Islamists elsewhere.
In the Caucasus, Tehran supports Christian Armenia
against Muslim Azerbaijan. Professor Katz said Iran is
worried about the secessionist tendencies of its large
Azeri population:
/// SECOND KATZ ACT ///
Iran has no interest in a successful,
prosperous, independent Azerbaijan serving as a
magnet toward Azeris in Iran itself. They have a
strong interest in seeing Azerbaijan kept weak,
poor and riven by conflict, and they have acted
to do this.
/// END ACT ///
And that is the point, said Professor Katz. National
concerns usually override religious or ideological
ones. Gaining power and holding it remain paramount
for any group.
But if the west is not threatened by a unified
Islamist movement, Professor Katz said it is difficult
to exploit the differences among the various Islamist
powers. They are too antagonistic to the west to look
to it for help unless they are in dire trouble.
Graham Fuller, an analyst of the Middle East at the
Rand Corporation, agrees there are plenty of divisions
among Islamists, but certain causes can bring them
together:
/// FULLER ACT ///
There are many strong activists who are
something of a floating international body of
people who move from Islamic cause to Islamic
cause, wanting to fight to support the
Palestinians, the Chechens, the Kosovars, the
Bosnian Muslims, the Kashmiris.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Fuller says there is a growing Islamic
consciousness that has its positive aspects. Islamists
can unite in a struggle against a regime they consider
to be oppressive, corrupt and un-Islamic. (Signed)
NEB/EW/TVM/gm
10-Nov-1999 19:30 PM EDT (11-Nov-1999 0030 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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