DATE=11/10/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=ARMENIAN AFTERMATH
NUMBER=5-44744
BYLINE=ALLISON LYNCH
DATELINE=NEW YORK
CONTENT=
VOICED BY: Barbara Schoetzau
INTRO: It has been two weeks since the Armenian Prime
Minister and Speaker of Parliament were assassinated
(10/27) in Yerevan. V-O-A's Allison Lynch spoke in New
York with two former Armenian officials about the
current situation in their country and prepared this
report.
TEXT: The deaths of eight Armenian politicians,
including Prime Minister Vazgen Sarkisian and Speaker
of Parliament Karen Demirchian, have stunned and
saddened the country.
The crisis is seen by analysts as a test of the
resilience of the young state's political institutions.
And so far, they are withstanding the shock, according
to Arman Grigorian, a policy adviser in the
administration of former President Ter-Petrosian. Mr.
Grigorian is currently teaching at Rutgers University
in the state of New Jersey.
/// FIRST GRIGORIAN ACTUALITY ///
A huge political vacuum was created in Armenia.
And my main fear was that filling that vacuum
would lead to a lot of undesirable and dangerous
clashes. So far, it is quite reassuring to see
that the political elites and institutions in the
country have matured enough for everybody to be
committed to constitutional and legal means of
overcoming the political crisis. It is too soon
to be absolutely sure about that, but so far
that's where the trend points.
/// END ACTUALITY ///
Another former Armenian official, Levon Zourabian, who
served as press secretary and assistant to former
president Ter-Petrosian, believes democratic
institutions in Armenia may emerge strengthened after
the loss of the two leaders.
/// FIRST ZOURABIAN ACTUALITY ///
They were elected overwhelmingly just four months
ago. And political stability in the country was
based on these personalities. Whoever did this
act calculated that this (will be) a blow to
political stability in Armenia. If the
constitution survives and if institutions
survive, that will only strengthen Armenian
statehood.
/// END ACTUALITY ///
Former Armenian policy adviser Grigorian adds that
mourning in Armenia over the leaders' deaths has
transcended political affiliation.
/// SECOND GRIGORIAN ACTUALITY ///
This is actually the first time that most
Armenians have been quite united in their views
on something and most people are really outraged.
/// END ACTUALITY ///
Allegations of external involvement in the shootings
have been published in the press, but Mr. Grigorian
believes the sources of this violence are more likely
domestic.
/// THIRD GRIGORIAN ACTUALITY ///
Some evidence has started to come out that
points to a larger scheme. It is too soon to
speculate. What can be said with sadness and
certainty is that unfortunately there are
politicians in Armenia who have been saying
loudly and clearly since the country became
independent that if they cannot affect
government's policies through legal and
constitutional means, they reserve the right to
solve these issues violently.
/// END ACTUALITY ///
Despite Armenia's management of the crisis, experts
say, the shooting could affect several critical issues
on the government's agenda, such as negotiations over
Nagorno-Karabakh, the contested enclave in Azerbaijan.
While both sides seem close to consensus on the basic
principles of an agreement, Mr. Grigorian says, an
extra obstacle may have been inadvertently created.
/// FOURTH GRIGORIAN ACTUALITY ///
For momentous decisions, you obviously need very
strong leadership that can take political risks,
that can muster enough political courage. Vazgen
Sarkisian's and Demirchian's removal might make
it a little more difficult.
/// END ACTUALITY ///
According to Levon Zourabian, who is now at New York's
Columbia University, the newly appointed leadership may
face an additional challenge in the negotiations, which
have been coordinated by the independent Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe, or O-S-C-E.
/// SECOND ZOURABIAN ACTUALITY ///
There is one thing that can really impede the
peace solution, which is that some political
forces in Azerbaijan or in the countries which
are mediators of this O-S-C-E Minsk Group process
can reconsider their approaches to the solution
of Nagorno-Karabakh based on the weakening of
Armenia. One thing that is very important is for
all the parties involved to really apply all the
efforts to maintain negotiations and the process
to come to its conclusion.
/// END ACTUALITY ///
After eight years of turbulent independence, says Mr.
Zourabian, Armenia's full political, social, and
economic development will only be realized when the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved. (Signed)
NEB/AJL/LSF/TVM/gm
10-Nov-1999 17:15 PM EDT (10-Nov-1999 2215 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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